The Journal: Assad's Regime Falls. What's Next For Syria?

Podcast Information:

• Title: The Journal
• Host/Author: The Wall Street Journal & Gimlet
• Description: The most important stories about money, business, and power. Hosted by Kate Linebaugh and Ryan Knutson, with Jessica Mendoza. The Journal is a co-production of Spotify and The Wall Street Journal.
• Episode: Assad's Regime Falls. What's Next For Syria?
• Release Date: December 9, 2024

Introduction

In the landmark episode titled "Assad's Regime Falls. What's Next For Syria?", hosted by Jessica Mendoza and featuring insights from chief foreign affairs correspondent Yaris Yaroslav Trofimov, The Journal delves into the dramatic collapse of Bashar Al Assad's nearly 13-year-long dictatorship in Syria. The episode explores the immediate aftermath of Assad’s fall, the shifting power dynamics in the Middle East, and the uncertain future awaiting Syria.

The Fall of Assad’s Regime

The episode opens with vivid imagery of Syrian streets celebrating the overthrow of Assad. Yaroslav Trofimov (00:33) describes the regime as:

“a system that was built on murder, torture, brutality and repression that had few parallels in the modern world.”

The sudden collapse marks an end to one of the Middle East's darkest chapters, but leaves many questions about the region's future.

Rapid Advancement of Rebel Forces

Trofimov explains how the rebel group, Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammed Al Jalani, swiftly overtook key cities, including Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and ultimately Damascus:

“They started pushing, they realized that the Syrian army was unable to hold the line. And it was basically like a knife through butter” (03:14).

The rebels' rapid progress was facilitated by the weakening of Assad's traditional allies, Russia and Iran, who were preoccupied with other conflicts.

The Rise of HTS and Abu Mohammed Al Jalani

Background of Abu Mohammed Al Jalani

Abu Mohammed Al Jalani is a central figure in this transition. Trofimov outlines his evolution:

“He became more moderate in his politics, but also the main reason is that he wanted to focus on Syria and fighting the Assad regime in Syria” (04:47).

Originally affiliated with Al Qaeda's Nusra Front and the Islamic State (ISIS), Jalani distanced himself from global jihadist agendas to concentrate solely on the Syrian conflict.

Shift Towards Moderation

Jalani’s departure from both ISIS and Al Qaeda was driven by his desire to:

• Avoid Global Jihad: Rejecting plans to launch attacks in the West.
• Focus on Nationalism: Concentrating on combating Assad’s regime within Syria.

This strategic pivot led to HTS being perceived as a slightly more moderate force compared to its predecessor organizations, although it remains on the U.S. Terrorist list.

External Influences and Their Impact

Decline of Russia and Iran’s Support

Trofimov highlights the critical role of external powers in Assad’s downfall:

“Russia didn't have any planes or troops to spare... Hezbollah is just a shadow of its former self” (07:11).

With Russia embroiled in the Ukraine conflict and Iran dealing with internal and regional pressures, their capacity to support Assad waned significantly.

Turkey’s Strategic Victory

Turkey emerges as a key player benefiting from Assad’s fall:

“It's a major strategic victory for Turkey because the rebels in power in Damascus now are at least friendly to Turkey” (13:36).

Turkey's support for HTS has expanded its influence across the Middle East, positioning it as a significant regional authority post-Assad.

Power Dynamics in the Middle East Post-Assad

Winners and Losers

Trofimov conducts a geopolitical analysis, identifying key beneficiaries and those negatively impacted by Assad’s ousting:

• Russia: Declared a loser, undermining its reputation as a reliable ally.

  “Russia didn’t come to bail [Assad] out. And so this really punctures the myth of Russia being a reliable ally...” (12:35).

• Iran: Also a loser, losing critical influence and a strategic land bridge.

  “Iran now loses the land bridge that was so crucial for its ability to apply Hezbollah in Lebanon” (13:28).

• Turkey: Positioned as a winner, expanding its influence and securing friendly governance in Damascus.

  “It's a major strategic victory for Turkey...” (13:36).

• Israel: Faces uncertainty with Assad’s fall, adjusting its military strategy in the Golan Heights.

  “Israel in recent hours has expanded its occupation zone in the Golan Heights...” (14:02).

U.S. Involvement and International Reactions

The United States remains involved, maintaining a military presence and launching airstrikes to prevent ISIS resurgence:

“We will engage with all Syrian groups... to establish a transition away from the Assad regime toward independent, sovereign Syria...” (15:07).

In contrast, President-elect Trump advocates for non-intervention:

“This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved.” (15:32).

Future Scenarios for Syria

Best-Case Scenario

Trofimov outlines a hopeful yet challenging future:

“A peaceful Syria that will have an Islamist led, but more or less tolerant authoritarian regime... and that will not be embroiled in wars with its neighbors such as Israel.” (16:11).

While a liberal democracy is considered ideal, it remains optimistic and unlikely in the short term.

Worst-Case Scenario

The specter of renewed conflict looms large:

“A renewed civil war and the return of the most violent and extremist movements... Syria's return to being an epicenter of global terrorism.” (16:50).

The potential resurgence of groups like ISIS could plunge Syria back into chaos.

Impact on Syrian Citizens

For ordinary Syrians, the collapse of Assad's regime symbolizes a newfound freedom:

“This is really, for the first time in their lifetime, a moment of freedom... people no longer have to be as afraid as they used to be their entire life.” (17:20).

Despite the political uncertainties, the end of decades-long repression offers a glimmer of hope for stability and rebuilding.

Conclusion

The fall of Assad's regime marks a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern politics, reshaping alliances and power structures. While the immediate celebration among Syrians signals a yearning for peace and autonomy, the geopolitical landscape remains fraught with challenges. The future of Syria hinges on the ability of new leaders like HTS to govern inclusively, the role of external powers in supporting or destabilizing the region, and the resilience of Syrians determined to rebuild their country. As highlighted by Jessica Mendoza and Yaris Yaroslav Trofimov, the world watches closely to see whether Syria can transition from years of conflict to a stable and prosperous nation.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Yaris Yaroslav Trofimov (00:33): “...a system that was built on murder, torture, brutality and repression that had few parallels in the modern world.”

• Yaris Yaroslav Trofimov (04:47): “He became more moderate in his politics, but also the main reason is that he wanted to focus on Syria and fighting the Assad regime in Syria.”

• Yaris Yaroslav Trofimov (12:35): “This really punctures the myth of Russia being a reliable ally and a partner.”

• Yaris Yaroslav Trofimov (16:50): “A renewed civil war and the return of the most violent and extremist movements... Syria's return to being an epicenter of global terrorism.”

• Yaris Yaroslav Trofimov (17:20): “This is really, for the first time in their lifetime, a moment of freedom... people no longer have to be as afraid as they used to be their entire life.”

This episode of The Journal provides a comprehensive analysis of Syria's turning point, blending on-the-ground insights with expert geopolitical commentary to offer listeners a nuanced understanding of the region's evolving dynamics.