Assad's Regime Falls. What's Next For Syria?

Summary

The Journal: Assad's Regime Falls. What's Next For Syria?

Podcast Information:

• Title: The Journal
• Host/Author: The Wall Street Journal & Gimlet
• Description: The most important stories about money, business, and power. Hosted by Kate Linebaugh and Ryan Knutson, with Jessica Mendoza. The Journal is a co-production of Spotify and The Wall Street Journal.
• Episode: Assad's Regime Falls. What's Next For Syria?
• Release Date: December 9, 2024

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Introduction

In the landmark episode titled "Assad's Regime Falls. What's Next For Syria?", hosted by Jessica Mendoza and featuring insights from chief foreign affairs correspondent Yaris Yaroslav Trofimov, The Journal delves into the dramatic collapse of Bashar Al Assad's nearly 13-year-long dictatorship in Syria. The episode explores the immediate aftermath of Assad’s fall, the shifting power dynamics in the Middle East, and the uncertain future awaiting Syria.

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The Fall of Assad’s Regime

The episode opens with vivid imagery of Syrian streets celebrating the overthrow of Assad. Yaroslav Trofimov (00:33) describes the regime as:

“a system that was built on murder, torture, brutality and repression that had few parallels in the modern world.”

The sudden collapse marks an end to one of the Middle East's darkest chapters, but leaves many questions about the region's future.

Rapid Advancement of Rebel Forces

Trofimov explains how the rebel group, Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammed Al Jalani, swiftly overtook key cities, including Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and ultimately Damascus:

“They started pushing, they realized that the Syrian army was unable to hold the line. And it was basically like a knife through butter” (03:14).

The rebels' rapid progress was facilitated by the weakening of Assad's traditional allies, Russia and Iran, who were preoccupied with other conflicts.

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The Rise of HTS and Abu Mohammed Al Jalani

Background of Abu Mohammed Al Jalani

Abu Mohammed Al Jalani is a central figure in this transition. Trofimov outlines his evolution:

“He became more moderate in his politics, but also the main reason is that he wanted to focus on Syria and fighting the Assad regime in Syria” (04:47).

Originally affiliated with Al Qaeda's Nusra Front and the Islamic State (ISIS), Jalani distanced himself from global jihadist agendas to concentrate solely on the Syrian conflict.

Shift Towards Moderation

Jalani’s departure from both ISIS and Al Qaeda was driven by his desire to:

• Avoid Global Jihad: Rejecting plans to launch attacks in the West.
• Focus on Nationalism: Concentrating on combating Assad’s regime within Syria.

This strategic pivot led to HTS being perceived as a slightly more moderate force compared to its predecessor organizations, although it remains on the U.S. Terrorist list.

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External Influences and Their Impact

Decline of Russia and Iran’s Support

Trofimov highlights the critical role of external powers in Assad’s downfall:

“Russia didn't have any planes or troops to spare... Hezbollah is just a shadow of its former self” (07:11).

With Russia embroiled in the Ukraine conflict and Iran dealing with internal and regional pressures, their capacity to support Assad waned significantly.

Turkey’s Strategic Victory

Turkey emerges as a key player benefiting from Assad’s fall:

“It's a major strategic victory for Turkey because the rebels in power in Damascus now are at least friendly to Turkey” (13:36).

Turkey's support for HTS has expanded its influence across the Middle East, positioning it as a significant regional authority post-Assad.

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Power Dynamics in the Middle East Post-Assad

Winners and Losers

Trofimov conducts a geopolitical analysis, identifying key beneficiaries and those negatively impacted by Assad’s ousting:

• Russia: Declared a loser, undermining its reputation as a reliable ally.

  “Russia didn’t come to bail [Assad] out. And so this really punctures the myth of Russia being a reliable ally...” (12:35).

• Iran: Also a loser, losing critical influence and a strategic land bridge.

  “Iran now loses the land bridge that was so crucial for its ability to apply Hezbollah in Lebanon” (13:28).

• Turkey: Positioned as a winner, expanding its influence and securing friendly governance in Damascus.

  “It's a major strategic victory for Turkey...” (13:36).

• Israel: Faces uncertainty with Assad’s fall, adjusting its military strategy in the Golan Heights.

  “Israel in recent hours has expanded its occupation zone in the Golan Heights...” (14:02).

U.S. Involvement and International Reactions

The United States remains involved, maintaining a military presence and launching airstrikes to prevent ISIS resurgence:

“We will engage with all Syrian groups... to establish a transition away from the Assad regime toward independent, sovereign Syria...” (15:07).

In contrast, President-elect Trump advocates for non-intervention:

“This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved.” (15:32).

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Future Scenarios for Syria

Best-Case Scenario

Trofimov outlines a hopeful yet challenging future:

“A peaceful Syria that will have an Islamist led, but more or less tolerant authoritarian regime... and that will not be embroiled in wars with its neighbors such as Israel.” (16:11).

While a liberal democracy is considered ideal, it remains optimistic and unlikely in the short term.

Worst-Case Scenario

The specter of renewed conflict looms large:

“A renewed civil war and the return of the most violent and extremist movements... Syria's return to being an epicenter of global terrorism.” (16:50).

The potential resurgence of groups like ISIS could plunge Syria back into chaos.

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Impact on Syrian Citizens

For ordinary Syrians, the collapse of Assad's regime symbolizes a newfound freedom:

“This is really, for the first time in their lifetime, a moment of freedom... people no longer have to be as afraid as they used to be their entire life.” (17:20).

Despite the political uncertainties, the end of decades-long repression offers a glimmer of hope for stability and rebuilding.

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Conclusion

The fall of Assad's regime marks a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern politics, reshaping alliances and power structures. While the immediate celebration among Syrians signals a yearning for peace and autonomy, the geopolitical landscape remains fraught with challenges. The future of Syria hinges on the ability of new leaders like HTS to govern inclusively, the role of external powers in supporting or destabilizing the region, and the resilience of Syrians determined to rebuild their country. As highlighted by Jessica Mendoza and Yaris Yaroslav Trofimov, the world watches closely to see whether Syria can transition from years of conflict to a stable and prosperous nation.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Yaris Yaroslav Trofimov (00:33): “...a system that was built on murder, torture, brutality and repression that had few parallels in the modern world.”

• Yaris Yaroslav Trofimov (04:47): “He became more moderate in his politics, but also the main reason is that he wanted to focus on Syria and fighting the Assad regime in Syria.”

• Yaris Yaroslav Trofimov (12:35): “This really punctures the myth of Russia being a reliable ally and a partner.”

• Yaris Yaroslav Trofimov (16:50): “A renewed civil war and the return of the most violent and extremist movements... Syria's return to being an epicenter of global terrorism.”

• Yaris Yaroslav Trofimov (17:20): “This is really, for the first time in their lifetime, a moment of freedom... people no longer have to be as afraid as they used to be their entire life.”

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This episode of The Journal provides a comprehensive analysis of Syria's turning point, blending on-the-ground insights with expert geopolitical commentary to offer listeners a nuanced understanding of the region's evolving dynamics.

Transcript

[Jessica Mendoza]

Yesterday in Syria, after nearly 13 years of civil war, rebel forces took control of the capital, Damascus. For decades, the country had been under the dictatorship of the Assad family. Here's our chief foreign affairs correspondent, Yaris Yaroslav Trofimov.

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

Well, the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad has collapsed in a matter of days in a stunning collapse of a system that was built on murder, torture, brutality and repression that had few parallels in the modern world. So really, this closes the chapter on some of the darkest periods in the history of the Middle East.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Footage showed Syrians celebrating in the streets, prisoners walking out of confinement, and residents standing on a toppled statue of Assad's father. At the same time, it remains unknown how the fall of Assad could reverberate across the Middle east and the world. What are the big questions you have today about the future of Syria?

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

Well, the question is obviously, what next? There are two ways it can end. It can either end in a relative peace with the rebels agreeing to basically cooperate and avoiding another round of civil war, or they could go at each other again and plunge the country into a new round of disaster.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Welcome to the Journal, our show about money, business and power. I'm Jessica Mendoza. It's Monday, December 9th. Coming up on the show, a historic moment for Syria and a realignment of power in the Middle East.

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[Jessica Mendoza]

The largest of the rebel groups that stormed the Syrian capital over the weekend is called Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, also known as hts. The group's leader is Abu Mohammed Al Jalani. When did you first encounter the name Abu Mohammed al Jalani?

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

He became reasonably well known about 10 years ago when he was leading an affiliate of Al Qaeda called the Nusra Front. As a young man In 2003, he boarded a bus from Damascus to Baghdad and became an insurgent against American forces in Iraq. At the time. There, he joined the nascent Islamic State.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Jolani later returned to his homeland, Syria, with the blessing of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi. Jelani's mission was to establish ISIS there.

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

But then once in Syria, he broke with Al Baghdadi because He didn't share some of his murderous ideas, such as the need to slaughter all the Shiites, and so decided to move to a slightly more moderate Al Qaeda.

[Jessica Mendoza]

I see. Okay.

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

Then he traveled further and further along this road to moderation. And in doing so, he rejected the basic principle of Al Qaeda and its Islamic State, that the big fight is the fight for a global Islamic caliphate and against America and the West. So at the time, he made headlines by saying, look, our fight is in Syria for Syria, and we don't care about America. America is not our enemy.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Got it. So just to make sure we have the timeline clear, he started out with Islamic State, he broke with them, and then joined Al Qaeda, and then he broke with Al Qaeda as well. And so.

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

Correct.

[Jessica Mendoza]

And the reason for that is because he just became increasingly moderate in his politics.

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

Well, he became more moderate in his politics, but also the main reason is that he wanted to focus on Syria and fighting the Assad regime in Syria. He wasn't interested in Al Qaeda's or Islamic State's global ideology. The idea of conquering the west, blowing up civilian targets in European cities, that was not his fight.

[Jessica Mendoza]

During the civil war that started in 2011, Jelani's group fought against ISIS in Al Qaeda. But it's unclear if Jelani's turn to moderation is genuine or if he's trying to appease other Syrians and the west as he pursues power. Jelani remains on a US Terrorist list along with his organization, hts. The militant leader has said his focus was Syria and fighting. The Assad regime saw some of the.

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

Most terrific violence in recent history, with hundreds of thousands of people killed, millions having to flee the country. Bashar Alas's regime used chemical weapons against the civilians, barrel bombs thrown at hospitals, schools, mass displacement, and violence that then gave rise to some of the most horrific Islamist terrorism since 2016.

[Jessica Mendoza]

The civil war had been at a standstill, with Assad's government holding onto power mainly through the support of two key allies, Russia and Iran. Syria holds strategic value. It's a land bridge that links Iran to Hezbollah, the militant group in Lebanon. And Russia has important military bases in Syria, which gives it access to the region. But recently, both Russia and Iran have been embroiled in other conflicts.

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

These two pillars of the regime were no longer there because, on one hand, Russia was distracted by the war in Ukraine. It had to pull out its troops. And then Hezbollah was decimated in last several months by the war with Israel, in which pretty much the entire leadership of the organization was killed. By Israeli airstrikes. And then the surviving fighters had to come back to Lebanon from Syria because they were facing an Israeli ground invasion.

[Jessica Mendoza]

So basically, Assad's biggest international backers, Iran and Russia, are distracted. They have wars that they have to deal with elsewhere.

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

Well, they're not just distracted. They were weakened and no longer had the ability, if they wanted, to come back and help him. You know, Russia didn't have any planes or troops to spare. I mean, they cannot expel Ukraine troops from Russian territory since August. And Hezbollah is just a shadow of its former self. It's unable to help itself in Lebanon, let alone go to a foreign country to help Assad.

[Jessica Mendoza]

So how did Jelani and the rebels take advantage of that?

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

Well, the rebels had been planned. Their initial plan was to just push back the front line and to regain some of the countryside near Aleppo. But as they started pushing, they realized that the Syrian army was unable to hold the line. And it was basically like a knife through butter.

[Jessica Mendoza]

In a matter of days, the rebels took Aleppo, then they turned south, taking more territory, the city of Hama, then Homs, and finally they marched on the capital, Damascus.

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

And so they're basically advancing as fast as their trucks could drive.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Wow. Why didn't Assad have the military might to hold off the rebels on his own? I mean, he'd been in power for so long.

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

Well, you know, it was a terrible regime that wasn't popular. I mean, it was extremely corrupt. So people who were in his military were forcefully recruited. And let's remember that he was increasingly seen as representing just the Alawite minority, which is only about 10% of the population, whereas the rebels come from the Sunni Arab majority.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Right, right.

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

Well, then basically it was the same scenario we have seen in other situations. These regimes crumble very quickly once it becomes clear that nobody wants to fight for them. It's a very, it's a self fulfilling prophecy because once commanders see that other commanders are surrendering and that the, you know, the other cities are falling, they all make calculations. Why would I die for a doomed cause? So at the end of the day, nobody wanted to die for him.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Even as it became clear that his forces were getting hollowed out, Assad stood firm. He announced he would give an address to the nation on Saturday, but it never happened.

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

What we know is that he left Damascus either late on Saturday evening, on the first early hours of Sunday morning, likely to a Russian military base, and from then on to Russia itself. And we have heard from the Russian presidential spokesman that President Putin himself had authorized his asylum in Russia.

[Jessica Mendoza]

And now Assad's fall has created a new power dynamic in the Middle East. With winners and losers. That's next.

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[Jessica Mendoza]

Over the weekend, a group of rebels appeared on Syrian state television. In an address, they called for a newly liberated country, they said, quote, long live Syria, free and proud for all Syrians of all sects. What happens to Syria now? Like, what indications do we have about how the rebels might govern?

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

The indications of them governing are positive so far. I mean, they named a moderate politician as a figurehead prime minister. So Jawlani himself is not taking the reins of power. And the edicts they issued are maintain tolerance. They're not forced women to wear the hijab, head covering, respect minorities. But it's still very, very early days.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Can the alliance between the rebel groups hold now that Assad is gone?

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

Well, that is certainly what Syrians expect. And I think after 13 years of civil war, there is a lot of pressure to avoid further bloodshed. But let's also not forget that the whole reason why Syria descended into the civil war is because outside powers were all back in their own rival factions and really fighting their own proxy wars in Syria. And these outside powers, like Turkey, like Saudi Arabia, like Iran, like Russia, like Israel, are still, to one extent or another, are still going to be interested in what happens in Syria.

[Jessica Mendoza]

So I want to talk more about those outside powers. I kind of want to do a winners and losers in geopolitics with you like a lightning round. So Russia, winner or loser in this?

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

And why Russia is definitely a loser. Russian officials, Putin himself love to say that unlike America, Russia can be relied upon. America abandons its allies in Afghanistan, look what happened in Vietnam. Whereas Russia will do anything to preserve its clients, its vassals. And it went to war to make sure that Assad doesn't fall. Well, Assad has fallen and Russia didn't come to bail him out. And so this really punctures the myth of Russia being a reliable ally and a partner. And Iran, Iran is the biggest loser because Iran, unlike Russia, doesn't have any ties to anyone. And Government in Syria. Now, the Iranian embassy was ransacked, the Russian was not. And Iran now loses the land bridge that was so crucial for its ability to apply Hezbollah in Lebanon.

[Jessica Mendoza]

What about Turkey? Like Turkey is a supporter of Jalani and the hts. Is Turkey a winner or a loser?

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

It's a major strategic victory for Turkey because the rebels in power in Damascus now are at least friendly to Turkey, if not directly assisted by Turkey. And it expands Turkey's authorities throughout the Middle East.

[Jessica Mendoza]

And then there's Israel. So in the last 24 hours, Israel pushed into the Golan Heights, which is the demilitarized zone on their border with Syria. What's at stake for Israel?

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

Well, Israel, you know, they lost the devil they know, and they're getting the devil they don't know. I better know if the devil they don't know is worse or better. Obviously, the Islamists in charge in Syria also sympathize with the Palestinians, sympathize with Hamas, and are no friends of Israel. But does this mean they will actually take action against Israel? Will they allow attacks against Israel from Syria? And so it's all one of these many questions and one of the reasons why Israel in recent hours has expanded its occupation zone in the Golan Heights and has been launching airstrike after airstrike to basically take out all the heavy weapons that the Syrian rebels will inherit from the regime.

[Jessica Mendoza]

The US Says it will continue to support the Syrian people. The military keeps a force of around 900 troops in southeast Syria to defend against ISIS fighters. And on Sunday, President Biden launched airstrikes on ISIS targets in Syria. He said they were intended to ensure that ISIS does not take advantage of the power vacuum.

[President Biden]

We will engage with all Syrian groups, including within the process led by the United nations, to establish a transition away from the Assad regime toward independent, sovereign. An independent, independent, I might say it again, sovereign Syria with a new constitution, a new government that serves all Syrians. And this process will be determined by the Syrian people themselves.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Over the weekend, President elect Trump posted on social media, quote, this is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved. And so in broad terms, how does the fall of Assad change the map of power globally?

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

Well, globally we're seeing that the axis of Russia, Iran, there is also liege with China. North Korea has suffered a setback. It shows that this axis is not always winning and it can be defeated.

[Jessica Mendoza]

So what are the best and the worst case scenarios for Syria going forward?

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

I think, well, the best case scenario, there is liberal democracy in Syria, but It's also not a very realistic scenario at this stage. I think the more realistic scenario to which a lot of Syria's neighbors and western countries aspire is a peaceful Syria that will have an Islamist led, but more or less tolerant authoritarian regime along the lengths of many other such regimes in the Middle east that will be at peace and that will allow the millions of Syrian refugees to come back from Europe and Turkey and other countries and that will not be embroiled in wars with its neighbors such as Israel.

[Jessica Mendoza]

And the worst case scenario?

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

Well, the worst case scenario is a renewed civil war and the return of the most violent and extremist movements we have seen in the region. A new incarnation of Islamic State which is still lurking in parts of the Syrian desert, and Syria's return to being an epicenter of global terrorism.

[Jessica Mendoza]

What about for average Syrians? You know, what does this change in power mean for the people in Syria who've seen years of war and oppression.

[Yaroslav Trofimov]

But I think for average Syrians living who used to live in regime controlled areas, this is really, for the first time in their lifetime, a moment of freedom. I mean, as much as we can focus on all the troubles that Syria can face in the future, I mean, this is a historical moment. This is a moment where one of the worst regimes on earth has fallen and people no longer have to be as afraid as they used to be their entire life.

[Jessica Mendoza]

That's all for today. Monday, December 9th the Journal is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. Additional reporting in this episode from Isabel Coles, Stephen Kalin, Jared Molson. Summer Said, thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.