The Journal. — "China and the U.S. Are in a Race for AI Supremacy"
Date: December 2, 2025
Hosts: Ryan Knutson and Jessica Mendoza
Guest: Josh Chin, Wall Street Journal reporter
Overview
This episode explores the escalating competition between the U.S. and China over artificial intelligence (AI), likening it to a new "Cold War." Hosts and guest Josh Chin examine how both superpowers are vying for AI supremacy, what strategies each side is deploying, the technological and geopolitical implications, and the risks that safety could be sacrificed in this high-stakes race. The narrative is rich with historical parallels, economic insights, and expert perspectives.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. A New Tech Cold War
- The episode opens by drawing striking historical parallels between the current U.S.–China AI rivalry and the tech races of the Cold War (nuclear weapons, space, and computing).
- Quote: “You have two rival superpowers who are competing in technology with really, really broad potential applications.” — Josh Chin [00:24]
- The fundamental point: which nation leads AI will reap vast economic, military, scientific, and geopolitical rewards.
2. Early Chinese Focus: Computer Vision & Surveillance
- China’s initial AI ambitions (2017 onwards) centered around computer vision, notably facial recognition, heavily linked to the nation’s surveillance apparatus.
- Quote: “China…has this huge surveillance state...much faster way to kind of track down people of interest, as they call them, which would be criminals, political dissidents, that sort of thing.” — Josh Chin [04:08]
3. The ChatGPT Shock: U.S. Takes the Lead
- OpenAI’s launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 was a pivotal moment, described as a "Sputnik" moment for China, spurring a fundamental pivot to large language models (LLMs) globally.
- Quote: “The AI landscape as we know it was rocked and forever changed...by a single chatbot, ChatGPT.” — Josh Chin [04:32]
- U.S. tech companies (OpenAI, Google, Meta, Anthropic) grabbed the global lead, outpacing Chinese rivals.
4. China’s Strategy: State Mobilization and Investment
- In response, Beijing launched a nationwide campaign, pressuring its tech sector, offering subsidies, and rapidly building infrastructure to jumpstart AI progress.
- Build-out: Computing clusters in regions with abundant renewable energy, aiming for a “national cloud.”
- Local competition: Local governments compete for central favor, resulting in both waste and bursts of competitiveness.
- Quote: “The local governments are going to the companies in their areas and really trying to get them going on AI efforts.” — Josh Chin [06:38]
5. Breakthrough: The Rise of Deepseek
- 2025 saw Deepseek, a Chinese AI startup, outperform ChatGPT and top app store rankings, a shock to U.S. markets.
- Quote: “Deepseek...managed to build a model that was basically almost as good as the best model that OpenAI had.” — Josh Chin [08:02]
- Their innovation: achieving comparable performance to U.S. models with far less computing power and budget, which raised questions about efficiency and necessity of U.S. spending.
- Marc Andreessen (not present, paraphrased): Called Deepseek’s accomplishment “one of the most impressive” he’d seen.
6. The Remaining Gap: Advanced Computer Chips
- Despite advances, China continues to lag in access to next-generation AI chips, a bottleneck enforced by U.S. export controls.
- Strategy: Huawei is spearheading efforts by linking (swarming) millions of lower-quality chips to approximate the power of fewer, more advanced U.S. chips.
- Quote: “What Huawei is doing is trying to link together as many as a million of its chips...a strategy...referred to as swarms to beat the titan.” — Josh Chin [12:15]
- This is an example of China leveraging scale to compensate for quality gaps.
7. U.S. Response: State Capitalism Moves
- The U.S., in return, emulates aspects of China’s state support with government investments (e.g., CHIPS act, public stakes in chip firms).
- Quote: “The models are sort of converging somewhat, although...there is a much bigger role obviously for private enterprise and private capital in the U.S.” — Josh Chin [13:10]
8. Safety and Regulation: A Race to the Bottom?
- Both countries loosen AI regulations for speed.
- In the U.S., Silicon Valley uses “competition with China” as a rationale for minimal regulation.
- In China, safety “testing” is being streamlined, particularly for companies with good government track records, focusing mostly on political content rather than technical or social risks.
- Quote: "This competition feels likely to fuel a lot of innovation on both sides and that could be a good thing... The risk though, is that all this competition could instead accelerate the arrival of all the harms people worry AI could cause.” — Josh Chin and Ryan Knutson [14:47-14:56]
9. AI Risks: From Bioweapons to Paperclip Maximizers
- Risks include use of AI by non-state actors for bioweapons, acceleration of deadlier warfare, and existential fears about superintelligent AIs.
- Quote: “You have the potential, for example, for non state actors to ask AI to help them build bioweapons…there’s this fear of how AI could make warfare faster and deadlier.” — Josh Chin [15:04]
- Humorous moment: “Or maybe an AI superintelligence turns the entire earth into paperclips. Sorry, that was an AI joke.” — Ryan Knutson [15:16]
10. Who Will Win the AI Race?
- Josh Chin’s prediction: The U.S. is likely to maintain its lead for now, unless China cracks the chip bottleneck or finds other ways to leap ahead, as Deepseek did.
- Quote: “If China figures out how to close the chip gap or finds new ways to do more with less...then it’s totally plausible the U.S. could fall behind. I think closing the chip gap is a major hurdle...But like we said, China’s surprised people before.” — Josh Chin [15:45]
Memorable Quotes & Moments
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On the scope of the AI race:
"Whichever country manages to run away with a lead stands to reap just humongous advantages in economic and military and scientific power, as well as, like, global influence." — Josh Chin [00:53]
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On the acceleration and perils of competition:
"This race dynamic is actually leading both sides to sort of downplay safety concerns, which are really significant with a technology this powerful." — Josh Chin [01:35]
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On the Deepseek shock:
“The lead was basically in the sort of months, not years category.” — Josh Chin [09:11]
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On the chip dilemma:
“China has a lot of what it needs. … The one thing it really doesn’t have is chips.” — Josh Chin [09:38]
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On “swarming” chips:
“Just trying to take advantage of its capacity to produce relatively good quality things in huge quantities in order to sort of compete with the more exquisite but less numerous American technologies.” — Josh Chin [12:42]
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The perils of deregulation:
“The threat of competition from China means that the government should take a pretty hands-off approach, regulation-wise, and kind of let them do what they’re going to do, not slow them down.” — Josh Chin [14:00]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 00:05 – 01:59: Framing the AI race as the new cold war; stakes and risks
- 03:31 – 04:24: China’s early focus on computer vision and facial recognition
- 04:24 – 05:22: ChatGPT’s emergence and the U.S. surge ahead in AI
- 05:34 – 06:49: China mobilizes after ChatGPT; state intervention and local competition
- 07:32 – 08:54: Deepseek shakes up the global AI market
- 09:11 – 09:57: U.S.–China parity, and the chip bottleneck for China
- 11:19 – 12:42: China’s “swarm” strategy with Huawei and chips
- 13:00 – 13:50: U.S. state intervention and convergence with China’s model
- 14:00 – 14:47: Safety concerns lowered on both sides
- 15:04 – 16:34: Existential risks, AI safety fears, and predictions about the race
Conclusion
This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state and future of AI rivalry between the U.S. and China. It reveals a dynamic contest where technological innovation, government strategy, and global power intersect—with high stakes for safety and security worldwide. The hosts and guest offer nuanced, accessible commentary, useful not just for industry insiders, but for anyone interested in geopolitics, technology, or the shape of the 21st century.