How Beef Got So Expensive

Summary

The Journal. - How Beef Got So Expensive (June 10, 2026)

Episode Overview

In this episode, Ryan Knudsen and guest reporter Patrick Thomas explore why beef has become so expensive in America, tracing the story from high-end steakhouse prices back through the beef supply chain to cattle ranches experiencing unprecedented economic swings. The episode dives into cattle shortages, rancher profits, meatpacker struggles, restaurant woes, consumer behavior, and the prospects for beef affordability in the near future.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. A $100 Steak and the Sticker Shock (00:07–02:18)

• Scene-setting at an Old-School Nebraska Steakhouse: The episode opens in Omaha, introducing Patrick Thomas's family dinner. Menu prices set the tone: "A 11 ounce filet, $62. A bone-in ribeye, 25 ounces... about $90. The tomahawk, that's $137." (Patrick Thomas, 01:33)
• Context: Prices have approximately doubled over the past 10 years, even in the heart of cattle country.
• Key Question: "Why is beef so expensive?" (Ryan Knudsen, 02:12)

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2. The Beef Supply Chain Bottleneck (04:02–06:59)

• At a Nebraska Bull Sale: Patrick Thomas attends a high-stakes bull auction, describing competitive, sometimes cutthroat, bidding for premium breeding bulls. The price of one top bull, "the man in Black," reaches $75,000 (Ryan Knudsen, 04:48).
• Supply Constraint: “We don't have enough cattle country right now.” (Patrick Thomas, 02:18)
• Shrinking Cattle Herd: The U.S. cattle herd is at its smallest in 75 years.
• Auction Drama: “You have guys... Sometimes personal vendettas take place if they want to drive the price higher on somebody.” (Patrick Thomas, 06:00)
• Memorable Quote: “Sometimes it gets pretty bloody in there. I mean, the knives come out from all different directions.” (Sean Lockery, 06:08)

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3. The Boom-and-Bust Reality for Ranchers (07:06–10:59)

• Hard Times During COVID: Ranchers like Sean Lockery suffered as meatpacking plants shut down, causing a cattle glut. Farmer incomes crashed: "Cattle prices have dropped a third in two months." (Patrick Thomas & Ryan Knudsen, 08:10–08:17)
• Drought Devastation (2022): Prolonged drought led to high feed costs, forcing many out of the industry.
• Financial Ruin: "Financially, it buried a ton of people... I'm done, I'm out of here." (Sean Lockery, 09:18)
• Herd Reduction: National herd size dropped by 7 million to around 86 million cattle.

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4. Rain, Recovery, and Record Profits for Ranchers (09:43–10:59)

• 2023 Recovery: Rain returns, grass grows, and rancher fortunes improve.
• Stunning Turnaround: “The profit margin for one animal... is about $1,000 right now. In 2020, it was $2." (Patrick Thomas, 10:17)
• Ryan’s Reaction: “$2 to $1,000. Holy cow.” (Ryan Knudsen, 10:26)
• Consequence: Ranchers pay down debts, upgrade equipment, and hire more staff.
• Sean sums it up: “Unprecedented times here in the cattle business right now... business has just turned upside down overnight.” (Sean Lockery, 10:47)

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5. The Winners and Losers: Meatpackers, Restaurants, and Consumers (10:59–13:57)

• Meatpackers’ Squeeze: With fewer cattle to process, big packers (e.g., JBS, Tyson) now lose about "$300 per animal that goes through their plant" (Patrick Thomas, 11:49). Closures like the Tyson plant in Lexington, Nebraska, cause ripple effects in local economies.
• Restaurants Hit Hard: BBQ joints and steakhouses face unsustainable beef costs. "Are you making any money right now serving beef? No. None at all." (Patrick Thomas & Sean Lockery, 13:33–13:38)
• Consumers: Despite 40% price hikes, Americans keep buying. “Americans love their beef, Ryan.” (Patrick Thomas, 13:54)
• Culture: Beef is “like gasoline in a car. It doesn’t matter what the cost... you need it.” (Sean Lockery, 14:05)

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6. Solutions and Resistance (14:28–16:21)

• Possible Relief Measures: Controversial proposals include importing beef from South America—an idea ranchers resist as a threat to their business.
  • "Members of the Trump administration have also asked ranchers to grow their herd sizes... pleading with cattle ranchers to produce more.” (Ryan Knudsen, 15:04)
  • Ranchers are in no rush, recalling past profitless years: “They are making more money than they ever have... and they want to keep that going.” (Patrick Thomas, 15:45)
• Other Headwinds: Ongoing drought and the reemergence of screwworm parasite hamper herd growth.
• Logistics Matter: “Even if ranchers decided to boost their herd sizes, it’s not like you can just flip a switch... it takes a couple years before a calf ends up as a steak.” (Ryan Knudsen, 16:23)

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7. The Era of the $100 Steak: Here to Stay? (16:53–18:43)

• Rancher’s Perspective: “People are going to get used to paying the prices for the taste of the good old United States raised beef. Okay, it just tastes different. It just tastes that much better.” (Sean Lockery, 16:53)
• Long-Term Outlook: “Right now, there’s no end in sight... beef prices are going to be high and keep rising for some time. It just might be kind of the luxury item at the meat case.” (Patrick Thomas, 17:12)
• Closing Steakhouse Scene: Family banter over who foots the bill, acknowledging price pain but appreciation for quality beef. “Thank God my dad’s paying... Glad that this is on the family tab.” (Patrick Thomas, 18:16)

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Memorable Quotes

• “The profit margin for one animal, for a Rancher is about $1,000 right now. In 2020, it was $2.” – Patrick Thomas (10:17)
• “Cattle prices have dropped a third in two months.” – Patrick Thomas (08:15)
• “Sometimes it gets pretty bloody in there. I mean, the knives come out from all different directions.” – Sean Lockery (06:08)
• “People are going to get used to paying the prices for the taste of the good old United States raised beef. Okay, it just tastes different.” – Sean Lockery (16:53)
• “Right now, it seems like we’re headed for a place where beef is more of the luxury protein... and we’re going to have to stomach these higher prices for good.” – Patrick Thomas (17:12)

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Important Timestamps

• 00:07–02:18: Setting the scene – steakhouse sticker shock, price history
• 04:02–06:59: Bull auction, supply chain pinch, competitive bidding
• 07:06–09:31: COVID, drought, and rancher struggles, herd reduction
• 09:43–10:59: Recovery and record rancher profits
• 11:30–13:57: Meatpacker/restaurant struggles, consumer demand
• 14:28–16:21: Imports, herd expansion resistance, ongoing challenges
• 16:53–18:43: The new norm: expensive beef as a luxury, reflections at the steakhouse

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Tone & Style

The episode blends Wall Street Journal’s analytical storytelling with a conversational, at times folksy, on-the-ground tone—moving from restaurant tables to raucous cattle auctions and the hard realities of rural America.

Listeners are left understanding not just why beef prices are high, but what these changes mean up and down the food supply chain—and why this may be the “era of the $100 steak” for the foreseeable future.

Transcript

[Ryan Knudsen]

Omaha, Nebraska. 6 o' clock dinner reservation. The Thomas family, party of six, is settling into one of the great old school steakhouses in the Midwest. It's the kind of place with low lighting and heavy chairs. The. The room smells like brown butter and seared beef fat.

[Patrick Thomas]

It's old timey. It's kind of got the wooden exterior. The floors are creaking when you walk in.

[Ryan Knudsen]

That's our colleague, Patrick Thomas. As in the Thomas family party of

[Patrick Thomas]

six, you've kind of got that brassy Sinatra type of music, old world type of steakhouse.

[Ryan Knudsen]

I'm going to go from the most tender all the way up to our most heavily marbled cut. So our most tender cut here will be the filet. So what brought you to that steakhouse in Nebraska?

[Patrick Thomas]

My family still lives out there. My brother was actually graduating high school.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Oh, wow. Congratulations. Cheers.

[Sean Lockery]

Rye bread.

[Patrick Thomas]

Ryan's graduation.

[Ryan Knudsen]

I heard his name is Ryan.

[Patrick Thomas]

It's another Ryan.

[Ryan Knudsen]

What a great name.

[Patrick Thomas]

How's your steak?

[Ryan Knudsen]

My steak's delicious. Very tender and juicy. But while the steak was delicious, the price was a lot harder to swallow, you know.

[Patrick Thomas]

So a 11 ounce filet, $62. A bone in ribeye, 25 ounces. That's going to be about $90.

[Ryan Knudsen]

That seems expensive for Nebraska.

[Patrick Thomas]

The tomahawk, that's $137.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Wow. It's not just expensive for Nebraska, it's expensive everywhere. Beef prices are skyrocketing at restaurants, grocery stores all over America. Welcome to the era of the $100 steak.

[Patrick Thomas]

I went to the restaurant's Yelp page to find a picture of what the menu looked like 10 years ago. And it's about double from what it was 10 years ago.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Wow. Why is beef so expensive?

[Patrick Thomas]

Beef is a very complex supply chain, but the answer is very simple. We don't have enough cattle country right now.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Welcome to the Journal, our show about money, business and power. I'm Ryan knudsen. It's Wednesday, June 10th. Coming up on the show, where's the Beef?

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[Ryan Knudsen]

Deposits again. Boy, look at this bull. Look at this bull. Randy. There is a ripping good thick bull at 5, 6. The reason beef is so expensive right now has everything to do with the animals. Our colleague Patrick grew up in Nebraska, AKA the beef State, and recently went to a cattle auction about four hours outside Omaha. If you've never been to a bull sale before, there's one thing Patrick says you need to watch out for. Flying poop.

[Patrick Thomas]

You have the bull running into the ring who kind of trots out right away. He's kicking up some of the manure and sometimes he runs by and the manure will kind of fly up a little bit. So you gotta be careful if you're in the front row.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Yuck. Right now, the best cattle in America are worth a fortune. Here at the TD Angus bull sale, ranchers pay astonishing amounts of money for breeding bulls. The fathers of future herds. Some will sell for as much as a new cybertruck. On this spring day, all eyes in the room are on a hulking bull named the man in Black. His breeders call him a quote, man amongst boys. He's the man in black. 5, 6. In the end, he sold for $75,000. No bull sold the bull $75,000. 75,000. The man in Black is basically the start of the supply chain. He'll go on to father potentially dozens of calves each year, calves that will make up part of the nation's cattle herd. But the cattle herd in the US has dramatically shrunk. It's now at its smallest size in 75 years. There simply isn't enough cattle. And America wants beef. The shortage is making the auctions really competitive.

[Patrick Thomas]

You have guys been described as vicious because you'll have, you know, sometimes personal vendettas take place if they want to drive the price higher on somebody.

[Sean Lockery]

And sometimes it gets pretty bloody in there. I mean, the knives come out from all different directions.

[Ryan Knudsen]

That's Sean Lockery, one of the ranchers who tried to win the man in Black. Sean is a sixth generation Great Plains cattleman. Sun brown skin, broad shoulders, cowboy hat. Competition is so fierce that Sean will sometimes send in a decoy to Bid on his behalf just to throw off his rivals.

[Sean Lockery]

They make it a lot more competitive than it used to be. It gets very cutthroat. It gets a little, you know, gets. Can get edgy at times, but, you know.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Patrick caught up with Sean outside the sale barn.

[Patrick Thomas]

So how do you think you made out today?

[Sean Lockery]

Bid on 4 Bulls today and didn't. Didn't get anything bought today, unfortunately. Not too happy. Oh, yeah, nice to bring one home. But, you know, like I said, bulls

[Ryan Knudsen]

are selling for eye watering amounts now. But it wasn't always like this.

[Patrick Thomas]

Historically, cattle ranching has been one of the hardest jobs in agriculture. The profit margins have been largely for the most of history, Pretty lackluster. There's always boom and bust cycles. But historically, it's a tough business. And as Sean told me, it got particularly bad during COVID We weren't.

[Sean Lockery]

No, we weren't getting a lot of money. For the cavs, the market completely dropped out.

[Ryan Knudsen]

I mean, Covid created huge problems for the beef supply chain and major pain for ranchers like sean. The way the beef supply chain works is that ranchers like Sean sell their cattle to meatpackers. But during the pandemic, the meatpackers weren't running at full capacity because workers were getting sick and plants had to temporarily close. This created a problem. Ranchers suddenly found themselves with cattle they couldn't sell.

[Patrick Thomas]

So you had a bottleneck at the meatpacking level, and you had too much supply, and there wasn't anywhere to put them, and their animals were almost worthless.

[Ryan Knudsen]

The struggle for cattle farmers around the nation is real as they watch prices

[Patrick Thomas]

drop for their livestock.

[Sean Lockery]

Cattle prices have dropped a third in

[Ryan Knudsen]

two months, Forcing some north texas ranchers to sell off cattle by the thousands.

[Optum Healthcare Sponsor]

Many have stopped saying it can't get worse.

[Patrick Thomas]

And that made a lot of guys take out debt to stay in business. It put a lot of ranchers like Sean in pretty dire straits.

[Sean Lockery]

Every day you woke up, it was the next crisis. Farmers and ranchers, you know, barely could get through it mentally. And it's just. It's a pull yourself up by the bootstraps kind of moment.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Then things got worse. In 2022, extreme drought swept across cattle country. Grass was disappearing, but the cattle still had to eat. Ranchers found themselves spending tons on hay and feed for animals that weren't turning a profit. Sean watched his neighbors sold off their cattle. Some euthanized them. Others left the business altogether.

[Sean Lockery]

Financially, it buried a ton of people. You know, financially, they said, well, I'm done. I'm not going to go through the tough times again. I'm done. I'm out of here.

[Ryan Knudsen]

After all this, the total herd size in the US dropped by 7 million cattle to around 86 million. So when did things start to turn around for ranchers?

[Patrick Thomas]

As I think Sean put it, the rain started coming again in 2023.

[Sean Lockery]

And once, once it starts raining, you know, that's the golden ticket out here.

[Ryan Knudsen]

The grass came back. And for the first time in years, ranchers weren't having to worry as much about how they're going to feed their cattle. For ranchers who had hung on during the tough times like Sean, their fortunes were starting to turn. Even though herds were smaller, Americans still had a huge appetite for beef. And that meant that now ranchers were finally making some good money. Like really good.

[Patrick Thomas]

The profit margin for one animal, for a Rancher is about $1,000 right now. In 2020, it was $2.

[Ryan Knudsen]

$2 to $1,000.

[Patrick Thomas]

Yes.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Holy cow. A 500 fold increase in profit margins. With all that cash, ranchers have been able to hire more staff, pay down some of that debt they racked up during the pandemic, and upgrade old equipment.

[Sean Lockery]

We have unprecedented times here in the cattle business right now. I mean, it's just this business has just turned upside down overnight. I mean, it's unbelievable.

[Ryan Knudsen]

For the people raising cattle, these are boom times. Ranchers are riding high. But for everyone else in the beef business, not so much. That's next. If ranchers are finally on the winning end of cattle economics, there are few folks who are losing.

[Patrick Thomas]

The biggest loser right now is the meatpacker.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Remember that during COVID there were lots of cattle and not enough capacity at meatpacking plants. As a result, the meatpackers were able to buy cattle for dirt cheap and they were making lots of money. But now that the meat packers are back up to full speed and cattle

[Patrick Thomas]

herds have shrunk, the meatpacker is losing about $300 per animal that goes through their plant.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Ouch.

[Patrick Thomas]

Well, you have some of these big packers, I mean, JBS, Cargill, Tyson, they have plants that process 6,000 catt.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Wow.

[Patrick Thomas]

And they're losing 300 bucks per animal going through it. So we're talking billions of dollars in losses that these packers are sustaining right now.

[Ryan Knudsen]

That's pretty incredible that just a few years ago the packers were in the opposite position and that they were the part of the chain that was extracting all the value.

[Patrick Thomas]

Yeah, it's how the pendulum swings and it's really swung in the rancher's direction and it's been so severe in this particular time that you've seen Tyson closed one of their largest plants in Lexington, Nebraska, in January of this year. You, you've had expectations in the industry that more big plants will have to close just because it's so unsustainable for packers to keep losing this amount of money. And keep in mind, Ryan, when one of these plants closes, it's a big deal for the local economies.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Well, yeah, because they employ a lot of people.

[Patrick Thomas]

Usually they employ a ton of people. These small towns are kind of company towns.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Lexington, Nebraska, is set to forever change this week as largest employer, a Tyson meatpacking plant, prepares to close. A third of Lexington's community is searching for new jobs. The pain doesn't stop at the packing plant. Beef dependent restaurants are also suffering.

[Sean Lockery]

More and more barbecue joints announce they're closing up shop.

[Ryan Knudsen]

In Texas, barbecue joints are losing money on brisket, a second staple menu item. Pitmasters are trying to steer people away from brisket.

[Patrick Thomas]

Are you making any money right now serving beef? No. None at all.

[Sean Lockery]

None at all.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Even though we. And then there are the consumers in some cases. Patrick has tracked 40% price increases from a couple years ago, and yet Americans keep finding room in their budgets for beef. Domestic consumption has actually gone up in recent years.

[Patrick Thomas]

You know, the Americans love their beef, Ryan.

[Ryan Knudsen]

This is kind of part of our DNA. At that steakhouse in Omaha, Patrick's dad had a theory. Beef is like gasoline in a car.

[Patrick Thomas]

You need.

[Sean Lockery]

It doesn't matter what the cost of gasoline is, you need it.

[Patrick Thomas]

It's the same thing with beef.

[Ryan Knudsen]

I agree. That's a good point.

[Patrick Thomas]

Despite the higher prices, people really, really love beef and protein in particular, with the protein craze. So beef demand hasn't dropped off. So it supported these higher prices. And that's been the big revelation to a lot of people.

[Ryan Knudsen]

So what can be done about these high prices?

[Patrick Thomas]

There's a couple of things that could bring some immediate relief, one of which, which is very controversial, is imports importing

[Ryan Knudsen]

beef from other countries.

[Patrick Thomas]

Correct. The Trump administration, as we've reported, has considered, you know, signing executive orders that would basically reduce a tariff rate on certain beef exporting countries out of South America.

[Ryan Knudsen]

The President says the move will help bring down record high beef prices while also helping Argentina's struggling economy. Trump on Thursday removed his 40% tariffs on Brazilian food products. That includes levies on beef, coffee. And the administration's efforts haven't gone very far, though. Ranchers view the idea of foreign beef as a threat. And after pushback from the industry. The White House appears to have backed away from the proposal. Members of the Trump administration have also asked ranchers to grow their herd sizes. It came up at a recent cattle trade show. I eat beef every day. I usually eat it twice a day, so I. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Pleaded with cattle ranchers to produce more. Begging you to increase the size of the herds. But ranchers are resisting. Larger herds means they can't charge as much.

[Patrick Thomas]

The rancher is scarred from history of low profits, and they don't want to lose the good times. They are making more money than they ever have in history, and the data backs that up. They're getting more money for their cattle than they ever have, and they want to keep that going.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Ranchers are in no rush to replenish their herds, not while Nebraska is currently experiencing another dry spell. And if that weren't enough, there's also a flesh eating parasite going around.

[Patrick Thomas]

The screwworm is back.

[Ryan Knudsen]

The screwworm loves beef just as much as Americans do, and it's threatening herds.

[Sean Lockery]

A case of new world screwworm has

[Ryan Knudsen]

been detected in the US Even if ranchers decided to boost their herd sizes, it's not like you can just flip a switch and instantly have more beef. It takes a couple years before a calf ends up as a steak on somebody's plate. For now, America is stuck with fewer cattle and for the foreseeable future, pricier burgers and steaks. For his part, Sean the rancher says he does feel for American shoppers, but he also wants them to appreciate that they're getting what they pay for.

[Sean Lockery]

People are going to get used to paying the prices for the taste of the good old United States raised beef. Okay, it just tastes different. It just tastes that much better.

[Ryan Knudsen]

So is the era of $100 steak just here to stay?

[Patrick Thomas]

Right now, there's no end in sight. Some things could happen, but at this moment, it seems like beef prices are going to be high. They're going to stay high and keep rising for some time. But right now, it seems like we're headed for a place where beef is more of the luxury protein and that we're going to have to stomach these higher prices for good. And it just might be kind of the luxury item at the meat case.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Talk about a rare commodity.

[Patrick Thomas]

Oh, my God.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Is everyone okay? Can I get you any sauces? Anything?

[Sean Lockery]

Very good.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Perfect. Back at the steakhouse, Patrick sliced into his filet the. The warm red center, the glossy juices, the ribbons of fat. All of it traced back to prize bulls. Bidding wars and ranchers trying not to repeat old mistakes. What went through your mind when you saw the prices of this menu?

[Patrick Thomas]

Well, thank God my dad's paying. And, you know I'm not on the hook for it. Glad that this is on the family tab. All right, dad. How was the steak?

[Sean Lockery]

Delicious.

[Patrick Thomas]

Was it worth it?

[Ryan Knudsen]

Yes.

[Sean Lockery]

Well, I wouldn't have minded a little bit cheaper, but it was still good.

[Patrick Thomas]

You do it again, even if it was a little bit more expensive, goes up a couple more bucks. Still gonna pay for it?

[Ryan Knudsen]

Yes. Pierce. Got a couple buc. That's all for today. Wednesday, June 10. The Journal is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. If you like our show, follow us on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. We're out every weekday afternoon. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.