Jessica Mendoza (2:47)

Are you a forward thinker? Then you need an HR and finance platform that thinks like you do. Workday is the AI platform that helps propel your organization, your workforce and your industry into the future Workday, moving business forever forward. President Trump has had his eye on Greenland since his first term. And since getting reelected, he's put the issue front and center. At first, Trump expressed interest in buying the island. Denmark, which controls Greenland, said it wasn't for sale. Here's Danish Prime Minister Mette Fredriksen.

Max Colchester (3:29)

Greenland is today a part of the Kingdom of Denmark.

Jessica Mendoza (3:32)

It's a part of our territory, and it's not for sale. European Union leaders stood behind Denmark, and for a while, that was that. But then, early this month, Trump made a big geopolitical move that stunned the world. The US Captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and that signaled he was serious about a new era of foreign policy.

Max Colchester (3:58)

It was in the wake of that action in Venezuela that everyone said, well, you know, if you're willing to take that kind of action in Venezuela, what would you do about Greenland? And he then came back and said, well, actually, yeah, we need Greenland. And so now suddenly this was a US Leader who was willing to take those kinds of risks.

Jessica Mendoza (4:20)

Trump frames the argument for US Control of Greenland as an issue of national security. The IS island is a potentially rich source of rare earth minerals, which are crucial for everything from magnets to chips to defense systems. Trump also points to increased Russian military presence in the Arctic and says that the region will be at the center of the next global power struggle.

Donald Trump (4:40)

Look, we have to have it. They have to have this done. They can't protect it. Denmark, they're wonderful people, and I know the leaders. They're very good people, but they don't even go there.

Max Colchester (4:52)

What Trump was saying and his argument for controlling Greenland is that essentially the EU and Denmark in particular, doesn't have the financial muscle to actually defend Greenland or protect the Arctic. So that's the premise of this.

Jessica Mendoza (5:13)

Then. On January 15, the EU sent a contingent of troops to Greenland. The idea, according to Max's reporting, was to show Trump that they were willing and able to defend the region. Troops arriving in Greenland. The Danish military just posting these images that we're showing you of troops arriving in Greenland.

Max Colchester (5:32)

And it wasn't a very big contingent. It was a few dozen soldiers from a handful of European countries, and they arrived. And the way some European officials now see it, is that Trump saw that not as a show of strength, but by Europe, as a sort of an antagonistic move by Europe to basically tell.

Jessica Mendoza (5:52)

Him to back off, just to be clear. So the eu, from their perspective, they were sending a small contingent of troops to Greenland to say, hey, look, we can protect this territory. And now they're feeling like Trump saw that move as an aggressive step by the eu.

Max Colchester (6:10)

Yeah, exactly. This is a bunch of European countries trying to flex their muscles. And that actually, Trump took this as a slight as opposed to a reassurance.

Jessica Mendoza (6:19)

And so what did Trump do in response?

Max Colchester (6:22)

So Trump's response was to come out on Truth Social and threaten the contingent of around seven European countries that sent those troops with 10% tariffs by February 1st if they continued to stand in his way and stop him purchasing Greenland. And they said that he would escalate that to 25% if they didn't basically relinquish and allow him to buy Greenland and that this would stay in place until the deal was done.

Jessica Mendoza (6:52)

European leaders tried to avoid escalating the situation further. On Sunday, the Prime Minister of Norway sent that message to Trump expressing his opposition to the tariffs and trying to convince the president to talk it over. French President Emmanuel Macron messaged Trump as well, saying, quote, unquote, my friend, we are totally in line on Syria. We can do great things on Iran. I do not understand what you are doing on Greenland. But Trump didn't back down. And now Europe is considering retaliating.

Max Colchester (7:24)

The EU does have a tool called the anti coercion instrument, or the bazooka, as they call it, whereby they can impose pretty stringent export and import restrictions on a country that tries to economically blackmail them. They could restrict certain products they export to the U.S. they could make it harder for U.S. tech firms to operate here by tightening regulation. They could impose tariffs on certain US Products. They could also restrict access to the financial markets here for US Firms, which again would be problematic for them. So they have tools to inflict economic pain on US Based businesses.

Jessica Mendoza (8:07)

How big a deal would that be for the US and how risky for Europe?

Max Colchester (8:13)

It would be very risky for Europe because obviously the US could respond. And we've seen with Trump, he tends to escalate when faced with aggression. So, you know, it's something that has to be calibrated very carefully. And I think it's something that would take a while to deploy. And actually quite a lot of the EU members would probably lobby against extremely stringent measures, fearing blow back on their own economies. So it's not a silver bullet. But, you know, in the face of some provocation, they're going to have to do something. So if those tariffs that Trump is threatening on February 1st come into play, they can't just sit back and swallow them. So there is increasing pressure on European leaders to reflect that public anger at this move on Greenland. So they will come under pressure to actually bear teeth against the U.S. trump.

Jessica Mendoza (9:04)

Maintains that the U.S. has a lot to gain from controlling Greenland, from securing the Arctic to mining rare earth minerals. But is all the geopolitical turmoil worth it? Max went to Greenland to find out that's next. You were just in Greenland on a reporting trip. Can you set the scene? Where were you? What was it like on the ground?

Max Colchester (9:35)

Yeah. So I flew to Nuuk, which is the capital of Greenland, which is on the western coast. And I think it's hard really to get a sense across really how big Greenland is and how empty it is. I mean, when you fly over Greenland from Europe, at least it's massive and it looks like the moon. It's this frozen, huge frozen expanse. It's really, it's nearly like sci fi when you approach nuke. And this is a country which is slightly bigger than Mexico. It is 80% ICE. It has a very tiny population of around 57,000 people who live mainly on the coast, southwestern coast, because the rest is ice. There's less than 100 miles of paved road in Greenland. So this is a very sparsely populated and for a large part, inhospitable place.

Jessica Mendoza (10:29)

And so what does its economy look like?

Max Colchester (10:32)

It's a very small one. The workforce is 29,000 people, which is the size of a tiny town. Its biggest export is shrimp, haliput and cod. 98% of Greenland exports are fish or fishing produce. It's just very small. And efforts to try and build out mines in Greenland haven't really come to much because, you know, you've got to go into the middle of some icy tundra, dig a hole, build a road to it, build housing for your workers, build a port, maybe build a Runway. It's incredibly expensive. And then it's such bad weather for a chunk of the year, you can't even access it. So it's not a place that you just turn up and it's waiting to go.

Jessica Mendoza (11:25)

Right. It sounds like it would take a lot to get those resources out of there.

Max Colchester (11:29)

Exactly. When you get there, you realize that although it's been painted as this potential El Dorado for minerals and whatnot, when you get there you realize people basically live off fishing and Danish subsidies. And it's not a gold mine in that sense. It's more of a money pit.

Jessica Mendoza (11:48)

In fact, the Danish government spends about a billion dollars a year subsidizing Greenland.

Max Colchester (11:53)

They provide the Greenlandic government with what's called a grant every year to help pay for education and whatnot. They also cover healthcare for the Greenlandic people and they pay for the defence of Greenland. So it's quite an expensive tab for the Danish government to pick up every year.

Jessica Mendoza (12:14)

And has Trump said anything about replacing that if the US takes over Greenland?

Max Colchester (12:19)

No, it's not really something he's addressed. And it is this huge welfare state that he would be inheriting that would receive, you know, in federal funding wise, it would receive wages more per capita than, say, Alaska or Washington, D.C. does. So it would be, to start with, at least it would be a huge drain on the federal purse to own and run Greenland.

Jessica Mendoza (12:43)

As for what Greenlanders think, polls show that a large majority of them have no interest in becoming an American territory. Over the weekend, anti US Protests took place in Nuuk and Copenhagen with people wearing hats that said Make America go away and chanting Greenland in their native language. While you were there, you had a chance to talk to some locals. What do they tell you?

Max Colchester (13:13)

I think many people feel that they actually, they've come to an accommodation with Denmark, which works for them, and they're wary of just throwing it all up in the air. And of course, America has a bad record in dealing with indigenous people, and they know that. So I think the idea of letting in a load of mining prospectors from America in return for cash is a model they've seen, has not worked for others in the past. So I think they're wary.

Jessica Mendoza (13:42)

But Max says some Greenlanders might be open to hearing Trump out before making up their minds.

Max Colchester (13:48)

I was walking around the port in Nuuk and I bumped into a fellow who was walking his dog and started chatting to him. And he invited me into his office and he works at a shrimp trawler company. And we started chatting and I said, oh, well, what do you think? Do you think you'd like to be part of America? He said, no, no, no, absolutely not. But then the more we chatted, the more he said, well, actually, I'd be interested to hear what Trump is offering. What's the deal? And I found that interesting because it's, you know, I know a lot of Greenlanders say they don't want to become American, but I think it would be very interesting to see what happens if Trump did put an offer on the table.

Jessica Mendoza (14:30)

That sort of brings us to this week, where maybe awkwardly, a lot of the people involved in this dispute are coming together in Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum. What can we expect from leaders this week at Davos?

Max Colchester (14:47)

I don't know. I just think what we've seen in the last 24 hours has been so kind of crazy. I mean, you saw these private texts between leaders and Trump. Based on those texts, it seems like the leaders want to have a talk with him and try and work out a solution without escalating.

Jessica Mendoza (15:08)

Yeah. I mean, the theme at Davos is the spirit of dialogue. So is it.

Max Colchester (15:12)

Well, good luck with that. Yeah, exactly. It sounds like a good theme. Yeah. I mean, I think that's what they'll be hoping. Dialogue. I think they're hoping they can apply the Ukraine playbook to Trump, which is that, you know, he comes out, says something which sends everybody into a tears and then they sit, they all rush over to Washington and chat to him and then he actually, he kind of kicks the can a bit down the road and they walk him back from the cliff a bit. And so I suspect that's what they'll try to do. But I mean, longer term, if what everybody suspects is the case, which is that he just wants Greenland, because he wants Greenland, then it's not clear what they can do to stop him. Because promising extra investment in Greenland or promising extra troops in Greenland isn't going to cut it if he just really just wants to own Greenland.

Jessica Mendoza (16:02)

Ultimately, what does this moment mean for the alliance between the US And Europe?

Max Colchester (16:08)

Well, with Trump, it's just so difficult because you get these moments which it just seems like everything's going to fall apart and you know, he creates this chaos and often people say it's on purpose. But yeah, I mean, if he goes through with this, then it is existential for the alliance. If he does seek to use economic pressure to coerce Denmark into giving up Greenland, then I think it is, it's going to sharpen a lot of minds in Europe. And I think we're already seeing a slight change in tact. There's a hardening in the rhetoric towards Trump. The previous tactic of promising him huge investments and basically playing along with his charade, I think will stop and they'll have to just essentially tell him some hard truths which may result in economic pain being inflicted on Europe.

Jessica Mendoza (16:59)

As of today, leaders from around the world have spoken publicly about the Greenland issue. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has said Greenland's sovereignty is, quote, non negotiable. Russia's foreign minister compared Trump's push for Greenland with Moscow's annexation of Crimea, while the Canadian Prime Minister called it a break in the rules based international order. Still, some European leaders are hopeful that there's room for progress. During the Davos forum, Finland's leader went as far as saying he believes it might be possible to defuse the Greenland tension by the end of the week. That's all for today. Tuesday, January 20th. The Journal is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. If you like our show, follow us on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. We're out every weekday afternoon. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.