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When the US and Israel began their war with Iran, one of the main goals appeared to be regime change. And the campaign began with a high profile assassination. Iranian state media has confirmed its supreme
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leader, Ayatollah Khamenei has been killed in his compound.
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This may change the game completely for Iran, change the region. Ali Khamenei, the 86 year old supreme leader, Iran's highest political and religious authority, was dead. That strike also wiped out many in his inner circle and over the following weeks, other top Iranian officials were also killed.
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Iran's top security official Ali Larijani has
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been killed in a Commander Golum Reza Suleimani killed the spokesperson for the irgc, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. And this is now the fourth, fourth major target.
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So one of the assumptions of the war was that by killing senior Iranian officials, that could pave the way for the collapse of the regime so that people would rise up and overthrow their leaders.
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When we are finished, take over your government, it will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations. Has regime change happened in the way that the US and Israel hoped it would?
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Absolutely not. In fact, what we have seen is a hardening of Iran's leadership.
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That's her colleague Margarita Stancati.
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The more extreme elements of the Revolutionary Guards and hardliners in the political system are now much more firmly in control than they were before the war. There has been a change in the regime and it's been for the worse.
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Welcome to the Journal. Our show about money, business and power. I'm Ryan knudsen. It's Monday, April 20th. Coming up on the show, how attempts to push out the Iranian regime backfired. Foreign this episode is presented by SAP. Your company's ambitions can't be held back by long implementations, surprise costs or empty AI promises. SAP Grow AI Cloud ERP gets you live fast, keeps pricing predictable and delivers built in AI that gets results the first day, not someday. All on a single platform that's easy to manage. Industry ready and designed to scale with your business. Break bring it with SAP Grow AI Cloud ERP for any size business. SAP.com grow this episode is brought to you by Indeed.
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The Iranian regime has been a thorn in the US side practically since its formation almost 50 years ago.
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The Islamic Republic, from its inception, was poised to oppose the U.S. it started with the hostage crisis it in 1979.
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Some 60Americans, including our fellow citizen, whom
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you just saw bound and blindfolded, are now beginning their sixth day of captivity inside the US Embassy in Tehran.
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And a key part of the republic's ideology was this anti Americanism and especially Iran's hardliners, their anti Western ideologues.
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As far as Iran goes, this is the single biggest state sponsor of terrorism in the world.
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There has also been this fear, and for Israel, it's an existential fear that Iran could develop a nuclear bomb. And once that happens, it becomes very difficult to do anything about the regime. First of all, it would give the Iranian government enormous power, much more leeway, and it would be incredibly difficult to stop.
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Earlier this year, the US And Israel sensed that the Iranian regime was weak. After a massive popular uprising and a series of Israeli attacks that left Iran's proxies weakened, they decided to strike by taking aim at the country's leadership.
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Iran's form of government is essentially a theocracy, and the ultimate authority lies within the supreme leader. It's a system known as the velayati faqi. The supreme leader has the ultimate political as well as religious authority.
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Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in that strike at the start of the war, and to replace him, the country's religious clergy held a vote. The person they chose was Khamenei's son, Mujtaba Khamenei, who before the war wasn't necessarily considered a leading contender for the job.
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Some analysts say that, you know, had there not been a war, the selection of Mushta Bahomenei would have been a lot less likely. But because his father had been killed, because he was injured, because there was war, it meant that There was more momentum behind him. That choosing him sent a message of continuity and defiance from the political leadership.
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So what do we know about Mujtaba Khamenei?
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So the short answer is that we know very little. He has not appeared in public since he was selected. Nor have we seen a photo of him. Nor has the government shared even an audio message from him.
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He hasn't been seen in public. Are we sure that he's alive?
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We are not sure he's even alive. I mean, we know from sources that he was and from what US Officials are saying that he was likely injured. There is speculation that he was so badly injured he might not even be involved in the day to day running of the country. But the people who are representing Iran in his absence very much reflect his political orientation and who are close to his ideological position.
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Iran's state propaganda machine has published posters and videos of Mujtaba using old images and he's given written statements that are read by Iranian news anchors. Even before the war, Mujtaba largely stayed out of the spotlight, but he wielded considerable power behind the scenes.
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He played a key role in the Office of the Supreme Leader, the organization around the Supreme Leader, which is really at the heart of Iran's political and security authority. And in that role, he helped promote his allies and promote hardliners in various security and political positions. For example, one of the first times he kind of showed his political cards was in the early 2000s when he had a say in appointing a very conservative official to lead Iran's influential state propaganda organization.
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Another key moment came in 2009 when Iran's hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was running for re election against more moderate candidates. Mujtaba used his influence to help swing the vote.
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And we know that because at the time, reformist politicians openly complained about what they said was like election meddling by Mujtaba Khamenei and his role in kind of mobilizing the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij militia in support of Ahmadinejad. And that was really a key turning point in Iran's political history. It kind of tipped the country away from popular reformist politicians and leave it firmly on a more conservative path.
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Beyond Mujtaba, other key figures in Iranian leadership installed since the start of the war also seem to be more radical.
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Iran's new national security chief is someone called Mohammed Bagr Zolkadr. He's a former Revolutionary Guard commander and has a very violent background. He was before the revolution, he was basically an assassin who was personally involved in the assassination of policemen as well as of an American engineer. He was considered so extreme even by his own peers who thought he was too radical even for them. Zolkada replaced Ali Larijani, who was a political operator. He was someone who. Who built a reputation as a pragmatic negotiator during nuclear talks. He was a diplomat.
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There's also a new head of the highly influential Revolutionary Guard Corps, Ahmad Vahidi.
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He's the new chief of the Revolutionary Guard. He's accused of participating in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Argentina in Buenos Aires. He's currently still wanted in Argentina. He played a role as interior minister in cracking down protests in 2020. These are just some of the people who have been elevated during the war.
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I mean, it seems like this war has only made Iran's leadership more extreme than it was before.
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Absolutely. So, I mean, war hardens moderates and allows hardliners to rise faster. And that's exactly what's happening. What we're seeing is that the void is being filled by leaders who in most cases are more radical than the people who have replaced. And by more radical, we mean that they are staunchly anti American and have no tolerance for domestic descent. And many of them are kind of guided by this kind of apocalyptic military ideology.
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Apocalyptic military ideology. Can you say more about what that means?
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Yeah. So many of Iran's leaders believe in something called the cult of Mahdism, which is an ancient messianic Islamist doctrine. There is this figure in Shia Islam called the imam Mahdi, the 12th Imam, who many Shia Muslims believe will bring peace and justice to the world.
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Part of this belief is that war indicates the return of the Mahdi.
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This ideology has always existed. We're just seeing proponents of the ideology becoming much more outspoken and much more closer to the center of power.
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Coming up, how Iran's new leaders are approaching negotiations with the U.S. foreign. Comcast is delivering extraordinary experiences in live sports through the incredible broadcast and storytelling from NBC, innovative and personalized viewing features on Xfinity and Peacock, and the country's most reliable Wi Fi viewers can enjoy every game changing play faster and more seamlessly than ever, all in a network built to deliver unforgettable moments as close to live as possible. The ultimate experience for the American sports fan. Learn more@comcastcorporation.com sports. How do you see these new leaders running Iran? In what ways are their hardline approaches showing up in their posture towards the US And Israel?
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So the leaders who are Presenting Iran at the moment, they remain defiant in the face of the war. Iran is sending the message that they think they've won, right, that the war actually has been in their favor. Despite this kind of devastating losses to Iran's military capabilities and infrastructure. The war has also showed that they, they have cards to play, that they were able to basically hold the world economy hostage. And that has energized many elements within the Iranian government. And I think the fact that they found this new leverage in the Strait of Hormuz has further added to this sense of confidence.
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Over the weekend, Iran continued to flex that leverage. As of this afternoon, the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Iran shot at two ships bearing Indian flags and the US Seized an Iranian cargo ship, prompting threats from Iran that it'll retaliate. Meanwhile, there are plans for peace talks to resume in Pakistan tomorrow. Trump says the two week ceasefire is set to expire Wednesday night and that an extension is highly unlikely. According to a White House official,
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The
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regime is taking this very defiant, very confident stance in its posture toward negotiating with the U.S. but what kind of, what kind of pressure is it under internally and externally to reach a deal?
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Yes, although it's, you know, sending this message of confidence and defiance. You know, they have to come to terms with very severe wartime losses that have caused devastating damage, not just to their military capabilities, but also to their industry and their economy.
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Airstrikes have decimated key industries in Iran, from steel to petrochemicals to pharmaceuticals. It's estimated it'll take years and billions of dollars to rebuild the country.
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So I think this is what ultimately is putting Iranian leaders, regardless of how radical they are, under economic pressure to reach a deal. And I think that is something that the U.S. and Iranian negotiators have in common in understanding that the consequences of the war go beyond where this war is being waged. And it has consequences for the world economy. Dire consequences for the world economy.
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Meanwhile, the regime is continuing to crack down hard on internal dissent within Iran.
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The crackdown against any hint of domestic opposition has intensified. We've seen arrests, executions and explicit threats against would be protesters saying that, you know, they could be killed if they take to the streets.
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The Trump administration has acknowledged that the new leadership is likely here to stay in a post to Truth Social. At the end of March, President Trump said, quote, the United States of America is in serious discussions with a new and more reasonable regime to end our military operations in Iran. Great progress has been made. And during a press briefing a week later, Trump appeared to let go of any hope that the Iranian regime would be overthrown by its people. What would be your reaction if the Iranian people rise up against their regime during a case fire, Mr. President? Well, they should do it, but again, the consequences are great. I mean, they were told if you protest, you will be shot immediately.
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You say, I think we're much further away from the goal of regime change. We were before the war, certainly from the possibility of the regime voluntarily changing from within or becoming more accommodating both to domestic opposition and to the rest of the world. So I think the willingness of the regime to compromise domestically, internationally is a lot less than it was before.
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This is sort of incredible. You know, the US And Israel's goal was to change Iran, but it seems like it's changed Iran in ways that it did not intend.
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No, absolutely. And, you know, there's no historical precedent of an air bombing campaign leading to regime change. So the war had other aims, but a very clear early aim was to create the regime change. But this was based on a strategy that had never been tested before. You know, for opponents of the regime, what's happening right now is almost like the realization of, like their worst nightmare, seeing a country where the Revolutionary Guard plays an even more dominant role and where the supreme leader, who will rule for life, by the way, is younger and more radical than his father.
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That's all for today. Monday, April 20th. The Journal is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. Additional reporting in this episode by Benoit Falcon and Hannah Mousavi. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.
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The Future of Everything is The Wall Street Journal's flagship live event, returning to New York City May 4th through 5th. Be there as CEOs, policymakers and innovators sit down with our journalists to answer the most pressing questions of the day. From finance, tech and economic policy to sports streaming and style, we're bringing together today's most compelling newsmakers for two days of conversations on what's ahead. Listeners of this podcast can access exclusive discounted rates by visiting WSJ.com future. That's WSJ.com future.