Summary of "How Target Got Off Target" | The Journal

Episode Release Date: December 5, 2024
Hosts: Kate Linebaugh, Ryan Knutson, and Jessica Mendoza
Produced by: The Wall Street Journal & Gimlet in collaboration with Spotify

Introduction: Target's Storied Legacy

For decades, Target has been more than just a retail giant in America; it has been a cultural icon synonymous with a "cool" shopping experience. Hosts Ryan Knudsen and Sarah Nassauer delve into Target's rise, current challenges, and the factors contributing to its recent struggles.

Ryan Knudsen [00:05]: "For decades, Target has held a special place in the hearts of American consumers. It's not just a place to shop. It's a cool place to shop."

The Allure of Target: Beyond Utilitarian Shopping

Target distinguished itself from competitors like Walmart by offering a slightly upmarket shopping experience. This strategy was rooted in providing premium products and exclusive designer collaborations, which fostered a passionate customer base.

Sarah Nassauer [00:24]: "Target has been able to kind of transcend, like, just utilitarian shopping, right, and be, like, a fun thing to do."

Exclusive partnerships with high-end designers, such as Michael Graves and Missoni, created a buzz and made Target a destination for unique and desirable products.

Sarah Nassauer [04:12]: "One of the best examples ... a remake of something he had done in a high end way."

The Downturn: Flat Sales and Stock Decline

Recently, Target's once vibrant shopping experience has deteriorated. Customers report empty shelves, locked-up products, and long checkout lines, leading to flat sales and diminished profits. The company's stock has plummeted over 50% from its peak three years prior.

Ryan Knudsen [01:19]: "But recently, shopping at Target has become a lot less fun. ... Its sales are flat and its profits are weaker than expected."

Market Share Erosion

Target is losing ground to retail behemoths like Walmart, Costco, and Amazon. Analysts now predict that Target may become a victim in the fiercely competitive retail landscape.

Sarah Nassauer [02:04]: "We’re starting to think they're gonna be the victims."

Impact of Recent Events

The company's troubles began last year with inventory issues, exacerbated by overstocking pandemic-favored products that couldn't be sold post-pandemic. Additionally, Target faced backlash over its Pride collection, leading to product removals that further alienated customers.

Sarah Nassauer [06:19]: "They saw a meaningful drop in the number of people visiting their stores because of that controversy."

Deteriorating Customer Experience

Customers have expressed frustration over several operational changes:

• Locked Products: Anti-theft measures have resulted in products being inaccessible.
• Long Lines: Increased wait times at checkout counters.
• Diminished Fun: The once enjoyable shopping experience has lost its appeal.

Sarah Nassauer [07:22]: "I went to Target last night and I was wondering why the line was so long."

The sentiment among shoppers is one of loss, likening the experience to "slowly growing apart from an old friend."

Sarah Nassauer [08:11]: "It's almost with this sense of loss ... feels like I'm slowly growing apart from an old friend."

Economic Pressures

Economic shifts have forced consumers to prioritize essential purchases over discretionary spending. While inflation has cooled, the cost of necessities like food and healthcare remains high, affecting Target's sales of general merchandise.

Sarah Nassauer [08:38]: "Inflation is cooling, but prices are still a lot higher than they were a few years ago for things you need."

Financial Woes and Market Reaction

Target's latest financial report revealed the most significant earnings miss in two years, leading to a drastic drop in stock price and analyst downgrades. Despite claiming increased store visits and positive customer surveys, the market reacted negatively to the overall financial performance.

Sarah Nassauer [09:12]: "Shares of Target are plunging today, having their worst day since May 2022."

Leadership's Response: Strategies for Recovery

CEO Brian Cornell emphasized the need to reinforce Target's strengths by focusing on affordable, slightly upmarket products and maintaining distinctive offerings. The strategy includes lowering prices and enhancing product uniqueness to appeal to value-conscious consumers.

Sarah Nassauer [11:25]: "They are lowering prices and they continue to focus ... to maintain that distinctiveness."

Debating the Future: More Than Just Refinement

Executives are contemplating whether incremental adjustments are sufficient or if more radical changes are necessary to restore Target's former glory. The persistent challenge lies in balancing distinctive product offerings with a sustainable financial model amidst reduced discretionary spending.

Sarah Nassauer [12:05]: "Their big existential issue is something that has lingered for decades ... they need to figure out a strategy that works even when people don't have a lot of money to spend."

Potential Avenues for Turnaround

One proposed solution is to expand the grocery segment. While Target already offers groceries, enhancing this department with more fresh produce could drive regular foot traffic, similar to traditional grocery stores. However, this would require significant investment and a strategic shift in store layout.

Sarah Nassauer [13:13]: "Leaning into groceries would give shoppers a reason to go to Target more regularly."

Future Outlook: Risks and Resilience

If Target fails to adapt, it risks continued loss of market share to competitors who are expanding and innovating. However, while the situation is dire, the consensus among experts is that Target is not on the brink of collapse but is at a critical inflection point.

Sarah Nassauer [15:10]: "I don't think we're at the end of Target. We're not at the end of Target."

The key concern is whether Target can reinvent its shopping experience and product offerings to align with current consumer behaviors and economic realities.

Conclusion: A Brand at a Crossroads

Target's iconic status is challenged by operational missteps, changing consumer priorities, and fierce competition. The company stands at a crossroads, needing decisive action to reclaim its market share and restore the enjoyable shopping experience that once captivated American consumers. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Target can navigate these challenges and emerge stronger or continue on a downward trajectory.

Notable Quotes:

• Ryan Knudsen [00:05]: "Target has held a special place in the hearts of American consumers. It's not just a place to shop. It's a cool place to shop."

• Sarah Nassauer [04:12]: "They would drop 200 products from a fashion designer into a store and then people would mob the store and buy up all that stuff."

• Sarah Nassauer [07:22]: "I went to Target last night and I was wondering why the line was so long."

• Sarah Nassauer [08:11]: "Feels like I'm slowly growing apart from an old friend."

• Sarah Nassauer [11:25]: "They are lowering prices and they continue to focus ... to maintain that distinctiveness."

• Sarah Nassauer [15:10]: "I don't think we're at the end of Target. We're not at the end of Target."

This episode of The Journal provides an in-depth analysis of Target's current challenges, exploring the interplay between market dynamics, consumer behavior, and strategic decision-making. Whether Target can reinvent itself remains to be seen, but its journey offers valuable insights into the ever-evolving retail landscape.