How Trump's Megabill Squeaked Through the Senate

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Journal – "How Trump's Megabill Squeaked Through the Senate"

Introduction

In the July 2, 2025 episode of The Journal, hosted by Andi Minoff and Richard Rubin from The Wall Street Journal and Gimlet, listeners are taken behind the scenes of the intense Senate sessions that culminated in the passage of President Donald Trump's highly anticipated legislative package, dubbed the "big, beautiful bill." This comprehensive summary delves into the pivotal discussions, negotiations, and strategic maneuvers that enabled the bill to narrowly pass the Senate after a grueling 27-hour session.

Senate Marathon: A Race Against Time

The episode opens with Richard Rubin recounting his observation of the Senate's marathon efforts to pass the bill. Starting on Monday at 9 a.m., the proceedings extended well into the early hours of Tuesday, involving multiple amendment votes and frantic negotiations among Republican senators:

Richard Rubin [00:21]: "So they started at 9am on Monday and kept going... it went too late in the evening, and then it went to midnight, and then it went to 3am."

The Senate chamber became a battleground of strategy, with senators fueled by energy drinks and even huddling under blankets to stay alert:

Andi Minoff [00:51]: "Senators forged ahead, fueled partly by energy drinks and carrot cake. Some took turns huddling under a blanket in the chilly Senate chamber."

Significance for Republicans and President Trump

The passage of this bill represents a monumental victory for the Republican Party and President Trump. Rubin emphasizes that the legislation embodies the core Republican agenda, including tax cuts, spending reductions, stricter immigration controls, and enhanced defense spending:

Richard Rubin [03:24]: "This is what Republicans ran on. They ran on cutting taxes, they ran on cutting spending, they ran on tougher immigration, they ran on more for defense."

The bill is portrayed as a fulfillment of Trump's legislative promises, aiming to "secure our borders, turbocharge our economy, and bring back the American dream."

Key Sticking Points

The journey to passing the bill was fraught with contentious debates over three major areas: Medicaid, clean energy, and the federal deficit.

1. Medicaid Reforms

   The Senate bill proposed significant changes to Medicaid, including:

   • New Work Requirements: Adults would need to work 80 hours per month to qualify for Medicaid.
   • Limits on Medicaid Provider Taxes: Adjustments intended to reduce federal spending.

   These amendments sparked internal conflict within the Republican ranks. While some senators advocated for stricter Medicaid cuts to curb federal expenditures, others were concerned about the potential negative impact on rural hospitals and access to care:

   Lisa Murkowski [04:44]: "When it comes to Medicaid, those cuts that would harm Alaskan beneficiaries, that's not something that I can take home."

   To address these concerns, the Senate introduced a rural hospital fund allocating over $50 billion over five years, appeasing senators like Murkowski and Josh Hawley, yet causing friction with more conservative members who desired even deeper cuts:

   Richard Rubin [05:24]: "There was actually a problem on the other side of the Republican conference... it's a very complex exercise."

2. Clean Energy Policies

   President Trump has been critical of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, dismissing it as the "green news scam" and advocating for the reduction of tax credits for wind and solar energy. This stance created divisions within the Republican Party, as many clean energy projects are concentrated in Republican-controlled rural states:

   Richard Rubin [06:38]: "The President describes what Democrats did... He does not like tax credits for wind and solar in particular."

   To gain broader support, Senate Republicans agreed to phase out green energy subsidies more gradually and remove proposed taxes on wind and solar projects, thereby accommodating the interests of rural states reliant on these industries.

3. Budget Deficit Concerns

   The bill’s impact on the federal deficit became a significant point of contention. Senate Republicans assert that the bill reduces the deficit by extending existing tax cuts, arguing that these cuts should not be considered new fiscal hits:

   Richard Rubin [08:37]: "If you ask Senate Republicans, it reduces the deficit."

   Conversely, budget experts and the Congressional Budget Office maintain that the bill will increase the deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade due to the extension of tax cuts and additional spending on defense and border security:

   Richard Rubin [09:18]: "...by continuing these tax cuts, Republicans are making a change that does impact the deficit pretty significantly."

   This discrepancy led to sharp exchanges between Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who accused Republicans of using "fake math," and Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo, who claimed the accounting was straightforward for Americans to understand.

Senate Vote: A Narrow Passage

After an exhausting 27-hour session, the Senate vote was set at a 50-50 split, with Vice President J.D. Vance casting the decisive tie-breaking vote in favor of the bill:

Richard Rubin [13:02]: "On this vote, the yeas are 50, the nays are 50. The Senate being evenly divided, the Vice President votes in the affirmative. The bill as amended, is passed."

Key Republican figures who opposed the bill included:

• Susan Collins of Maine: Voiced concerns over Medicaid cuts and insufficient funds for rural healthcare.
• Thom Tellis of North Carolina: Firmly opposed the bill due to its impact on her constituents.
• Ron Johnson: Initially criticized the bill as rushed and problematic but ultimately voted in favor.

Conversely, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska secured specific provisions for her state, such as the increased rural hospital fund, allowing her to support the bill despite reservations:

Richard Rubin [11:57]: "Lisa Murkowski... got enough for Alaska in there that she was able to vote for it."

Next Steps: The House and the July 4 Deadline

With the Senate's version of the bill now passed, it moves to the House of Representatives, where it must be approved before the self-imposed deadline of July 4th to reach President Trump's desk. Rubin highlights the uncertainty surrounding the House's ability to pass the bill:

Richard Rubin [14:02]: "This may be the way. It may get through the House, it may take some more changes, but something roughly like this is on the way."

The House has the authority to modify the Senate's version, adding another layer of complexity to the bill's journey.

Conclusion

The Senate's passage of Trump's "big, beautiful bill" marks a significant achievement for Republicans, aligning closely with the President's legislative priorities. However, the bill's future remains uncertain as it faces the formidable challenge of passing through the House amidst internal party divisions and looming deadlines. The episode of The Journal masterfully captures the high-stakes negotiations and strategic compromises that characterized the Senate's marathon session, offering listeners an in-depth understanding of this pivotal moment in American legislative history.

Notable Contributors

Additional reporting for this episode was provided by Natalie Andrews, Olivia Bevers, Jas Lee, and Lindsay Wise.

Transcript

[Andi Minoff]

Our colleague Richard Rubin spent his Monday and much of his Tuesday at the U.S. capitol. He was watching as Republican senators tried to pass their version of President Trump's signature legislation, his big, beautiful bill. And it was a nail biter.

[Richard Rubin]

So they started at 9am on Monday and kept going. You know, there were multiple things going on. There were amendment votes and votes happening on the floor. And there were also negotiations in the back rooms where senators were in the Republican side were trying to get the final votes that they needed to pass this thing. So this thing dragged, right? So it went too late in the evening, and then it went to midnight, and then it went to 3am.

[Andi Minoff]

Senators forged ahead, fueled partly by energy drinks and carrot cake. Some took turns huddling under a blanket in the chilly Senate chamber.

[Richard Rubin]

And then the sun came up. And then they finally figured out a version maybe mid to late morning that was going to work for the last holdout vote, who's Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. And she ended up voting for it. And the thing passed just after noon on Tuesday. If you're keeping score, that's 27 hours where the Senate was fully in session working on this. And it went from June to July in there, but the bill went from not passed to passed.

[Andi Minoff]

And how big of a victory is this for Republicans to have cleared this hurdle?

[Richard Rubin]

Oh, it's big. There's a giant sigh of relief basically that they got through this thing.

[Andi Minoff]

The question now is whether the House can get the bill to President Trump's desk by a self imposed deadline. Independence Day. Welcome to the Journal, our show about money, business and power. I'm Andi Minoff. It's Wednesday, July 2nd. Coming up on the show, the mad dash to get Trump his big beautiful bill.

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[Andi Minoff]

How long have you been tracking this big, beautiful bill? Are you sick of hearing the words big, beautiful bill?

[Richard Rubin]

Sure. I mean, in some sense. I've been following this bill for eight years because we've known this was coming. Right. As soon as Congress in 2017 passed the 2017 tax cuts that set an expiration date of 1231, 25, we all knew that something was going to happen probably this year.

[Andi Minoff]

So you marked your calendar eight years ago. So why is this big bill so important to President Trump?

[Richard Rubin]

This is what Republicans ran on. They ran on cutting taxes, they ran on cutting spending, they ran on tougher immigration, they ran on more for defense. So this is a significant part of what the Trump agenda is on the legislative side. The one big, beautiful bill to secure our borders, turbocharge our economy, and bring back the American dream. That's what's happening.

[Andi Minoff]

So a version of this bill passed the House back in May. It then went to the Senate. And the Republican majority in the Senate is tight, and no Democrats are going to vote for this bill. So how many senators could Republicans afford to lose?

[Richard Rubin]

So they could afford to lose three. They have 53. You count down 1, 2, 3, and then you're at 50, and then that's the minimum they needed because the Vice President can come break the tie.

[Andi Minoff]

There were a few sticking points that would make it hard to get to 50 yes votes. One big one was Medicaid. In a bid to reduce federal spending on Medicaid, the Senate bill proposed a few changes. Among them was a new work requirement of 80 hours a month for adults. The bill was also going to put limits on Medicaid provider taxes.

[Richard Rubin]

These are taxes that states impose on health care providers and then essentially give back to the health care providers. But it's done in a way that increases the federal government spending on Medicaid.

[Andi Minoff]

Some Senate Republicans supported changes to Medicaid, arguing that they would save the federal government money. But other Republicans worried about the impact on rural hospitals and their constituents access to care. Here's Lisa Murkowski from Alaska. When it comes to Medicaid, those cuts that would harm Alaskan beneficiaries, that's not something that I can take home. Right.

[Richard Rubin]

The Senate is still a very rural institution. Right. Two senators per state. Those sparsely populated states are heavily Republican. And so anything that really hit rural hospitals was going to be a problem. And so the Senate solved that in part by adding a rural hospital fund.

[Andi Minoff]

The fund would allocate over $50 billion for rural hospitals to be distributed over the next five years. This fund helped to allay concerns of senators like Murkowski and Josh Hawley from Missouri. But the bill's approach to Medicaid also rankled some Republican senators in the opposite direction.

[Richard Rubin]

There was actually a problem on the other side of the Republican conference. You had a number of senators on the more conservative wing of the Republican Party who wanted even more Medicaid Cuts. And this is one of those, you know, squeeze the balloon and see what happens sort of things, because you make changes to satisfy one person and that irritates somebody else. So this is a very complex exercise, but it's also really challenging because they're doing lots of things at once here.

[Andi Minoff]

All right, so another big bone of contention in this bill has been clean energy. What is President Trump's agenda when it comes to clean energy for this legislation?

[Richard Rubin]

I mean, so look, the President describes what Democrats did in the 2022 Inflation Reduction act as the green news scam. He does not like tax credits for wind and solar in particular, and he's urged Republicans to ratchet those back. And again, like on Medicaid, we've seen a divide among Republicans. The thing about clean energy tax breaks is a lot of those projects that have been created since 2022 are happening in Republican states and Republican districts. Right?

[Andi Minoff]

Right.

[Richard Rubin]

So, same thing. Republicans represent these rural, sparsely populated areas. That's where there's land and availability for wind and large winds and solar projects.

[Andi Minoff]

To sweeten the deal for senators like Alaska's Murkowski and Iowa's Jo Ernst and Chuck Grassley, Senate Republicans made some changes. They're still phasing out subsidies for green energy projects, but they're doing it more slowly. They've also removed a proposed tax on wind and solar projects. And then there was the third big sticking point in this, the budget deficit. That's after the break. Psst.

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[Andi Minoff]

So, Rich, we talked about two big sticking points in this bill, Medicaid and clean energy. But there is a third sticking point, which is the deficit. How would the Senate's version of this bill impact the deficit?

[Richard Rubin]

If you ask Senate Republicans, it reduces the deficit. If you look at it the way the Congressional Budget Office and most budget experts do it, it increases the deficit.

[Andi Minoff]

If that sounds a little bit confusing, it is. On the one hand, Senate Republicans are arguing that the tax cuts in this bill aren't really new. They're just extending tax cuts we already have, and therefore, they should not be calculated as a New hit to the deficit.

[Richard Rubin]

Basically, Senate Republicans are saying, okay, we all know we're going to extend the expiring tax cuts, so don't count that.

[Andi Minoff]

On the other hand, that's not the.

[Richard Rubin]

Way Congress normally looks at things. Congress normally says, well, you have to look at what the law is. Congress did not account for tax cuts beyond 2025. They didn't enact them. Republicans chose this expiration date.

[Andi Minoff]

And therefore, by continuing these tax cuts, Republicans are making a change that does impact the deficit pretty significantly.

[Richard Rubin]

Then this bill adds about $3.4 trillion to budget deficits over the next decade.

[Andi Minoff]

That's a very different number. How are, you know, everyday people, news consumers, supposed to make sense of those numbers?

[Richard Rubin]

Yeah, I mean, it's challenging, right? I mean, I think we've tried to kind of explain as best we can for people. In some ways, it helps to have both numbers. It's different from how Congress has done it before. And Democrats certainly call it a gimmick.

[Andi Minoff]

On Monday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer accused his Republican colleagues of using, quote, fake math to hide the true cost of their bill. Republican Mike Crapo, who chairs the Senate Finance Committee, said that the accounting was something that, quote, 90% of Americans would intuitively understand. If you take the point of view that this bill will increase the deficit, what is increasing the deficit the most?

[Richard Rubin]

I mean, it's the extension of the tax cuts, right? Republicans view the 2017 tax cuts as a roaring success. They came into 2025 saying those tax cuts were great, people had more money, businesses were able to invest. It's great for estates, great for farms, great for business owners, great for average people. It was good. And that is the core of what this bill does. From a fiscal perspective.

[Andi Minoff]

The Senate's version of the bill would extend most of Trump's 2017 tax cuts. Those included reducing tax rates, increasing the estate tax exemption and limiting deductions. Additionally, it includes new provisions designed to largely make good on Trump's campaign promises, not to tax tips and overtime pay. What about spending? Does this bill increase spending at all?

[Richard Rubin]

There are spending increases in here, so there's maybe 300 billion ish total in border security and national defense. So there's a lot of money in here that will go toward immigration enforcement, toward missile defense, to, you know, all the kinds of shipbuilding. A lot of the President's priorities for the Defense Department and for immigration enforcement, but those are outweighed by the spending reductions on Medicaid and SNAP and elsewhere on net. This bill lowers spending.

[Andi Minoff]

Who got this bill over the line. And who did Republicans lose in this vote?

[Richard Rubin]

Yeah, Senate Republicans lost three votes. Rand Paul of Kentucky said he loved everything in the bill and would voted for it, but it had the increase in the debt limit, so that was one. Susan Collins of Maine wanted more money for rural health care and was concerned about the Medicaid cuts. She voted no. She's up for reelection next year. Thom Tellis of North Carolina shared some of her concerns. Came out as a very firm no over the weekend. So those are the three no's that put a lot of pressure in two areas. One is the conservatives, particularly Ron Johnson, who had complained about this bill for weeks and said it was rushed and couldn't happen. He eventually voted yes. And then the last was Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. And she got basically three things, some of which we've talked about. One is the change in clean energy tax credits. Two was taking the rural healthcare fund up from 25 billion to 50 billion. And so she was able to get a bunch of things for her unique state. She said she didn't really like the bill and she wants the House to change it, but she was able to get enough for Alaska in there that she was able to vote for it.

[Andi Minoff]

With Lisa Murkowski on board, the Senate bill passed just before noon on Tuesday. Vice President J.D. vance cast the tie breaking vote.

[Richard Rubin]

On this vote, the yeas are 50, the nays are 50. The Senate being evenly divided, the Vice President votes in the affirmative. The bill as amended, is passed.

[Andi Minoff]

What was that moment like?

[Richard Rubin]

Well, that moment was 27 hours in the making, so I think everyone was a little fried. You know, there's a sense of relief and exhaustion. It's sort of a last day of school, feeling for the side that wins. You know, we can just go home now.

[Andi Minoff]

The bill now heads back to the House for approval before Trump's self imposed deadline of July 4th. It remains to be seen if the Republicans will have enough votes to pass it.

[Richard Rubin]

So the House doesn't have to pass the Senate version. Right, The House, you know, if you remember civics class, the House can change it.

[Andi Minoff]

So are they going to do it? Are they going to get this legislation to President Trump's desk by July 4th?

[Richard Rubin]

Maybe. I mean, I keep saying that the shrug emoji is undefeated in this process. So far it has been highly variable, highly uncertain, but inexorable in some way because Republicans really do want to get these tax cuts done. So anytime we've seen that, it seems like this thing might be in trouble, that doesn't mean that the effort to extend the tax cuts and make a bunch of other changes is in trouble. Republicans really, really want to find a way to do it. This may be the way. It may get through the House, it may take some more changes, but something roughly like this is on the way.

[Andi Minoff]

That's all for today. Wednesday, July 2. The Journal is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. Additional reporting in this episode from Natalie Andrews, Olivia Bevers, Jas Lee, and Lindsay Wise. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.