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- [00:09]
Jessica Mendoza
Hi there. I'm Jessica Mendoza. I just wanted to introduce myself. I'm the co host of the Journal podcast. I Live in Washington D.C. on Tuesday afternoon, I opened up WhatsApp to record a voice note, a message to a man in Tehran, one of many people inside Iran that our reporters have been able to speak to in recent weeks. I wanted to know how people there were feeling this week as the world counted down to a Tuesday night deadline set by President Trump. He was threatening to strike Iran's power plants, bridges and other critical infrastructure. And warning in a social media post that, quote, a whole civilization will die tonight if Iran didn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Within minutes, my WhatsApp pinged. The man had responded. Reporter Hamrazbayan translated for both of us in Farsi and English. Salaam.
- [01:04]
Jared Malson
See you.
- [01:05]
Civil Engineer in Tehran
Hello. I'm 38 years old. I'm a civil engineer and I manage construction projects. Alongside that, my wife and I run a cafe and a restaurant.
- [01:19]
Jessica Mendoza
There were a few hours till the deadline and he was at home with friends, bracing for a potentially serious escalation of the conflict.
- [01:30]
Civil Engineer in Tehran
Tonight, we've invited two of our friends over to our home just to be together. It might be the last night we have electricity. Right now we are having a small gathering. By tomorrow morning when we wake up, very bad things may have happened.
- [01:55]
Jessica Mendoza
Less than 90 minutes before Trump's deadline, the US and Iran agreed to a two week ceasefire. Trump's threats were off for now. For many across Iran, the cease fire brought a wave of relief after weeks of intense bombing. But the two week pause looks fragile. The man I'd been speaking to told me that for him, the anxiety hasn't lifted.
- [02:25]
Civil Engineer in Tehran
This ceasefire has also made us worried whether in the next two weeks they will reach a final agreement. Because right now, both sides of the war are claiming victory. People are both happy and afraid at the same time. We have to wait two weeks to see which direction this situation will move in.
- [02:50]
Jessica Mendoza
Welcome to the Journal, our show about money, business and power. I'm Jessica Mendoza. It's Thursday, April 9th. Coming up on the show Inside Iran. During a fragile ceasefire.
- [03:12]
Jared Malson
Foreign
- [03:16]
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- [03:45]
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- [04:49]
Jessica Mendoza
For weeks now, people inside Iran have been living with this constant tension. What happens next? With the tentative ceasefire in place, I wanted to understand what regular Iranians had been living through. I started by sitting down with our colleague Jared Malson, who covers the Middle east from Turkey, and he reminded me that many Iranians were already suffering even before the bombing campaign began.
- [05:12]
Jared Malson
Well, so to begin with, you have to put this in context to set the stage of where Iran was before the war, which is the country was in a very severe economic crisis. You had this collapsing currency, a surge in price inflation, a rising cost of food, and inability to sort of make economic decisions which caused these protests over the winter and really a huge uprising against the government. The regime responded with a deadly crackdown in which they sent security forces to open fire on those crowds of people.
- [05:50]
Jessica Mendoza
A new video appears to show protesters
- [05:52]
Jared Malson
in Iran being shot, killing thousands of people in one of the worst, deadliest political crackdowns in recent world history. Anywhere.
- [06:01]
Jessica Mendoza
Over a few days in January, Iranian security forces shot and killed thousands of protesters in the streets.
- [06:08]
Indeed Sponsor Voice
Tonight, mounting evidence shows there is a deadly crackdown on Iranian protesters.
- [06:13]
Jared Malson
Reports that thousands of anti government protesters
- [06:17]
Jessica Mendoza
have been killed during a brutal crackdown. The exact death toll has been hard to confirm, but some human rights groups estimate that over 10,000 people were killed. Just a few weeks later, the US and Israel launched their war on Iran and life got even harder for many Iranians.
- [06:38]
Jared Malson
People that we spoke to on the ground in Iran talked about how the bombings were shaking their buildings at night, waking up their children, blowing out the windows of their houses, and just causing a lot of fear and anxiety about the future of the country. My colleagues and I spoke to a lot of people who talked about how even for the great many people that are opposed to the regime and including some who wanted the US And Israel to attack, who were really desperate for change, these attacks were so intense that it was pushing the country to the brink of state failure.
- [07:17]
Jessica Mendoza
Here's White House spokeswoman Caroline Levitt.
- [07:19]
Indeed Sponsor Voice
In total, more than 13,000 targets across Iran were struck. Again, this is in the matter of just 38 days.
- [07:28]
Jessica Mendoza
The bombing campaign has mainly focused on military targets, but civilian infrastructure has also been affected.
- [07:35]
Jared Malson
People are worried about, yeah, just about institutions, vital services, critical infrastructure unraveling, and that there was a risk of chaos within the country. And it was also becoming clear that the regime is not going anywhere. That is a view that many people have told me. For example, in my reporting, where I visited the Turkish border with Iran a few weeks ago, where I spoke to about two dozen people, almost all of those people said a version of the same thing where they said, you know, we don't like this government. We want to get rid of them, but we also don't want another country to come in and bomb us.
- [08:17]
Jessica Mendoza
One of the people our colleagues talked to was the civil engineer in Tehran I'd been messaging. It was late on Tuesday evening for him, and he was in his apartment with friends.
- [08:33]
Civil Engineer in Tehran
I'm at home right now in a neighborhood in northwest Tehran at the moment. People who oppose the war, who have been present in the streets of Tehran for the past 37 days, marching and showing their support for the government, have been gathered in a main square near my home and are continuing their march. I can hear them from behind my window.
- [09:01]
Jessica Mendoza
We kept exchanging messages about what it's been like to live through the war. He described a strange juxtaposition.
- [09:11]
Civil Engineer in Tehran
War is a very strange thing. You can be sitting there discussing, signing a contract with a swimming pool contractor, while at the same time hearing explosions in the distance. Or today we went out for lunch and suddenly the sound of explosions filled the air. Every time I hear an explosion, I immediately think about where I can take shelter. I keep my mouth open so that if an explosion happens nearby, my eardrums won't be damaged. In a way, you just learn to live with it. These days, the weather in Tehran is very pleasant. Spring here is usually beautiful. And this year, because of the heavy rainfall, the air is more humid and very enjoyable, except during the times when explosions happen. Today one happened near our home. When that happens, the smell of burning rises along with dust and the scent of.
- [10:33]
Jared Malson
We also talked to people about how they were just bracing for the worst. You know, stocking up on canned goods, water, batteries, fueling their cars and just bracing for impact.
- [10:45]
Jessica Mendoza
That's our colleague Jared again.
- [10:47]
Jared Malson
And then you have to imagine if you've been living under four or five weeks of bombing and just trying to breathe through that, and then the President of the United States is posting about how he's going to end civilization in your country. How would you feel? So I just think the level of fear and uncertainty and anxiety was just absolutely unimaginable.
- [11:15]
Jessica Mendoza
Then came the ceasefire. By that point, it was in the early hours of the morning in Tehran and my WhatsApp chat had gone quiet. I sent one more message. I know it's really late there, so I don't know if you're sleeping, but around 7pm Eastern Time, President Trump announced that there would be a two week ceasefire on the condition that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. I just wanted to know how you feel about that. You know, how did you and your family and friends react when you heard this news and does it change anything for you and your family? Four hours later, a thumbs up emoji lit up my WhatsApp chat. Then this message came through.
- [12:12]
Civil Engineer in Tehran
No, I don't think it will change anything for me because the most important point is that the necessary agreement needs to happen between Iran and the United States. Given the way these two countries deal with each other, I consider the changes of an agreement to be low. I think these two weeks will pass with a lot of anxiety.
- [12:34]
Jared Malson
Let's go off the chimchader for we often meet that.
- [12:39]
Jessica Mendoza
So far the ceasefire is holding, but there are big challenges to converting it into a lasting peace. That's next. The ceasefire has now been in place for two days. As we're recording this, there's an uneasy calm. Iran has not launched any attacks on neighboring Gulf countries for more than 24 hours. The US has also paused its bombing campaign, but issues remain. Israel is still launching strikes against Lebanon, something that could derail the ceasefire. And crucially, the actual terms of the ceasefire haven't been agreed to yet.
- [13:24]
Jared Malson
So the most important thing to know about this ceasefire is that it is a classic Trump deal in the sense that you have an initial announcement of a deal with many of the details to be worked out later. So there's a lot of inbuilt fragility. To this ceasefire arrangement. And a lot that can still go wrong.
- [13:49]
Jessica Mendoza
Formal negotiations are set to take place in Pakistan later this week. U.S. officials are expected to talk to their Iranian counterparts to hash out the details of a long term peace agreement. And there is a lot to work out. Jared, I'm curious what you think the biggest sticking points ahead are, because on the one hand, you know, both sides are saying, you know, we did it, we won a big victory here. But on the other, you know, it sounds like there's a lot of daylight between the two sides.
- [14:17]
Jared Malson
So the Strait of Hormuz is a great example. And it's also potentially the most salient issue, obviously because of the massive historic disruption to the world oil supply and the rising gas prices and inflation globally and so on. The Americans want the Strait to be opened unconditionally. They want to return to the status quo prior to the war. That's also importantly what the Gulf countries want to. And the Iranians show no indication of going back to that previous status quo. They want to maintain control.
- [14:52]
Jessica Mendoza
Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz. And Jared told us that not much has changed since the start of the ceasefire. According to shipping data from the snp, only four ships crossed the strait on Wednesday. That's less traffic than we've seen in the days before. And there's no sign that Iran and its military wing, the irgc, are willing to give up control.
- [15:13]
Jared Malson
They said in their statements that ships that cross now during this interim two week period have to do so in coordination with their armed forces. We understand from our reporting that means in coordination with the IRGC specifically. And so there's a lot to be figured out here. Will the Americans accept that? Will industry accept it? You know, talking to people in the shipping and oil industries today, what I understand is that there might be a scenario down the line where there's an imperative to move the oil and to get these tankers out of there, where they might be willing to work with the Iranians under some circumstances. But there's a lot that would have to be figured out, right, because how do you pay a fee to a government that is heavily sanctioned, that has no access to the international financial system? We understand that that might be done through cryptocurrency, or the payments might be done in Chinese yuan, for example. But how all of that exactly would work? Industry is asking, how hard will the Americans push them on this issue in the negotiations? Are they willing to blow up the ceasefire just over this issue? We don't really have answers to all those Questions. Right.
- [16:28]
Jessica Mendoza
How is the Iranian regime approaching negotiations with the US?
- [16:33]
Jared Malson
One of the tactics of this regime is that they play hardball in negotiations. They did this in the nuclear negotiations over the 2015 nuclear deal in the Obama administration, the so called JCPOA, in which negotiators that worked on that deal told me that they would negotiate one day and they would think that, okay, we've settled this issue, and then the next day the Iranians would come back and just say, oh, no, that issue was reopened. We didn't really agree to that. The Iranians really sued up for this. They used these kind of tactical maneuvers in the context of negotiations to try to confuse and outmaneuver their opponents.
- [17:15]
Jessica Mendoza
In the wake of the ceasefire, Iran declared victory in the war. Jared says that they'll likely want to keep that momentum as talks get underway.
- [17:23]
Jared Malson
Again, to use the Strait of Hormuz as an example, this wasn't an issue in the negotiations six weeks ago. It wasn't on the table. The two sides were talking about the nuclear issue. The Americans wanted to also place restrictions on Iran's missile program, for example. The Strait of Hormuz was not in those talks, and now it is.
- [17:46]
Jessica Mendoza
No matter how these negotiations go, Jared says the entire region is at an inflection point.
- [17:53]
Jared Malson
We are going to wake up to a very different Middle east when the dust settles from this. I'll put it this way again. Iran's influence in the region was at a nadir prior to this. Now, five or six weeks into this war, the tables have turned and they now have new lines of international influence, not just in the region where they've totally changed the balance of power in the Persian Gulf vis a vis the Gulf states, but they also have leverage over the global economy and all kinds of countries in Europe and Asia and so on that are reliant on Gulf oils.
- [18:39]
Jessica Mendoza
There are 12 days left in the ceasefire. For the civil engineer I was messaging in Tehran, he's also counting down to a much more personal deadline. He's about to become a father. His wife is due around the same time the ceasefire is set to expire.
- [19:02]
Civil Engineer in Tehran
My wife is now in her 37th week of pregnancy, and I think our son will be born in about two or three weeks. Throughout this war, we have really hoped, and still do, that our son will be born at a time when peace between Iran and the United States has been established so that he can live in an Iran where the shadow of war is no longer hanging overhead. An Iran whose differences with the US have been resolved. That would be certainly a better world for him.
- [19:57]
Jessica Mendoza
That's all for today, Thursday, April 9th. The journal is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. Special thanks to Hamraz Bayan for translating the WhatsApp messages. Additional reporting in this episode from Hamrazbayan, Rebecca Fung, Hanna Mousavi, and Summer Saeed. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.
- [20:23]
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