Iran and the U.S. Were Set To Negotiate. Then Israel Attacked.

Summary

Summary of "Iran and the U.S. Were Set To Negotiate. Then Israel Attacked."

Podcast: The Journal
Hosts: Ryan Knutson and Jessica Mendoza
Episode Title: Iran and the U.S. Were Set To Negotiate. Then Israel Attacked.
Release Date: June 13, 2025

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Introduction to the Attack

On the night of June 12, 2025, Israel launched a significant preemptive strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, an unprecedented move in the region's history. The attack, described by Israeli authorities as targeting Iran's military leadership and nuclear scientists, involved dozens of jets executing strikes on critical military and nuclear sites. As reported by Andi Minoff at [00:05], "Israel has launched what it calls a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities."

Details of the Strike

The operation resulted in the death of high-ranking Iranian officials, including the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the chief of Iran’s military staff ([00:05] Andi Minoff). Additionally, state media reported civilian casualties, with residential areas in Tehran being hit ([00:27] Michael Gordon). The targets included major nuclear installations such as Natanz and Fordo, which are pivotal to Iran's uranium enrichment efforts ([02:28] Andi Minoff).

Impact on Iran’s Nuclear Program

Iran has been rapidly advancing its nuclear capabilities, enriching uranium to levels approaching 60%, a significant step towards weapons-grade material ([03:23] Michael Gordon). This acceleration has raised alarms within the international community and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which has expressed concerns over Iran's compliance with non-proliferation obligations ([03:52] Andi Minoff).

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that the strikes are just the beginning, signaling a prolonged campaign aimed at dismantling Iran's nuclear ambitions ([00:56] Andi Minoff). Michael Gordon notes, “Israel's contention is they can kill enough personnel and do enough destruction to the Iranian nuclear infrastructure that it will set back the program in a decisive way” ([08:27]).

Context of U.S.-Iran Negotiations

Prior to the strike, the United States and Iran were engaged in delicate negotiations to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, from which the U.S. had previously withdrawn. Since April, five rounds of talks aimed to limit Iran's enrichment capabilities while allowing for civil nuclear development ([04:25] Andi Minoff). However, fundamental disagreements persisted, particularly over Iran's right to enrich uranium ([04:58] Michael Gordon).

Despite ongoing negotiations, Israel grew increasingly impatient, doubting the feasibility of a diplomatic resolution that would sufficiently curb Iran's nuclear progress. This skepticism culminated in the decision to launch the strike just days before the next round of talks was scheduled ([06:17] Andi Minoff).

Timing and Strategic Implications

The timing of the strike was strategic, occurring amidst the negotiations and catching Iran off-guard. Michael Gordon explains, “Iran's generals were not in their bunker. Their scientists weren’t hiding in secure facilities” ([10:00] Michael Gordon). This surprise element allowed Israel to inflict significant damage before Iran could consolidate its defense or retaliate effectively.

U.S. Involvement and Reactions

U.S. President Donald Trump initially advocated for negotiations but later appeared to endorse the effectiveness of Israel's actions. While Trump stated he was informed in advance of the attack, he has shifted his stance to support the strike, suggesting it as a means of leveraging further concessions from Iran ([10:31] Andi Minoff).

Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified that the U.S. was not directly involved in the strikes but did not rule out supporting Israel defensively. The U.S. is expected to enhance its military presence in the Middle East, potentially drawing into the conflict by protecting Israeli assets from Iranian retaliatory measures ([11:06] Andi Minoff).

Iran’s Immediate Response

In retaliation, Iran launched dozens of missiles at Israel, with Israeli defense systems actively working to intercept them ([12:50] Andi Minoff). This escalation has heightened fears of a broader regional conflict, potentially involving the United States if Iran were to target American assets in the Persian Gulf.

Future Prospects and Ongoing Negotiations

Despite the recent violence, U.S.-Iran negotiations were set to continue, with diplomats scheduled to meet in Oman. However, the current instability raises questions about Iran's willingness to return to the negotiating table and the feasibility of reaching a lasting agreement ([12:50] Andi Minoff).

Michael Gordon highlights the delicate balance ahead: “There is a question whether some of the Iranian military establishment might blame the United States for what happened and feel that the United States is complicit and take military action against US Assets in the Persian Gulf” ([11:50] Michael Gordon).

Conclusion

The Israeli strike on Iran marks a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics, abruptly halting diplomatic efforts and sparking a potential escalation of conflict. As the situation unfolds, the international community remains watchful of the ramifications for regional stability and global security.

“Israel's perspective has been that they were very skeptical that Iran would forgo the right to enrichment and make the kind of concessions at the negotiating table that Israel believes is required to roll back Iran's program.”
— Michael Gordon [06:17]

“Iran's generals were not in their bunker. Their scientists weren't hiding in secure facilities.”
— Michael Gordon [10:00]

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Note: This summary omits sponsor segments, introductory remarks, and concluding credits to focus solely on the episode's content.

Transcript

[Andi Minoff]

Last night, Israel struck Iran. Israel has launched what it calls a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Officials say dozens of jets completed the first stage that included strikes on dozens of military targets. The head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is reportedly dead. The head of Iran's military, their chief of staff, was reportedly killed in targeted strikes.

[Michael Gordon]

State media is also saying that a residential area of Tehran was hit. It is reporting that civilians were killed as well.

[Andi Minoff]

Israel's attack targeted Iran's military leadership and top nuclear scientists. It also struck important sites for the country's nuclear and missile program. And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has signaled that this is just the beginning. This operation will continue for as many.

[Michael Gordon]

Days as it takes.

[Andi Minoff]

How big of a deal is this that Israel struck Iran in this way?

[Michael Gordon]

Well, it's a huge deal because it's never been done before.

[Andi Minoff]

Our colleague Michael Gordon covers national security from Washington, D.C. there have been a.

[Michael Gordon]

Lot of doubts outside the Israeli government and even in Washington whether it would be possible for the Israelis to do lasting damage to Iran's nuclear program. So it's unprecedented.

[Andi Minoff]

Welcome to THE Journal, our show about money, business and power. I'm Andi Minoff. It's Friday, June 13th. Coming up on the show, Israel's unprecedented strike on Iran.

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[Michael Gordon]

At.

[Andi Minoff]

The center of last night's strikes is a concern that Iran may be closer than ever to becoming a nuclear power. Enriched uranium is essential for the development of both nuclear weapons and nuclear energy. And Iran has been working on uranium enrichment for years, including under the terms of a 2015 nuclear deal that the US later pulled out of. Iran has two main enrichment sites. One is underground at Natanz. Another, Fordo, is located deep within a mountain. Iran maintains that it is not pursuing a nuclear weapons program.

[Michael Gordon]

They say it's a nuclear program for purely peaceful purposes. But in the view of experts, it may be a civil nuclear program, but it's one that contains the option for Iran to proceed down a military path. And the telltale signs for that is the level of enrichment work Iran's been doing.

[Andi Minoff]

In recent months, the pace of Iran's nuclear work has rapidly increased.

[Michael Gordon]

They've accumulated enough fissile material that they could have more than half a dozen bombs worth of material within a few weeks. If they were so determined, then it would take them another period of time to take these weapons grade uranium and fashion it into a warhead that could explode. So the programs expanded.

[Andi Minoff]

This has not gone unnoticed by the international community, including by the UN's nuclear watchdog agency.

[Michael Gordon]

The International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly expressed concerns about a number of matters. Iran was enriching uranium at 60%, which is a step toward weapons grade material, and was concerned that Iran was moving in the wrong direction, although it hadn't acquired a nuclear vice.

[Andi Minoff]

Yesterday, the IAEA's Board of Member States, led by the US and European powers, voiced that concern, declaring that Iran had crossed a line by failing to comply with its non proliferation obligations. Immediately afterwards, Iran responded with its own announcement. It said it was on the cusp of opening a third nuclear enrichment site. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has been negotiating with Iran over its nuclear program. Since April, representatives from the two countries have met for five rounds of talks.

[Michael Gordon]

The US goal from the beginning under President Trump has been that Iran can have nuclear reactors, it can have a civil nuclear program, but what it can't do is, is enrich its own uranium. And the thinking behind that is that this would deprive Iran of amassing the material for a potential nuclear weapon. Iran's position is that they will never forgo the right to enrich uranium and indeed they secured that right under the 2015 nuclear agreement. So there was a fundamental contradiction at the core of these talks.

[Andi Minoff]

The US and Iran seemed far apart in negotiations. Still, the two countries planned to have another round of talks this Sunday. Steve Witkoff, the US Special envoy to the Middle east, had proposed a framework for resolving the conflict. Iran was expected to respond and President Trump appeared hopeful.

[Michael Gordon]

I want to have an agreement with Iran. We're fairly close to an agreement. We are fairly close to a pretty good he was optimistic in his pronouncements. Nobody else was optimistic.

[Andi Minoff]

Among those who weren't optimistic was Israel. Israel was not part of these negotiations, but it has long viewed Iran's nuclear program as an existential threat.

[Michael Gordon]

Israel's perspective has been that they were very skeptical that Iran would forego the right to enrichment and make the kind of concessions at the negotiating table that Israel believes is required to roll back Iran's program. They were concerned Iran was going to play for time in the talks. Trump had talked about a two month deadline, which by the way is up now. But Israel is concerned to become three months, four months, five months, a year. And during the course of that, Iran would be making gains in its program.

[Andi Minoff]

Israel was done waiting for the US And Iran to reach an agreement. And so just days before the negotiations were set to happen. That's next.

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[Andi Minoff]

Israel's attacks on Iran unfolded in waves overnight. Who and what did Israel target in this attack?

[Michael Gordon]

Well, they targeted the senior military leadership. They targeted a half dozen or so Iranian nuclear scientists. They targeted Natanz, which is a major nuclear installation. That's what we know.

[Andi Minoff]

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, acknowledged the damage Friday morning. He said that the country would quickly replace the military commanders and scientists who'd been killed. Is it too early to say what the impact of this strike will be on Iran's nuclear program?

[Michael Gordon]

It's a little early. I mean, the common view has been that Israel could damage Iran's nuclear program but not eliminate it, and that not even the US could eliminate it because some of it's underground, because it's dispersed. But Israel is challenging that theory, and their contention is they can kill enough personnel and they can do enough destruction to the Iranian nuclear infrastructure that it will set back the program in a decisive way.

[Andi Minoff]

According to a senior Israeli official, the country has planned 14 days of operations. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the goal of the operation was to roll back the existential threat that he said Iran poses to Israel. So we talked about how the US Was in the midst of these negotiations when these attacks happened. What do you make of that timing?

[Michael Gordon]

Well, Israel wanted to strike earlier than it did. They ran into some opposition from President Trump who wanted to try negotiations, and Israel's been using the argument. Well, you tried negotiations for two months, and you're not getting too far, so it's time to move on. There was a degree of impatience on Israel's part, but the fact that talks were scheduled worked to Israel's advantage because Iran clearly did not anticipate this attack Thursday night.

[Andi Minoff]

If Iran's leaders had been gambling that Israel wouldn't strike in the midst of negotiations. They were proven wrong.

[Michael Gordon]

Iran's generals were not in their bunker. Their scientists weren't hiding in secure facilities. They were hitting and eliminated and were vulnerable in a way that they wouldn't have been if they had thought Israel was on the cusp of military action.

[Andi Minoff]

Iran's foreign minister asked the UN to condemn Israel's attack, saying in a letter that the actions, quote, amount to a declaration of war. Did Trump know that this attack was coming? What has he said about that?

[Michael Gordon]

He said, including to the Wall Street Journal, that he was informed in advance. He hasn't given particulars as to what he knew at what point. And since the attack appears to be successful, he's gone from cautioning against it to endorsing it. He's almost taking credit for it at this point. He's, he said it was a very effective and that Iran should yield now and, and make concessions so they're going to get a hit again. So he went from saying publicly Israel shouldn't do this to saying it was an effective means of leverage.

[Andi Minoff]

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US Wasn't involved in the strikes, but didn't exclude the possibility that the US could help Israel defend itself. Could the US Be pulled further into this conflict between Israel and Iran?

[Michael Gordon]

Yes. US can be expected to move more assets to the Middle east, and it's very logical for some of those to be involved in trying to blunt attacks on Israel by Iranian drones and Iranian missiles. So if the US Is helping to provide a shield for Israel, which is wielding a sword against Iran, it's implicitly involved in the conflict.

[Andi Minoff]

What will you be watching for in the coming days?

[Michael Gordon]

Well, the Israelis have some big challenges ahead. People are looking to see what these Iranians do by way of a military response. There is also a question whether some of the Iranian military establishment might blame the United States for what happened and feel that the United States is complicit and take military action against US Assets in the Persian Gulf by firing missiles or drones at them. That's a big concern. Secretary Rubio warned Iran not to do that. There's a risk for Iran in doing it. They already have their hands full dealing with Israel. Do they really want to deal with the United States at the same time? I would think not. But there is certainly a possibility that Iran might try to broaden the conflict by taking on the United States in the region, though it's been careful not to do so at this point.

[Andi Minoff]

Today, Iran struck back at Israel, firing dozens of missiles, which Israel said it was working to intercept. The US Navy has directed a destroyer towards the eastern Mediterranean. A second could follow, and the Trump administration has said that US Negotiators will be in Oman on Sunday to continue talks. It's unclear whether Iran or meet them at the negotiating table. That's all for today. Friday, June 13 the Journal is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. Additional reporting in this episode by Dov Lieber, Lawrence Norman and Alexander Ward. The show is made by Katherine Brewer, Pia Gadkari, Carlos Garcia, Rachel Humphries, Sophie Kodner, Ryan Knudsen, Matt Kwong, Colin McNulty, Jessica Mendoza, Laura Morris, Enrique Perez de la Rosa, Sarah Platt, Allen Rodriguez Espinosa, Heather Rogers, Pier Singh, Jeevika Verma, Lisa Wang, Catherine Whalen, Tatiana Zemis and me, Annie Minoff. Our engineers are Griffin Tanner, Nathan Singapak and Peter Leonard. Our theme music is by so Wylie. Additional music this week from Katherine Anderson, Peter Leonard, Bobby Lord, Emma Munger, Nathan Singapak, Griffin Tanner, so Wiley and Blue Dot Sessions. Fact checking by Jennifer Goren and Mary Mathis. Thanks for listening. See you Monday.