Iran May Be Running Out of Options

Summary

The Journal: Iran May Be Running Out of Options – Detailed Summary

Episode Release Date: June 17, 2025
Hosts: Annie Minoff and Suna Engel Rasmussen
Produced by: The Wall Street Journal & Gimlet

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1. Introduction

In the latest episode of The Journal, hosts Annie Minoff and Suna Engel Rasmussen delve into the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. The episode, titled "Iran May Be Running Out of Options," examines the recent surge in Israeli military actions against Iran, the potential for regime change, and the broader implications for the Middle East.

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2. Escalation of Israeli Attacks on Iran

Annie Minoff opens the discussion by highlighting a dramatic incident where an Iranian state newscaster's broadcast was interrupted by a blast, marking one of several such events over the past five days. This escalation is part of Israel's intensified efforts against Iran.

Annie Minoff [00:10]:
"On Monday, an Iranian state newscaster was in the middle of a broadcast when her coverage was interrupted by a blast."

Suna Engel Rasmussen explains Israel’s objectives, emphasizing that while the official stance is to cripple Iran's nuclear program, the nature of the attacks suggests a deeper aim of regime change.

Suna Engel Rasmussen [00:43]:
"Publicly, Israel and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have said that they want to cripple Iran's nuclear program... it looks more like regime change than it does targeting a nuclear program."

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3. Iran's Political Structure and Khamenei's Leadership

The episode provides a historical overview of Iran's political landscape, focusing on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's role as the Supreme Leader since 1979. Khamenei's leadership has been pivotal in transforming Iran into a regional powerhouse.

Suna Engel Rasmussen [03:18]:
"He's almost like a pope-like figure... a representative of God on earth, but he's also a religious figurehead for millions of Shia Muslims across Iran, but also across the Middle East."

Khamenei took power post the devastating Iran-Iraq War, which left Iran financially and socially crippled. His leadership is credited with rebuilding the nation and establishing a formidable military presence in the region.

Suna Engel Rasmussen [03:39]:
"He pulled off something that was actually quite miraculous, like he basically turned Iran into a Middle Eastern superpower."

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4. Iran's Regional Power and the Revolutionary Guard

Central to Iran's military strength is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Initially established to protect the nascent Islamic Republic from internal and external threats, the IRGC has evolved into a key instrument of Iran’s regional strategy.

Suna Engel Rasmussen [04:34]:
"As an elite part of the Iranian military, it was originally established to protect the new state from both internal and external threats."

The IRGC has been instrumental in supporting Shia militias across the Middle East, including groups like Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, solidifying Iran’s influence.

Annie Minoff [04:43]:
"The Revolutionary Guard... also played a key role in the region, building up Shia militias that were friendly to Iran."

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5. The Nuclear Program and Its Implications

Iran's nuclear program has been a cornerstone of its strategy to assert regional dominance and ensure national security. While Iran claims the program is peaceful, concerns about potential weaponization have persisted.

Annie Minoff [05:47]:
"Another key prong of Khamenei's strategy was building up Iran's nuclear program... the UN's nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, has also consistently said that Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapons program."

The nuclear initiative has not only bolstered Iran’s geopolitical standing but also served as a deterrent against adversaries, reinforcing the country's perception of strength and stability.

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6. Recent Israeli Strikes and Iran's Vulnerabilities

The past year has seen a shift in the balance of power, with Israel successfully targeting Iran’s military infrastructure. Initial exchanges in April demonstrated Iran's offensive limitations against Israeli defenses.

Annie Minoff [07:05]:
"Israel started by taking out one Iranian ally after the other and basically got away with it."

The recent Operation Rising Lion marks a significant intensification, with Israel targeting top Iranian military leaders and key nuclear facilities, including the Natanz enrichment site. These strikes have undermined Iran's missile capabilities and eroded its deterrent posture.

Suna Engel Rasmussen [08:28]:
"Iran is sort of running out of ways that it can strike back at Israel, at least on a large scale."

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7. Iran's Limited Options Moving Forward

Facing unprecedented pressure, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei is confronted with a dire set of choices, each fraught with significant risks.

Annie Minoff [09:05]:
"Suna says Khamenei has basically three options for how to move forward."

1. Continue Fighting:
   Persisting in military retaliation could either fail to deter further Israeli actions or escalate the conflict uncontrollably.

   Suna Engel Rasmussen [09:45]:
   "He can choose to strike back at Israel... runs the risk of not hitting Israel hard enough or hitting Israel so hard that Israel expands its strikes against Iran."

2. Negotiate:
   Entering negotiations, potentially re-entering nuclear agreements, would require significant concessions, risking internal dissent and undermining the nuclear program built over decades.

   Annie Minoff [10:23]:
   "But that would risk alienating his hardline supporters in Iran, not to mention giving up a nuclear program he's worked for decades to build."

3. Seek a Nuclear Weapon:
   Pursuing a nuclear armament path would provoke international condemnation and likely lead to intensified military actions against Iran.

   Suna Engel Rasmussen [10:53]:
   "It could probably also prompt Israel to continue to target Iran's nuclear facilities."

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8. Potential Outcomes and Regional Implications

Iran’s current predicament has broader implications for the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape. The potential dismantling of Iran's nuclear ambitions could diminish its influence, alter regional power dynamics, and impact alliances formed over the past two decades.

Annie Minoff [12:20]:
"If Iran were to either give up or strongly curtail its nuclear program, what would that mean for the country and for this regime?"

Suna Engel Rasmussen emphasizes that Iran's transformation into a regional powerhouse is intrinsically linked to its nuclear program. The loss of nuclear deterrence would not only weaken Iran’s standing but also challenge Khamenei's authority domestically.

Suna Engel Rasmussen [12:58]:
"There's no doubt that we are on the brink of a new era in the Middle East... it depends on how Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei fares in this current war."

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9. Conclusion

The episode concludes with a sober assessment of the precarious situation facing Iran. As Israel's military campaign intensifies, the future of the Islamic Republic hangs in the balance. The outcome of this conflict will have profound ramifications for regional stability, power structures, and international relations in the Middle East.

Annie Minoff [13:04]:
"There's no doubt that we are on the brink of a new era in the Middle East... depends on how Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei fares in this current war."

The Journal underscores the critical juncture at which Iran stands, highlighting the limited options available to its leadership and the potential for significant shifts in Middle Eastern geopolitics.

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Additional Reporting by Benoit Foucault, Anat Paled, and Summer Said.

Transcript

[Annie Minoff]

On Monday, an Iranian state newscaster was in the middle of a broadcast when her coverage was interrupted by a blast. It was just one in a series of dramatic moments over the past five days as Israel has escalated its attacks on Iran. Our colleague Suna Engel Rasmussen has been covering the conflict. Suna, what do we know about Israel's objective here?

[Suna Engel Rasmussen]

Publicly, Israel and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have said that they want to cripple Iran's nuclear program. Moments ago, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very surv. But if you talk to Iranians and if you see the nature of the war unfolding in Iran currently, I think there's definitely signs that regime change is on the table. At least if you're targeting the state media of a country that to me looks more like regime change than it does targeting a nuclear program.

[Annie Minoff]

How perilous do things look for Iran right now?

[Suna Engel Rasmussen]

This is the most serious situation that the Islamic Republic has been in since the late 80s. I don't think there's any doubt about that. I think the question now is whether the Islamic Republic, the whole system that has been in power since 1979, survives this war.

[Annie Minoff]

Welcome to THE Journal, our show about money, business and power. I'm Annie Minoff. It's Tuesday, June 17th. Coming up on the show, Iran's government is running out of options. Can it survive?

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[Annie Minoff]

For almost half a century, Iran has been an Islamic theocracy ruled by a cadre of religious leaders. And for more than three decades, the man at the center of that power structure has been the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

[Suna Engel Rasmussen]

He's almost like a pope like figure. And I say that on purpose, like he's both unelected supreme leader, representative of God on earth, but he's also a religious figurehead for millions of Shia Muslims across Iran, but also across the Middle East.

[Annie Minoff]

In his time at the helm, Khamenei has transformed Iran.

[Suna Engel Rasmussen]

He took power at a time when Iran was in ruins. It was in financial ruin. But it was also humiliated and devastated after this deadly war with Iraq, which lasted from 1980 to 1988 and is one of the deadliest wars of the past century on a global scale. And I don't think we can overestimate how much of a historical trauma that is for the Iranians who remember it. So that's the context that Eli Khamenei took power in 1989, and he pulled off something that was actually quite miraculous, like he basically turned Iran into a Middle Eastern superpower.

[Annie Minoff]

Khamenei and his government picked up the pieces after the Iran Iraq war and built Iran into a strong regional power with a formidable military. At its core is Iran's Revolutionary Guard.

[Suna Engel Rasmussen]

As an elite part of the Iranian military, it was originally established to protect the new state from both internal and external threats.

[Annie Minoff]

The Revolutionary Guard kept the peace at home, but it also played a key role in the region, building up Shia militias that were friendly to Iran. Those included Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

[Suna Engel Rasmussen]

One way of looking at this is that Iran had become an aggressor and a colonizer. This is the way that people in Israel, for example, have portrayed it and many other places in the Middle east as well. Another way of looking at this was that Iran was doing this as a type of forward defense. That's the expression they use in Iran, where you have these militias positioned around the region, including on the border with ISRA Israel, as a deterrent against an Israeli or an American attack. And that worked for decades. That worked. It was assumed across the Middle east and in Washington that if Israel or the US were to attack Iran directly, or if they were to go after one of its important allies, for example, Hezbollah, the militia in Lebanon, well, then this axis of resistance that Iran had built would come together and they would attack Israel.

[Annie Minoff]

Another key prong of Khamenei's strategy was building up Iran's nuclear program. Iran says that its nuclear program is peaceful, and the UN's nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, has also consistently said that Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapons program. But the idea that Iran could one day possess nuclear weapons was key to sustaining its power in the region. All of this, cultivating regional allies and raising Iran's nuclear profile helped Khamenei and his government maintain peace and stability.

[Suna Engel Rasmussen]

For years, Iran has been a relatively safe place to live and raise your children and create a life, even if it was obviously under authoritarian rule. But I think this is an important thing to remember, that even Iranians who didn't like or Even despised their own rulers would say that they have conflicted feelings about him.

[Annie Minoff]

Khamenei's ability to keep Iran strong and safe has been key to his government's legitimacy. But that perception of strength has started to crack. Since the beginning of the war in Gaza, Israel has weakened two of Iran's key Hamas and Hezbollah. Syrian rebels also toppled dictator Bashar Al Assad, who is also friendly to Iran. Iran's so called forward defense was faltering.

[Suna Engel Rasmussen]

Israel started by taking out one Iranian ally after the other and basically got away with it. And in that sense I think Iran's unspoken threat, its sort of main deterrence against Israel, turned out to be somewhat of a paper tiger.

[Annie Minoff]

Iran was vulnerable. That only became clear in April of last year when Iran and Israel exchanged fire for the first time.

[Suna Engel Rasmussen]

That was the first time there was a skirmish with missiles between Iran and Israel. And Israel managed to cause severe damage to Iranian anti air defenses. And Iran, even though it sent hundreds of missiles and drones over Israel, didn't actually manage to land a punch that really mattered. That happened again later last year. The same sort of pattern repeated.

[Annie Minoff]

Then came Israel's attack on Iran last week and the paper tiger began to crumple. Over the past five days, Israel has killed top Iranian military leaders. It struck Iranian nuclear facilities, including a key enrichment facility at Natanz. Israel says it's destroyed a third of Iran's missile launchers. And its planes fly freely over Tehran. People are fleeing the city. And according to a human rights group that monitors Iran, more than 220 civilians have died.

[Suna Engel Rasmussen]

We've seen this time around Israel taking out some of the highest ranking, the highest ranking military commanders in the country. Iran could still launch dozens and dozens of missiles but not really damage anything of sort of military significance in Israel. And I think that shows the balance between the two powers in this war. Iran is sort of running out of ways that it can strike back at Israel, at least at a large scale. And we haven't seen it being able to hit Israel the way that it's been hit in return.

[Annie Minoff]

So what are Iran's options now?

[Suna Engel Rasmussen]

Khamenei has no good options.

[Annie Minoff]

Those no good options are next. Suna says Khamenei has basically three options for how to move forward. He can fight, he can negotiate or.

[Suna Engel Rasmussen]

Clandestinely go for a bomb. Yeah, those are the options.

[Annie Minoff]

Each carries its own risks. Take option number one, fighting.

[Suna Engel Rasmussen]

He can choose to strike back at Israel. That's what he's been doing to some extent that runs the risk of not hitting Israel hard enough or hitting Israel so hard that Israel expands its strikes against Iran, and that can have fatal consequences for the system, for the Islamic Republic. He also has the option of basically surrendering. And in this case, that would mean probably striking a nuclear deal with the US and global powers that severely curbs Iran's ability to enrich uranium and keeps it far away from a nuclear weapon.

[Annie Minoff]

But that would risk alienating his hardline supporters in Iran, not to mention giving up a nuclear program he's worked for decades to build.

[Suna Engel Rasmussen]

And then there's perhaps the final option, which is not really a good option either, and that is dashing for a nuclear weapon that would be highly controversial internationally. And it could probably also prompt Israel to continue to target Iran's nuclear facilities. But I think it is an option that's on the table.

[Annie Minoff]

Wow. So. So that's the menu of not great options. What are they going to do? What is Khamenei going to do?

[Suna Engel Rasmussen]

We reported yesterday that Iran has been sending messages through Arab intermediaries that it wants to urgently de escalate the situation and return to the negotiating table with the US Over a new nuclear agreement.

[Annie Minoff]

Iran had been negotiating with the US over its nuclear program prior to Israel's strikes last week. In fact, Iranian and US Negotiators had been planning to meet in Oman last Sunday. Now Iran is pursuing the resumption of those talks with new urgency. The Journal reported yesterday that Iran reached out to Arab intermediaries to signal that it would be open to returning to the negotiating table, but it may be too late. Today, President Trump called for Iran's, quote, unconditional surrender on social media. He also said that the US Knows Khamenei's location. Quote, he is an easy target, but is safe there. We are not going to take him out. In parentheses, kill. At least not for now. Administration officials said President Trump is considering a range of options, including a potential US Strike against Iran. If Iran were to either give up or strongly curtail its nuclear program, what would that mean for the country and for this regime?

[Suna Engel Rasmussen]

Iran has transformed the Middle east over the past two decades. It has become a regional powerhouse. And that status has rested to a large extent on its nuclear program and the threat that it could weaponize its nuclear program. If that threat is gone and the and Iran's nuclear program is either completely removed or it's cut down to size to the extent where was no longer really a threat and it's not a deterrent, that will change Iran's status in the Middle East. It will change Khamenei's ability to implicitly threaten his enemies and it will also change Iran's security calculus at home.

[Annie Minoff]

How would you kind of describe the moment we are in right now for this region, for the Middle East?

[Suna Engel Rasmussen]

There's no doubt that we are on the brink of a new era in the Middle east and all the alliances and power dynamics that have been taken for granted over the past two and a half decades basically since the Iraq war have now been thrown up in the air. And how they land is going to have wide ranging ramifications in Israel, Iran, the entire region and possibly most likely also beyond. And I think how that plays out to a large extent depends on how Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei fares in this current war.

[Annie Minoff]

That's all for today. Tuesday, June 17 the Journal is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. Additional reporting in this episode by Benoit Foucault, Anat Paled and Summer Said. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.