Iran Retaliates After U.S. Strike. How Could This End?

Summary

The Journal: Iran Retaliates After U.S. Strike – How Could This End?

Release Date: June 23, 2025

Hosts: Ryan Knutson and Jessica Mendoza
Production: The Wall Street Journal & Gimlet, in collaboration with Spotify

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1. Introduction and Overview of Recent Events

In the latest episode of The Journal, hosts Ryan Knutson and Jessica Mendoza delve into the escalating tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran following recent military actions. The discussion centers around the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran's subsequent missile attacks targeting American bases in Qatar and Iraq.

2. The U.S. and Israel’s Military Strikes Against Iran

The episode opens with the announcement from the Qatari Defense Ministry that their air defenses successfully intercepted missiles aimed at the Al Udid Air Base, the largest U.S. military installation in the Middle East (00:10). Idaho emphasizes the unprecedented nature of the U.S. and Israel’s coordinated military operation:

Ian: “It was the first time that the United States and Israel have coordinated on a military operation. That's never happened before. So that alone, I think, is a pretty huge deal.” (00:44)

This joint effort marked a significant show of force, highlighting the unique military capabilities of the United States in targeting and degrading Iran's nuclear infrastructure. The destruction of key sites such as Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan was intended to set Iran’s nuclear program back by several years.

3. Iran’s Response: Missile Attacks on U.S. Bases

In retaliation, Iran launched ballistic missiles targeting U.S. military bases in Qatar and Iraq. Jessica Mendoza reports:

Jessica Mendoza: “Today, Iran launched missiles targeting an American military base in Qatar. Officials said Iran also fired on Iraq.” (00:25)

Despite these attacks, all missiles were intercepted, and there were no reported casualties. This response appears to be a calculated move by Iran to demonstrate retaliation without escalating into a full-scale conflict.

4. Current Status and Immediate Consequences

The immediate aftermath of the U.S. strikes has left Iran in a precarious position. The destruction of the Fordo facility, as claimed by President Trump, has been partially corroborated by the UN’s Atomic Energy Agency, though the full extent of the damage remains unclear:

Jessica Mendoza: “President Trump claimed the Fordo site and other key nuclear facilities were, quote, completely and totally obliterated. The UN's Atomic Energy Agency says the damage at Fordo was expected to be very significant, though the extent of the destruction at the underground facility is hard to determine.” (01:37)

Ian underscores Iran’s lack of preparedness for direct military confrontation:

Ian: “Iran was not built to engage in this kind of warfare. It never envisioned the idea of a direct military confrontation between Israel versus Iran. It doesn't have the missile capabilities and it doesn't have the air defense capabilities to be able to go head to head with Israel. So Iran really is in a very difficult position.” (01:59)

5. Potential Escalation Paths

The hosts explore the possible avenues Iran may pursue in response to U.S. and Israeli actions. One significant threat is the targeting of additional U.S. military bases across the Middle East, which could provoke a broader regional conflict:

Ian: “They could just go full bore, just full on war against the US in the region.” (10:29)

Alternatively, Iran might engage in economic warfare by attempting to choke the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global oil shipments:

Jessica Mendoza: “Short of a direct military assault on American bases or embassies, Iran could try economic warfare, specifically by choking off global access to a key trade waterway, the Strait of Hormuz.” (13:16)

Such actions would have profound global economic implications, potentially disrupting oil supply and driving up prices, as evidenced by a recent 6% drop in oil futures following Iran’s missile attacks:

Jessica Mendoza: “After Iran's missile attack on U.S. military bases, oil futures fell by more than 6%.” (14:01)

6. Economic Implications: Strait of Hormuz and Oil Prices

Control over the Strait of Hormuz is pivotal, as it facilitates the transportation of over a fifth of the world's oil supply. A blockade or disruption in this area could lead to significant economic turmoil:

Ian: “If that were to shut down, there would be a real constraint on the oil supply which would cause oil prices to rise. And that's something that would have a global impact and would probably hit the stock market.” (13:36)

7. Diplomatic Options and Future Scenarios

Diplomatic avenues appear limited, as Iran’s foreign minister has dismissed the efficacy of negotiations:

Jessica Mendoza: “Since the attack, Iran's foreign minister signaled that diplomacy has proven useless. The Trump administration, he said, only understands the language of threat and force.” (08:57)

Ian discusses the delicate balance Iran must maintain to retaliate without igniting further conflict:

Ian: “There's a pressure on the regime to save face here.” (07:40)

The possibility of regime change looms large, with President Trump hinting at its necessity if Iran does not engage diplomatically:

Ian: “President Trump posted something very interesting. He said that regime change has been politically incorrect. But if Iran doesn't come to the table, then it may be necessary.” (14:30)

8. Conclusion: Iran at a Crossroads

The episode concludes with an analysis of Iran's strategic dilemma. Struggling with diminished proxies and exposed vulnerabilities, Iran faces a critical juncture:

Ian: “Iran has a lot of. It definitely is in a moment of real change. It's at a real crossroads in terms of where its future is going to be.” (16:58)

While the immediate threat of a larger conflict remains subdued, the long-term implications for regional stability and Iran’s political landscape are profound. The international community remains watchful as Iran navigates its options amidst intense pressure from the U.S. and its allies.

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Additional Contributions: Sudarshan Raghavan

Listen to more episodes and stay updated with the latest in money, business, and power by subscribing to The Journal on Spotify and other major platforms.

Note: Advertisements and non-content sections from the original transcript have been excluded to focus on the core discussion.

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Timestamps

• 00:10 – Missile Interception by Qatar
• 00:25 – Iran’s Missile Launch
• 00:44 – Significance of US-Israel Coordination
• 01:03 – US Military Capabilities
• 01:37 – Damage Assessment of Fordo
• 01:59 – Iran’s Unpreparedness for Warfare
• 03:45 – Historical Context of Israel-Iran Conflict
• 04:14 – Iran’s Vulnerability
• 04:27 – Israeli Airstrikes on Iran
• 04:42 – Success of Israeli Operations
• 05:20 – Announcement of US Strikes
• 05:27 – Objectives of the US Mission
• 06:37 – Uncertainty of Mission Success
• 07:15 – Iranian Media’s Response
• 07:40 – Iran’s Pressure to Respond
• 08:18 – Iran’s Limited Options
• 08:57 – Diplomatic Challenges
• 09:17 – Symbolic Response Tactics
• 10:14 – Potential Escalation
• 10:29 – Full-Scale War Possibility
• 12:33 – Iran’s Threat to US Bases
• 13:16 – Economic Warfare through Strait of Hormuz
• 14:01 – Impact on Oil Futures
• 14:30 – Threat of Regime Change
• 15:30 – Assessing Escalation Risks
• 16:58 – Iran’s Moment of Reckoning

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This summary provides a comprehensive overview of the podcast episode, capturing the key discussions and insights shared by the hosts and contributors. For a deeper understanding, listeners are encouraged to tune into the full episode of The Journal.

Transcript

[Ian]

And Ian, we're now hearing from the Qatari Defense Ministry. They say that the Qatari air defense has successfully intercepted a missile attack targeting Al Udid air base. Again, that is the largest US Air base in the Middle East. This news from Qatar comes after it.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Today, Iran launched missiles targeting an American military base in Qatar. Officials said Iran also fired on Iraq. The strikes were in response to US Attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend in support of Israel's war against Iran. How big of a deal was this US Strike?

[Ian]

It was massive. It is the first time that the United States and Israel have coordinated on a military operation. That's never happened before. So that alone, I think, is a pretty huge deal.

[Jessica Mendoza]

That's our colleague Shandi Reis, the Journal's deputy bureau chief for the Middle East.

[Ian]

This was a massive show of US Force and military power. This was something that only the United States could do. There's no other country in the world, including Israel, that has the capability to drop the kind of bombs on Iran that the United States dropped. And so it shows a very coordinated US And Israel relationship and sends a very strong message not only to Iran, but the other players in the region that U.S. and Israeli force is dominant.

[Jessica Mendoza]

President Trump claimed the Fordo site and other key nuclear facilities were, quote, completely and totally obliterated. The UN's Atomic Energy Agency says the damage at Fordo was expected to be very significant, though the extent of the destruction at the underground facility is hard to determine. Still, it's become clear that the strikes have pushed Iran into a corner.

[Ian]

Iran was not built to engage in this kind of warfare. It never envisioned the idea of a direct military confrontation between Israel versus Iran. It doesn't have the missile capabilities and it doesn't have the air defense capabilities to be able to go head to head with Israel. So Iran really is in a very difficult position.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Welcome to the Journal, our show about money, business and power. I'm Jessica Mendoza. It's Monday, June 23rd. Coming up on the show, Iran's options are narrowing. Where does it go from here? FOREIGN.

[Ian]

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[Jessica Mendoza]

The recent conflict between Israel and Iran traces back to October 7, when Hamas, an Iranian ally, launched a deadly attack on Israel. Since then, Israel has conducted bold operations against Iran's proxies in the region, proxies that include not just Hamas and Gaza, but also Hezbollah in Lebanon. Both groups have since been severely diminished. At the same time, Israel also wiped out many of Iran's aerial defenses, giving Israel more control of the skies.

[Ian]

Iran is as vulnerable as it could possibly be, and it just was never prepared for this kind of situation. And that's why they crafted this whole other way of confronting Israel, and it's failed.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Earlier this month, Israel capitalized on Iran's vulnerability by launching a wave of airstrikes on Iranian soil, targeting its nuclear facilities and killing several top military leaders and nuclear scientists.

[Ian]

What's been pretty undeniable is that Israel's attack on Iran has been a massive military success. And once that success became clear, President Trump became more enthusiastic about the possibility of seriously degrading Iran's nuclear capabilities. And that obviously culminated with a strong strike that was late Saturday night by the United States against Iran's major nuclear facilities. We have breaking news now out of the Middle East. President Trump announced the US has attacked three nuclear sites in Iran.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Last night, on the president's orders, US Central Command, under the command of General Eric Kurilla, executed Operation Midnight Hammer.

[Ian]

A short time ago, the US Military carried out massive precision strikes on the.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Three key nuclear facilities in the Iranian regime, Fordeau, Natanz, and Isfahan. What was the broader US Goal in hitting these sites and specifically Fordo? What did the US Say was sort of the idea behind this move?

[Ian]

The idea behind this was very simply to take out Iran's nuclear capabilities. It was to destroy Iran's nuclear program or at least set it back for years. And Fordo was the most significant site because it was the most difficult to destroy and because the United States is the only country in the world that had the weapons that have even a shot of destroying it. It's built into a mountain, and so no other country has the weapons to destroy it. So in order to do that, and in order for the US And Israel to say we have really set back the Iranian program, set it back, destroyed it, either one. To be able to say that there's been an actual accomplishment here, the United States had to hit it.

[Jessica Mendoza]

And how successful was the US Mission?

[Ian]

That is something we simply do not know yet. President Trump has said that Florida was obliterated. There were also two other nuclear sites that the US hit, Natanz and Isfahan. The reality is that nobody actually knows at this point. There has been no battle damage assessment yet as far as we know. There are some signs, but really too early to tell, other than the Trump administration saying that the site was obliterated. You know, even the Israelis have been quiet on what they think was achieved there.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Iranian state media played down the severity of the damage to Fordo, saying the US Strike only damaged the entrance tunnel. State media also said that important equipment was moved to a new location prior to the strike. US Officials have suggested the strike was a one time intervention. And President Trump seemed to try to walk the US Back from further engagement, saying on social media, quote, now is the time for peace.

[Ian]

I would say at the end of the day, he's not really the one that gets to decide. As they say, the enemy has a say in all of it. And so Iran is going to have a say. And as much as President Trump wants Iran to come to the table, Iran is in a very difficult position where if it caves right now without any sort of military response, it looks very weak, both domestically and also to its proxies who still are allied with them. So, you know, there is pressure on the regime to save face here.

[Jessica Mendoza]

What does that look like for Iran? What are its options?

[Ian]

The easiest way that Iran has out of this, and also the least likely thing to happen is for Iran to just come to the table and say, yep, we're willing to sign whatever you want. U.S. and Israel, like just, you know, let's, let's come to the table, let's hash this out. We will agree to end uranium enrichment, which is key to producing a nuclear weapon. We're going to agree to limits on other munitions, and we'll basically do what you want. We'll sign a deal and everybody will go home and we can end this fighting. So that's the easiest end and it's also the end that people think is the least likely.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Since the attack, Iran's foreign minister signaled that diplomacy has proven useless. The Trump administration, he said, only understands the language of threat and force. And this is very unfortunate. So if going back to the negotiating table isn't realistic, what else could Iran do?

[Ian]

So this is a very delicate balancing act that these countries have done before, and it's very dangerous because you don't know what is that perfect line between inflicting some damage that's symbolic to be able to say we responded but not too much damage. That makes your enemy say, well, now we have to respond.

[Jessica Mendoza]

It's an approach that has worked in the past, like in 2020 when the US assassinated a top Iranian general.

[Ian]

What Iran did in response was they did attack some US bases, but there was no damage. Or at least there was no nobody was actually killed. And President Trump played it down and it ended there. So there's some kind of response that they can make that would allow them to save face but not escalate. But it's such a dangerous line because you really don't know where that line is. And obviously you always risk that you do kill someone or you kill more people than you mean to, or, you know, it's just not. It's not science by any means.

[Jessica Mendoza]

It's unclear if Iran's strikes against US Bases today will lead to a larger conflict. So far the missiles have been intercepted and there have been no reported casualties. But Iran could also respond in a way that would ratchet things up even further.

[Ian]

They could just go full bore, just full on war against the US in the region.

[Jessica Mendoza]

That's after the break.

[Ian]

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[Shaindy Reis]

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[Ian]

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[Jessica Mendoza]

Now, you mentioned sort of this delicate balancing act in terms of what Iran could do to retaliate in a way that wouldn't lead to further escalation. Could you talk about what Iran could do that could escalate this conflict further and maybe force an even bigger US Response?

[Ian]

Oh, sure, that's really clear. They could just start hitting U.S. military bases. You know, there are military bases throughout the region, Iraq, the uae, Saudi Arabia. They could attack Gulf assets and they don't need to hit the US Homeland. There's plenty of targets in the Middle east for them to hit and, you know, kill U.S. forces. And, and if they kill U.S. forces or attack U.S. embassies in the region, other U.S. assets or close U.S. allies, then you've got a regional war. Then you've got a real escalation. And Trump has been pretty clear that he's going to respond very forcefully to Iran if they go that route.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Short of a direct military assault on American bases or embassies, Iran could try economic warfare, specifically by choking off global access to a key trade waterway, the Strait of Hormuz. The strait connects the oil rich nations of the region to the rest of the world. It's a vital channel for more than a fifth of the world's oil supply.

[Ian]

And so it's absolutely key to the shipment of oil and the continuation of steady oil prices. If that were to shut down, there would be a real constraint on the oil supply which would cause oil prices to rise. And that's something that would have a global impact and would probably hit the stock market. And so that's something that would very clearly get the attention of President Trump.

[Jessica Mendoza]

After Iran's missile attack on U.S. military bases, oil futures fell by more than 6%. In a truth social post, Trump said, quote, everyone keep oil prices down. I'm watching. You're playing into the hands of the enemy. Don't do. Another possibility that's floating around is that the US And Israel could go further and topple the Iranian government. Is that on the table?

[Ian]

It's a great question. And it's really hard to actually know whether the Israelis or the Americans are serious about regime change. And what we hear is that this is mostly being used as a threat to Iran, that the longer you drag this out, the weaker your regime is going to be and so come to the table sooner rather than later if you want to save yourselves. President Trump posted something very interesting. He said that regime change has been politically incorrect. But if Iran doesn't come to the table, then it may be necessary. And so that actually sounds very much to me like a pressure tactic. If you read that closely, it's definitely something that the Israelis and the Americans are holding over Iran's head and trying to use as a pressure tactic to say, listen, if you don't come to the table now, you are going to risk the complete collapse of your regime.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Shaindy, now we've seen Iran's response. They launched these missiles at US Bases in Qatar and Iraq. Is there a possibility this could escalate further?

[Ian]

So when I was talking earlier about the symbolic response, this is what I was talking about. So far, the information that we have is that Iran launched ballistic missiles at Qatar, but they did it perhaps in coordination with Qatar. The US Knew that this was coming and there were no casualties. And that's the really important point here, is that the United States can safely walk away now from this fight. They don't need to escalate. Because of that. The US really has the opportunity now to kind of walk away and say, okay, we're out of this fight. They do not need to retaliate. And it paves the way for an end to the war. It does mean that this goes back to being an Israeli and Iranian conflict. This definitely allows Iran to say that they have retaliated. They can tell their own people that they've responded, that they've been successful, while at the same time making sure that this won't escalate out of control. The message they're sending with this response is that they do not want to escalate. They do not want to go into a major war with the United States. I think it's an existential moment for the Islamic Republic, for the regime, it is definitely a moment of reckoning. For Iran, I think it has exposed them as a bit of a paper tiger. Without their proxies, they're really not able to defend themselves, let alone cause significant damage to another country. And so I don't know, though, how this will all shake out in the end. Iran has been sort of kicked off their pedestal, and the question is, what do they do in response? So Iran has a lot of. It definitely is in a moment of real change. It's at a real crossroads in terms of where its future is going to be.

[Jessica Mendoza]

That's all for today. Monday, June 23rd. The Journal is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. Additional reporting in this episode from Sudarshan Raghavan. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.