The Journal: Iran Retaliates After U.S. Strike – How Could This End?

Release Date: June 23, 2025

Hosts: Ryan Knutson and Jessica Mendoza
Production: The Wall Street Journal & Gimlet, in collaboration with Spotify

1. Introduction and Overview of Recent Events

In the latest episode of The Journal, hosts Ryan Knutson and Jessica Mendoza delve into the escalating tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran following recent military actions. The discussion centers around the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran's subsequent missile attacks targeting American bases in Qatar and Iraq.

2. The U.S. and Israel’s Military Strikes Against Iran

The episode opens with the announcement from the Qatari Defense Ministry that their air defenses successfully intercepted missiles aimed at the Al Udid Air Base, the largest U.S. military installation in the Middle East (00:10). Idaho emphasizes the unprecedented nature of the U.S. and Israel’s coordinated military operation:

Ian: “It was the first time that the United States and Israel have coordinated on a military operation. That's never happened before. So that alone, I think, is a pretty huge deal.” (00:44)

This joint effort marked a significant show of force, highlighting the unique military capabilities of the United States in targeting and degrading Iran's nuclear infrastructure. The destruction of key sites such as Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan was intended to set Iran’s nuclear program back by several years.

3. Iran’s Response: Missile Attacks on U.S. Bases

In retaliation, Iran launched ballistic missiles targeting U.S. military bases in Qatar and Iraq. Jessica Mendoza reports:

Jessica Mendoza: “Today, Iran launched missiles targeting an American military base in Qatar. Officials said Iran also fired on Iraq.” (00:25)

Despite these attacks, all missiles were intercepted, and there were no reported casualties. This response appears to be a calculated move by Iran to demonstrate retaliation without escalating into a full-scale conflict.

4. Current Status and Immediate Consequences

The immediate aftermath of the U.S. strikes has left Iran in a precarious position. The destruction of the Fordo facility, as claimed by President Trump, has been partially corroborated by the UN’s Atomic Energy Agency, though the full extent of the damage remains unclear:

Jessica Mendoza: “President Trump claimed the Fordo site and other key nuclear facilities were, quote, completely and totally obliterated. The UN's Atomic Energy Agency says the damage at Fordo was expected to be very significant, though the extent of the destruction at the underground facility is hard to determine.” (01:37)

Ian underscores Iran’s lack of preparedness for direct military confrontation:

Ian: “Iran was not built to engage in this kind of warfare. It never envisioned the idea of a direct military confrontation between Israel versus Iran. It doesn't have the missile capabilities and it doesn't have the air defense capabilities to be able to go head to head with Israel. So Iran really is in a very difficult position.” (01:59)

5. Potential Escalation Paths

The hosts explore the possible avenues Iran may pursue in response to U.S. and Israeli actions. One significant threat is the targeting of additional U.S. military bases across the Middle East, which could provoke a broader regional conflict:

Ian: “They could just go full bore, just full on war against the US in the region.” (10:29)

Alternatively, Iran might engage in economic warfare by attempting to choke the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global oil shipments:

Jessica Mendoza: “Short of a direct military assault on American bases or embassies, Iran could try economic warfare, specifically by choking off global access to a key trade waterway, the Strait of Hormuz.” (13:16)

Such actions would have profound global economic implications, potentially disrupting oil supply and driving up prices, as evidenced by a recent 6% drop in oil futures following Iran’s missile attacks:

Jessica Mendoza: “After Iran's missile attack on U.S. military bases, oil futures fell by more than 6%.” (14:01)

6. Economic Implications: Strait of Hormuz and Oil Prices

Control over the Strait of Hormuz is pivotal, as it facilitates the transportation of over a fifth of the world's oil supply. A blockade or disruption in this area could lead to significant economic turmoil:

Ian: “If that were to shut down, there would be a real constraint on the oil supply which would cause oil prices to rise. And that's something that would have a global impact and would probably hit the stock market.” (13:36)

7. Diplomatic Options and Future Scenarios

Diplomatic avenues appear limited, as Iran’s foreign minister has dismissed the efficacy of negotiations:

Jessica Mendoza: “Since the attack, Iran's foreign minister signaled that diplomacy has proven useless. The Trump administration, he said, only understands the language of threat and force.” (08:57)

Ian discusses the delicate balance Iran must maintain to retaliate without igniting further conflict:

Ian: “There's a pressure on the regime to save face here.” (07:40)

The possibility of regime change looms large, with President Trump hinting at its necessity if Iran does not engage diplomatically:

Ian: “President Trump posted something very interesting. He said that regime change has been politically incorrect. But if Iran doesn't come to the table, then it may be necessary.” (14:30)

8. Conclusion: Iran at a Crossroads

The episode concludes with an analysis of Iran's strategic dilemma. Struggling with diminished proxies and exposed vulnerabilities, Iran faces a critical juncture:

Ian: “Iran has a lot of. It definitely is in a moment of real change. It's at a real crossroads in terms of where its future is going to be.” (16:58)

While the immediate threat of a larger conflict remains subdued, the long-term implications for regional stability and Iran’s political landscape are profound. The international community remains watchful as Iran navigates its options amidst intense pressure from the U.S. and its allies.

Additional Contributions: Sudarshan Raghavan

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Note: Advertisements and non-content sections from the original transcript have been excluded to focus on the core discussion.

Timestamps

• 00:10 – Missile Interception by Qatar
• 00:25 – Iran’s Missile Launch
• 00:44 – Significance of US-Israel Coordination
• 01:03 – US Military Capabilities
• 01:37 – Damage Assessment of Fordo
• 01:59 – Iran’s Unpreparedness for Warfare
• 03:45 – Historical Context of Israel-Iran Conflict
• 04:14 – Iran’s Vulnerability
• 04:27 – Israeli Airstrikes on Iran
• 04:42 – Success of Israeli Operations
• 05:20 – Announcement of US Strikes
• 05:27 – Objectives of the US Mission
• 06:37 – Uncertainty of Mission Success
• 07:15 – Iranian Media’s Response
• 07:40 – Iran’s Pressure to Respond
• 08:18 – Iran’s Limited Options
• 08:57 – Diplomatic Challenges
• 09:17 – Symbolic Response Tactics
• 10:14 – Potential Escalation
• 10:29 – Full-Scale War Possibility
• 12:33 – Iran’s Threat to US Bases
• 13:16 – Economic Warfare through Strait of Hormuz
• 14:01 – Impact on Oil Futures
• 14:30 – Threat of Regime Change
• 15:30 – Assessing Escalation Risks
• 16:58 – Iran’s Moment of Reckoning

This summary provides a comprehensive overview of the podcast episode, capturing the key discussions and insights shared by the hosts and contributors. For a deeper understanding, listeners are encouraged to tune into the full episode of The Journal.