Podcast Summary
The Journal. – "Is Cuba on the Brink of Collapse?"
Date: March 19, 2026
Hosts: Jessica Mendoza & Ryan Knutson
With Reporting by: Vera Bergengruen

Episode Overview

This episode explores the escalating crisis in Cuba as the island faces intensifying blackouts, economic paralysis, and mass protests following a series of U.S. actions aimed at strangling the Cuban regime’s access to oil and resources. With the Trump administration making Cuba a top foreign policy priority—and taking dramatic steps in Venezuela to dismantle the flow of oil to Cuba—the country finds itself more isolated than ever. The hosts and guest Vera Bergengruen dissect what has precipitated this crisis, the U.S. government’s objectives, the response of the Cuban regime and people, and the uncertain road ahead.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Daily Life in Crisis: Blackouts, Scarcity, Protests

• The Sound of Protest:
  • Every night, Cubans lean out their windows, banging pots and pans in protest.
  • [00:09] Jessica Mendoza: "At night across Cuba, the sound seems to be everywhere. Metal on metal, the banging of pots and pans. Angry Cubans leaning out their windows, making noise in the dark."
• Basic Services Collapse:
  • The island is enduring massive blackouts, with people unable to get water to upper floors and public transportation halted. Hospitals cancel surgeries, food costs are astronomical.
  • [00:57] Vera Bergengruen: "If you live on an upper floor, you can't get water…Public transportation has ground to a halt. Hospitals have been canceling surgeries. The cost of food has really skyrocketed."
• Protests Escalate:
  • Protests spread, including a significant riot in Morón where demonstrators burned furniture at the Communist Party headquarters—an extremely rare form of direct challenge to Cuban authority.
  • [08:39] Vera Bergengruen: "An angry crowd of protesters went to the headquarters of the Communist Party in northeastern Cuba in a town called Moron… They set parts of it on fire. That is a remarkable sign of protest."

2. U.S. Action: The Fuel Blockade and Its Impact

• Dramatic Shift in U.S. Policy:
  • The Trump administration orchestrated regime change in Venezuela (ousting Maduro in a military operation) and pressured Venezuela's new leadership to stop oil shipments to Cuba.
  • [05:25] Vera Bergengruen: "The US bombed the capital of Caracas… In a stunning act of regime change, the US military captured and brought Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to US soil… one of the biggest asks was to stop supplying Cuba with oil."
• Global Pressure Campaign:
  • The administration then threatened tariffs on any remaining countries supplying oil to Cuba, isolating the island further.
  • [06:05] Jessica Mendoza: "Trump issued an executive order threatening to impose tariffs on any nation that sells oil to Cuba. That scared off Cuba’s remaining oil suppliers."
  • The classification of Cuba as a national security threat tied into broader U.S. regional fears about adversaries' foothold near U.S. territory.
• Criticism and Controversy:
  • Human rights groups and international experts criticize the moves as illegal collective punishment that targets the population more than the regime.
  • [06:35] Vera Bergengruen: "Many legal experts… say this is an illegal blockade and that it’s basically collective punishment of the population."

3. Regime Stability and U.S. Strategy

• U.S. Objective: Regime Change
  • The administration's stated goal is dismantling Cuba’s government.
  • [02:11] Vera Bergengruen: "Ultimately, they want regime change at the very top."
• Trump's Personal Stance:
  • Trump openly relishes the idea of “taking Cuba,” referencing his desire to “free it or take it” and likening his ambitions to Cold War legacy achievements.
  • [01:47 & 15:42] Donald Trump: "I do believe I’ll be the honor of having the honor of taking Cuba… I could do anything I want with it, you want to know the truth?... It’s a beautiful island, great weather. They’re not in a hurricane zone, which is nice for a change."
• Comparisons with Venezuela:
  • Unlike Venezuela, Cuba lacks strong opposition groups, a history of civic society, or experience with multiparty elections.
  • [13:27] Vera Bergengruen: "In Venezuela… it had a civic society, it had well organized opposition movements… [Cuba] doesn’t have that infrastructure."

4. The Cuban Government and U.S. Negotiating Tactics

• The Regime’s Position:
  • Despite increased fragility, the Cuban government still maintains control, and mass uprising seems unlikely in the immediate term.
  • [12:16] Vera Bergengruen: "On the island itself, the government remains firmly in control… we're not really seeing signs that people are going to rise up and demand the kind of change that the U.S. is envisioning."
• Minor Concessions, Inflexible U.S. Sanctions:
  • Cuba has released prisoners and signaled willingness for Cuban-American investment, but U.S. hardliners demand a total regime change before lifting sanctions.
  • [14:39] Vera Bergengruen: "The embargo remains in place… For [U.S. hardliners], anything like [concessions] looks like appeasement and they want a full uprooting of the political institutions."
• Unclear “Day After” Plans:
  • U.S. officials lack a clear plan for post-regime Cuba; much of the planning is happening outside Cuba, notably in Miami.
  • [16:41] Vera Bergengruen: "There isn't really an infrastructure for elections. There isn't an opposition movement that is powerful enough… Who replaces this government? This conversation’s happening largely outside Cuba."

5. The Human Cost and the Road Ahead

• Growing Desperation:
  • Cuban society, already accustomed to deprivation, is being pushed toward the breaking point—with survival now the main concern for most.
  • [09:40] Vera Bergengruen: “Even for a population used to suffering quite a bit of deprivation, they are realizing that it’s not going to get any better. It’s only going to get worse.”
• Potential for More Unrest?
  • Demonstrations are likely to continue, but large-scale regime change from below seems remote.
  • [17:34] Vera Bergengruen: “I do think we’ll see more protests… but most people are just worried about survival right now.”
• A Looming Humanitarian Disaster:
  • If Cuba runs completely out of fuel, the U.S. may be forced to ease restrictions—or risk global backlash if the situation devolves into mass starvation and hospital shutdowns. The outcome remains uncertain.
  • [17:34] Vera Bergengruen: “If Cuba really completely runs out of fuel by April… the humanitarian toll would be blamed on the United States. And we really don’t know what that’s going to look like.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [01:47] Donald Trump: “I do believe I'll be the honor of having the honor of taking Cuba… I could do anything I want with it, you want to know the truth?”
• [05:25] Vera Bergengruen: "In a stunning act of regime change, the US military captured and brought Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to US soil, and one of the biggest asks was to stop supplying Cuba with oil."
• [08:39] Vera Bergengruen: "[Protesters] made a bonfire with the furniture. They set parts of it on fire. And it was this small riot in a town that had had no power for 30 hours."
• [15:42] Donald Trump: "It's a beautiful island, great weather. They're not in a hurricane zone, which is nice for a change. You know, they won't be asking us for money for hurricanes every week."
• [16:41] Vera Bergengruen: “There isn't really an infrastructure for elections. There isn't an opposition movement that is powerful enough… Who replaces this government?”

Important Segments (Timestamps)

• 00:09 – Opening: The nightly sounds of protest across Cuba
• 00:57 – The state of daily life: Water, food, hospitals, public transit
• 05:25 – Key U.S. moves: Regime change in Venezuela and oil blockade
• 06:05 – Oil tariff order and labeling Cuba a national security threat
• 08:39 – Escalation: Riot at Communist Party headquarters in Morón
• 12:16 – Status and strength of the Cuban regime today
• 13:27 – Comparison between Cuba and Venezuela’s political landscapes
• 14:39 – Cuban regime’s concessions vs. U.S. hardliner demands
• 16:41 – The problem of “day after” planning for Cuba’s future
• 17:34 – Likelihood and limits of further protests, looming humanitarian crisis

Conclusion

This episode paints a vivid, urgent picture of an island in crisis, caught between an uncompromising U.S. policy aiming for total regime change and a population whose suffering may soon reach catastrophic proportions. While the U.S. administration sees opportunity for a historic transformation and legacy, the lack of infrastructure for real political change in Cuba—and the risk of escalating human disaster—signals a deeply uncertain road ahead. The voices of Cubans ringing out at night—banging pots and pans—are a testament to the desperation and resilience of a people on the edge, yet with no clear path forward.