Is SpaceX Worth the Hype?

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Journal. — “Is SpaceX Worth the Hype?”

Podcast: The Journal.
Hosts: Ryan Knudsen & Jessica Mendoza
Guests: Cori Driebush (WSJ IPO expert)
Date: June 11, 2026
Episode Theme: SpaceX’s historic IPO: Is the $1.77 trillion valuation justified, or is it the result of extreme hype? The Journal dissects SpaceX’s financial state, business outlook, and the risks and excitement surrounding one of the biggest stock market events ever.

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Episode Overview

SpaceX—Elon Musk's ambitious space, internet, and AI company—is hitting the stock market in the largest IPO in history, seeking to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.77 trillion. This episode explores whether SpaceX is actually worth this immense figure, or if investors are caught up in Musk mania. The show unpacks SpaceX's secretive finances, its real sources of revenue, the expectations for its future businesses—especially AI and orbital data centers—and the implications for retail and institutional investors.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Historic Scale of SpaceX’s IPO (00:05–01:35)

• SpaceX is preparing to raise $75 billion through its IPO—the largest ever, more than is normally raised in all U.S. IPOs in an entire year.
• Cori Driebush: “SpaceX is by far the largest IPO ever. So I don't even have to say the largest I've covered. It's the largest ever.” (00:18)
• SpaceX’s IPO will value the company at $1.77 trillion, placing it among the ten most valuable public companies in the world.

2. Valuation Skepticism & Hype (01:35–02:43)

• The valuation isn’t based on profitability—SpaceX is unprofitable as of the IPO.
• Cori Driebush: “SpaceX is selling itself based on its potential, not its current ability to turn profits… You're buying into what it could be, not what it is right now.” (01:55)
• Is this “astronomical” price realistic or a sign of hype?

3. SpaceX’s Evolution & Secretive Nature (03:52–06:02)

• Musk’s long-term goal: make humanity multi-planetary and build technology for life on other planets.
• Early failures: Initial rocket launches didn’t reach orbit, burning millions, but eventually succeeded with Falcon 1 in 2008.
• SpaceX later expanded into satellite internet (Starlink), AI (through acquisition of Xai and Grok), and even social media (owns X).
• As a private company, SpaceX kept most financial details secret, even from investors.

4. What Actually Makes Money at SpaceX? (06:02–07:35)

• With the IPO, detailed financials are public: Starlink, the satellite internet business, is the only profitable segment, with $11B in revenue (over 60% of total sales, 10 million subscribers).
• The rocket business and the newly added AI arm are large money losers.
• Cori Driebush: “The majority of pre IPO investors have been in the dark about how much it made or lost.” (05:45)

5. The AI Gamble: Orbital Data Centers (07:35–13:34)

• Last year, SpaceX lost almost $5B overall on $19B in revenue (“listing at 94 times sales”).
• Big future bets: AI division could outperform other business segments, with bull cases projecting a trillion in annual revenue from AI by 2035.
• The main AI ambition: operate orbital data centers powered by solar energy, cooled by space temperatures, and free of local NIMBY battles.
  • Cori Driebush: “The lowest cost place to put AI will be space. And that'll be true within two years, maybe three, three at the latest.” (10:33)
• The company believes the “total addressable market” is $28 trillion—a figure comparable to the U.S. economy.
• SpaceX’s future depends on successfully operating AI data centers in space—huge, unproven technological and business risks.

6. The Risks for Investors & Market Fervor (13:34–19:59)

SpaceX’s Risky Roadshow:

• Unlike most companies, SpaceX told investors the IPO would be at $135/share, “take it or leave it” rather than negotiating over price (15:06–15:40).
• Musk is prioritizing “retail” investors, with up to a third of shares going to them.
• Ryan Knudsen: “Part of the reason Musk loves individual investors is because they love him.” (16:14)
• Extreme retail enthusiasm, often based on belief in Musk rather than valuation analysis.
  • Quotes from ordinary investors:
    • “The man can execute. He can execute on his vision.” – Tamar June (17:07)
    • “They're the only organization…ready for the total market that's going to become available in space.” – Dean Norrie (17:19)
    • “He's done a really good job…hyping things up and moving pieces around to make it look attractive.” – Josh Hill (17:52)
• Cori Driebush: “The shocking part is the lack of price sensitivity. Not just I would buy it for this price. It's more I just want shares. That is, what is so surprising to me is to hear this fervor of nothing will go wrong. It has to go up.” (18:12)

Risks of Buying High:

• With Tesla, retail investors bought in early and benefited. With SpaceX, much of the value has already been realized as a private company, so retail buyers are getting in at a high price.
• Ryan Knudsen: “Its current valuation, $1.7 trillion, already bakes in a lot of those future expectations.” (18:59)
• Cori Driebush: “We're seeing everyone get in at a very, very high level. And that's just... I just worry, but I'm a worrier.” (19:27)

7. Institutional Stakes & Market Dynamics (19:59–22:18)

• Even those not interested in SpaceX shares may own them soon: Nasdaq 100 index is adding SpaceX almost immediately, forcing many retirement funds and ETFs to buy, despite usual rules requiring a waiting period after IPOs.
• Not all indexes are as eager—S&P 500 will not relax its rules.
• SpaceX’s success could affect IPOs for other AI firms like Anthropic and OpenAI.
• Huge demand from institutional investors already—e.g., BlackRock wants at least $5 billion in SpaceX shares.

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Memorable Quotes & Standout Moments

• “SpaceX is selling itself based on its potential, not its current ability to turn profits… You're buying in to what it could be, not what it is right now.” – Cori Driebush (01:55)
• “The lowest cost place to put AI will be space. And that'll be true within two years, maybe three, three at the latest.” – Unattributed, possibly Musk cited by Driebush (10:33)
• On retail investors: “There is extreme interest in the IPO… in Musk I trust. They believe in this dream. They're just happy to be a part of it.” – Cori Driebush (16:43)
• “The shocking part is the lack of price sensitivity…” – Cori Driebush (18:12)
• “The potential to make a lot of people a lot of money is big, but there's also potential to, to really erode the trust of the individual investor.” – Cori Driebush (18:44)
• “Its current valuation, $1.7 trillion, already bakes in a lot of those future expectations.” – Ryan Knudsen (18:59)

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Important Timestamps

• 00:05 — Announcement of the SpaceX IPO and its scale
• 01:55 — SpaceX’s valuation and lack of profitability
• 05:45 — SpaceX’s secretive finances pre-IPO
• 06:47 — Starlink’s role as the profitable business segment
• 07:35 — Financial losses and valuation skepticism
• 09:23 — Analyst predictions for AI revenues
• 10:33 — Concept of AI data centers in space
• 13:05 — The importance of AI for SpaceX's projected future growth
• 15:06 — Unconventional IPO roadshow tactics
• 16:43 — Retail investor enthusiasm and Musk fandom
• 18:12 — Risks for investors and lack of price sensitivity
• 19:59 — Index funds exposure to SpaceX post-IPO
• 21:31 — Impact of SpaceX’s IPO on other AI firm IPOs

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Summary of Tone and Takeaways

The episode delivers a blend of awe, skepticism, and analysis. Hosts and guests marvel at both the scale of SpaceX’s IPO and Musk’s ability to inspire loyalty and belief, while warning of the risks of hype-driven investing at sky-high valuations. Listeners are left with the sense that SpaceX’s future riches are far from a sure thing—and that “space fever” may be driving markets more than sober assessment.

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Bottom Line:
SpaceX's IPO is a historic market event fueled largely by belief in Elon Musk's vision and massive future projections, especially around AI and orbital technology. Its actual business fundamentals rely on Starlink, while other divisions are currently losing money. Investors—especially individuals—are piling in with faith, but the real-world risks are enormous, and many could end up paying a steep price for a seat on Musk’s interplanetary rocket.

Transcript

[Ryan Knudsen]

Elon Musk's company, SpaceX, is going public. Meaning at some point on Friday, SpaceX will begin selling shares on the stock market. And it's aiming to raise a lot of money.

[Cori Driebush]

SpaceX is by far the largest IPO ever. So I don't even have to say the largest that I've covered. It's the largest ever.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Our colleague Cori Driebush is an expert in initial public offerings, or IPOs, and she says that the amount of money that SpaceX is aiming to raise, a whopping $75 billion, is more than the amount typically raised in an entire year by all other IPOs combined.

[Cori Driebush]

So think about the total dollars that are raised in a year by IPOs in the US so all of the

[Ryan Knudsen]

companies that are listing all of the money that they're raising from all these investors.

[Cori Driebush]

Yeah, all the companies listing in the US to raise money each year. If you look back the last 10 years, that total has only exceeded the $75 billion SpaceX is going for.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Twice that is, forgive the pun, astronomical.

[Cori Driebush]

It's pretty crazy.

[Ryan Knudsen]

So what does that tell you?

[Cori Driebush]

It speaks a lot to the craziness of what SpaceX hopes and dreams to do. They kind of believe in almost the quote, unquote impossible.

[Ryan Knudsen]

The price SpaceX is selling shares for values the company at $1.77 trillion. That puts it among the top 10 most valuable companies in the world. On paper. Does it look like SpaceX is a company that should be worth $1.7 trillion?

[Cori Driebush]

SpaceX is selling itself based on its potential, not its current ability to turn profits. SpaceX, in its current iteration, is unprofitable. You're buying in to what it could be, not what it is right now.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Welcome to the Journal, our show about money, business and power. I'm Ryan knudsen. It's Thursday, June 11th 11th. Coming up on the show, is SpaceX really worth $1.7 trillion?

[Cori Driebush (additional commentary)]

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[Ryan Knudsen]

When Elon Musk founded SpaceX in the early 2000s, he had big dreams for what the company could accomplish. The long term goal of SpaceX is

[Cori Driebush (additional commentary)]

perhaps not a very commercial sounding goal at all, which is it's to really

[Ryan Knudsen]

build the technologies necessary to make life multi planetary human life on other planets. His vision wasn't always taken that seriously. For one, Musk didn't have a background in aerospace and for the most part launching rockets into space had been NASA's domain, not a private company's. It didn't help that getting rockets into orbit is no easy task. It's literally rocket science. Plus it's super expensive and dangerous. The first three rockets SpaceX launched and

[Cori Driebush (additional commentary)]

here we go in 10, 9, 8,

[Ryan Knudsen]

7 they never made it into orbit.

[Cori Driebush (additional commentary)]

5, 4.

[Ryan Knudsen]

The Falcon 1 rockets, which cost millions of dollars to make, were either destroyed or lost mid flight. But in 2008, SpaceX finally started to take off when Falcon 1 Flight 4 successfully reached orbit. Which means Falcon 1 has made history

[Cori Driebush]

as the first privately developed launch vehicle to reach Earth orbit from the ground.

[Ryan Knudsen]

SpaceX later expanded beyond the rocket business. It went on to launch a satellite Internet arm called Starlink, and it eventually merged with Xai Musk's artificial intelligence startup, which also owns the social media platform X, by the way. So SpaceX is now a rockets Internet AI and social media company. How all that works out financially was mostly a mystery. Since it was a privately owned company, it didn't have to disclose very much, even to its original investors.

[Cori Driebush]

One thing that's been fascinating about SpaceX for the many years that I've been watching the company is it's been notoriously so secretive about its finances. So the majority of pre IPO investors have been in the dark about how much it made or lost.

[Ryan Knudsen]

That's changing now that the company is going public. To be listed on stock exchanges, companies have to disclose a lot. A few weeks ago, SpaceX released a document that was several hundred pages long and outlined the financial state of the business. Let's start with the part of the business that's making Starlink.

[Cori Driebush]

When you think of SpaceX, even just the name, you think of rockets and space travel. But the part of the business that's really propping up the company right now is actually much more boring. That's the constellation of satellites that provide high speed Internet to people all over the world, even in very remote locations.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Starlink has 10 million subscribers, five times more than it had three years ago. And last year, the Starlink division was responsible for $11 billion of revenue, which amounted to more than 60% of SpaceX's total sales. While Starlink is the profitable segment of the company, a big money losing segment is the AI division.

[Cori Driebush]

So yes, SpaceX has its famous space business, which includes rockets. Then it also has Starlink. And then the final real segment of the business is earlier this year it acquired another musk company, xai, the maker of grok. So it now has this artificial intelligence segment, which is unprofitable.

[Ryan Knudsen]

The XAI division only brought in around $3 billion in revenue, but it's spending money like crazy trying to build data centers and improve its technology in an arms race with rivals like OpenAI and Google. When you add it all up, the Starlink, the rockets, the AI, SpaceX is not a profitable company. It generated roughly $19 billion in revenue, but still lost nearly $5 billion overall last year. This is why some analysts are raising eyebrows over this $1.77 trillion valuation. Not to get too technical, but that means that SpaceX is listing at 94 times sales. By comparison, Apple's price to sales ratio is around 10, even though it has more than 20 times the revenue that SpaceX does. Is anybody look at this valuation, this potential valuation, and say, I don't think so? I mean, any analysts out there that

[Cori Driebush]

are skeptical, I mean, Morningstar came out and put out a valuation that was significantly low. I think it was below $800 billion, they said. Was the more reasonable valuation still pretty big?

[Ryan Knudsen]

But yeah, that's like less than half of what people are anticipating.

[Cori Driebush]

Exactly.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Just to say it isn't uncommon for companies to go public while operating at a financial loss, especially in the tech world. And a lot of what drives companies to go public is actually the need for an influx of cash so it can be reinvested into the company to grow for the future. And the future is really what makes people excited about SpaceX. Some of the banks SpaceX is working with on this IPO think SpaceX's future could be really lucrative.

[Cori Driebush]

So the future of SpaceX, if you believe these analysts, is the AI segment, this really unprofitable, very new segment to the company. And by 2027, research analysts at the two banks that are leading the IPO, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, they Both project the company's revenues from AI to eclipse the revenues from space and satellite segments. And by 2035, Morgan Stanley research analysts projected AI to bring in around $1.1 trillion in revenues. So again, you can believe it or not, but that all goes into this 1.77 trillion valuation.

[Ryan Knudsen]

What is so exciting about the AI division? I mean, what do they, why do they think it could make so much money?

[Cori Driebush]

So part of what SpaceX is focusing on right now is not necessarily like your chatbot. Obviously they have grok, but what they include in part of their AI business is seeing this future of operating AI data centers in space.

[Cori Driebush (additional commentary)]

The lowest cost place to put AI will be space. And that'll be true within two years, maybe three, three at the latest.

[Cori Driebush]

What Musk and a few other minds have started to talk about in the last few years has been why don't we take these data centers and put them in, in space and allow this big computing to orbit, orbit the Earth, and that allows to scale up technology without like the headaches that are being faced on Earth.

[Ryan Knudsen]

There are three headaches that putting a data center in space would theoretically help power, cooling, and the growing backlash against data center construction. These orbital data centers would be powered by the sun through solar panels and cooled by the frigid temperatures in space. And unlike on Earth, little green men aren't going to be saying, please don't put this data center in my sector of space, at least not that we know of. We don't, we haven't heard from them directly.

[Cori Driebush]

SpaceX sees this as, okay, SpaceX has this very dominant position where they're able to launch things into space fairly easily. When you think about it, they have gotten this down pat. So they are able to, to do this. And they figured, you know what, we can be the ones to operate orbital data centers. And we can do that for both for Xai and for other AI companies that might need that.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Right, because other AI companies don't own rockets in the same way that SpaceX does.

[Cori Driebush]

Not even rockets. They don't know how to launch the rockets.

[Ryan Knudsen]

And so in some ways the idea is that like the market that is that SpaceX is going to have, so to speak, or that it could unlock is space is like all of space and everything that could potentially come with it.

[Cori Driebush]

Yes. What they call a total addressable market of $20 trillion of potential sales are out there,

[Ryan Knudsen]

$28 trillion. That's how big SpaceX thinks the space market could be. To put that in perspective, that's about as much as the annual GDP of the entire US economy. In its IPO filing, SpaceX said those revenue opportunities were the largest in, quote, human history, with the majority of that revenue coming from future AI related business.

[Cori Driebush]

What SpaceX needs to do to hit these projections that analysts are seeing in the future. Trillions of dollars of revenue. It's all about AI. And to make that work, you need to make orbital data centers work. So you have to have real confidence that that's going to happen. Because if that doesn't happen, where are these profits coming from?

[Ryan Knudsen]

What could that mean for investors if SpaceX doesn't hit its goals? That's next.

[Cori Driebush]

Hi, diva, it's Rachel and Jordan.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Yeah, hi. Quick question.

[Cori Driebush]

Why are you not spending your Venmo balance?

[Ryan Knudsen]

Yeah, we're concerned you can like buy stuff with it. You love buying stuff and earn cash

[Cori Driebush]

back on eligible purchases.

[Ryan Knudsen]

You love purchasing eligible things.

[Cori Driebush]

So the money your friend sent you yesterday, that's today's ramen or rideshare or eye patches.

[Ryan Knudsen]

The skincare kind, not the pyro kind.

[Cori Driebush]

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[Cori Driebush]

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[Ryan Knudsen]

Before a company goes public, it goes on tour or what's called a roadshow, where it tries to figure out how much money big time investors are willing to pay for the stock. But SpaceX didn't take the usual approach.

[Cori Driebush]

Typically, when a company launches its roadshow pitch to investors or they go around, they get feedback from investors saying, hey, how much do you. Would you pay? We're thinking in this price range, it's like $5, $10 price range. SpaceX turned that on their head and said, you know what, we don't want drama on this IPO road show. We're just going to tell you, this is the price. Take it or leave it. So they launched the Roadshow with a $135 share. Price said, Take it or leave it. And that's what investors are grappling with

[Ryan Knudsen]

right now, Musk is banking on the hope that a lot of people are willing to buy at that price. See, back in 2020, Musk made a promise. He tweeted that he was a huge fan of individual investors, AKA retail investors, or people who buy shares through apps like Robinhood or their personal investment accounts. And he said that when SpaceX went public, he'd make sure those individual investors get, quote, top priority. You can hold me to it, he said. And he's kept that promise. When SpaceX goes public, as much as a third of the offering could be sold to individuals, which is way more than usual. And part of the reason Musk loves individual investors is because they love him. At Tesla, one of his other companies, individual investors faith and enthusiasm helped Tesla's valuation reach levels higher than its sales alone would explain. What kinds of things have you been hearing from retail investors in terms of how they're feeling about this coming ipo?

[Cori Driebush]

There are a lot of believers, and I would say that's what we are hearing. There is extreme interest in the ipo. There's such a group of Musk fans who like in Musk. I trust they believe in Musk. They believe in this dream. They're just happy to be a part of it.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Corey and a colleague spoke to some everyday investors earlier this week, like Tamar June, a tech executive in her 60s who uses Starlink at home. She says she wants to be in on SpaceX, in part because she believes in Musk. The man can execute. He can execute on his vision. Dean Norrie is another investor who wants in. He doesn't consider himself a Musk fanboy, but he's been listening to Musk's videos and podcast interviews and learning about SpaceX for years. They're the only organization that I believe is teed up and ready for the total market that's going to become available in space. And Josh Hill, a sales manager at a manufacturing company, says that while he's skeptical of the Musk hype, he does plan to buy in eventually.

[Cori Driebush]

He's done a really good job of doing what he does best, and that's

[Ryan Knudsen]

hyping things up and moving pieces around to make it look attractive.

[Cori Driebush]

At 2 trillion, It's shocking to me how much interest I hear.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Why is it shocking to you?

[Cori Driebush]

I would say the shocking part is the lack of price sensitivity. Not just I would buy it for this price. It's more I just want shares. That is, what is so surprising to me is to hear this fervor of nothing will go wrong. It has to go up. And as anyone who has covered markets for so many years, we know that markets don't always go up. The potential to make a lot of people a lot of money is big, but there's also potential to, to really erode the trust of the individual investor. And honestly, that's what I'm thinking about individual investors here. What happens if they see this huge loss?

[Ryan Knudsen]

You know the old adage, buy low, sell high. That's what earned musk a lot of fans with Tesla. Investors had years to buy that stock while it was still pretty cheap, and they made tons of money when it started skyrocketing about a decade ago. With SpaceX, much of the rise in its valuation actually took place when it was a private company. And Its current valuation, $1.7 trillion, already bakes in a lot of those future expectations.

[Cori Driebush]

And Tesla has that valuation has rocketed up higher while it was a public company. So individuals were all able to participate in that. So if it comes down, even if it has a day, when it comes down 15, 20%, a lot of those folks got in at a much lower level. They're still in the green here. We're seeing everyone get in at a very, very high level. And that's just. I just worry, but I'm a worrier.

[Ryan Knudsen]

But even if you have zero plans to buy SpaceX stock, Corey says that if you have a 401k or other investments in retirement funds, you might not have a choice. The Nasdaq 100 index, which tracks the 100 major US companies, has agreed to change its rules to include SpaceX in the next month. And that means major investment funds that track the NASDAQ 100, some of which might be in your 401k will automatically buy SpaceX.

[Cori Driebush]

Usually these indexes say you need to wait at least three months, maybe a year, before you're allowed to be in our index because we need the stock to be less volatile, fewer stock swings. We don't want it right. When you go public, it needs, quote, unquote, seasoning time. But what the advisors or bankers were saying to the index providers was SpaceX is going to come public. It's one of the top, the largest companies in the world. If you don't have it in your index, you're missing out on a huge part of the market.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Not every index sees it as worth the risk, though. For instance, The S&P 500 isn't changing its rules. SpaceX isn't the only company with a major IPO coming. Anthropic and OpenAI are also expected to go public later this year. We're hearing about so many other IPOs that are coming down the pipeline around artificial intelligence in particular, why are there so many companies that are that are looking to IPO right now?

[Cori Driebush]

It comes back to how much cash these companies are burning through and how fast they're burning through that cash. Of course, if SpaceX's IPO trades down, I think OpenAI and Anthropic are going to have to reevaluate their plans.

[Ryan Knudsen]

So far, that doesn't look like it's going to be an issue. BlackRock alone wants to buy at least $5 billion worth of SpaceX shares, according to people familiar with the matter. And other large asset managers have also made clear their intention to buy. So there's all this excitement now, but does that tell you anything about whether SpaceX will actually live up to all this hype? I mean, that is the $1.7 trillion question.

[Cori Driebush]

Yeah, that's a trillion dollar question. And it's gonna be fascinating and exciting to watch on Friday.

[Ryan Knudsen]

That's all for today. Thursday, June 11. The Journal is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. Additional reporting of this episode by Hannah Aaron Lange, Ben Cohen, Betsy Peterson, Micah Madenberg and Tim Higgins. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.

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