Israel Wants "Decisive Victory" in Iran. Is It Succeeding?

Summary

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Podcast Summary: The Journal.

Episode Title: Israel Wants "Decisive Victory" in Iran. Is It Succeeding?
Release Date: April 1, 2026
Hosts: Jessica Mendoza and Ryan Knutson
Featured Guest: Dov Lieber (WSJ reporter covering Israel)

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Main Theme

This episode investigates Israel’s ongoing war with Iran, focusing on Israel’s stated goals of the conflict, the outcomes so far, and whether a “decisive victory” is within reach. It features in-depth analysis from Wall Street Journal reporter Dov Lieber, discussing military strategies, regime change ambitions, American involvement, and the complications and strategic dilemmas now emerging for both Israel and the U.S.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Israel’s Three Stated War Goals

• Reduction of Ballistic Missile Capability
• Denial of Nuclear Capability
• Facilitating Regime Change in Iran

“One was to reduce Iran's ballistic missile capability. The second was to reduce Iran's nuclear capability. And the third was to facilitate the conditions for regime change in Iran.”
— Dov Lieber (01:03)

• Dov Lieber notes that the first two goals are difficult but more realistic; the third—regime change—is a “moonshot” (01:35).

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The Start of the War: Decapitation Strike & Early Gains

[04:57–07:27]

• Initial Israeli Successes:
  • Targeted killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and approx. 40 military leaders.
  • Destruction of air defenses and missile launch sites — achieving air superiority.

“Within the first few hours, Israel pulled off a major victory, killing Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. Israeli officials say they also killed about 40 military generals and government leaders.”
— Jessica Mendoza (04:57)

“...They call it decapitation strike. It's something we've seen the Israelis do...where they find a chance to take out a number of leaders at the same exact time. What this does, it could make command and control very difficult. It can be difficult to decide who's giving orders, and it could also hurt the morale of your enemy.”
— Dov Lieber (05:17)

• US Partnership:

  • U.S. focused on destroying Iranian navy and air force, providing intelligence (notably in Khamenei strike), and handling heavy firepower (06:08).

• Targeting Security Forces:

  • Systematic bombing of Iranian security HQs (IRGC, police, Basij), then auxiliary locations as regime forces relocated.

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Israel’s Psychological and Information Campaign

[07:48–09:25]

• Use of intelligence and direct threats to urge Iranian commanders to defect or stand aside.

• Example: Mossad threatened an Iranian police commander, who responded:

  “Brother, I swear on the Quran, I'm not your enemy. ... I am a dead man already. Please come help us.”
  — Dov Lieber, quoting intercepted call (08:15)

• Significance:

  • Israel hoped repeated threats might destabilize regime support—but Dov describes these efforts as a “window inside the campaign” emphasizing psychological operations as a central strategy.

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Failures of Regime Change and Persisting Challenges

[09:25–11:40]

• Regime Stability:
  • Despite strikes and leadership loss, the regime quickly declared Khamenei’s son as successor. Protest was suppressed by severe threats, and security forces remained loyal due to threat of execution.

“Many [Iranians] said...we would like the regime to be gone, but Protesting now would be suicide.”—Dov Lieber (09:42)

• Missile and Nuclear Threats Persist:
  • While Israel damaged missile systems and nuclear sites, Iran still maintains enough missiles for regional targets and has stranded stockpiles of highly enriched uranium.

“They still have highly enriched uranium buried deep underground. ...The regime is still there. It's digging in and it’s projecting power...”
— Dov Lieber (10:50)

• Iran’s Emboldened Posture:
  • Iran now controls the Straits of Hormuz, impacting global trade, and is showing no signs of collapse.

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Escalation and Targeting Economic Infrastructure

[12:47–13:50]

• Industrial Sabotage:
  • Israel has shifted to bombing industrial sites (notably steel factories), aiming to undermine both Iran’s war industry and its economy.

“In one swift move, Israel harms the industrial capability of Iran, but it also harms its economy.”
— Dov Lieber (13:01)

• Strategy is to buy time — slowing Iran’s recovery to potentially facilitate future protests or intensify economic pressure (13:01).

• Duration of Air Attacks:

  • Israel expected to finish targeting main objectives in 1–2 weeks, but is preparing for a longer campaign if necessary (13:53).

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American Involvement and Unresolved Objectives

[14:08–16:11]

• Uncertain Endgame:

  • Conflicting signals from President Trump about war duration, and Pentagon discussions of increasing troop presence.
  • U.S. has two main priorities:
    1. Regain free passage through Strait of Hormuz (now controlled by Iran).
    2. Secure or remove Iran’s highly enriched uranium.

• Diplomatic vs. Military Leverage:

  • Scenario raised: inflict enough pressure that Iran surrenders uranium voluntarily, or potentially try a high-risk direct extraction.

“If the Americans and the Israelis can cause enough pain to the government where they say, you know what, if you stop the campaign, we'll give you the uranium. ...The other way is to do, you know, some kind of operation to get it out of the ground.”
— Dov Lieber (15:46)

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Israel’s Broader Military Standoff and Resource Strain

[16:11–17:48]

• Second Front: Lebanon (Hezbollah):

  • Israel continues a long-running campaign against Iranian-backed Hezbollah, noted as possibly a greater immediate threat to Israel than Iran directly (16:24).
  • Dov: Hezbollah possesses more rockets capable of hitting Israel than Iran does presently (16:52).

• Resource Constraints:

  • While Israel hasn’t run out of munitions or manpower, missile interceptor (Iron Dome) stocks are running low — a “very finite and very limited and very important” resource (17:22).
  • Israel has started rationing high-end interceptors, impacting protection of civilian areas.

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Narrative Assessment: Tactical vs. Strategic Success

[18:16–19:04]

• Israel’s Leaders:

  • Netanyahu asserts that Iran is no longer an existential threat and the war effort is “beyond the halfway point.”

• Critical Perspective:

  • Dov Lieber:

    “Critics...will say you've had a lot of tactical success, you've blown up a lot of things, you've really reduced their military capabilities. But where's the strategic success? ...They haven't achieved that [decisive victory].”
    (19:04)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On decapitation and regime shock:

  “What this does, it could make command and control very difficult ... and it could also hurt the morale of your enemy.” — Dov Lieber (05:17)

• On threats to Iranian commanders:

  “Brother, I swear on the Quran, I'm not your enemy. ... I am a dead man already. Please come help us.” — Iranian police commander (08:15, via Dov Lieber)

• On regime resilience:

  “Protesting now would be suicide. ... Iran itself was threatening people do not protest. If you protest, we will consider you as abetting the enemy, okay, which is a threat to kill them.” — Dov Lieber (09:42)

• On resource limits:

  “There is one resource that is very finite and very limited and very important, and those are the missile interceptors.” — Dov Lieber (17:22)

• On the gap between tactical and strategic victories:

  “But where's the strategic success? Where is the permanent removal of the threats that you really wanted?...They haven't achieved that.” — Dov Lieber (19:04)

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Key Timestamps

• 00:10–01:35: Opening, Netanyahu’s speech, Israel’s war aims
• 04:57–07:27: Iran’s leadership killed, opening air campaign, initial optimism
• 07:48–09:25: Psychological warfare, Israeli efforts to encourage defection
• 09:25–11:40: Campaign stalls, regime resilient, missile and nuclear danger persist
• 12:47–13:50: Targeting industrial/economic sites
• 14:08–15:46: U.S. role, Strait of Hormuz control, uranium issue
• 16:11–17:48: Lebanon front, strain on missile defense
• 18:16–19:04: Reflections on “decisive victory” and outcome so far

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Summary

The episode provides a sobering breakdown of Israel’s ambitions and realities in its latest war with Iran. Despite early tactical successes—including the unprecedented assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader and widespread destruction of military targets—regime change remains elusive, with Iran’s government enduring and even tightening its grip. While Israel and the U.S. have diminished Iran’s conventional military capabilities and imposed economic cost, the risk of regional instability remains, compounded by Iranian control of vital sea routes and persistent threats from Hezbollah. As the campaign grinds on, the hope for a “decisive victory” appears increasingly out of reach, raising hard questions about long-term strategy, costs, and unintended consequences.

For listeners seeking a concise, lucid, and nuanced account of the conflict’s current state, this episode offers invaluable insights through expert reporting and direct quotes, capturing the shifting narratives and complexity on the ground.

Transcript

[Jessica Mendoza]

Yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a speech where he talked about the war with Iran. Netanyahu connected the war to today's Passover holiday. He compared Israel's attacks on Iran to the story of the plagues from the book of Exodus. In Scripture. He said the Egyptian pharaoh continued to harm the people of Israel despite the plagues. And today, he said the story of the war with Iran is no different. The campaign is not yet over. When that campaign started, Israel had three stated goals in Iran.

[Dov Lieber]

One was to reduce Iran's ballistic missile capability. The second was to reduce Iran's nuclear capability. And the third was to facilitate the conditions for regime change in Iran. That means to facilitate the ability of Iranians themselves to topple their government.

[Jessica Mendoza]

That's our colleague Dov Lieber. He covers Israel for the Wall Street Journal. And at the time, how achievable did these goals seem?

[Dov Lieber]

Two of those goals were more achievable, namely, reducing Iran's ballistic missile capability and its nuclear capability. But the last goal, regime change. This was by far the hardest goal, in some ways a type of moonshot for the Israelis.

[Jessica Mendoza]

For decades, Israel has seen the Islamic Republic of Iran as an existential threat, an enemy it has clashed with again and again, but that it's never been able to overcome. So when the US And Israel started a direct confrontation with Iran, it seemed like the moment for a decisive blow against the regime. And so now that we're a month into this conflict, big picture, would you say Israel is succeeding in those three goals?

[Dov Lieber]

At the beginning of this war, Israel looked like it may be on pace to achieve some of its aims. There is a lot of skepticism from the experts abroad, but in Israel, there was optimism.

[Jessica Mendoza]

But Dove says as the war continues, Israel's ability to achieve all its goals seems to be slipping away.

[Dov Lieber]

For all the efforts the Israelis have put in going in with the United States, together with the world superpower, they may have hoped for a decisive victory. But at this point in time, they are definitely not there.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Welcome to the Journal. Our show about money, business and power. I'm Jessica Mendoza. It's Wednesday, April 1st. Coming up on the show, what's next for Israel's plans in Iran?

[Dov Lieber]

On.

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[Jessica Mendoza]

When Israel and the US started the war over a month ago, they went in with massive force meant to achieve their goals right away. Within the first few hours, Israel pulled off a major victory, killing Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. Israeli officials say they also killed about 40 military generals and government leaders.

[Dov Lieber]

So that was the opening strike, and that was a strike that was meant to destabilize the regime. They call it decapitation strike. It's something we've seen the Israelis do a number of times in recent years where they find a chance to take out a number of leaders at the same exact time. What this does, it could make command and control very difficult. It can be difficult to decide who's giving orders, and it could also hurt the morale of your enemy.

[Jessica Mendoza]

After this decapitation strike, Israel bombarded Iran's air defenses and missile launch sites.

[Dov Lieber]

So once the air defenses are taken out, then the Israeli and American planes could fly over Iran itself. They had immediately achieved aerial superiority over Iran. They were bombing at will, whatever they wanted.

[Jessica Mendoza]

And while all of this was happening, the US was with Israel in this war. What was the US's role there?

[Dov Lieber]

Well, the US and Israel have been working hand in hand, but they've kind of divided responsibilities throughout the entire war. The United States main responsibility has been destroying the Iranian Navy, the Iranian air force, you know, just pure firepower. Israel has been doing some of the same things, but Israel has been kind of the tip of the spear in terms of this regime change campaign.

[Jessica Mendoza]

According to Wall Street Journal reporting, the CIA shared information with Israel to assist in the strike on the supreme leader. Following what it saw as a strong start to the war, Israel moved to the next phase in its a sophisticated targeting of Iran's security forces.

[Dov Lieber]

Immediately after killing the Supreme Leader of Iran and his top generals, Israel starts blowing up all of the headquarters of the internal security forces of Iran. So the irgc, the police, the besieged, which is like a million man militia, all the different organizations that are responsible for internal security, and then it watches as those security forces move to their auxiliary sites, for example, sports stadiums. It waits for them to fill up those sports stadiums, and then it bombs sports stadiums.

[Jessica Mendoza]

By mid March, Israel said it had dropped 10,000 munitions on a range of targets. Israel believes thousands of members of Iran's security forces have been killed or wounded. Alongside the bombings, Israeli intelligence also made efforts to weaken the Iranian regime from inside.

[Dov Lieber]

I think from Israel's point of view, they were really trying to get the senior commanders of the regime to turn sides essentially to either quit their roles or join some kind of opposition or just stand aside.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Dov and his colleagues reviewed Israeli intelligence documents, and one instance that stood out was a phone call between a Mossad agent and an Iranian police commander.

[Dov Lieber]

The Mossad agent calls the official and he says, can you hear me? And then he says, we know everything about you. You're on our blacklist, and we have all the information about you. Okay, the commander says, and then the Mossad agent says, I call to warn you in advance that you should stand with your people's side. And if you will not do that, your destiny will be as your leader. Do you hear me? And then the Iranian commander responds, brother, I swear on the Quran, I'm not your enemy. And then he says, I am a dead man already. Please come help us.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Hmm. What was the significance of that call when you heard it, what did you think?

[Dov Lieber]

It's a window inside the campaign. You don't really hear about the campaign to really threaten people. I mean, this was a key objective Israel wanted to reach. They wanted to see members of Iranian security forces putting down their weapons or standing aside or saying they weren't going to take part in the war anymore.

[Jessica Mendoza]

But after those initial successes, things started to slow down. Regime change wasn't materializing. Soon after Khamenei was killed, Iran announced his son as successor, meaning the Islamic Republic was still in place. The Iranian people didn't rise up either.

[Dov Lieber]

When we were speaking to Iranians, myself and mostly my colleagues really were speaking to them, they said, you know, many of them said, well, we would like the regime to be gone, but Protesting now would be suicide. Throughout the entire war, Iran itself was threatening people do not protest. If you protest, we will consider you as abetting the enemy, okay, which is a threat to kill them. And they were very, very blunt about that. So despite the shakiness of the security forces, they were always still there. And the civilians in Iran always knew that.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Meanwhile, Israel's goal of destroying the threat of Iran's ballistic missile systems is still unfulfilled. While Iran's ballistic missile capacity has been severely damaged, the regime still has a stockpile of weapons enough to hit US Military bases and economically sensitive targets across the Persian Gulf and shoot missiles into Israel. Barrages of missiles from Iran continue to send Israelis across the country into bomb shelters. And still Iran's nuclear capabilities remain a major unresolved issue for Israel.

[Dov Lieber]

Well, throughout the war, they've been hitting nuclear sites, sites that they hit again last year. They hit them again and they hit some new sites. And if the Iranians want to restart their nuclear program, it may be very difficult for them. But they still have highly enriched uranium buried deep underground. And if they manage to procure that enriched uranium, they could potentially, according to experts, find a way to enrich it to rapids grade level. The regime is still there. It's digging in and it's projecting power it has by taking control over who can pass through the Straits of Hormuz. The Iranian regime looks emboldened. It doesn't look like it's wobbling. It looks emboldened. And this could be an even fiercer important for Israel in the future.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Now Israel is looking to weaken Iran in new ways. That's after the break.

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[Jessica Mendoza]

Israel has widened its focus to strike not just Iran's military facilities, but also industrial targets. Last week, Israeli forces hit Iranian Steel factories, some of the biggest in the region.

[Dov Lieber]

Why did it hit steel production facilities? Because you need steel to create missiles and other types of weapons, but at the same time, you also need steel to get your economy moving and working. So in one swift move, Israel harms the industrial capability of Iran, but it also harms its economy. Their hope is that by doing this, they can by time, and in that time, by the way that day, by who knows what happens. Maybe they remote protests. Maybe the American government begins a new economic strangulation campaign after the war to slowly bring the Iranian government down. So the slower they can recuperate, the more time the Israelis and the Americans have a chance to actually achieve regime change. So that's why they're going after all the supplies. They just want to buy more time.

[Jessica Mendoza]

How much longer is Israel expected to keep this up?

[Dov Lieber]

Look, it's the million dollar question. From speaking to my sources here in Israel, I hear one to two weeks. They could be done hitting all the targets they really want to hit. And once that happens, they can focus their energy on helping the Americans achieve their goals if they want to escalate.

[Jessica Mendoza]

In a briefing yesterday, an Israeli military spokesperson said that the country is able to continue fighting in Iran for weeks to come. Meanwhile, the timeline for US Involvement in the war remains unclear. Yesterday, President Trump said the US Operation in Iran was expected to be done in about two to three weeks. At the same time, though, the Pentagon is considering sending more American troops to the region, which could bring the total number to over 17,000.

[Dov Lieber]

Throughout this entire war, Trump has sent two different signals. The war will stop soon. The war is going to keep going. So, you know, on the one hand, he's got the stick, okay? And then it's moving towards the region right now, the new stick. But on the other hand, he has the carrot. And, you know, ultimately, if the Iranians concede to the American demands, well, then that's the victory. And if not, then they can try to achieve those aims militarily.

[Jessica Mendoza]

There are two main issues confronting the US As Trump talks about ending the war. One of those is restoring free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has seized control of the Strait, essentially shutting it down and upending global markets.

[Dov Lieber]

Currently, Iran looks emboldened. It now has taken control of the Straits of Hormuz, and it has leverage. And it's saying it's going to start taxing people in order to go through. So the major question is, what does America do next? Does it escalate? Does it try to wrestle control of the Straits of Hormuz from the Iranians

[Jessica Mendoza]

or not, the US is also working to gain control of Iran's uranium. The Iranians still have tons of enriched uranium buried underground.

[Dov Lieber]

You know, one way to do it would be to get so much leverage over Iran that they agreed to bring it out. You know, if the Americans and the Israelis can cause enough pain to the government where they say, you know what, if you stop the campaign, we'll give you the uranium. You know, that was potentially one way. The other way is to do, you know, some kind of operation to get it out of the ground. Foreign.

[Jessica Mendoza]

If the war were to end soon, Israel would still have its hands full because the Iranian regime would still be in charge. A regime that's opposed to Israel's existence. Also, Israel is continuing its fight on a second front.

[Dov Lieber]

That front is more than likely going to last far beyond this Iran confrontation, and that's in Lebanon. The Israelis are fighting the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. It's the strongest non state militant group in the world. And they've been fighting them basically since October 2023.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Hezbollah has been designated as a terrorist organization by the us. It's a militia group that has been supported by Iran for decades.

[Dov Lieber]

That's not a small front. Hezbollah can fire more rockets at the Israeli home front than Iran can currently. And they're a big threat to Israelis who live in Northern Israel. So they may shift their resources, more of their resources to the fight with Hezbollah while the Americans figure out what it is they want to do next in Iran.

[Jessica Mendoza]

But does the Israeli military have the resources for this? I mean, wouldn't the strikes against Iran have depleted its resources for a longer campaign elsewhere?

[Dov Lieber]

I've been asking Iran about this, and the reality is what I'm told is that in terms of munitions and manpower, they have it. They have it. But there is one resource that is very finite and very limited and very important, and those are the missile interceptors. And the longer the campaign goes on, the less Israel has, the less it can protect its strategic sites and its civilians. And that is a major problem and a major factor for Israel.

[Jessica Mendoza]

In a sign of the mounting pressure that its military is facing, Israel has started rationing its use of high end missile interceptors. Since the war started, there have been over 18,000 airstrikes in Iran with more than 1500 civilians killed. Over a dozen Israelis have been killed by missile strikes. What is your analysis of what's happened in this war from Israel's perspective? Like, where is it at now?

[Dov Lieber]

If the war were to end today as it is. I think what you're going to hear are two narratives. The first is that, well, mission success. I mean, Iran isn't the threat it was before a month ago. It can't shoot waves of hundreds of missiles at Israel, and its ability to project power has been significantly diminished. So there isn't this sword of Damocles hanging over the Israelis necks.

[Jessica Mendoza]

In a speech yesterday, Netanyahu said they were beyond the halfway point in the war effort with Iran. Netanyahu said Iran was no longer a threat to Israel's existence.

[Dov Lieber]

I think the critics of this campaign will say you've had a lot of tactical success, you've blown up a lot of things, you've really reduced their military capabilities. But where's the strategic success? Where is the permanent removal of the threats that you really wanted? Remember, we said at the beginning of this, what the Israelis really wanted was for this to be a decisive victory, and they haven't achieved that.

[Jessica Mendoza]

That's all for today. Wednesday, April 1. The Journal is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. Additional reporting in this episode by Benoit Foucault, Anat Pelid and Shaindy Rice. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.

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