Podcast Summary:

The Journal.
Episode: "Make Money Not War: Trump’s Plan for Peace in Ukraine"
Date: December 5, 2025
Hosts: Jessica Mendoza & Ryan Knutson
Guests/Reporters: Drew Hinshaw, Joe Parkinson

Main Theme

The episode investigates the Trump administration’s novel—and controversial—approach to the war in Ukraine: integrating American business interests into peace negotiations with Russia. Rather than leaving business opportunities for after a peace deal, the administration is actively forging a peace plan in close cooperation with powerful economic players on both sides, hoping that shared profits will serve as the foundation for lasting peace. The episode details secret negotiations, tensions with European allies, and the ethical quandaries of blending geopolitics and corporate ambition.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Origins and Nature of Trump’s Peace-Through-Business Plan

• Secret Meeting in Miami:
  • In October, three central figures—Kirill Dmitriev (head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund), Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff (Trump’s longtime friend and real estate mogul)—met to draft a peace plan for Ukraine.
  • These negotiations blurred the lines between peace efforts and major business deals. ([00:05]-[01:08])
• Plan Objectives:
  • Not just peace, but profit: The group sought to craft an agreement palatable to Russia, while paving the way for Russia’s $2 trillion economy to rejoin the global market—specifically, by lifting sanctions in tandem with the peace process. ([01:08])
  • Business as Diplomacy: As Joe Parkinson summarizes:

    "They're fusing this idea that business should not be something which follows a peace deal, but something which should be integrated into the negotiation itself." ([01:34])

2. The Cast and Their Connections

• Steve Witkoff: Trump’s friend and golfing partner, not a traditional diplomat, but Russia’s preferred interlocutor over the originally appointed US general. ([04:33]-[05:00])
  • “Putin sits with him for hours, he flies home with an American prisoner. It’s a real moment where Russia is saying, hey, if you work with us, we can do things together.” — Drew Hinshaw ([05:00])
• Kirill Dmitriev:
  • A Harvard/Stanford-educated Russian banker, sanctioned as the head of Russia’s sovereign fund but granted special entry for these talks. ([05:43]-[06:09])
• Network of Businessmen: Far from the McDonald’s era of American expansion, now a smaller, more exclusive group—many with personal ties to Trump and big stakes in energy projects—are angling for opportunities, should sanctions lift.
  • E.g., Gentry Beech, investor with ties to Trump Jr.; Exxon Mobil pursuing secret meetings with Rosneft. ([08:11]-[09:16])

3. Business Opportunities at the Core

• Russian Energy and Rare Earths as Bargaining Chips:

  “The Trump administration see(s)…key to the US economy, but also key to the next stage of global growth is…energy in the first instance, and the second is minerals in the form particularly of rare earths.”
  — Joe Parkinson ([06:38])

• Building Trust Through Deals:

  “We can take this relationship of business trust and move it to a relationship of political trust, of solving this geopolitical problem of Ukraine, where you’ve got so many people dying every day.”
  — Drew Hinshaw, paraphrasing Dmitriev ([07:29])

4. European Allies Alienated

• Limited Communication with Europe, None with Ukraine:

  • While Witkoff maintains a close channel with Dmitriev, Europeans are largely sidelined and frustrated by lack of access and consultation—Witkoff refuses to use secure lines preferred by European counterparts. ([12:30])

• Anchorage Summit: Turning Point:

  • Trump invited Putin to Anchorage; business opportunities were a notable part of the summit agenda, alongside frontline issues.
  • European leaders scramble to have their voice heard as U.S. pivoted away from old alliance norms. ([13:03]-[14:31])

• European Pushback after Plan Leak:

  • The leaked 28-point Miami plan included major Russian demands: limiting Ukraine’s military, blocking NATO path, ceding yet-unconquered territory to Russia.
  • Outcry from Europe; the Polish PM summarized: “We know this is not about peace. It’s about business.” ([15:56])

5. Fundamental Tensions & Flawed Premises

• Historical Lessons Ignored?
  • The “peace through business” idea was not new—Europe had long tried the same approach, with little effect on Russian aggression.

    “…If anything, business with Russia in the European case constrained European foreign policy much more than it constrained Russian foreign policy.”
    — Drew Hinshaw ([17:31])

• America’s Bet
  • U.S. officials hope that, as America is “different,” Putin may seek friendship, but some see the overtures as a method for Moscow to divide the West and buy time for more battlefield gains.

    “A question for history will be whether Putin has been entertaining this business as peace approach because he sees it as a route to end the war, or is this a way just to distract the US and pacify the Trump administration while Russia continues to throw more young men into the battlefields of Ukraine…”
    — Drew Hinshaw ([18:45])

• Straining Western Alliances
  • European allies are forced to question if the U.S. remains a true partner.

    “European allies are genuinely asking themselves if they are still in an alliance with the United States.”
    — Drew Hinshaw ([16:32])

6. Peace Talks Deadlocked

• Despite intense negotiations, Putin rejects proposed changes to the plan that would better represent Ukraine’s interests; no deal reached. ([17:02])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "They're fusing this idea that business should not be something which follows a peace deal, but something which should be integrated into the negotiation itself."
  — Joe Parkinson ([01:34])
• "The Trump administration is approaching this peace process like a chapter out of Art of the Deal. The thinking is we're going to come in there, we're going to settle this war and make sure that American companies benefit."
  — Drew Hinshaw ([02:02])
• "If you work with us, we can do things together."
  — Drew Hinshaw, quoting Russia’s message to Witkoff ([05:00])
• "We know this is not about peace. It's about business."
  — Polish Prime Minister (summarized by Drew Hinshaw) ([15:56])
• "European allies are genuinely asking themselves if they are still in an alliance with the United States."
  — Drew Hinshaw ([16:32])
• "If anything, business with Russia in the European case constrained European foreign policy much more than it constrained Russian foreign policy."
  — Drew Hinshaw ([17:31])
• "A question for history will be whether Putin has been entertaining this business as peace approach because he sees it as a route to end the war, or is this a way just to distract the US and pacify the Trump administration..."
  — Drew Hinshaw ([18:45])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:05-01:08: Secret businessmen meeting in Miami—plan origins and motivations.
• 02:02-02:53: Trump administration’s "Art of the Deal" approach; business enmeshment as strategy.
• 04:28-05:43: Profiles of Witkoff and his unique back channel with Russia.
• 06:33-07:29: Dmitriev’s U.S. visit; Russia offers energy/mineral deals.
• 08:11-09:59: Who’s lining up for Russian business? Trump donors, Exxon, and others.
• 12:11-12:58: Witkoff's private diplomacy, European frustration.
• 13:03-14:42: The Anchorage summit and aftermath; Europe forced to plead case directly to Trump.
• 15:03-15:56: The Miami plan leaks—Europe objects, Ukraine’s interests threatened.
• 16:32-17:02: Strains in U.S.-European relations over peace approach.
• 17:31-18:27: Lessons from Europe’s failed business-first strategy.
• 18:45-19:12: Is Putin buying time or embracing peace?

Conclusion

This episode exposes the radical reimagining of American diplomacy under the Trump administration: blending geopolitical negotiation with profit-driven business deals and risking traditional alliances in the process. While the U.S. hopes “making money, not war” can bring peace, allies fear it rewards aggression and divides the West. As negotiations stall and Putin rejects compromise, the true legacy of this approach—and who it ultimately benefits—remains uncertain.