Oil Companies Aren't Sold on Venezuela

Summary

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The Journal. – "Oil Companies Aren't Sold on Venezuela" (Jan 14, 2026)

Main Theme:
This episode investigates President Trump’s aggressive push for U.S. oil companies to invest heavily in Venezuela following the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro—aiming to control Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, shift geopolitical power in the Western Hemisphere, and reduce global oil prices. But, despite Trump’s overtures, U.S. oil executives remain deeply wary due to Venezuela’s troubled history, risky investment climate, and the unappealing prospect of low oil prices.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Objectives and Venezuela’s Oil (03:18–05:42)

• Regime Change and Oil Control: Trump prioritizes regime change (removing Maduro, who is accused of drug trafficking and ties to Russia/China) and control over Venezuela’s significant oil reserves.
• Oil as a Political Lever: Trump wants to boost global supply to bring oil prices down, aiming for $50/barrel—helpful for U.S. consumers and his political fortunes.
  • Notable Quote:

    "We're going to be taking out a tremendous amount of wealth out of the ground."
    — President Donald Trump (03:52)

2. Sanctions, the Shadow Market, and U.S. Leverage (05:03–07:26)

• Circumvented Sanctions: For years, U.S. sanctions pushed Venezuela to sell oil illicitly to adversaries via a ‘shadow fleet’ of aging tankers using false flags and fake locations.
• U.S. Clampdown: In December, the U.S. began blockading Venezuelan exports, seizing several tankers—cutting off the shadow market and gaining leverage over Venezuela’s state-run oil company (Pdvsa) and its interim government.
  • Notable Quote:

    "This added dimension of leverage...basically says, you know, you’re going to be working with us and us alone."
    — Andrew Restuccia (06:50)

3. Trump’s Vision: U.S. Control Over Venezuelan Oil (07:26–08:48)

• U.S. Role in Pdvsa: The administration wants to control (directly or indirectly) Venezuela’s oil output, marketing the oil globally and reshaping the world oil market, potentially challenging OPEC and Saudi Arabia.
• Private Sector Need: Trump cannot execute this plan without major U.S. oil companies investing and operating on the ground.

4. Oil Executives’ Reluctance & Risks (09:44–13:28)

• Wary Industry Executives: While superficially supportive at a White House meeting, oil CEOs gave no firm commitments to invest. Caution stems from Venezuela’s history of seizing (nationalizing) foreign assets and crumbling infrastructure.
  • Notable Moment: CEO praise is polite but noncommittal; leaders highlight infrastructure, legal guarantees, and workforce safety as major concerns.
  • Memorable Exchange:

    "If we look at the legal and commercial constructs and frameworks in place today in Venezuela today, it's uninvestable."
    — Darren Woods, ExxonMobil CEO (12:28)

• Burned in the Past: Exxon lost billions when Venezuela nationalized assets; payouts from international courts recouped only a fraction.
  • Host’s Paraphrase:

    "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Like, I'm not going to go in a third time."
    — Ryan Knudsen (13:07)

5. Trump’s Reaction to Oil Executive Pushback (13:28–14:14)

• Trump’s Ultimatum: The President threatens reluctant executives, saying he’ll bring in other companies if current industry leaders refuse to invest.
  • Notable Quote:

    "And if you don’t want to go in, just let me know, because I got 25 people that aren’t here today that are willing to take your place."
    — President Donald Trump (13:33)

• Further Provocation: Trump publicly criticizes Exxon’s CEO for being "too cute," even suggesting that the administration might block Exxon from Venezuelan opportunities.

6. The Price Problem (14:14–15:38)

• Oil Price Tensions: Trump wants oil at $50/barrel, but producers argue this is too low to justify investment, especially in risky environments.
  • Notable Quote:

    "Oil is hovering below $60 a barrel right now. They already think that's way too low...going down to $50 a barrel would have devastating consequences."
    — Andrew Restuccia (14:31)

• No Incentive: Major oil companies see insufficient reward for extraordinary risk, especially when a surging supply would further depress prices.

7. High Stakes: What If the Plan Fails? (15:38–16:34)

• Potential for Backfire:
  • Political instability in Venezuela could undermine U.S. control.
  • If U.S. firms abstain, the plan collapses.
  • Not enough oil production could make price impacts negligible.
  • The effort could strengthen U.S. adversaries if not executed well.
  • Memorable Analysis:

    "There's just an enormous potential for backfiring here."
    — Andrew Restuccia (15:50)

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• "I'm delighted to welcome almost two dozen of the biggest and most respected oil and gas executives in the world."
  — President Donald Trump (00:49)

• "Our giant oil companies will be spending at least $100 billion of their money, not the government's money. They don't need government money."
  — President Donald Trump (01:09)

• "If we look at the legal and commercial constructs and frameworks in place today in Venezuela today, it's uninvestable."
  — Darren Woods, ExxonMobil CEO (12:28)

• "And if you don’t want to go in, just let me know, because I got 25 people that aren’t here today that are willing to take your place."
  — President Donald Trump (13:33)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Trump gathers oil execs at the White House – 00:05–01:17
• Venezuela’s oil, sanctions, and shadow market – 03:18–06:50
• US blockade and leverage over Venezuela – 06:50–07:26
• Plans for control over Pdvsa, impact on global market – 07:26–08:48
• CEO meeting, reasons for reluctance – 09:44–13:28
• Trump’s public pushback against Exxon, industry skepticism – 13:28–15:38
• Risks of the plan backfiring – 15:38–16:34

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Tone and Style

The episode blends measured, fact-heavy reporting with moments of dry wit and skepticism, especially when paraphrasing oil industry frustrations and highlighting the realpolitik tensions between the White House and big oil. Guest Andrew Restuccia presents complex, high-stakes negotiations in clear, concise language, while hosts frame the situation with pointed questions and accessible explanations.

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Episode Takeaway

Trump’s grand plan for Venezuela’s oil faces serious skepticism from the very U.S. oil companies he needs most. They see too much risk, scant incentive, and have been burned before. Meanwhile, the geopolitical and economic stakes—market disruption, relations with adversaries, and the cost of failure—are higher than ever. The future of Venezuela’s oil, and its global repercussions, remains deeply uncertain.

Transcript

[Ryan Knudsen]

Ever since the US Captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, President Trump has made one of his top priorities clear, getting control of Venezuela's vast oil reserves. But to do that, Trump is going to need the help of US Oil companies. On Friday, last week, he called a group of oil executives to the White House for a televised meeting. Our colleague Andrew Restuccia is watching.

[Andrew Restuccia]

Ladies and gentlemen, the President of the United States. You have Trump and his top advisers, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, sitting at a series of tables in the East Room. And then around them at tables sort of formed in almost like a horseshoe, are the most powerful and influential US Oil executives today.

[President Donald Trump]

I'm delighted to welcome almost two dozen of the biggest and most respected oil and gas executives in the world.

[Andrew Restuccia]

All sort of there waiting to have a discussion about the future of Venezuela.

[Ryan Knudsen]

And what does Trump say to them?

[Andrew Restuccia]

He sends a message that he wants them to spend big and move quickly to invest in Venezuela.

[President Donald Trump]

Our giant oil companies will be spending at least $100 billion of their money, not the government's money. They don't need government money.

[Ryan Knudsen]

But there's a bit of a hurdle to Trump's big Venezuelan oil ambitions. Those US Oil companies aren't exactly thrilled about the idea of making that investment.

[Andrew Restuccia]

There's this pretty overriding sense in the US Oil industry that Venezuela is more trouble than it's worth. It will be a years long, if not decades long process. It'll face enormous hurdles and there's huge question marks hanging over the entire thing.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Welcome to the Journal, our show about money, business and power. I'm Ryan knudsen. It's Wednesday, January 14th. Coming up on the show, Trump's plan for Venezuela's oil.

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[Stassi Schroeder]

I am your host, Stassi Schroeder. Welcome to Tell Me Lies, the official podcast. What's the most unhinged thing of season three?

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Steven.

[Andrew Restuccia]

Because he's so, so evil. I do think he is misunderstood.

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You see everyone face consequences.

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[Ryan Knudsen]

President Trump has had several objectives in Venezuela. He wanted to take out Maduro, a dictator who allegedly fueled drug trafficking and cozied up to Russia and China. Maduro has denied allegations of drug trafficking. He also wants to exert more control over countries in the Western hemisphere. And then there's all that oil.

[President Donald Trump]

We're going to have presence in Venezuela as it pertains to oil, because we have to have.

[Andrew Restuccia]

He has said that the US Would be in control of the country indefinitely. And he's made clear that he intends to control the production and flow of oil out of Venezuela.

[President Donald Trump]

But no, we're going to be taking out a tremendous amount of wealth out of the ground.

[Ryan Knudsen]

A big reason Trump wants Venezuela's oil is to increase the supply of oil in the market and therefore lower the price.

[Andrew Restuccia]

He's told people, according to people on my team I've spoken to, that he wants oil prices to go down to as low as $50 a barrel. That's kind of his sweet spot. And he thinks that that would in turn lower gasoline prices and help him with what's really a big political problem, which is affordability. And he wants to sort oil prices as one answer to that political problem.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Venezuela is sitting on a lot of oil. By some estimates, it has the biggest oil reserves in the world, bigger than even Saudi Arabia. But for years, that oil has been pretty much off limits to the US and its allies. Maduro's government has been under harsh sanctions and Venezuela was essentially barred from selling its oil on the global market. But those sanctions didn't actually stop Venezuela. Instead, to get around those sanctions, Venezuela turned to countries like Russia, China and Cuba to sell their oil illicitly through a so called shadow market.

[Andrew Restuccia]

The sanctions regime that the US has put in place along with other Western nations is meant to sort of stop in its tracks the Venezuelan government from selling its oil around the world. And this shadow market has allowed the Venezuelan government up until now to get around that.

[Ryan Knudsen]

So rather than these sanctions getting the Venezuelan government to change, it just pushed it further into the arms of US adversaries like China and Russia.

[Andrew Restuccia]

Exactly. And one of the big strategic reasons why the US wants to play a bigger role in Venezuelan oil world is because they don't want China and Russia and other adversaries to take advantage of it. And so if the US Wants sanctions to have effect, they need to sort of shut down that market.

[Ryan Knudsen]

The shadow market relies on a fleet of more than 1,000 old oil tankers which move illicit oil around the world. They stay under the radar by using false flags, broadcasting fake locations and frequently changing their names. Late last year, the US Started taking steps to disrupt that shadow fleet. First by setting up a blockade around the shores of Venezuela. In December, the US Sent the Coast Guard to chase down tankers leaving Venezuela, board them and take the oil. The US Seized the Venezuelan oil tanker that's called the skipper. Some breaking developments concerning Venezuela this morning. The U.S. seized another, another oil tanker called Olina.

[Andrew Restuccia]

The U.S. coast Guard has also intercepted another Venezuela linked tanker. The US Seizing two more oil tankers today.

[Ryan Knudsen]

As tension builds in the Western Hemisphere today, the US has seized five oil tankers. So the fact that the US has taken control of these tankers and effectively made it impossible for Venezuela to export oil into the shadow market, what kind of leverage does that give the US Over Venezuela and its oil industry?

[Andrew Restuccia]

It gives them a huge amount of leverage and you know, if there wasn't leverage that was already put on them by capturing the leader of the country, this is this added dimension of leverage that basically says, you know, you're going to be working with us and us alone. And so the Trump administration has put this enormous amount of pressure on what's left of the Venezuelan regime. Delsey Rodriguez, the leader there, and she has signaled, she initially signaled that she was quite frustrated with the raid and that Maduro should be released. But in recent days she's taken a little bit more of a measured approach and telegraphed to the public that she's willing to work with the US with that leverage.

[Ryan Knudsen]

The US wants more influence over Venezuela's state run oil company, Pedavasa.

[Andrew Restuccia]

Our reporters have spoken to a number of senior administration officials who say that, you know, Trump and his top aides are eyeing Penveza and they want to take some control over it. Now, exactly what that looks like is a little bit unclear. You know, it's not our indication so far that they're going to be like that. The US Government is going to be running it full time. They would likely work with others, private companies, but their end goal is to essentially take control of the product, the oil that the state run oil company is producing, acquire it and then sell it onto the open market.

[Ryan Knudsen]

What would it mean for the global oil market if Venezuela's oil gets controlled by the US in the way that Trump is envisioning?

[Andrew Restuccia]

I mean, it could be a big game changer and it could be a huge challenge to OPEC and Saudi Arabia and the other Big oil producers. This would potentially rework the entire oil market as we know it.

[Ryan Knudsen]

But to carry out his vision, Trump is counting on American oil companies like Chevron, the only one that already has a presence in Venezuela. And he also wants other players to go in like ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips and Shell. Trump has said he expects those companies to invest $100 billion into the oil industry there. How badly does Trump need US Oil companies in order to carry out his vision?

[Andrew Restuccia]

I mean, he can't do it without them. Chevron is there and they've signaled that they're willing to ramp up production. But if he wants a full scale tapping of the potential of Venezuelan oil, he really needs more companies to get involved.

[Ryan Knudsen]

So why aren't the oil companies rushing in? That's next.

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[Ryan Knudsen]

$10 Tuesdays prices and participation may vary. Taxes, tips and fees extra. All right, so let's go back to that meeting we were talking about earlier with Trump at the White house with the CEOs of the oil companies. How did the CEOs who were there respond to Trump's plan?

[Andrew Restuccia]

It was interesting. We're used to sort of fawning behavior from executives at these event. And on the one hand, they were quite deferential to the President. They praised him, they talked about the potential of untapped oil reserves in Venezuela. On behalf of the men and women.

[Stassi Schroeder]

Of Marathon Petroleum and of our industry.

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Thank you and the administration for what.

[Stassi Schroeder]

You'Re doing for US energy independence.

[Andrew Restuccia]

But if you kind of read between the lines, what you saw was that none of these companies were giving a full throated commitment to put a huge amount of resources into the country.

[President Donald Trump]

There's a huge investment that needs to be done. We've all agreed on that. And certainly we need time to see that through.

[Andrew Restuccia]

And obviously infrastructure is going to be.

[Darren Woods]

Critical to see it repaired.

[Ryan Knudsen]

The reason those oil executives are concerned is because from their perspective, Venezuela is an extremely difficult market. The biggest challenge there is the government. US Oil companies used to have a major presence in Venezuela, but in the 70s and again in the early 2000s, the Venezuelan government took over their operations and basically kicked them out.

[Andrew Restuccia]

You have a country with a history of nationalizing oil assets. So companies get all set up, and then the government basically takes their assets and takes their profits.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Although the West's oil sanctions didn't seem to slow Venezuela's oil business much, decades of internal mismanagement and corruption has. Infrastructure is crumbling, and there's been a drain of technical expertise.

[Andrew Restuccia]

It's going to cost potentially billions of dollars to rebuild the Venezuelan oil infrastructure, which is in decay. They would have to have guarantees that they can go there and their workers would be safe. They've already had decades of problems with the Venezuelan government, and there's just a lot of uncertainty in Venezuela right now.

[Ryan Knudsen]

With all this in mind, one CEO was especially vocal about his hesitation at that meeting last week.

[Andrew Restuccia]

ExxonMobil CEO Darren woods was there, and, you know, he, to be fair, was being, you know, diplomatic in his remarks.

[President Donald Trump]

Exxon, please.

[Darren Woods]

Sure. Thank you, Mr. President. I appreciate the invitation and the opportunity, frankly, for the entire industry to show up and provide a perspective.

[Andrew Restuccia]

But one remark in particular caught the attention of us here at the Journal and the President.

[Darren Woods]

If we look at the legal and commercial constructs and frameworks in place today in Venezuela today, it's uninvestable.

[Andrew Restuccia]

Wood said that Venezuela is currently, quote, uninvestable. And he talked about how the company had had their assets seized twice in the past.

[Darren Woods]

And so you can imagine to re enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes from what we've historically seen here and what is currently the state. If we look at the legal and commercial.

[Andrew Restuccia]

It was notable because it was the clear sort of pushback on this idea that these companies can just waltz into Venezuela and very easily pull the soil out of the ground and make a ton of money.

[Ryan Knudsen]

He's sort of saying, like, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Like, I'm not going to go in a third time.

[Andrew Restuccia]

Yeah, exactly. You know, and the company tried to get $12 billion back from the Venezuelan government in 2007 when they seized their assets, and they only got a fraction of that. And so they're already out money here. And so they're essentially signaling, like, this is a big risk.

[Ryan Knudsen]

At that Friday meeting, Trump had a message for oil executives who seemed reluctant.

[President Donald Trump]

And if you don't want to go in, just let me know, because I got 25 people that aren't here today that are willing to take your place.

[Andrew Restuccia]

And so he sends this message to them that it's either you or it's going to be someone else, and they're going to reap the benefits of this if you don't.

[Ryan Knudsen]

And on Sunday, the President responded specifically to the comments made by Exxon CEO.

[Andrew Restuccia]

Reporters asked him about the plans in Venezuela, and he kind of shot back at Darren woods, the Exxon CEO. He said he really didn't like what he was saying. He said he thought he was playing a little too cute. And he then went further and said that he might actually proactively block Exxon from any sort of involvement in Venezuela.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Exxon didn't respond to requests for comment. Aside from investing in Venezuela specifically, Trump also said he has this goal of bringing the price of oil down to $50 a barrel. So how do oil companies feel about that?

[Andrew Restuccia]

Yeah, I mean, they're frankly really worried about it. Oil is hovering below $60 a barrel right now. They already think that's way too low because obviously they want higher oil prices to increase profits and then also make the huge amount of investment that they need to put in to find new oil and produce this oil to be worth it. And so going down to $50 a barrel would have devastating consequences, in all likelihood for the US Oil industry, shale operations in Texas and other places, and then more for Saudi Arabia and others.

[Ryan Knudsen]

And if you're an oil company, you're thinking, okay, do I want to invest a ton of money, take a ton of risk, and go into Venezuela, a country that's burned me many times before, just so that the reward for me at the end can be $50 a barrel, which is less than I ever want to sell oil for in the first place?

[Andrew Restuccia]

Yeah, exactly. The incentive structure here is a little bit confusing. If Trump's vision is to pump way more oil and put more out into the markets and then lower prices, I mean, that doesn't give the companies a huge amount of incentive to take these big risk.

[Ryan Knudsen]

If things work out the way Trump wants, the US and its oil companies would secure a major source of oil and gain unprecedented dominance in crude oil reserves. But if it doesn't, it could backfire.

[Andrew Restuccia]

In a number of ways. You know, if the Venezuelan government sort of splits into factions and there's infighting there and the US Government isn't able to control it, that's one way. If U.S. oil companies, you know, essentially reject the presidents and treaties and choose not to invest in a big way in Venezuela, that's another way. If they're not able to produce the amount of oil to actually lower oil prices and gas prices in a significant way, that's. That's another. So there's just an enormous potential for backfiring here.

[Ryan Knudsen]

That's all for today. Wednesday, January 14th. The Journal is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. Additional reporting in this episode by Shelby Holiday, Brian Schwartz, Josh Dossey and Benoit Moran. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.