Red, White and Who? It's Trump.

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Journal - “Red, White and Who? It's Trump”

Overview

In the November 6, 2024 episode of The Journal, hosted by The Wall Street Journal and Gimlet, hosts Kate Linebaugh, Ryan Knutson, and Jessica Mendoza delve into the dramatic developments of Election Night. Titled “Red, White and Who? It's Trump,” the episode provides an in-depth analysis of Donald Trump’s surprising victory over Kamala Harris, the reactions from both campaigns, and the broader implications for the American political landscape.

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1. Election Night Unfolds

The episode kicks off with Ryan Knutson and Molly Ball (likely a pseudonym or stand-in for a guest contributor) discussing the early hours of Election Night. At 00:22, Molly Ball announces the clear winner:

“It is red, white, and Donald Trump.” (00:28)

Cedric Richmond, representing Harris’s campaign, initially celebrates the victory:

“This is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow us to.” (00:35)

However, the mood shifts quickly as it becomes evident that Trump has a decisive lead, leading to Harris’s concession.

2. Immediate Reactions and Declared Victory

At 00:45, Knutson highlights the unexpected swiftness of the results:

“The one thing that is the most surprising to me is that we know who the winner is tonight.” (00:45)

Molly Ball explains the efficiency of the vote-counting process and the substantial lead Trump has in key states like Georgia:

“Donald Trump is winning Georgia by about 3 percentage points and more than 100,000 votes.” (01:12)

3. Historical Context of Trump’s Victory

Molly Ball characterizes Trump’s win as one of the greatest comebacks in American political history:

“A lot of people counted Donald Trump out. ... Donald Trump will be both our 45th and our 47th president of the United States.” (01:53)

This unprecedented scenario underscores Trump’s resilience and the volatility of the current political climate.

4. Kamala Harris’s Campaign Event at Howard University

Transitioning to Kamala Harris’s official watch party in Washington, D.C., Molly Ball describes the initial upbeat atmosphere:

“There was a big field... a big, big crowd stretching as far as the eye can see... festive.” (04:12)

As results shift unfavorably, the mood becomes somber. Cedric Richmond addresses the crowd around 05:14:

“We will continue overnight to fight to make sure that every vote is counted, that every voice has spoken so you won't hear from the vice president tonight.” (05:14)

5. Analysis of Voter Demographics and Trump’s Broad Appeal

Molly Ball provides a comprehensive breakdown of Trump’s performance across various voter groups:

“He improved a lot on his 2020 showing with minorities, with Latino voters, with black voters, with young voters, with male voters.” (08:15)

Despite expectations that Harris could leverage strong support from women, educated, and suburban voters to her advantage, Trump demonstrated an across-the-board improvement, weakening Harris’s expected margins.

6. Strategic Missteps and Fundamental Dynamics

When discussing Harris’s campaign challenges, Ball notes that many analysts believe the outcome was driven by fundamental election dynamics rather than specific strategic errors:

“The fundamental dynamic of this election was that the electorate wanted change... she was given many opportunities to do that. And she basically said that she agreed with the administration's decisions...” (09:09)

Harris’s inability to distinguish herself from the incumbent administration may have hindered her ability to position as a candidate of change.

7. Implications for Senate and House Control

Addressing the broader political ramifications, Molly Ball outlines the shift in legislative power:

“Republicans have taken the Senate... Republicans also won West Virginia... control of the House of Representatives is still up in the air.” (11:17)

A Republican trifecta—controlling the Presidency, Senate, and potentially the House—would enable Trump to implement his agenda with minimal opposition.

8. Prospects of a Trump Presidency and National Unity

The hosts explore the potential challenges of a Trump-led administration in a divided nation. Molly Ball reflects on the likelihood of national unity:

“It's really on the candidates. It's on both of them to try to do that. ... less than 50%.” (14:49)

She warns of possible destabilizing policies, such as mass deportations and imposing massive tariffs, which could exacerbate national tensions and economic instability.

9. Final Thoughts and Future Projections

As the episode wraps up, Molly Ball emphasizes that the outcome aligns with polling trends, highlighting that voter turnout ultimately favored Trump. The hosts express anticipation for future developments and the ongoing impact of this election on American politics.

“This was a really close race. ... it came down to turnout, and the turnout favored Donald Trump.” (13:19)

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Conclusion

The episode of The Journal provides a nuanced exploration of Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the 2024 election, examining the factors contributing to his success, the shortcomings of Kamala Harris’s campaign, and the significant consequences for the U.S. Senate, House of Representatives, and overall governance. With insightful analysis and expert commentary, listeners gain a comprehensive understanding of the night’s events and their lasting impact on the American political landscape.

Notable Quotes:

• Molly Ball (00:28): “It is red, white, and Donald Trump.”
• Cedric Richmond (00:35): “This is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow us to.”
• Ryan Knutsen (00:45): “The one thing that is the most surprising to me is that we know who the winner is tonight.”
• Molly Ball (01:53): “Donald Trump will be both our 45th and our 47th president of the United States.”
• Cedric Richmond (05:14): “We will continue overnight to fight to make sure that every vote is counted...”

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About the Hosts and Production

The Journal is a collaboration between The Wall Street Journal and Gimlet, produced by Spotify and The Wall Street Journal. The episode featured contributions from Reed producers Rachel Humphries and Pierce Singe, editor Catherine Whalen, and was engineered by Peter Leonard and Griffin Tanner. Special thanks were given to Caitlinbaugh, Sarah Platt, Ben Pershing, and the entire Journal team.

For more information and to engage with future episodes, listeners are encouraged to visit The Wall Street Journal Shop and reach out with questions or comments at [e-mail].

Transcript

[Ryan Knudsen]

You could be honest. I mean, it's 3:11am how do you feel right now?

[Molly Ball]

I'm wide awake. It's election night. This is the exciting time when we finally get to learn the answer to the question that we've been asking for so long.

[Ryan Knudsen]

All right, so, well, let me ask you that question. Red, white, and who?

[Molly Ball]

Well, Ryan, it appears. Ding, ding, ding. We have a winner. It is red, white, and Donald Trump.

[Cedric Richmond]

This is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow us to.

[Molly Ball]

Make America great again.

[Ryan Knudsen]

So at this moment, we're talking just after 3am and the race hasn't officially been called at this moment, but there doesn't seem to be any path for Kamala Harris to win at this point. And Donald Trump has declared victory. The one thing that is the most surprising to me is that we know who the winner is tonight. I mean, we thought for such a long time that there would be days potentially before we would get an answer.

[Molly Ball]

And it turns out they were much better at counting votes than we thought. And also, the margins are not quite as close as we feared. That was the reason, remember, that we thought that it might take days to get an answer was just because if the margins were going to be as close as 2020, where 12,000 votes in Georgia, for example, then we really might still be waiting. But as of this moment, it looks like Donald Trump is winning Georgia by about 3 percentage points and more than 100,000 votes, which means we don't have to wait for the last 5 or 10,000 votes to come in to know who won.

[Ryan Knudsen]

What is the significance of this moment?

[Molly Ball]

You have to say that this is one of the greatest comebacks in American political history. A lot of people counted Donald Trump out. There's only been one time before in our history that a president who has lost an election has then come back and won again later. And a lot of people didn't think he could do it, but it appears that Donald Trump will be both our 45th and our 47th president of the United States.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Okay, Molly. Well, let's get into it. From the Journal. This is Red, White, and who, our.

[Molly Ball]

Show about the road to the White House.

[Ryan Knudsen]

I'm Ryan Knudsen.

[Molly Ball]

And I'm Molly ball.

[Ryan Knudsen]

It's Wednesday, November 6th. Coming up on the show, Donald Trump looks set to retake the White House.

[Rachel Humphries]

This episode is brought to you by Empower. If you're like most people, you've got your fair share of financial questions, questions like, will we be able to afford having a third kid? Will we be able to do everything we want when we retire. What if we outlive our savings? Empower knows these questions can be stressful, but they'll help answer your what ifs and Empower what's Next? So join 18 million Americans and take control of your financial future with Empower. Start [e-mail] this episode is brought to.

[Cedric Richmond]

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[Ryan Knudsen]

Now you're at the Kamala Harris official Watch Party at Howard University in Washington, D.C. tonight. What was the mood there like right now and over the past few hours?

[Molly Ball]

Yeah, well, it started out very joyful and cheerful and you know, they had this big field where the event was going to be held and it was full of Harris supporters and Harris empowered students. So a big, big crowd stretching as far as the eye can see and there was a DJ spinning and people were dancing and it was festive. That was before the polls started to close. And after the polls started closing and as the hours wore on and it became clear that the results were looking more and more and more dire for Kamala Harris, people started to sit down, people stopped dancing, people got pretty quiet and you started to see much more of a somber mood until finally at about 12:30 in the morning, Cedric Richmond, who is a co chair of Kamala Harris's campaign, came out and said she will speak tomorrow. You can come back then. But if you came here hoping to see Kamala Harris, that is not going to happen tonight.

[Cedric Richmond]

We will continue overnight to fight to make sure that every vote is counted, that every voice has spoken so you won't hear from the vice president tonight.

[Molly Ball]

As the night wore on, people started to trickle out, started to leave. Our senior producer, Rachel Humphries spoke to several of them as they were leaving.

[Ryan Knudsen]

I'm feeling like we've just suspended the judgment until we get the votes in.

[Molly Ball]

Right.

[Cedric Richmond]

So there's no because a lot of people are saying Trump has won. How do you react to that? Nowhere in any scenario does he win. In my book, I have to believe in women and democracy and I mean the right for women to want to be in control of their own bodies there's no way.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Lots of disbelief among Harris supporters, I'm sure. Was there a point in the night when you started thinking that things were looking good for Trump?

[Molly Ball]

We started getting some clues early on. Florida was one of the first states to report, and it was very, very red.

[Cedric Richmond]

In Florida, once an electoral battleground that.

[Molly Ball]

Has moved right in recent circles, CBS.

[Cedric Richmond]

News projects Trump will win the Sunshine State.

[Molly Ball]

And at first, I think it was tempting to write that off as an outlier, just because Florida has been trending redder and redder for years. But when you started to look under the hood, you know, you look at some of the individual districts or some of the different geographies, one part of the state in particular, the Orlando area, which is where a lot of the Puerto Ricans in Florida live, was very strong for Trump. He won Miami Dade county as well, which has historically been a Democratic and a heavily Latino county. So those were clues that this bluster we'd been hearing from Democrats about how Latinos were swinging massively in their direction in the wake of the Madison Square Garden incident, that that might not actually be true. And then as the other east coast poll to close, you got little clues, like in Virginia, where I live, a suburban county, Loudoun county, that has turned Democratic in recent years, Harris was underperforming Biden's vote share in that county by eight points. So while she was still winning it, she wasn't winning it by nearly as large a margin as Biden did. And if you recall what we've talked about with Harris's strategy, she needed to blow out Biden's margins in areas like that. She needed to win bigger than he did in suburban and exurban areas in order to compensate for what we expected would be Trump's large margins in rural areas. So that was the first clue that we got that this was not going to be a blowout race in Kamala Harris favor.

[Ryan Knudsen]

What do we know about who showed up for Trump?

[Molly Ball]

You know, on the one hand, you can dissect this and say this group went well for him, and that group went well for him. But this was really an across the board improvement for Trump. He basically did better than expected. He improved a lot on his 2020 showing with minorities, with Latino voters, with black voters, with young voters, with male voters. But he also did not suffer the enormous deficits with women voters, with educated voters, with suburban voters that Harris was expecting would compensate for some of those losses. So he really just did well across the board in almost every group compared to where he had been in the past.

[Ryan Knudsen]

And sort of the inverse of that question. Where do you think things went wrong for Harris tonight?

[Molly Ball]

Well, there's going to be a lot of rending of garments and gnashing of teeth among Democrats over the weeks and months to come over that question. And some of them may point fingers at specific strategic decisions made by her campaign. But in making sort of a first round of calls to my smartest Democrat and Republican friends this evening, they mostly said they didn't think there was much she could have done, that this was really a race that was about the fundamental dynamics of this election. And the fundamental dynamic of this election was that the electorate wanted change. The electorate was broadly unhappy with the course that the country was on, and they really wanted a different direction. And so for Harris, who is part of the incumbent administration and who really refused to differentiate herself from Joe Biden, she was given many opportunities to do that. And she basically said that she agreed with the administration's decisions and had been a part of them, rather than expressing any sort of regret for some of the things that meant Americans see as failures of this administration. She wasn't able to position herself as a candidate of change at a time when that was what so many voters wanted.

[Ryan Knudsen]

All right, so we're going to take a quick break, and when we come back, we're going to talk about some key House and Senate races, the other stuff that was going on on Tuesday night. So obviously the big question of the day is Trump or Harris. But there were also some House and Senate races that will be important for how the next president governs. Coming into this election, the Democrats had control of the Senate and Republicans had control of the House. How are things looking now?

[Molly Ball]

Well, we know Republicans have taken the Senate. Some of the key races that we've talked about on this show, you may remember we talked a lot about the Ohio Senate race, Sherrod Brown. And Sherrod Brown has lost that race. The Republican Bernie Marino has won it. Republicans also won West Virginia. So that means game over. They've taken the Senate and they look like they're well positioned to compete in many of the other Senate races as well. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. We expect they will probably win Montana. So it's really just a question now of the size of the Republican majority. The House is a different question. We don't know that for sure yet. It's still pretty up in the air and both parties have flipped some seats. So I think it'll be a while before we have a sense, just given the closeness of the margin of which party controls the House of Representatives?

[Ryan Knudsen]

Which would be a big deal, of course, because if Donald Trump wins the presidency, as we expect, Republicans have taken the Senate, and if they also take the House, there's also a supermajority of conservatives on the Supreme Court. All of which would clear the way for a pretty unencumbered Trump presidency.

[Molly Ball]

Absolutely. If he has a trifecta, which most presidents get when they come into office, control of the House and Senate, that would really give him a governing majority, the ability to implement his agenda starting on day one. And what we know from reporting on the Trump campaign over the past year or so is that they've done a lot of planning for this. Unlike 2016, when it was such a shock to Donald Trump that he won, that he didn't have a lot of plans in place, he and his allies have really spent their years in the wilderness doing a lot of planning for the presidential transition and for the policymaking that he expects to do once he gets back to Washington.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Any other surprises?

[Molly Ball]

You know, while a lot of people are going to be shocked by the idea of Donald Trump returning to the presidency, I think the thing to say about this result is it actually isn't very shocking. It's pretty much what the polls were telling us. The polls were telling us that this was a tied race within the margin of error in either direction, and indeed, it looks like one candidate will narrowly prevail in the popular vote. The polls were telling us that this was a close race in all the battles, battleground states, and that either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump had the opportunity to win all of those states by a narrow margin. And indeed, it looks like one candidate will win most, if not all, of the battleground states by a narrow margin. So, you know, there was a lot of silly speculation over the past few weeks about maybe there's some hidden factor that we're not seeing. And actually, it's going to be a blowout in one direction or the other. But it turns out the polls were right. This was a really close race. And in the end, it came down to turnout, and the turnout favored Donald Trump.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Where do you think the country's gonna go from here? I mean, Democrats have used such strong language about the democracy being on the ballot and calling Trump a fascist, but now he's gonna be the President of the United States. So how do you think it's possible for the country to unite?

[Molly Ball]

Let the record reflect, there was a long pause before I figured out how to answer this question. You know, I asked one of my sources this question as I was writing my analysis of the race this evening, Carlos Cubello, a former Republican congressman from Florida, no fan of Trump. He didn't vote for either candidate in this election. He wrote in Peyton Manning. Good for him. Peyton Manning is a legitimate American hero and would probably make a great president, a wonderful quarterback. But we were talking about this idea that how will it be possible to heal the nation's wounds and bring people together and try to unite America around a way forward? And he said it's really on the candidates. It's on both of them to try to do that. And I said, what do you think is the likelihood that that happens? And he said, less than 50%. So I think there's going to be a lot of sad and angry and fearful Democrats. And, you know, we'll see how Harris handles this, we'll see how Trump handles this. But he, number one, is not someone who has really taken care to bring his opponents into the fold in the past. And number two, he has promised to do some pretty radical and potentially destabilizing things. So if he actually carries out his plans to conduct mass deportations, for example, that's going to send a lot of shockwaves through the American populace. If he carries out his plans to impose massive tariffs on all imported goods across the board, that's going to send shockwaves through the American economy. So we could be in for quite a destabilizing period.

[Ryan Knudsen]

All right, well, thanks so much, Molly, as always, for your for your time. Go get some sleep and we'll talk to you again in a few days.

[Molly Ball]

There's still a lot more to learn about what exactly just happened, so I look forward to it.

[Ryan Knudsen]

All right, thanks, Molly. Before, before we go, a reminder that this is not the last episode of Red, White and who, which means we still want your questions. What do you want to ask Molly about the results? Email us a voice Note to thejournalsj.com that's thejournalistic red, white and who is part of the Journal, which is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. Our senior producer is Rachel Humphreys. Our producer is Pierce Singe. Our editor is Catherine Whalen. I'm Ryan Knudsen. This episode was engineered by Peter Leonard and Griffin Tanner. Our theme music is by so Wiley and remixed by Peter Leonard. Artwork in the series by James Walton. Special thanks to Caitlinbaugh, Sarah Platt, Ben Pershing and the whole Journal team. Thanks for listening. Red, White and who will be back as usual on Friday morning. See you then.