The Journal - Episode Summary: "Red, White and Who? Why Trump Won and Where Democrats Go Next"

Release Date: November 8, 2024

Hosts:

• Ryan Knutsen
• Molly Ball

Overview:
In this pivotal episode of The Journal, hosts Ryan Knutsen and Molly Ball dissect the 2024 U.S. presidential election, analyzing why Donald Trump secured victory over Kamala Harris and exploring the future trajectory of the Democratic Party. The discussion delves into voter demographics, campaign strategies, key issues influencing voters, and the broader political realignment shaping American politics.

1. Election Outcome and Electoral College Breakdown

Ryan Knutsen opens the discussion by confirming Donald Trump's victory, predicting a final Electoral College tally of 312 votes for Trump to 226 for Kamala Harris. He emphasizes that this outcome aligns with their earlier forecasts of a decisive Electoral College win.

• Ryan Knutsen [02:21]: "It's looking like Trump is going to end up with 312 electoral votes to Kamala Harris. 226."

Molly Ball concurs, noting that while the term "blowout" is subjective, the uniformity in swing states tipping towards Trump was a significant factor in his victory.

• Molly Ball [02:42]: "All of the swing states ended up going the same way."

2. Voter Demographics and Trump's Diverse Coalition

A critical segment of the conversation revolves around the diverse coalition that propelled Trump to victory. Molly highlights that Trump expanded his appeal across various demographic groups, including minority voters, young voters, men, and notably, women.

• Molly Ball [03:22]: "Trump did very, very well with men, but he also did slightly better with women than before, with the result that the gender gap was actually smaller."

She points out that Trump achieved gains with black and Latino voters, challenging the Democratic assumption that these groups would remain steadfastly Democratic.

3. Kamala Harris's Campaign Shortcomings

The hosts critically assess Kamala Harris's campaign, attributing her loss to a lack of a compelling, authentic message and insufficient differentiation from the Biden administration.

• Molly Ball [04:37]: "She ran a very cautious, very scripted, very inauthentic campaign... voters often did not feel like they knew her or had a sense of what her vision or her worldview was."

Ball suggests that Harris's failure to present an animating vision and her reliance on repetitive speeches limited her connection with voters, echoing critiques reminiscent of Hillary Clinton's campaigns.

4. Key Election Issues: Abortion and Democracy

Abortion:
The episode delves into the role abortion played in the election. While abortion was a significant issue, it wasn't the top concern for voters. Notably, a plurality of voters who supported legal abortion did not fully trust either candidate's stance on it.

• Molly Ball [06:57]: "Voters wanted abortion to be legal and did not think that Trump would ban it, believed him when he said he would not enact a national abortion ban..."

Additionally, seven out of ten states with abortion ballot initiatives passed measures to enshrine abortion rights, even in states that voted for Trump, indicating a complex voter stance.

Democracy:
Knutsen and Ball explore the Democrats' emphasis on "democracy being on the ballot" and the backlash it received from voters who aligned with Trump's narrative equating the Biden administration to threats against democracy.

• Molly Ball [08:57]: "People did internalize the idea that democracy was on the ballot. But many of those people were Trump voters."

This strategy did not resonate sufficiently with the broader electorate, as Trump managed to capture voters concerned about democratic integrity.

5. Listener Questions and Analysis

Question 1: Election Integrity Concerns

Reid Lawrence from Pennsylvania raises concerns about potential nefarious influences in the election, given Trump's connections with wealthy individuals and foreign threats.

• Molly Ball [13:08]: "This election was free and fair and secure... billionaires potentially had an influence on it? Sure, but they're allowed to do that."

Ball reassures that there is no evidence of foreign interference significantly impacting the election outcome and emphasizes the legitimacy of the electoral process.

Question 2: Trump's Inner Circle and Policy Implications

Adam Hartman from Texas inquires about the benefits Trump gained from including former Democrats in his inner circle and the expected policy directions.

• Molly Ball [16:05]: "Trump did benefit from building this coalition... including RFK and his voters... skeptical of vaccines, the public health establishment..."

She anticipates Trump’s immediate actions, such as undermining the Justice Department's independence, ending the war in Ukraine, mass deportations, and reinstating tariffs, leveraging the newly secured Republican control of Congress.

6. Future of the Republican and Democratic Parties

Republican Party Post-Trump:

Ball discusses the potential longevity of Trump's reshaped Republican Party, which now encompasses a more ideologically diverse and demographically broader base.

• Molly Ball [25:17]: "A lot is up for grabs, and that is what I'm going to be interested in covering over the next four years."

She speculates on whether the coalition Trump has built will endure beyond his presidency, considering generational shifts and party dynamics.

Democrats in the Aftermath:

The Democratic Party faces significant introspection following their defeat. Ball highlights internal debates about reconnecting with the working class and addressing ideological fractures between centrists and progressives.

• Molly Ball [20:34]: "Democrats do flatter themselves that they are the party of the working class... voters did not believe that their policies were actually better for working people."

She also notes the party's silver linings, such as a relatively strong national popular vote and victories in several Senate races, suggesting resilience despite the loss.

• Molly Ball [23:07]: "Democrats are celebrating several historic firsts... an openly trans member of Congress, the first Korean American senator in New Jersey..."

7. Gender and Ethnicity in the Election Outcome

The role of gender and ethnicity is scrutinized, with some Democrats questioning if America was ready to elect a Black woman as president. However, Trump’s gains among women and minorities challenge this narrative.

• Molly Ball [22:08]: "Trump gain in vote share among both women and minorities... Democrats have to deal with."

8. Conclusion: Political Realignment and Looking Forward

The episode concludes with reflections on the political realignment triggered by Trump's victory. Both parties are at a crossroads, with the Republicans having consolidated a Trump-aligned base and Democrats needing to redefine their strategies to regain lost ground.

• Molly Ball [25:17]: "We are potentially in a fascinating political moment for this country where the parties have shifted on their axes and a lot is up for grabs."

Hosts' Closing Remarks:
Ryan and Molly express gratitude to listeners for their engagement throughout the election cycle and hint at continued coverage of the evolving political landscape in future episodes.

Notable Quotes:

• Ryan Knutsen [02:21]: "Trump is going to end up with 312 electoral votes to Kamala Harris. 226."
• Molly Ball [03:22]: "Trump won with the most diverse coalition of any Republican candidate in living memory."
• Molly Ball [04:37]: "She ran a very cautious, very scripted, very inauthentic campaign."
• Molly Ball [08:57]: "People did internalize the idea that democracy was on the ballot. But many of those people were Trump voters."
• Molly Ball [20:34]: "Voters did not believe that their policies were actually better for working people."

Key Takeaways:

• Trump's Diverse Coalition: Trump's ability to appeal across various demographics, including minority groups and women, was pivotal in his 2024 victory.

• Democrats' Strategic Missteps: Kamala Harris's campaign lacked a compelling, authentic message and failed to distinguish itself from the Biden administration, contributing to the Democratic loss.

• Impact of Key Issues: While abortion and democracy were significant, Trump's handling of these issues and voter perceptions played crucial roles in shaping the election outcome.

• Future Political Landscape: The Republican Party has undergone a substantial realignment under Trump, while Democrats must navigate internal ideological divisions and reconnect with the working class to regain prominence.

For more insights and detailed analyses, listeners are encouraged to explore upcoming episodes of The Journal as the political landscape continues to evolve.