The Journal.: "The Bank Collapse Behind Iran's Protests"

Date: January 15, 2026
Hosts: Jessica Mendoza, Ryan Knutson
Guests/Sources: Jason Bellini, Donald Trump (audio clip), Iranian officials & analysts

Episode Overview

This episode investigates the underlying financial crisis that triggered Iran's largest wave of protests since the 1979 revolution. Moving beyond the familiar narratives of political or civil liberties, the hosts detail how the collapse of a major Iranian bank, Ayande Bank, combined with years of international sanctions, culminated in catastrophic economic turmoil and unprecedented civil unrest.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Immediate Crisis and Its Uniqueness

• Revolutionary Atmosphere:

  • "Iran is facing a kind of revolutionary situation. This is the most significant challenge that the regime in Iran has faced since it came into existence after its last revolution in 1979."
    — Jason Bellini [00:13]

• Economic Driver of Protest:

  • Unlike Iranian flashpoints in the past, this crisis is not fundamentally about politics or civil liberties, but "stems mainly from a major financial crisis." — Jessica Mendoza [01:13]

2. Sanctions and Financial Isolation

• Impact of U.S.-Led Sanctions (2018):

  • Trump's withdrawal from the nuclear deal (JCPOA) and "the highest level of economic sanction" further severed Iran from international finance. [03:54–04:18]
  • Iran got "cut off from the swift payment system" and most international trade, making its economy extremely reliant on internal state controls. — Jason Bellini [04:35, 04:55]

• Government Workarounds and Their Limits:

  • Iran attempted to prop up its banking system via opaque oil sales and using banks in Iraq, but these workarounds failed after renewed U.S. pressure in 2023.
    — Jessica Mendoza [05:19]

3. The Central Bank’s Risky Role

• Heavy State Intervention:
  • By 2019, about 70% of Iranian banks were state-controlled (per a former IMF official).
  • The central bank employed emergency loans with high interest and no collateral, funded by printing money—leading to rampant inflation. — Jessica Mendoza [06:26]

4. Ayande Bank: The Collapse's Epicenter

• Founding and Business Model:

  • Founded in 2013 by Ali Ansari, Ayande Bank offered elevated interest rates and depended on the central bank. [06:53]
  • The bank primarily funneled funds into elite-connected real estate projects, especially the extravagant "Iran Mall."
    • "It's sort of like a city within a city." — Jason Bellini [07:44]

• Self-Dealing and Alleged Corruption:

  • Ansari directed bank funds toward his own companies/projects; officials later likened the bank to a "Ponzi scheme."
    • "Allende bank was operating a Ponzi scheme... they were loaning out more money than they could possibly repay." — Jason Bellini [08:30]

5. External Shocks and Escalation

• 2025 War with Israel:
  • Israeli strikes and subsequent brief conflict forced Iran to increase military spending, further straining finances.
    • "Money was leaving the country and Iranians themselves were taking their money out of the national currency, the rial." — Jason Bellini [10:22]
  • Result: Estimated $10–20 billion capital flight; the rial lost 84% of its value in a year.

6. Government Response and Public Fallout

• Ayande Bank Shutdown and Aftermath:

  • The central bank shut Ayande in October 2025; its founder blamed government policies.
  • The government inherited its debts, compounding fiscal crisis and leading to drastic budget cuts, including the removal of bread and gasoline subsidies.
    • "When you're talking about cuts on subsidies to bread and gasoline, like, those are things that are going to really hit ordinary people hard." — Jason Bellini [14:18]

• Trigger for Mass Protests:

  • Austerity measures totaling $10 billion in subsidy cuts pushed people into the streets.
    • "That was really the immediate trigger of these protests..." — Jason Bellini [15:04]
  • Unprecedented cross-sectarian participation, including traditionally regime-supporting regions.

7. Human Cost and Government Crackdown

• Scale of Protests and Repression:

  • Merchants, ethnic minorities, and religious conservatives protested.
  • Government responded with severe force; >2,600 confirmed deaths, >18,000 arrests.
    • "There's been this very deadly, very concerning crackdown on protesters where you've had hundreds, if not thousands of people killed." — Jason Bellini [16:36]

• Communications Blackout:

  • Near-total internet shutdowns hinder outside reporting on numbers and events.

8. Was the Crisis Inevitable?

• Analyst Viewpoints:

  • Many analysts say the crisis was precipitated by the government's own actions: banking system weakness, international isolation, war expenditures.
  • "Iran's government drove itself into a perfect storm of factors that caused this crisis, where you have this underlying banking crisis and a weak financial system, a war with a more powerful neighbor. And then a lot of Iranians are looking at this situation saying, okay, what was all this money spent on? Like, what was the point of all this?"
    — Jason Bellini [18:26]

• Final Note on Uncertainty:

  • "What comes next is completely uncertain and unpredictable."
    — Jason Bellini [19:01]

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• On the uniqueness of this moment:

  • "This is the most significant challenge that the regime in Iran has faced since it came into existence after its last revolution in 1979."
    — Jason Bellini [00:13]

• Explaining the central driver:

  • "[T]he unrest stems mainly from a major financial crisis."
    — Jessica Mendoza [01:13]

• On Ayande Bank's role:

  • "Allende bank was operating a Ponzi scheme. That is to say they were loaning out more money than they could possibly repay."
    — Jason Bellini [08:30]

• On capital flight and inflation impact:

  • "The rial fell roughly 84% over the course of the year."
    — Jason Bellini [10:22]

• Everyday impact:

  • "People had no idea how to put prices on their menus. Because when you have a currency that's declining every single day and every single hour, people don't even know how much to charge for things."
    — Jason Bellini [13:20]

• Government cuts’ political consequence:

  • "When you're talking about cuts on subsidies to bread and gasoline, like, those are things that are going to really hit ordinary people hard."
    — Jason Bellini [14:18]

• Severity of crackdown:

  • "There's been this very deadly, very concerning crackdown on protesters where you've had hundreds, if not thousands of people killed."
    — Jason Bellini [16:36]

• Looking forward:

  • "What comes next is completely uncertain and unpredictable."
    — Jason Bellini [19:01]

Important Segment Timestamps

• [00:13] – Setting the stage: biggest threat to the regime since 1979
• [03:47] – Roots of the crisis: U.S. sanctions and the nuclear deal's collapse
• [06:53] – Ayande Bank's risky business model and corruption
• [09:24] – The economic impact of the 2025 Iran-Israel conflict
• [11:04] – Ayande Bank shuttered; intensifying public pressures
• [13:12] – Daily impact: grocery prices, vanishing livelihoods
• [14:18] – Austerity budget and subsidy cuts
• [15:35] – Too little, too late: government’s attempted relief
• [16:36] – Brutal crackdown and the mounting death toll
• [17:07] – Communications blackout, lack of reliable information
• [18:26] – Was this crisis inevitable?

Summary

This detailed account reveals how systemic financial mismanagement, exacerbated by international sanctions and war, led not only to the collapse of Iran's banking system but also to the largest uprising in modern Iranian history. The episode illustrates the domino effect of financial isolation and elite corruption, the hardships of ordinary Iranians whose daily lives became untenable, and a government's ultimate failure to contain or pacify a population driven to desperation. The events raise fundamental questions about sovereignty, accountability, and the prospects for change in one of the world’s most isolated economies.