The Bean at the Center of the Trade War

Summary

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Podcast Summary: The Journal.

Episode: The Bean at the Center of the Trade War
Date: September 25, 2025
Hosts: Ryan Knutson and Jessica Mendoza
Guests: Scott Diericks (Iowa soybean farmer), Patrick Thomas (WSJ agriculture reporter)

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Episode Overview

This episode explores how American soybean farmers have become caught in the crossfire of the U.S.-China trade war. Through the story of Scott Diericks, a sixth-generation Iowa farmer, and insights from journalist Patrick Thomas, the show unpacks why soybeans are so important, how they became a bargaining chip between global powers, and the dire impact of China halting imports. The conversation also delves into broader implications for American agriculture and the rural economy, as well as potential government intervention.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Soybeans’ Role in U.S. Agriculture and Global Markets

[03:01-04:45]

• Corn is king, but soybeans are a close second in American agriculture, with around 80-85 million acres of soybeans planted annually.
• Soybeans are everywhere: They're "like a hidden gem" (Patrick Thomas, [04:19]), used in food products (tofu, soy milk), vegetable oils, processed foods, and even diesel fuel.
• The biggest consumer of soybeans isn’t people—it’s livestock feed, essential for supporting meat-heavy U.S. and global diets.

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2. U.S.-China Soybean Trade Relationship

[05:06-07:21]

• China cannot efficiently grow enough soybeans due to climate and economics, so it has long relied on imports, historically from the U.S.
• U.S. farmers shifted heavily to soybeans in the 1990s and 2000s to meet explosive Chinese demand.
• Infrastructure boom: Ports, railroads, and jobs sprouted throughout the American Midwest to support exports to China.

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3. Soybeans as a Trade War Bargaining Chip

[06:22-08:16]

• The U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese goods under President Trump, aiming to revive manufacturing and reduce the trade deficit.
• China retaliated strategically by cutting off U.S. soybean purchases, causing $30 billion in losses for American farmers during Trump’s first term.
• China diversified by investing in South American infrastructure, especially Brazil—now the source of 70% of China’s soy imports (up from 35% in 15 years).

"Their retaliatory measures... we're not going to buy your soybeans."
— Patrick Thomas, [08:07]

• China is also leveraging other imports, like rare earth minerals, to exert further pressure.

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4. Impact of the Current Standoff on American Farmers

[08:32-13:27]

• This year, China’s U.S. soybean orders have dropped to zero.

  "It's actually gone to zero."
  — Ryan Knutson & Patrick Thomas, [08:58]

• Farmers like Scott Diericks are facing their worst season for profits—he forecasts this year will be his lowest yet.
• Soybean prices have plummeted: Where once prices were "$13 in the teens," they're now down to about "$9.30 a bushel" ([10:17-10:37]).
• With no storage capability, Scott may have to sell at a loss, or even face dumping his perishable crop.

  "Maybe decide that farming was a hobby this year, not a business."
  — Scott Diericks, [11:02]

• For multi-generation farm families, this isn’t just economics—it’s deeply personal and threatens their legacy.

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5. Political and Economic Pressures

[12:44-13:54]

• Farmers are a key part of President Trump’s political base—China’s move puts pressure on his administration.
• Scott remains hopeful:

  "I'm hopeful that he makes this a priority to help out soybean farmers as well as people in the industry impacted by it."
  — Scott Diericks, [12:51]

• He urges officials to recognize "the short term pain is real," and calls for opening new markets and relationships.

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6. Looking for Solutions: Bailouts and Long-Term Shifts

[13:54-15:41]

• Industry groups are lobbying lawmakers to create new export markets and expand soybean uses (e.g., more biodiesel).
• Government bailout likely:

  "Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins has said that it's something they're going to work with Congress on... We saw it during the first Trump administration... So I think we're probably headed for another one here at some point at the end of this year."
  — Patrick Thomas, [14:12]

• Still, these crises expose how vulnerable U.S. agriculture is to overreliance on a single foreign buyer.

"If you lose that without good alternatives, it shows there's not a lot of slack in the system. You're left holding a bag of a lot of soybeans."
— Patrick Thomas, [14:54]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "We'd leave 4 o'clock in the morning... we'd see the barges getting ready to fill... they'd be exported all around the world."
  — Scott Diericks, on childhood memories ([00:34])
• "This year, American soybean farmers have a big problem. China isn't buying US soybeans, as in none at all."
  — Ryan Knutson, [01:08]
• "It's going to be the lowest profit per acre year... I'm forecasting."
  — Scott Diericks, [09:50]
• "It's tough to be in the middle."
  — Scott Diericks, [09:22]
• "There’s a lot of responsibility that I feel to carry on this tradition and make it successful and continue to build upon what previous generations have done."
  — Scott Diericks, [12:25]
• "There needs to be a long-term bit of soul searching from agriculture in terms of how they're gonna deal with China being able to just turn off buying American soybeans."
  — Patrick Thomas, [14:54]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:05] — Scott Diericks' story and childhood memories on the farm
• [01:08] — China’s sudden halt of U.S. soybean purchases
• [03:01] — The dominance and importance of soybeans
• [05:06-07:21] — U.S.-China trade and why China can’t grow its own soy
• [08:07] — China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. ag
• [09:50] — Scott Diericks on looming financial losses
• [10:17-10:37] — Price collapse of soybeans
• [11:02] — Consequences for unsold, unstored soybeans
• [12:25] — The personal impact and family responsibility
• [14:12] — The likelihood and history of government bailouts
• [14:54] — Long-term questions for U.S. agriculture

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Conclusion

The episode paints a vivid, personal, and systemic portrait of how a seemingly distant geopolitical trade war is reshaping the American rural landscape. Farmers like Scott Diericks are forced to reckon with short-term pain, long-term uncertainty, and their own role as pawns in global power plays. As policymakers weigh bailouts and industry leaders seek new markets, the fate of the American soybean—and the farmers who grow it—hangs in the balance.

Transcript

[A]

Scott Dericks is a sixth generation family farmer in Iowa. One of his primary crops is soybeans. And for most of his life, it hasn't been hard to sell them.

[B]

One really fond memory I have growing up is riding with my father early in the morning in a semi.

[A]

He remembers being a kid and loading soybeans onto a semi truck with his dad, driving down to the Mississippi river where they'd put them onto a barge.

[B]

We'd leave 4 o' clock in the morning before the sun came up. We'd drive into town, we'd park, we'd get in line before they were even open. And we'd stand on the Mississippi river and we'd see the tugboats out there. You'd hear the horns and we'd see the barges that were getting ready to fill. And it wouldn't be just one barge, it'd be multiple barges tied together. They'd go down the Mississippi, out to the Gulf of Mexico and then they'd be exported all around the world.

[A]

Most of them were bound for one. China. China is the world's biggest soy importer by a huge margin. Nearly a quarter of the soybeans grown in America end up there. But this year, American soybean farmers have a big problem. China isn't buying us soybeans, as in none at all. How important are soybeans to your family and your family history's livelihood?

[B]

They're extremely important. It is gonna be a challenge that the farm's not gonna produce any profit for my family. This year.

[A]

China is using soybeans as a powerful point of leverage in the trade war with the US now, as harvest season begins, the clock is ticking and farmers like Scott hope a solution will come soon.

[B]

I'm hoping it's short term pain for long term gain. But ultimately though, I really hope that we can all come to agreement that makes trade between different countries easy and easier. And that's going to be probably most beneficial for all parties involved. But right now, right now, it's tough.

[A]

Welcome to the Journal, our show about money, business and power. I'm Ryan Knudson. It's Thursday, September 25th. Coming up on the show, how American farmers became a trade war bargaining chip. On American farms, corn is king, but soybeans are a close second.

[C]

So corn and soybeans basically rule the American farm. They're number one and number two.

[A]

That's our colleague Patrick Thomas. He writes about agriculture. I think most people are very familiar with what a cornfield looks like, but can you describe what a soybean field.

[C]

Looks like if you drive down like an interstate in the Midwest, you'll see around knee high, like just fields of green. And those are soybean plants. And you may not notice them as much. They're just not as tall and imposing as the cornfield. But they're all over the place. I think it's 80 to 85 million acres of soybeans are planted every year. And for context, corn is about 90 to 95.

[A]

Okay, so they're pretty close.

[C]

They're pretty close.

[A]

I mean, and in the fall we still have corn mazes, but I haven't heard about any soybean mazes yet.

[C]

That would be difficult because you can see over the soybeans. So maybe you have to have really young children.

[A]

That sounds like it would be a lot easier and a lot less scary. So maybe we should introduce it. Soybeans look like any other bean. Unlike corn though, most people don't really eat soybeans straight up. They're used to make foods like tofu and soy milk. They're also crushed and turned into vegetable oil, which makes its way into nearly every type of processed food. They're even used in some diesel fuels.

[C]

Soybeans are like a hidden, really like a hidden gem out there in terms of what we use it for. Like in the same way that corn is found in like a number of different things that we wouldn't expect, like foods like ketchup and stuff. Like soybean is kind of the same thing. It's an ingredient in a number of different products.

[A]

But the biggest consumer of soybeans actually isn't people, it's livestock.

[C]

A lot of it goes to livestock. Feed feeds the animals which feeds our diet for meat and protein. Think of America's growth of chicken and chicken nuggets and just the American fast food diet of everything that goes into all of the meat we consume for our protein rich diets. That fueled the soybean growth in America.

[A]

Over the last few decades, demand for soybeans has skyrocketed, especially in China, where a growing middle class has developed an appetite for things like chicken and pork. Why doesn't China grow their own soybeans?

[C]

For a number of different reasons, China has struggled growing their own soybeans. Some of it comes down to climate, the farming economics in the country. There's kind of a number of different reasons why they're not very good at growing soybeans. And they've tried a number of different ways over the years, but they rely on importing beans in the US Can Grow a lot of beans. We have some of the best soil in the world in Iowa and northern Illinois and places like that. And that means that China started buying.

[A]

From the U.S. throughout the 90s and early 2000s, U.S. farmers switched to growing soybeans to meet the huge demand coming from China. And the agricultural industry started building up the infrastructure to get it there.

[C]

They built up ports in the Pacific Northwest, creating all sorts of jobs and business to farms in the Dakotas, like North Dakota became a big soybean growing state. Minnesota, all these places started shipping via rail out to the ports and we'd send it to China. And it became a booming business for 20 some years and really, really was a boom to many farmers.

[A]

But that started to change during President Trump's first term in office, after Trump implemented tariffs on Chinese goods. This is the first of many. This is number one, but this is the first of many. Trump has said his goal with tariffs is to revive US Manufacturing, cut the US Trade deficit, and help reduce the national debt.

[C]

China responds by not buying US Soybeans for a short period of time. It hurt prices. It led to almost $30 billion in losses for American farmers at that time. And the other big event, this is the second big thing that occurred during that was it told the Chinese during Trump's first term that they couldn't rely on America as a Relia soybeans supplier or that they needed to diversify. And so during that time, China decided, hey, we're going to spend a lot of money on improving the infrastructure in South America, so we're not caught at the bargaining table with Trump again over soybeans.

[A]

Since then, China has invested heavily in Brazilian ports, railroads and silos to make it easier for them to access the soybeans there. Last year, Brazil provided 70% of China's soy imports, double the share from 15 years ago. At the same time, China has slowly been stockpiling soy and they've been actively trying to change the diet of their livestock to include less soy overall. So when Trump returned to office for a second time, we're talking about a tariff of 10% on China. We're putting a 50% tariff on above the tariffs that we put on. There will be 104% tariffs going into effect on China tonight at midnight. China was prepared.

[C]

They take retaliatory measures. Their retaliatory measures this far includes, we're not going to buy your soybeans.

[A]

China has been using other products to pressure the US as well, like withholding the rare earth minerals that are used in Manufacturing cars, electronics and defense equipment. But for farmers, as the soybean harvest begins, time for a trade deal with China is running out.

[C]

It wasn't going to be until we brought in the crop that this was really going to come home to roost. And so now here in the next two months, this is when we really start to feel the effects of the trade war from six months ago that we talked about. This is when it comes in for the farmer. We're reaching that point. China has, so far, they haven't booked a single purchase from the US for this harvest for soybeans.

[A]

Wow. It's not like it's just gone down. It's actually gone to zero.

[C]

It has gone to zero. At this current moment of taping, it is zero.

[A]

China also knows that American farmers make up a key faction of Trump's political base.

[C]

The Chinese, in order to, in this trade war, get at the President, can hurt some of his most loyal supporters. And that's what a lot of this comes down to. And right now, it's working for them.

[A]

Farmers like Scott are feeling the pain.

[B]

It's tough to be in the middle.

[A]

How Scott is planning to navigate this harvest season is after the break. So far, it doesn't look like Scott Dierix is going to make any profit this year from his soybeans.

[B]

This year. Comparing it to my eight years of farming, it's. It's going to be the lowest profit per acre year, at least. I'm forecasting.

[A]

At the same time that China has stopped buying soybeans from the US The Department of Agriculture expects farmers to have one of the largest harvests in history, thanks to advances in farming technology. And when demand is down and supply is up, that can only mean one thing.

[B]

Prices are falling. And recently they've fallen drastically. So the futures price of soybeans is slightly over $10. But my local buyers are only bidding $9.30 a bushel.

[A]

And how much would they normally bid in prior years when the market was more healthy?

[B]

A couple years ago, beans were in the teens, was a common phrase. Beans are in the teens. And that was exciting. That's money. Money to be made in farming. So going from $13 down to 9:30, it's. It's pretty significant.

[A]

So what are you gonna do if you don't get more orders? Are you gonna have, like, a bunch of leftover soybeans?

[B]

That's gonna be the problem that I'm gonna face as well as a lot of farmers are gonna face. So I'm gonna be harvesting my soybeans soon. And I don't have any on site storage such as grain bins that I can pick it when it's ready, store it and wait for the prices to go up so I can ensure profitability. So I'm going to have to make the decision of selling at a lower price, maybe decide that farming was a hobby this year, not a business.

[A]

If you don't end up selling everything, what happens to the soybeans? You don't have a grain mill. Would you just have to dump them in the garbage? Basically correct.

[B]

If I don't sell it, I don't have any place to store it. So it'd be a waste because it is a perishable item.

[A]

What is this gonna mean for your family and your farm economically, to have farming, as you said, kind of become just a hobby this year, not really bringing any money?

[B]

Well, it'll bring up the conversations on why are we spending our time doing something that isn't making our family money.

[A]

Scott already doesn't make enough money farming to make a living. He's always held another job, but he says that as a sixth generation farmer, he doesn't ever want to give it up. Still, he worries what all this could mean for future generations.

[B]

I do see it continuing to be a challenge, not just for my generation, but for the next. And there's a lot of responsibility that I feel to carry on this tradition and make it successful and continue to build upon what previous generations have done.

[A]

Has this changed at all how you feel about President Trump?

[B]

I'm definitely, I'm definitely hopeful that he can make. I'm hopeful that he makes this a priority to help out soybean farmers as well as people in the industry impacted by it. I see him as being a cheerleader for the US Going out to other countries and helping promote why they should be doing business with us. And I'm hopeful he can get it done, and I'm hopeful he makes it.

[A]

A priority when it comes to the soybean trade. Is there anything that you'd want government officials or President Trump to know right now?

[B]

Know that the short term pain is real. I'm optimistic that they can improve it. There's so many things in life that you can't control that feel like aren't in your power. But a lot of people in this administration have the ability to have meetings, make relationships, solve problems, and ultimately, hopefully, they can open up new doors for US Soybean exports.

[A]

Our colleague Patrick says that industry trade groups have been pressing D.C. lawmakers to find new export markets outside of China and to expand the amount of soybean oil used in other products like diesel fuel. What are the chances that there's a government bailout coming for these farmers?

[C]

You know, I would say it's pretty high. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins has said that it's something they're going to work with Congress on and trying to get them funds. We saw it during the first Trump administration last year. They gave $10 billion to farmers for low commodity prices, trying to make them whole. So I think we're probably headed for another one here at some point at the end of this year.

[A]

President Trump said today that his administration plans to use some of the revenue it's generated from tariffs and give it to farmers even if there is a bailout. Patrick says this trade war could have a lasting impact on the farming industry.

[C]

I think there needs to be a long term bit of soul searching from agriculture in terms of how they're gonna deal with China being able to just turn off buying American soybeans. Basically you're relying on this one country to make this decision. If you lose that without good alternatives, it shows there's not a lot of slack in the system. When that buyer no longer comes to the table, you know, you're left holding a bag of a lot of soybeans.

[A]

Before we go, we want to know if you have any questions about personal finance. What kind of financial advice are you looking for these days? What worries you the most about building wealth in the current economic climate? Drop us an email or send a voice Note to thejournalsj.com that's thejournalsj.com that'S all for today. Thursday, September 25 the Journal is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. Additional reporting in this episode from John Emon. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.