Podcast Summary: The Journal.

Episode: The Bean at the Center of the Trade War
Date: September 25, 2025
Hosts: Ryan Knutson and Jessica Mendoza
Guests: Scott Diericks (Iowa soybean farmer), Patrick Thomas (WSJ agriculture reporter)

Episode Overview

This episode explores how American soybean farmers have become caught in the crossfire of the U.S.-China trade war. Through the story of Scott Diericks, a sixth-generation Iowa farmer, and insights from journalist Patrick Thomas, the show unpacks why soybeans are so important, how they became a bargaining chip between global powers, and the dire impact of China halting imports. The conversation also delves into broader implications for American agriculture and the rural economy, as well as potential government intervention.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Soybeans’ Role in U.S. Agriculture and Global Markets

[03:01-04:45]

• Corn is king, but soybeans are a close second in American agriculture, with around 80-85 million acres of soybeans planted annually.
• Soybeans are everywhere: They're "like a hidden gem" (Patrick Thomas, [04:19]), used in food products (tofu, soy milk), vegetable oils, processed foods, and even diesel fuel.
• The biggest consumer of soybeans isn’t people—it’s livestock feed, essential for supporting meat-heavy U.S. and global diets.

2. U.S.-China Soybean Trade Relationship

[05:06-07:21]

• China cannot efficiently grow enough soybeans due to climate and economics, so it has long relied on imports, historically from the U.S.
• U.S. farmers shifted heavily to soybeans in the 1990s and 2000s to meet explosive Chinese demand.
• Infrastructure boom: Ports, railroads, and jobs sprouted throughout the American Midwest to support exports to China.

3. Soybeans as a Trade War Bargaining Chip

[06:22-08:16]

• The U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese goods under President Trump, aiming to revive manufacturing and reduce the trade deficit.
• China retaliated strategically by cutting off U.S. soybean purchases, causing $30 billion in losses for American farmers during Trump’s first term.
• China diversified by investing in South American infrastructure, especially Brazil—now the source of 70% of China’s soy imports (up from 35% in 15 years).

"Their retaliatory measures... we're not going to buy your soybeans."
— Patrick Thomas, [08:07]

• China is also leveraging other imports, like rare earth minerals, to exert further pressure.

4. Impact of the Current Standoff on American Farmers

[08:32-13:27]

• This year, China’s U.S. soybean orders have dropped to zero.

  "It's actually gone to zero."
  — Ryan Knutson & Patrick Thomas, [08:58]

• Farmers like Scott Diericks are facing their worst season for profits—he forecasts this year will be his lowest yet.
• Soybean prices have plummeted: Where once prices were "$13 in the teens," they're now down to about "$9.30 a bushel" ([10:17-10:37]).
• With no storage capability, Scott may have to sell at a loss, or even face dumping his perishable crop.

  "Maybe decide that farming was a hobby this year, not a business."
  — Scott Diericks, [11:02]

• For multi-generation farm families, this isn’t just economics—it’s deeply personal and threatens their legacy.

5. Political and Economic Pressures

[12:44-13:54]

• Farmers are a key part of President Trump’s political base—China’s move puts pressure on his administration.
• Scott remains hopeful:

  "I'm hopeful that he makes this a priority to help out soybean farmers as well as people in the industry impacted by it."
  — Scott Diericks, [12:51]

• He urges officials to recognize "the short term pain is real," and calls for opening new markets and relationships.

6. Looking for Solutions: Bailouts and Long-Term Shifts

[13:54-15:41]

• Industry groups are lobbying lawmakers to create new export markets and expand soybean uses (e.g., more biodiesel).
• Government bailout likely:

  "Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins has said that it's something they're going to work with Congress on... We saw it during the first Trump administration... So I think we're probably headed for another one here at some point at the end of this year."
  — Patrick Thomas, [14:12]

• Still, these crises expose how vulnerable U.S. agriculture is to overreliance on a single foreign buyer.

"If you lose that without good alternatives, it shows there's not a lot of slack in the system. You're left holding a bag of a lot of soybeans."
— Patrick Thomas, [14:54]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "We'd leave 4 o'clock in the morning... we'd see the barges getting ready to fill... they'd be exported all around the world."
  — Scott Diericks, on childhood memories ([00:34])
• "This year, American soybean farmers have a big problem. China isn't buying US soybeans, as in none at all."
  — Ryan Knutson, [01:08]
• "It's going to be the lowest profit per acre year... I'm forecasting."
  — Scott Diericks, [09:50]
• "It's tough to be in the middle."
  — Scott Diericks, [09:22]
• "There’s a lot of responsibility that I feel to carry on this tradition and make it successful and continue to build upon what previous generations have done."
  — Scott Diericks, [12:25]
• "There needs to be a long-term bit of soul searching from agriculture in terms of how they're gonna deal with China being able to just turn off buying American soybeans."
  — Patrick Thomas, [14:54]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:05] — Scott Diericks' story and childhood memories on the farm
• [01:08] — China’s sudden halt of U.S. soybean purchases
• [03:01] — The dominance and importance of soybeans
• [05:06-07:21] — U.S.-China trade and why China can’t grow its own soy
• [08:07] — China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. ag
• [09:50] — Scott Diericks on looming financial losses
• [10:17-10:37] — Price collapse of soybeans
• [11:02] — Consequences for unsold, unstored soybeans
• [12:25] — The personal impact and family responsibility
• [14:12] — The likelihood and history of government bailouts
• [14:54] — Long-term questions for U.S. agriculture

Conclusion

The episode paints a vivid, personal, and systemic portrait of how a seemingly distant geopolitical trade war is reshaping the American rural landscape. Farmers like Scott Diericks are forced to reckon with short-term pain, long-term uncertainty, and their own role as pawns in global power plays. As policymakers weigh bailouts and industry leaders seek new markets, the fate of the American soybean—and the farmers who grow it—hangs in the balance.