The Government Shutdown: Who Will Blink First?

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Journal – “The Government Shutdown: Who Will Blink First?” (October 16, 2025)

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Overview

This episode, hosted by Ryan Knudsen, delves into the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now 16 days long and with no clear end in sight. Knudsen is joined by veteran Washington reporter Siobhan Hughes to unpack the shutdown’s deepening effects, the intractable standoff between Republicans and Democrats—particularly over health care funding—and what might finally force a resolution.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Shutdown’s Gravity and Unprecedented Feel

• Early Reflection: Siobhan Hughes, who has covered Washington through several shutdowns, notes, “This is much worse.” (00:29)
• The current shutdown is “about halfway to the record of 34 days,” with the White House signaling it may go even longer. (00:44)
• Both parties are “dug in,” with little pressure from the White House to resolve things quickly.

2. Real-World Impacts of the Shutdown

• Services big and small are interrupted:
  • Health Mobile Units: Key services like mobile black lung X-ray units for coal miners are shut down, causing cumulative disruptions. (01:02)
  • Delays in Public Services: “If you are trying to close on a home purchase right now and you need flood insurance… you can’t complete your home sale… Small Business Administration loan? That’s closed. …You can’t get into the museums… Can’t get the permit [for tennis].” – Siobhan Hughes (05:31)
• Federal Employee Anxiety
  • Many workers are furloughed or laid off, facing stressful financial uncertainty.
  • Back pay is in question: “In theory, there is this small potential they could not get paid, and that just adds anxiety, too.” – Hughes (07:19)

3. The Political Standoff: Health Care at the Center

• Democrats’ Position: Their main ask is to “undo all of the Medicaid cuts” and to “permanently extend the Affordable Care Act subsidies.” This extension would cost $350 billion over 10 years. (03:17, 03:44)
• Republican Resistance: Republicans see expansions of the ACA as untenable growth in government and a move toward “socialized medicine.” (04:43)
• The stalemate is intensely personal and political, with vivid memories of 2018, when health care cost Republicans the House. (04:02)

4. Federal Workforce & Targeted Layoffs

• Significant layoffs have occurred, notably in agencies President Trump opposes, such as the election security unit within DHS. (08:15)
• “It’s really a case that’s being used to pick winners and losers.” – Hughes (08:39)
• A judge has temporarily blocked further Trump administration firings during the shutdown. (08:59)
• The traditional bargain—trading higher wages for job security—is now in doubt for many federal employees.

5. Pressure Points: What Might Force a Deal

• Air Travel: Issues with air traffic controllers and delays at airports are early signs of growing public inconvenience, reminiscent of previous shutdowns. (11:10)
  • “Already we're seeing some hiccups at airports around the country…” (11:26)
  • Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem appeared in airport videos blaming Democrats for delays. (11:41–12:05)
• Military Pay: Usually a key area of pressure, but President Trump tapped unused defense funds to ensure troops were paid, temporarily easing this pain point. (12:28–13:05)
• Upcoming Paycheck Deadlines: October 24 is highlighted as the next big pressure point, when many still-working federal employees may receive no pay at all. (13:17)

6. Potential Paths to Compromise

• Most Likely Solution: Temporarily extending ACA subsidies for a year—a move with support from Democrats and rural-state Republicans—could be a breakthrough. (14:07)
• Role of Trump: Siobhan emphasizes that “a lot of people think it is only when Donald Trump truly engages on this that a deal will be unlocked.” (14:44)

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• “This is much worse.” – Siobhan Hughes (00:29)
• “It's multiple small harassments that add up into something bigger.” – Hughes, on the shutdown’s impact on everyday life (01:02)
• “We are done.” – Hughes, channeling the Democrats’ frustration over cuts to social programs (04:02)
• “You can't get into the museums… You can't have your tennis lesson as planned.” – Hughes, illustrating day-to-day effects (05:31)
• “Limbo is the exact word for it.” – Hughes, describing workers’ predicament (10:00)
• “A lot of people think it is only when Donald Trump truly engages on this that a deal will be unlocked.” – Hughes (14:44)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:29 – Siobhan Hughes on how this shutdown is different
• 01:02 – Concrete examples of the shutdown affecting Americans
• 03:17 – The centrality of health care to the standoff
• 05:31 – Broader impacts on public services and workers
• 07:19 – Anxiety about back pay for federal employees
• 08:15 – Targeted layoffs in the federal workforce
• 10:00 – Federal workers in ‘limbo’
• 11:10 – Pressure points: airport delays
• 12:28 – Military pay and shifting political calculations
• 13:17 – Looming deadline for federal employee paychecks
• 14:07 – Possible area for compromise: ACA subsidy extension
• 14:44 – Impact Trump’s engagement could have on negotiations

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Conclusion

The episode draws a picture of a deepening government shutdown marked by everyday inconveniences, political deadlock centered on health care, and an anxious federal workforce—increasingly at risk both financially and professionally. Both sides are entrenched, and with traditional pressure points shifting or being circumvented, the path forward appears to hinge on public pressure and, crucially, President Trump’s direct involvement in negotiations.

Transcript

[Ryan Knudsen]

You've been on this podcast more times than there have been government shutdowns, I.

[Siobhan Hughes]

Think, I think that's probably true because I've lived through really three big government shutdowns since I've had this beat. So I've been on for more than that.

[Ryan Knudsen]

That's our colleague Siobhan Hughes, who covers Washington. And how does this one, this one feel any different from those others?

[Siobhan Hughes]

This is much worse.

[Ryan Knudsen]

So we're 16 days into this shutdown so far, which is about halfway to the record of 34 days. Do you think we're going to surpass that record?

[Siobhan Hughes]

Well, it's important to know that the White House is certainly messaging that we are going to surpass that record. And right now, they certainly aren't putting any pressure on lawmakers to resolve this quickly.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Where are people starting to feel the pain from the shutdown?

[Siobhan Hughes]

It's not affecting every person in the country the exact same way, but it's multiple small harassments that add up into something bigger. I was talking to someone who handles coal miner health and he said that these little mobile facilities that drive around coal communities to scan for black lung, those are essentially not operational because there are no X rays being performed. And so that's not something that's going to hit the entire country, but it, it, it's an aggravation and it starts to wear.

[Ryan Knudsen]

These X rays for black lung are just one example of countless government services across the country that are unavailable right now. And there's no telling when they'll be back.

[Siobhan Hughes]

It does not seem right now like there is an end in sight.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Welcome Journal, our show about money, business and power. I'm Ryan knudsen. It's Thursday, October 16th. Coming up on the show, the government shutdown enters its third week. Foreign. For the last couple weeks, Siobhan says that D.C. has been a strange place.

[Siobhan Hughes]

It's deja vu all over again. Every single day, all of the reporters traipse up to Capitol Hill. We watch the respective leaders give press conferences in which they repeat their talking points. The Republican leaders stand up and say that it is Democrats who are blamed to the shutdown.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Democrats in the Senate are the last hurdle, the last hurdle to getting the government open again.

[Siobhan Hughes]

And then Democrats get up and say it is Republicans who are to blame.

[Ryan Knudsen]

The American people know that Republicans have shut the government down because of their unwillingness to provide health care to everyday Americans. Working class Americans. Health care, that's the big sticking point here.

[Siobhan Hughes]

Yeah. So the Democratic ask the thing that Chuck Schumer has put on the table is to undo all of the Medicaid cuts from the big, beautiful bill, to stop doing all of the cutbacks in government spending, and to permanently extend the Affordable Care act subsidies, which is very expensive.

[Ryan Knudsen]

And these are the big health care subsidies that were introduced during the pandemic.

[Siobhan Hughes]

That's right. Most of the more than 20 million people who are on the Affordable Care act get some form of government subsidy. And so that's why it costs $350 billion over 10 years, which is a lot of money.

[Ryan Knudsen]

So is it really just about health care for Democrats, or is there more to it than that?

[Siobhan Hughes]

It's much bigger for Democrats. It is. We are done with you. You have cut back the social programs we have cared about. You have that we have spent on things that we care about. You are taking out after our states, our specific states, just because you don't like our policies. And we are done. And we remember that in 2018, we flipped the House and we beat you over the issue of healthcare. And you know what? We're coming back hard on this now. We are done.

[Ryan Knudsen]

And what's the rationale right now for Republicans with the shutdown and not coming to the table sooner?

[Siobhan Hughes]

Well, they sort of feel like they have operated in good faith here, that the White House wanted to do a temporary spending bill into next year, that they had negotiated with Democrats to do something over the short term. But, you know, if you look a little bit more under the hood, Republicans have opposed the Affordable Care act since its inception in 2010. They think that it's, it's too much of an expansion of the social safety net, that you are bloating government spending, adding to debt, heading in the direction of socialized medicine. And so for them, this is just a core, core principle.

[Ryan Knudsen]

After 16 days, the government shutdown is starting to be felt around the country. Siobhan says she's seeing it firsthand.

[Siobhan Hughes]

So the big bite is coming in places that are heavily dependent on the federal government and federal contracting. I was talking to a union leader in Nevada last week who was telling me me about how 150 of his workers at the Defense Department and the Department of Energy had been thrown out of work. If you are trying to close on a home purchase right now and you need flood insurance to do that, you can't complete your home sale because flood insurance is not being issued. People, maybe small business entrepreneurs who want to start a new business, you can't get your Small Business Administration loan. That's closed. If I walk down the mall to the Smithsonian you can't get into the museums. I was talking to somebody who'd wanted to play tennis the other day to get a permit to play tennis, and she couldn't get the permit, so she couldn't have her tennis lesson as planned. You know, it's all these little things like that.

[Ryan Knudsen]

For the people that do this work, what has it meant for them? What are you hearing from federal employees who are not receiving a paycheck right now?

[Siobhan Hughes]

It's producing anxiety because there are people who are not sure they're going to be able to, for example, meet their mortgage obligations. If you're trying to buy groceries, and everybody knows that it's a lot more expensive to go grocery shopping these days, how are you going to fund that? You have to pay your credit card bill in full, but if you don't have money to do that, you're going to start to rack up interest costs. So it's not easy.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Whether federal workers will be paid back for their time on furlough remains an open question. Government employees are supposed to get back pay. That's according to a 2019 law. But the White House has signaled that back pay may not be guaranteed because.

[Siobhan Hughes]

Of the way the law is written. In theory, there is this small potential they could not get paid, and that just adds anxiety, too.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson talked about this during a recent press briefing.

[Mike Johnson]

There are some legal analysts who are saying that that may not be appropriate or necessary in terms of the law requiring that back pay be provided. So I'm sure that'll be a. There will be a lot of discussion about that. But there are legal analysts who think that that is not something that government should do.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Other government officials, including some GOP congressional leaders, have said that back pay will be owed to those federal workers. It's more than just furloughs. There's also been a lot of layoffs, especially in parts of the government that Trump disagrees with. Ever since taking office, President Trump has pushed for slimming down the government workforce, and the shutdown has been an opportunity to make even deeper cuts.

[Siobhan Hughes]

So, for example, there is an election security unit within the Department of Homeland Security, and more than 100 people there were given these layoff notices. Trump does not like that particular agency because it said the 2020 elections were the most secure in history. And that obviously went against his idea that the election was stolen. And so it's really a case that's being used to pick winners and losers.

[Unnamed Republican Official]

So we're being able to do things that we were unable to do. Before. So we're closing up programs that are Democrat programs that we wanted to close up or that we never wanted to happen. And now we're closing them up and we're not going to let them come back.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Yesterday, a judge temporarily blocked the Trump administration from moving ahead with mass firings while the government is shut down. You've worked in Washington for a long time and have talked to a lot of federal employees. Do you think that the way people feel about working for the federal government is changing right now?

[Siobhan Hughes]

Yeah, because the federal government, from the perspective of workers, obviously it's there to serve the public, but it also provides a form of job security. And you are trading away high wages for the certainty that you are going to have reliable employment with a pension at the end. And all of a sudden that stability is being called into question.

[Ryan Knudsen]

And also, I mean, for these workers, they're getting laid off, and then a judge says they can't be laid off, but then the appeals process is still going on. I mean, these workers are just have been in limbo for a significant portion of this year.

[Siobhan Hughes]

Yeah. I mean, limbo is the exact word for it. And obviously in Washington, D.C. i'm privy firsthand to what it's like. And so there are plenty of people who have made the decision to uproot their families and move back to maybe wherever they had grown up as kids. But there are also people who are flooding companies with job applications, trying to figure out if they can remain in the Washington area. But in the private sector, it is deeply unsettling after the break what it.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Might take to end the shutdown. So in prior shutdowns, there's always been like these pressure points that seem to put more pressure on Republicans and Democrats to try to make a deal. In prior ones, I think the TSA lines and airports were starting to get clogged. What are the normal pressure points and are those going to apply the same pressure this time, or are steps being taken to try to alleviate some of those initial breaking points?

[Siobhan Hughes]

So you're right, the big one was always the air traffic controllers calling in sick. The 2018, 2019 shutdown ended because it just affected air travel too much. And so, yes, that is clearly a pressure point.

[Ryan Knudsen]

That'S happening this time, too. Already we're seeing some hiccups at airports around the country. Air traffic in multiple cities now being affected by this government shutdown. Newark to Nashville, Dallas to Chicago, all among the towers and facilities now affected.

[Kristi Noem]

Thousands of flights have been delayed across the country this week as the government shutdown enters its eighth day. In fact, more than 2,500 flights were delayed just today.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Trump administration officials are hoping Democrats are the ones to take more heat from it.

[Kristi Noem]

Democrats in Congress refuse to fund the federal government.

[Ryan Knudsen]

That's the Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem, speaking in a video meant to be displayed at airports.

[Kristi Noem]

We will continue to do all that we can to avoid delays that will impact your travel. And our hope is that Democrats will soon recognize the importance of opening the government.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Another pressure point has been coming from the military. In previous shutdowns, lawmakers have made sure that troops get their paychecks, even if other government employees don't.

[Siobhan Hughes]

The military always gets paid. It has not been since the 19th century that the military did not get paid. What Republicans had been counting on was that the military would go unpaid on October 15, and they thought that would present such enormous pressure for Democrats that Democrats would cave in and simply agree to temporarily reopen the government. But the president obviously removed that pressure point when he found a pot of money to be used to at least make sure the military was paid on October 15th. So that was taken off the table.

[Ryan Knudsen]

To get troops paid, Trump is tapping into $8 billion of unspent defense Department funds that was meant for research and development, according to the White House Office of Management and Budget. But there are more pressure points coming.

[Siobhan Hughes]

The next big one will likely be October 24, which is when many federal workers who are still working will come home with no paycheck. They simply will not get paid for the work that they have been doing. And, you know, you had one partial paycheck, then you have no paycheck. At some point, that starts to add up.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Which side do you think is most likely to blink first?

[Siobhan Hughes]

Honestly, I just cannot tell because both sides are so dug in. And I do think it is going to depend on the public. At some point, some segment of the population is going to be so upset with what's happening in their lives that they will rise up and say, that's it, we're done. You've just got to vote to reopen the government.

[Ryan Knudsen]

What do you think is the most likely area of compromise?

[Siobhan Hughes]

The most likely area of compromise is to extend the Affordable Care act subsidies for a year. And the reason for that is all of the Democrats want it, plus a contingent of Republicans wants that extension, too. And that's because the Affordable Care act subsidies flow to a lot of Republican constituencies. You know, people in rural areas, farmers, small business owners. So it's clear there's a deal here to be had.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Trump has signaled in recent days that he may be open to extending the subsidies for health insurance. Democrats are hoping that he'll force Republicans to vote for an extension.

[Siobhan Hughes]

Donald Trump is essentially functioning as the House whip. Typically, that is a role that belongs to Congress. But he is the person who gets Republicans in line, line makes them vote yes on something, even if it's something they're not in favor of. And that that's why he is the key to the path forward. And the big point I want to make here is that a lot of people think it is only when Donald Trump truly engages on this that a deal will be unlocked.

[Ryan Knudsen]

That's all for today. Thursday, October 16 the Journal is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. Additional reporting in this episode by Teo Francis, Ken Thomas and Katie Stetsfarik. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.