The Journal. — "The Tech CEO Leading Nvidia's Main Rival"

Date: December 9, 2025
Hosts: Ryan Knudsen, Jessica Mendoza
Guests: Robby Whelan (WSJ Tech Reporter), Lisa Su (CEO of AMD)

Overview

This episode dives into the battle for dominance in the AI chip market, spotlighting Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and its CEO, Lisa Su. While Nvidia currently maintains a commanding lead in advanced AI chips, AMD—under Su's bold leadership—has not only closed the gap significantly but made strategic moves to position itself as Nvidia’s main rival. The hosts and Robby Whelan explore Lisa Su’s journey, pivotal decisions, and their most recent $10B deal with OpenAI, examining what this means for the AI industry, concerns of an AI bubble, and AMD’s future ambitions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Nvidia’s Dominance and AMD’s Underdog Status

• Nvidia controls 90%+ of advanced AI chip market.
  "Most people think that Nvidia controls 90% or more of the advanced AI chip market." — Robby Whelan [00:20]
• AMD is the David to Nvidia's Goliath. "The CEO of AMD, a woman named Lisa Su, she has a really good track record of slaying giants… but she's never met an opponent like Nvidia." — Robby Whelan [01:19]
• Industry concentration described as almost unprecedented. "I can't think of another industry where there's such a market concentration..." — Robby Whelan [00:32]

2. Lisa Su’s Background and Early Leadership

• Lisa Su’s roots in engineering and device physics.
  "She's an engineer who has a PhD in electrical engineering from MIT… She understands how a piece of silicon inscribed with transistors translates into the computing power that appears on your screen..." — Robby Whelan [04:19]
• Taking over AMD when it was worth less than $3B and transforming its product strategy.
• Pivot to data center chips—outmaneuvering Intel in critical server markets.
  "She looked at the product line... 'We're not focusing on the right things. We need to be focused on accelerated advanced computing because that's what our customers want.'" — Robby Whelan [05:17]
• AMD’s radical strategic overhaul put it ahead in cloud computing and positioned it well for the AI surge.

3. The AI Pivot: Betting the Company’s Future

• Post-ChatGPT launch, Lisa Su’s “epiphany”: AMD will pivot entirely to AI.
  "'I'm going to pivot the entire company... Artificial intelligence is rising. It's a once in a lifetime opportunity… We're going to revamp our entire product line... This was a major turning point.'" — Robby Whelan [06:28]
• First direct competition with Nvidia via AMD's Instinct GPUs for AI.
• Early struggles acknowledged—AMD's initial products weren’t as powerful or easy to use as Nvidia’s, but they gained a foothold.

4. Choosing Inferencing over Training — Strategic Focus

• AMD targets “inferencing” chips, one step ahead of current market dogma.
  "Rather than making chips that are good at training AI models... Sue wanted to make chips that were good at inferencing." — Ryan Knudsen [08:41]
• Explanation: Training is the “learning” step for AI models; inferencing is the “doing”—real-time responses to user inputs.
  "Inference is when you or I sit down and say, 'Hey ChatGPT, what should I eat for lunch today?' ...that's inference." — Robby Whelan [08:58]

5. The AMD–OpenAI Megadeal

• OpenAI agrees to a massive chip purchase—potential stake of up to 10% in AMD.
• AMD stock surges 30% on the announcement:
  "Everyone was so excited because... OpenAI not jumping ship entirely from Nvidia, but saying, look, AMD is just as good for us to operate our models." — Robby Whelan [10:31]
• Circular financing triggers speculation of a tech bubble.
  "This is an example of what people have recently started describing as circular funding or circular financing." — Robby Whelan [13:57]
  • OpenAI could buy AMD shares at $0.01 if it meets product deployment milestones; i.e., incentives are tightly linked.

6. Lisa Su on Circular Financing and AI Bubble Concerns

• Deal alignment explained:
  "We structured this deal so that there was complete alignment of incentives...if OpenAI is successful, AMD is successful...and the opposite is also true." — Lisa Su [14:45]
• Partnership value over pure transactions:
  "You’re probably undervaluing the importance of the partnership...we are deeply developing the future of AI, and that's highly valuable." — Lisa Su [16:15]
• Su is unphased by potential AI bubble talk, emphasizing insatiable demand:
  "We should see this kind of investment because this technology does have so much potential and we are barely scratching the surface...Frankly, what I'm seeing is the people who are being rewarded are those who are willing to take big, bold bets. And this is not the time to stay on the sidelines and worry... It's much more dangerous if you underinvest than if you over invest, in my opinion." — Lisa Su [17:05]

7. What's at Stake: The Broader AI Chip Race

• Chip industry is seeing new entrants:
  "Other chip makers like Broadcom and Qualcomm have also emerged as competitors...Google is selling access to data center chips...Amazon has started selling chips it says are faster and more energy efficient than Nvidia's." — Ryan Knudsen [19:56]
• Nvidia claims it’s "a generation ahead" but welcomes competition.
  "Nvidia has signaled that it welcomes competitors. It also said on X that it was, quote, a generation ahead of the industry." — Ryan Knudsen [19:46]

8. Can AMD Overtake Nvidia?

• Catching up fully is unlikely, but market is expanding rapidly:
  "I think that's very unlikely. I think that Nvidia's lead is so significant." — Robby Whelan [20:56]
• AMD–OpenAI deal includes a provision: OpenAI only gets the full 10% stake if AMD’s market cap hits $1 trillion.
  • "...she wrote this deal with OpenAI in a way that incentivizes the company to become a trillion dollar company." — Robby Whelan [21:02]
• Idea: "Rising tide lifts all boats"; huge, growing demand for chips enables multiple dominant players.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On AI’s transformative power:
  "The role of AMD is to enable all of that with the foundational computing." — Lisa Su [02:19]
• On bold leadership:
  "We're betting the whole company on it." — Robby Whelan [07:37]
• On the partnership, not just the transaction:
  "It's one where we are, you know, deeply developing the future of AI, and that's highly valuable." — Lisa Su [16:15]
• On risk tolerance and the AI opportunity:
  "It's much more dangerous if you underinvest than if you over invest, in my opinion." — Lisa Su [17:05]
• On the real AI market battleground:
  "Inference is where the payoff is. It's actually where the money is..." — Lisa Su [18:55]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:15–01:19 – Nvidia’s dominance and AMD’s underdog role
• 04:12–05:49 – Lisa Su’s background and AMD’s initial pivot
• 06:28–07:39 – Decision to bet AMD's future on AI
• 08:41–09:53 – AMD’s focus on inferencing vs. training chips
• 10:04–10:31 – OpenAI–AMD megadeal and its market impact
• 13:04–17:05 – The Lisa Su interview: circular financing, AI bubble, and strategic partnership rationale
• 18:55–19:34 – Why inferencing is the key AI market battleground
• 20:25–21:48 – Will AMD catch Nvidia? Incentives and the trillion-dollar ambition

Conclusion

The episode paints a vivid picture of seismic shifts underway in AI hardware—dominated (for now) by Nvidia, but with AMD, led by Lisa Su’s bold vision and risk-taking, carving out a formidable challenger path. Key industry questions remain about the sustainability of the AI boom, the wisdom (or risk) of circular financing, and whether the market is truly big enough—or overheated. Su’s central argument: betting big on a boundless future of AI isn’t just smart, it’s necessary—and AMD intends to play a central role.

For listeners, this episode delivers crucial context on how the AI computing landscape is evolving, the high-stakes nature of the AMD–OpenAI partnership, and the personalities driving this pivotal business rivalry.