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- [00:07]
Ryan Knudson
Where should we start today, Molly?
- [00:08]
Molly Ball
Why don't we just pick a place at random, say Ukraine.
- [00:12]
Ryan Knudson
You know, you just spun the globe, put your finger on. It just so happened to be the place where all the news is right now. Because this week diplomats from the US And Russia met to negotiate on the future of the war in Ukraine, which was something that the Biden administration was not willing to do without Ukraine at the table. But the Trump administration is willing to do without Ukraine at the table, which marks a pretty big shift in how the US Deals with Russia.
- [00:38]
Molly Ball
It's a very big shift. I think it's too soon to say exactly what the results of this will be, but at least rhetorically, it is a massive shift in the way America talks about our position in the world and our alliances.
- [00:55]
Ryan Knudson
Should anyone be surprised about this based on the way Trump talked about Ukraine and the rest of the world during the campaign?
- [01:03]
Molly Ball
Yes and no. Like so many things Trump does, it is shocking, but not surprising.
- [01:07]
Ryan Knudson
A lot to talk about today, as always. From the Journal, this is Trump 2.0. I'm Ryan Knudsen.
- [01:17]
Molly Ball
And I'm Molly Ball.
- [01:19]
Ryan Knudson
It's Friday, February 21st. Coming up, President Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine. So how is he going to do it? And what will that mean for the rest of Europe?
- [01:42]
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- [02:19]
Ryan Knudson
All right, so we spent the last few weeks talking mostly about President Trump's efforts to cut the federal government. We've been talking about Elon Musk and Doge and usaid. But now the focus has really shifted overseas to Ukraine. So to help us understand this shift in what's been going on with Ukraine, we brought in our colleague Alex Ward, who covers national security. Hi, Alex.
- [02:41]
Molly Ball
Hey, how are you? Hey, Alex.
- [02:43]
Ryan Knudson
So, Alex, how would you describe how the US Government's position is changing on Russia and Ukraine under the Trump administration?
- [02:50]
Alex Ward
The Biden administration's whole view was the US Provides Ukraine support militarily, economically, and will only consider negotiations when the Ukrainians are ready. The Trump administration has a very different view. Their view is now is the time to have negotiations because Ukraine can't win, which is a fair argument to make. But the question now is, as the negotiations come go, is, does Putin actually want to negotiate? Will the Ukrainians agree to whatever might be on the table, and will the US Just cut a deal that in theory stops the fighting and call it as a win, but leaving the wounds to fester in Eastern Europe?
- [03:28]
Ryan Knudson
So regardless of whether Ukraine wants these negotiations or not, these negotiations are now taking place between the US and the Russians. There was a meeting this week in Saudi Arabia as these negotiations get underway. What's the Trump administration's position compared to the Biden administration's?
- [03:47]
Alex Ward
I mean, actually, in some ways, if you think about it, the position is quite similar, right? I mean, the Biden administration didn't want Ukraine and NATO. Trump doesn't want Ukraine and NATO. The Biden administration didn't think Ukraine could necessarily win the war. The Trump administration doesn't think Ukraine can win the war. And the Biden administration thought this war would end with a negotiated settlement. And the Trump administration believes it's going to end with a negotiated settlement. So there actually isn't a massive difference. The big one, and this is a big one, is that the Biden administration said no deal with about Ukraine. Without Ukraine, there will only be negotiations when the Ukrainians say they are ready. And Trump is clearly saying the opposite. Right. We're going to start these talks now whether Ukraine wants to or not. And there are talks literally happening without Ukraine. So that's a big shift. But in terms of the grand architecture, there's actually a lot more similarity than differences between Biden and Trump.
- [04:35]
Ryan Knudson
There is another big shift, though, which is in the way Trump is talking about this conflict and specifically, specifically the way he's talking about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. After Trump's phone call with Putin, Trump said that Zelenskyy was a dictator. He said there should be new elections in Ukraine, and he accused Ukraine of starting the war. What do you make of that?
- [04:57]
Alex Ward
I mean, it's certainly shocking, right? I mean, we have known that Trump tends to occasionally listen to parrot Kremlin talking points, and he was on a long phone call with Vladimir Putin. So it's very possible that a lot of this literally came from that conversation. But, I mean, this was quite the escalation, and it is certainly the harshest comments by any US Official. And of course, it's coming from the president since the all out invasion began three years ago.
- [05:20]
Molly Ball
Along those lines, Alex, I understand there's a lot of outrage about the administration's rhetoric, particularly toward Zelensky, but is there any chance that this could be an effective strategy, that it could actually be effective in changing the dynamic, potentially even making peace more possible?
- [05:39]
Alex Ward
I mean, yeah, right. One of the critiques of the Biden team was, hey, you guys are saying this is going to be a negotiated settlement and you're not negotiating, so maybe there should be at least some back channel or some clear effort even if it doesn't work, even if it takes a long time, like be caught trying to end the war in a peaceful way that might actually give Ukraine an advantage. Now Trump is basically doing what the critics said, right? Start the negotiation, see what is in the realm of the possible. The problem here is that there is no clear indication that Putin wants to deal for real, and there's no clear indication that Trump is willing to stick out this negotiation until Ukraine kind of comes out more on top than not in what the final outcome will be.
- [06:22]
Ryan Knudson
It seems like President Trump is pushing for the war to end, but he's doing a lot of the pushing against Ukraine, and he wants the war to end. Even if that means giving in to Russia on some of its demands.
- [06:34]
Alex Ward
Yeah, if the war ended right now, then Russia will have effectively taken 20% of Ukraine's territory and there will be no security guarantees of, you know, what could happen in the future, say, if Russia rearms, which European intelligence indicates could happen in about five years. And the overlying question to all of this is, does Trump desire, you know, what does he desire more, a really good outcome in the negotiations in the war, or some sort of mega or some sort of deal where the US And Russia can become friends? Again, my instinct, and so far it seems he cares more about the US Russia relationship improving than he does about a good quote, unquote, outcome in the Ukraine war. And those two are quite literally like fighting in parallel.
- [07:18]
Ryan Knudson
Molly, could this strategy cost Trump politically in any way? If the Trump administration resolves this conflict by giving in to some or many of Russia's demands?
- [07:29]
Molly Ball
Yeah, I think there is a possibility that this doesn't go over well politically. We have seen that majorities of Americans consistently do see the Ukrainians as the good guys in this conflict, and depending on how you ask the question, do support the US Taking the side of Ukraine. Now, that doesn't mean that people have unlimited patience for continuing to send money and aid or that people would favor sending American troops to aid the Ukrainians. But, you know, the last time I saw a poll that asked people's approval of Vladimir Putin in the United States, it was something like 8%.
- [08:10]
Ryan Knudson
Not a popular guy.
- [08:11]
Molly Ball
Putin is, is not a popular figure in the U.S. even among Republicans and Trump supporters.
- [08:19]
Ryan Knudson
Let's talk about how Europe is responding to all this. Alex, last week you attended the Munich Security Conference in Germany is this major annual convention of European security experts. And Vice President J.D. vance gave this big speech that seemed to reframe America's relationship with Europe.
- [08:38]
J.D. Vance
The threat that I worry the most about vis a vis Europe is not Russia, it's not China, it's not any other external actor. And what I worry about is the threat from within, the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States of America.
- [08:58]
Molly Ball
There's so much buzz in Washington about this speech, and it seems like something that is likely to sort of go down in history and be remembered, which is pretty rare for anything a vice president says. Do you think the speech was that important? And what did you think of it?
- [09:12]
Alex Ward
Well, a little bit of backstory. So we interviewed JD Vance in Paris a couple days, the day before the speech, excuse me, in which we were given a copy and we read it and we were able to ask him questions about it. And it was very clear that he went in with the intention to shock and with the intention to basically send a signal of, hey, Europe, you know, the biggest issue we have right now is we, the United States, provide you a lot of security. And you Europeans are basically like, letting illegal immigrants in and censoring right wing speech. And that doesn't feel like a fair trade.
- [09:44]
J.D. Vance
Europe faces many challenges, but the crisis this continent faces right now, the crisis I believe we all face together, is one of our own making. If you're running in fear of your own voters, there is nothing America can do for you. Nor, for that matter, is there anything that you can do for the American people who elected me and elected President Trump.
- [10:09]
Alex Ward
Usually that speech in Munich is just like, you know, yes, the US And Europe agree to work together and, you know, we wish you'd spend more, but otherwise we'll be fine and we'll find some solution in UK like, it was a purposeful decision not to do that and to be in the room. You know, I was expecting the bombshell and I was trying to tell people, like, you need to be ready for what's to come. And people in the room were not ready and you had, like, German ministers screaming, no, you had, by the end of the conference, one of the Munich security leaders cry and walk off stage.
- [10:38]
Unnamed Speaker
This order is easy to disrupt, it's easy to destroy, but it's much harder to rebuild. So let us stick to these values. Let us not reinvent them, but focus on strengthening their consistent application. Let me conclude. And this becomes difficult.
- [11:00]
Alex Ward
I mean, this was a massive signal to Europe that, like, the US Is not who you thought it was. It's not your friend anymore. All the evidence Europeans have is the US Is not the friend of Europe that it used to be and is far more antagonistic than it used to be. And so I think this conference, which was supposed to kind of be about, you know, where to from here on Ukraine ended up becoming something broader about where to from here for the transatlantic alliance writ large.
- [11:29]
Ryan Knudson
Where does Europe go from here? What options does it have?
- [11:32]
Alex Ward
I mean, I think the loudest voices are those who are freaked out, right? Hey, maybe the US Isn't a reliable ally anymore. You know, they might be selling Ukraine up a river here. This is a problem. And now we in Europe need to actually, like, start reorienting our foreign policy in a way or away from the United States. We relied on the US Security for. For so much we spent on a bunch of other things, you know, like social welfare programs, etc. And we've let our militaries decay. And now we're in this moment where the US has been warning us to spend more. And now, you know, effectively, this is shock therapy. That would be the Trump administration's argument. And there are a lot of Americans that would sort of agree with it. And then, frankly, there are now Europeans who are like, this is a bit on us.
- [12:14]
Ryan Knudson
So, Alex, how would you describe what the New World Order is then under Trump and Trump's worldview?
- [12:21]
Alex Ward
I mean, it's hard. It's hard to know we're only a month in. But I think it's very clear that the United States are no longer, as of this moment, following the tenets of that Post World War II order, right, where it's now, tariffs are good. You know, we don't necessarily have to support a democracy. Allies are not necessarily allies. They're takers, not. Not sort of force multipliers. This is a wholesale change in the way the US has sort of done business. And so, you know, if this were to continue, right, politics aren't linear. Things can change. But if this were to continue, the US Will be a wildly different global actor. And that not only just changes the way the US does things, but also changes how our allies negotiate, our allies act and our adversaries act. And it leads to a whole different order. And what's fascinating here is like basically for the last 70 or so years, you sort of knew that one of the variables in the world, the United States was a constant. Right. Everything else moved around it. Now one of the major variables in world politics is how the US Is going to act.
- [13:25]
Ryan Knudson
Molly, how long do you think this shift will last or will it just change again if a Democrat wins the White House in 2028?
- [13:32]
Molly Ball
The argument that I've been hearing is that it is de facto permanent because no matter what happens next, people's sort of faith in the US has been shattered that having now elected Trump twice, it doesn't matter if the next American presidents are staunch internationalists because they just can't trust us not to do something like elect a Trump who has opposite views. Right. Like as you were alluding to, there was this idea that sort of politics stops at the water's edge. But we now see sort of definitively that there's a new Republican Party that doesn't believe that and that is poised to be the either ruling or opposition party in the US for the next generation.
- [14:17]
Ryan Knudson
All right, we're going to take a quick break and when we come back, we'll talk some more with Alex about Russia and the deeper meaning behind Trump's Long live the King Post. So stick around.
- [14:37]
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- [15:12]
Ryan Knudson
All right, Molly, Alex, as you know, we love listener questions on this show. And we've got one from William Green in Brooklyn that happens to be about Russia.
- [15:21]
William Green
When President Trump talks about geopolitics, he often talks about it in 19th and early 20th century terms in terms of great powers and spheres of influence. And this is most obvious in his dealings with Vladimir Putin. In light of that and in light of his recent controversial remarks on Ukraine, my question is, does Trump think it was a mistake to push for the collapse of the Soviet Union and would he welcome an attempt by President Putin to reclaim it. Thank you.
- [15:51]
Molly Ball
Thanks for the question, William. It's a really interesting one, I will say. I don't know if I've ever heard Trump utter the words spheres of influence. Right. But I do think there's an interesting point to be made here about sort of the tension between isolationism and nationalism. Right. Because you have Trump saying that America first means America looks out for its own interest. Other countries are free to do the same. But inevitably it comes into tension. Right. When America has interests in these other places, but they are pursuing single mindedly their own self interests. So if you retreat from the world and say, no, no, we're only about America first now you don't get to say what Russia does in Europe, you've sort of forfeited your part of that argument.
- [16:37]
Alex Ward
Oh, I have so many thoughts on this.
- [16:38]
Ryan Knudson
Okay, I'd love to hear them.
- [16:40]
Alex Ward
Okay, first of all, in Trump 1.0, I thought what was fascinating is their main sort of theory of the case was, hey, sovereignty, every country gets to do what it wants. I'm sort of going off of Molly's point here. Now it's very different, Right. Vance goes into, into Germany and says, hey, Germans do this, do this, meaning.
- [16:58]
Ryan Knudson
Crack down on immigration, stop policing speech online as, as Vance was alluding to in Munich.
- [17:03]
Alex Ward
Yeah, that's right. Now it's very much listen to what us, the United States wants. But it's kind of a more maga, like they're trying to make, remake the world in the MAGA image, which is anathema to the sovereignty idea. So that's 1, 2 there. To be fair to the Trump administration, there is like a sort of grand strategic idea to the working with Russia here and that is to pull it away from China. Right. One of the things that they fault the Biden administration for doing was by, by defending Ukraine so much and by hitting Russia so hard that it effectively forced Russia into China's hands. And so by sort of appealing to Russia and offering its incentives to improve relations with the US it might actually pull Russia away from China.
- [17:39]
Ryan Knudson
All right, Alex, thanks so much for your time.
- [17:41]
Alex Ward
Yeah, thanks for having me. Sorry I talk so much.
- [17:44]
Molly Ball
Thanks, Alex.
- [17:45]
Ryan Knudson
All right, Molly, before I let you go, I've got one more question. On Wednesday, Trump posted on his media platform Truth Social, long live the King, referring to himself. This was alongside an announcement that he's going to revoke a Biden era approval of congestion pricing in New York City. And then the White House posted an image of Trump wearing a crown that said the Same thing. Long live the king. Do you think that Trump is just trolling, or is this a reflection of how he actually sees himself?
- [18:16]
Molly Ball
Yes.
- [18:17]
Ryan Knudson
Yes to both.
- [18:18]
Molly Ball
I think the answer is yes to both, and it's nothing new. And I think there's also a third option to which the answer is also yes. And that option is. Or is this about the expansion of executive power in a way that many, particularly Republicans, have sought for many years? And the answer to that is also yes.
- [18:39]
Ryan Knudson
And then there's also this post that he made on social media where he said, he who saves his country does not violate any law, which seems to be sort of part of the same theme.
- [18:48]
Molly Ball
Right. This idea that he sees himself as having sort of imperial, unrestricted power. Look, there has always been this group of Republican legal scholars who believed that the president embodied the executive branch and ought to have vastly more power than he currently holds in the way the sort of customs and norms of our constitutional system. Trump just seems to want to do stuff and not think that anyone should be able to stop him.
- [19:20]
Ryan Knudson
We also seem to be making this argument that, like some of these laws that he is accused of flouting specifically, I'm thinking of shutting down government agencies without congressional approval, are that the laws themselves are anti American or they're part of the problem. And so he is the solution coming in and sort of getting rid of them or saying like, these shouldn't apply to me.
- [19:42]
Molly Ball
Right. And I think, you know, there's a really interesting and nuanced discussion to be had here about executive power, even if that is not necessarily the discussion that Trump himself is participating in. Right. I think a lot of Americans have been frustrated for many years with the gridlock and polarization that have turned Congress into basically a non functioning body and have made it impossible for governments to actually implement the things that candidates campaign on. Right. So you have a campaign where one candidate's like, we're going to do health care, and the other candidate's like, we're going to reform entitlements. And then no matter who it is that gets into office, they just can't do anything because of what a political scientist would call all of the veto points built into our system of governance and the way that a lot of what started out as relatively straightforward checks and balances have been choked over the years with, you know, different bureaucratic requirements and institutions and personnel and so forth. So I'm not trying to whitewash the arguably authoritarian impulses that Trump is flamboyantly displaying, but that doesn't mean that he doesn't have a point about the ways in which our system has made it hard for presidents to actually do the things that they promised to do and.
- [21:07]
Ryan Knudson
That voters are voting for them to do.
- [21:10]
Molly Ball
And this is the argument of a lot of the Trump allies who say this isn't contradictory to democracy. This is democracy in action. People voted for Trump. They want him to do the things that he said he was going to do. And if the system is set up in such a way as to make it impossible for him to do those things, he is actually being Democrat, small d Democratic, pursuing the will of the people by seeking ways to do those things.
- [21:38]
Ryan Knudson
Well, thanks so much for your time, Molly. Really appreciate it.
- [21:40]
Molly Ball
Thanks, Ryan. Another fun one and we'll see you in a week. See you then.
- [21:46]
Ryan Knudson
Before we go, do you have any questions about what the Trump administration is doing? Email us and let us know. Please send a voice Note to thejournalsj.com that's thejournalsj.com Trump 2.0 is part of the Journal, which is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. This episode was produced by Enrique Perez de la Rosa and edited by Katherine Whelan with help from Piers Singhe. Molly Ball is the Wall Street Journal's senior political correspondent. I'm Ryan Knudson. This episode was engineered by Griffin Tanner. Our theme music is by so Wiley and remixed by Peter Leonard. Additional music in this episode by Katherine Anderson and Emma Munger. Fact checking by Kate Gallagher. Artwork by James Walton. Trump 2.0 will be back with a new episode next Friday morning. See you then.