Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Journal – "Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy"

Episode Information:

• Title: Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy
• Release Date: March 14, 2025
• Hosts: Ryan Knutson, Molly Ball
• Guest: Nick Timoros, Economic Reporter

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1. Introduction to Trump's Economic Performance

The episode kicks off with Ryan Knutson and Molly Ball discussing President Trump's first 50 days in office, comparing his actions to the typical first 100 days of previous presidents.

• Ryan Knutson [00:15]: "Has he set a new land speed record?"
• Molly Ball [00:24]: "There's no question that this has been an action-packed and eventful first 50 days of the Trump presidency. He has signed a record number of executive orders... creating the impression of action, creating the impression of disruption so that people feel like he's doing stuff."

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2. The Economy: Expectations vs. Reality

The hosts delve into the centrality of the economy in Trump's campaign and how current economic indicators are diverging from voter expectations.

• Molly Ball [01:25]: "In exit polls, voters said that the number one issue for the plurality of voters was the economy, specifically prices."

Despite Trump's strong messaging on economic prowess, real-time indicators like the stock market and business forecasts are signaling unease.

• Molly Ball [02:01]: "It seems like... the stock market's going down, various economic indicators are wobbly, and people are nervous."

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3. Expert Insight: Understanding the Current Economy

Nick Timoros joins the discussion to provide a nuanced analysis of the current economic landscape, highlighting both positive indicators and emerging uncertainties.

• Nick Timoros [04:15]: "The economy's doing pretty well, not perfect, but we've had inflation come down over the last two years."

However, policy uncertainties—such as immigration changes, trade policies, and federal spending cuts—are introducing volatility.

• Nick Timoros [04:15]: "We're running a lot of policy experiments at once here and that's not great for certainty and confidence."

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4. Stock Market Reactions and Recession Fears

The conversation shifts to the recent downturn in the stock market and the increasing chatter about a potential recession.

• Ryan Knutson [05:04]: "The s and P500 closed in correction territory yesterday, meaning it's down more than 10% from its recent high."

President Trump himself acknowledged the possibility of a recession in an interview, a rare admission.

• Molly Ball [09:28]: "It's pretty remarkable... a president who's basically admitting, like, yes, I am causing you to have some unpleasantness..."

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5. Business Community's Response

The hosts explore how business leaders are reacting to Trump's economic policies, revealing a mix of public optimism and private concern.

• Molly Ball [11:08]: "Privately, I was struck by the level of pessimism. A lot of these CEOs... are feeling very concerned and alarmed by where this is headed."

Nick Timoros adds that the primary business frustration lies in the unpredictability of policy changes rather than the policies themselves.

• Nick Timoros [12:16]: "What they don't like is that what's announced at 9am May be different from what policy is at 1pm... They want certainty."

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6. The Federal Reserve's Predicament

Nick Timoros elucidates the Federal Reserve's challenging position amid conflicting economic pressures—balancing inflation control with potential recession risks.

• Nick Timoros [08:09]: "The Fed... has to choose... is it going to cushion the hit to demand by lowering interest rates... or prevent a bigger increase in prices by keeping interest rates higher."

This dichotomy presents a "lose, lose" scenario for the Fed, complicating their policy decisions.

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7. Public Perception and Polling

Public sentiment is shifting, with a CNN poll revealing a majority disapproves of Trump's handling of the economy for the first time.

• Molly Ball [10:41]: "A poll out this week from CNN that found that 56% of the public now disapproves of his handling of the economy."

This marks a significant shift in Trump's economic narrative and raises questions about his influence over public opinion.

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8. Debate on Government Spending and Inflation

Listener question from Charles Park addresses the complex relationship between government spending cuts and inflation.

• Nick Timoros [14:00]: "Cutting spending reduces demand. That can help in an overheated economy... The tariffs are more complicated because... if it begins to get bigger or it's spread out over a longer period of time, then it's harder to tell."

This highlights the delicate balance policymakers must maintain to navigate inflation without triggering economic downturns.

---

9. Legal Controversies: Arrest of a Columbia Student

The episode transitions to a legal case involving Mahmoud Khalil, a Columbia student involved in pro-Palestine protests, whose green card is being revoked.

• Molly Ball [17:29]: "They have said that they are revoking his green card because he led these protests essentially... the administration has invoked this sort of obscure statute that says that someone's permission to be in the country can be revoked or suspended if they interfere with American foreign policy."

A judge has partially blocked the administration's action, but the case remains contentious and unresolved.

---

10. Department of Education Cuts

Trump administration moves to significantly reduce the Department of Education's staff and potentially dismantle the agency through an executive order.

• Molly Ball [19:23]: "It's essentially a states rights argument... education is primarily a local affair."

The proposed changes aim to shift federal education functions to state and local levels, though essential services like civil rights enforcement and funding for disadvantaged students would need to continue under different auspices.

---

11. Government Shutdown Negotiations

The episode concludes with an analysis of the recent government shutdown negotiations, where Democrats yielded to support a Republican bill to prevent a shutdown.

• Molly Ball [21:57]: "Democrats found a way to get themselves to a point where they would agree to this deal to keep the government open."

This move reflects a strategic decision by Democrats to avoid the political fallout of a shutdown, despite internal pressures and previous demands for concessions.

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Conclusion

"Trump 2.0: The Uncertainty Economy" offers a comprehensive examination of President Trump's early economic policies and their multifaceted impacts. Through insightful discussions with economic reporter Nick Timoros and host perspectives from Ryan Knutson and Molly Ball, the episode navigates the complexities of policy actions, market reactions, business community sentiments, and broader societal implications. Notably, Trump's acknowledgment of potential economic pain marks a departure from his usual optimistic messaging, signaling a period of significant uncertainty in the U.S. economy.

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Notable Quotes:

• Molly Ball [00:24]: "President Trump... creating the impression of action, creating the impression of disruption so that people feel like he's doing stuff."

• Nick Timoros [04:15]: "We're running a lot of policy experiments at once here and that's not great for certainty and confidence."

• Molly Ball [09:28]: "It's pretty unusual to be seeing in politics, a president who's basically admitting... I'm doing that on purpose because I'm trying to achieve something bigger."

• Nick Timoros [12:16]: "They want certainty. They want to know what the outlook is going to be."

• Molly Ball [17:29]: "The administration has invoked this sort of obscure statute that says that someone's permission to be in the country can be revoked or suspended if they interfere with American foreign policy."

---

This episode provides valuable insights into the intersection of political strategy, economic policy, and their tangible effects on both the market and the populace, making it essential listening for those seeking to understand the current economic climate under the Trump administration.

Transcript

[Ryan Knudson]

All right, Molly, we have made it past the halfway point.

[Molly Ball]

That's right. We hit a big milestone this week. In the first 100 days, we have passed day 50.

[Ryan Knudson]

How much has Trump accomplished in his first 50 days compared to how much most presidents accomplish in the first 100? Has he set a new land speed record?

[Molly Ball]

Look, there's no question that this has been an action packed and eventful first 50 days of the Trump presidency. Presidency. He has signed a record number of executive orders. At the same time, he has not passed a lot of legislation. And especially considering that he does have majorities in the House and Senate, the legislative agenda is strikingly modest. But one of the things he's very good at is creating the impression of action, creating the impression of disruption so that people feel like he's doing stuff. And that's a big. I think part of the Trump political profile is just this idea that he's a strong leader, he's a man of action.

[Ryan Knudson]

Well, all of this action is starting to create a reaction in the stock market and the broader economy, which is the main thing that I wanted to talk about today. But first of all, can you just remind us how important was the economy to Trump's presidential campaign and ultimate reelection?

[Molly Ball]

In exit polls, voters said that the number one issue for the plurality of voters was the economy, specifically prices. And they rated Trump much better on that issue than his opponent, Kamala Harris. And I think in a bigger sense, the economy has always been central to Trump's political brand. He's seen as a businessman, he's seen as someone who has a command of the economy. And when voters look back on his first term, the principal thing that they remember is that the economy was good.

[Ryan Knudson]

And so far, is this the economy that voters were expecting?

[Molly Ball]

Doesn't seem like it. It seems like, you know, the stock market's going down, various economic indicators are wobbly, and people are nervous.

[Ryan Knudson]

From the Journal, this is Trump 2.0. I'm Ryan Knudsen.

[Molly Ball]

And I'm Molly Ball.

[Nick Timoros]

And I'm.

[Ryan Knudson]

It's Friday, March 14th. Coming up, Trump was supposed to be great for the economy. So why is the economy looking so scared? Plus, a Columbia student gets arrested and the Democrats dilemma over a government shutdown. Stay with us.

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[Ryan Knudson]

All right, so we are going to talk about the economy today. And to help us understand what is happening in the economy, we've brought in one of the best economic reporters out there, our colleague Nick Timoros who covers the Federal Reserve. Hi Nick.

[Molly Ball]

Hi, Nick.

[Nick Timoros]

Hey, Ryan. Hey, Molly.

[Ryan Knudson]

Thanks for being here.

[Nick Timoros]

Thanks for having me.

[Molly Ball]

So, Nick, what is happening in the economy right now?

[Nick Timoros]

Well, I think there's kind of two ways to look at this. You can look at the economy just with all the backwards looking data that economists look at and you would say economy's doing pretty well, not perfect, but we've had inflation come down over the last two years. The unemployment rate is low. People have jobs, they're spending money. Economic performance is pretty good. You look at what's coming from all of the policy uncertainty. You have immigration changes, obviously, big changes on trade policy with these federal spending cuts and layoffs at Doge, and you say, wow, we're running a lot of policy experiments at once here and that's not great for certainty and confidence. And who knows how this is going to go?

[Ryan Knudson]

Well, if you look at the stock market and listen to what businesses are signaling right now, it would seem that a lot of people are afraid that it is not going to go well because the s and P500 closed in correction territory yesterday, meaning it's down more than 10% from its recent high. Companies are projecting weaker sales, and you're hearing lots more talk about a recession. And even President Trump in an interview on Sunday wouldn't rule out that a recession was possible.

[Nick Timoros]

Are you expecting a recession this year?

[Ryan Knudson]

I hate to predict things like that.

[Molly Ball]

There is a period of transition because.

[Ryan Knudson]

What we're doing is very big. Can you lay out as best as you can what Trump is trying to achieve with all these policy experiments and what is he trying to transition America toward?

[Nick Timoros]

It's hard to say because the Administration doesn't even seem to be clear on that point. I think what you kind of gather is we're going to make more stuff here. Over the last 30 or 40 years, we've allowed other countries to make the things that we consume. And we are an economy that produces more services, tradable services. This is high value. But we lost a lot of manufacturing jobs over the last 30 or 40 years. So part of this is we're going to bring more of those jobs back. The reason I hesitate is the president and his advisors also talk about raising more revenue from tariffs, which would imply that we continue to import things from overseas and we charge people more for it and we raise revenue that way. So I think there's a little bit of a work in progress on what exactly Trump 2.0 is driving at.

[Ryan Knudson]

Aside from the uncertainty, is there something about the policies themselves that business leaders and economists are concerned about?

[Nick Timoros]

The concerns now really come in two ways. One is that tariffs, which are taxes on imported goods, they're going to send up some prices again. So the Fed thought inflation was going to keep. You know, we're going to grind it all the way back to their goal, but it might take a couple of years now, you may go in the wrong direction. So that's one concern. The other concern is you're going to weaken growth potentially here. You know, we've had a labor market where hiring has been low, but firing has been low. I call it a slow to hire, slow to fire equilibrium. And if you do something to disrupt that, you risk a big increase in the unemployment rate. When the unemployment rate goes up by a little bit, it usually goes up by a lot. So those are the two concerns right now. You're taking steps that could push prices up and growth down. And we don't really have a lot of experience with how that's going to work out.

[Ryan Knudson]

Are there different kinds of recessions? Like the worry during the Biden administration was that the Federal Reserve might cause a recession by raising interest rates too high for too long. But now the concern about a recession seems to be driven by the tariffs.

[Nick Timoros]

Well, the worry right now, if you're at the Fed, you're charged with keeping prices low and stable and with maintaining a healthy labor market. And some of the actions on trade right now are creating what's called a negative supply shock where you're, you know, you're disrupting supply chains. The reductions in immigration also reduce the supply of workers in the country. And that's tricky because the Fed in that situation has to choose Are you going to cushion the hit to demand by lowering interest rates as the economy slows and as unemployment goes up? Or are you going to worry about inflation and prevent a bigger increase in prices by keeping interest rates higher than they otherwise would be? Which mistake are you willing to make here? You know, you kind of have to. It's a lose, lose for the Fed. So they have to pick which thing they think is the bigger problem to worry about. And sometimes that just isn't obvious.

[Ryan Knudson]

Mal, I want to get your take on this. Given how important the economy is historically for presidents and all politicians, really, how unusual is it to see a president and Donald Trump acknowledging that, yeah, we might go through a period of pain. I can't rule out the possibility of a recession. What do you make of Trump kind of leaning into this uncertainty?

[Molly Ball]

It's pretty remarkable. I mean, especially coming from Trump, right, who is usually someone who is sort of full of optimistic bluster, for lack of a better word, who is very good at messaging the idea that everything's going great. I think, you know, the president and the people around him feel that he was elected on a platform of change and he was elected as a disruptive figure. And so he has a sort of unique opportunity. And also because he is just such a dominant messenger, he has this unique ability to convince people that, yes, you're going to have to suffer a little bit, but it's for the greater good. And once we get through this period of dislocation, everyone's gonna be better off and the economy will be structured differently in a way that is better for the country long term. I think there's a lot of jitters about whether that's actually true. But it is a pretty unusual thing to be seeing in politics, a president who's basically admitting, like, yes, I am causing you to have some unpleasantness in your day to day life. And I'm doing that on purpose because I'm trying to achieve something bigger.

[Ryan Knudson]

The unique power of Trump to shape the narrative, though, might only go so far because there was a poll out this week from CNN that found that 56% of the public now disapproves of his handling of the economy, which is the first time this poll has ever found a majority of voters disapproving of Trump on the economy. I'm curious what you've been hearing from the business community, from business leaders about how they're reacting to all this.

[Molly Ball]

Well, I'd love to hear what Nick thinks about this as well. You know, the Business Roundtable, which is a group of top executives was in D.C. this week and Trump spoke to them. And I also spoke to many of the executives and people around them who were in town for this meeting. And in the public session, the on camera part that Trump spoke at, it was very friendly. There was no criticism really. But privately, that was not what you heard. Privately, I was struck by the level of pessimism. A lot of these CEOs and people in the business community are feeling very concerned and alarmed by where this is headed. The thing that really alarms a lot of people in the business community is they always thought that Trump would be responsive to the market going down. They always thought that that was a really important metric to him. And if something he did started to make the stock market sl, he would change course. And the fact that he's looking at the stock market slipping and saying, we're going to brazen through it, that has really set a lot of people on edge. But, Nick, what do you think?

[Nick Timoros]

Businesses hate this, right? They just hate it. And it's not so much the tariffs. I mean, a lot of businesses don't like tariffs unless it's going to protect their industry. What they don't like is that what's announced at 9am May be different from what policy is at 1pm versus what policy is at 5pm how do you plan for the future in that environment? I mean, if you are going to bring your factories back to the U.S. you want to know what the, you know, what the tariff rates are going to be, what the cost structure is going to be. So what I've heard from businesses, it's not so much we don't like tariffs and we don't want to see tariffs even if that's true. It's they want certainty. They want to know what the outlook is going to be. Even if the tariffs are going to be really high. Just tell me what they're going to be and then let's get on with this and we can plan for that. I think that's the issue that is most frustrating right now to business leaders. And you're exactly right. They're not saying these things publicly because nobody wants to get into the President's line of fire.

[Ryan Knudson]

All right, I want to bring in a question from one of our listeners, Charles park, who, when we got this question, my first thought was, I know exactly who I want to ask this of, and it is Nick Timoros, and you are here. So here we go. In your podcast, you state that many economists fear the President's actions will further increase the United States inflation. However, it has been stated several times from the President and his administration that cutting government spending will lead to decreasing inflation. If you look at Elon Musk's first interview in the Oval Office that was said, are they right? So what do you think of this, Nick? Can cutting government spending help ease inflation?

[Nick Timoros]

I mean, the answer is yes, but it's complicated. So cutting spending reduces demand. That can help in an overheated economy? Absolutely. That can help you get inflation and price pressures to cool off. The tariffs are more complicated because if you just raise tariffs once, you know, set it and forget it, we're doing this, it's going to be 10%. It's going to infect on April 1, and everybody knows now that's what's coming. It'll raise prices, but it'll be a one time effect. If it's only going to happen one time, you shouldn't react to it by raising interest rates or tightening monetary policy to constrain demand for something that's just going to resolve itself on its own. You wouldn't want to hurt the labor market for something that's just going to play itself out. The worry on tariffs is if it begins to get bigger or it's spread out over a longer period of time, then it's harder to tell, well, are prices going up because of tariffs or are prices going up because of broader factors in the underlying economy? And that's a situation where the Fed would need to step in and say, all right, we have to cool the economy down now. So the policy experiments, they get sort of hard to untangle.

[Ryan Knudson]

All right, before we let you go, Nick, one last question. Let's just cut to the chase. Is there going to be a recession? Yes or no?

[Nick Timoros]

I will never answer that question.

[Molly Ball]

Just like I will never tell you who's going to win an election.

[Ryan Knudson]

All right, well, Nick, thank you so much for your time.

[Molly Ball]

Thanks, Nick.

[Nick Timoros]

Thank you, Brian. Thanks, Molly.

[Ryan Knudson]

Okay, we're going to take a short break. Don't go anywhere.

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See Mint Mobile for details. Something else that's making headlines this week, Molly, is the arrest of a Columbia student, Mahmoud Khalil. Khalil was one of the students that was leading the pro Palestine protests on Columbia's campus last year, and he often spoke with the media about ending the war in Gaza. The students are here. They are holding their grounds until they get what they want, which is divestment from the Israeli occupation. So Khalil is a legal resident. He has a green card. So first, I'm just curious to know what is the legal argument that the Trump administration is making for why he can be deported?

[Molly Ball]

They have said that they are revoking his green card. Interestingly, it appears that they may not have originally understood that that was what they were doing. His lawyer said that when they first went to detain him, they said they were revoking his student visa. And he said, no, I have a green card. And they said, well, we're revoking that, too. But they have said that they are revoking his green card because he led these protests essentially, and he hasn't been accused of a crime. But instead, the administration has invoked this sort of obscure statute that says that someone's permission to be in the country can be revoked or suspended if they interfere with American foreign policy. So the first legal proceedings on this were just held this week, and I think we're still waiting for a lot of it to play out in court. A judge has partially blocked the administration's action here, but I think there's a long way to go before we fully understand what the arguments are in this case.

[Ryan Knudson]

Well, so if his arrest and deportation is legally questionable, why do it? What is the message that the Trump administration is trying to send?

[Molly Ball]

The administration is trying to send a message here. They're trying to make a statement. And Secretary of State Marco Rubio came out and said, you know, there's going to be more where this came from. So, you know, these protests were a big flashpoint during the campaign, and Trump and people around him made very clear that they wanted to crack down on them much harder than the Biden administration did.

[Ryan Knudson]

This week, Trump officials also moved to cut about half of the staff of the Department of education, about 1,500 employees. And Trump is expected to sign an executive order soon that fully dismantles the agency. Why? What is the argument for getting rid of this agency?

[Molly Ball]

It's essentially a states rights argument. The Republicans have long felt, going back decades, that the Department of Education was not necessary, that education is primarily a local affair. There's over 10,000 school districts in America, and that's where most of the action takes place. And most of that funding comes from states and localities.

[Ryan Knudson]

So what does the Department of Education do?

[Molly Ball]

What the Department of Education primarily does is twofold. It is civil rights enforcement making sure that local school districts follow civil rights law, and it's funding for low income students and students with disabilities, and that funding has to continue. These are functions that are not optional. They're congressionally mandated that, you know, this money gets spent to support students with disabilities, for example.

[Ryan Knudson]

But the Trump administration isn't saying that they're going to get rid of that stuff. Right. They just want to break those sort of narrower and more essential functions into different pieces and put them under different agencies.

[Molly Ball]

Correct. The idea is that it might be moved into different parts of the government or sort of block granted to the states, rather than having a federal department that administers it. In practice, I think we have yet to see whether they can pull that off and how disruptive it may be, how much people may notice it in their everyday lives as a disruption to services that they rely on.

[Ryan Knudson]

If Republicans have been talking about this for so long, why hasn't it ever been done before?

[Molly Ball]

For decades, Republicans have said they want to get rid of the Department of Education, and then they get elected and they get into office and they don't do it. And the reason they don't do it is because there's a feeling that the politics of it are prohibitive, that it sounds nice as a campaign promise. But once you actually start meddling with people's education and with the education of their children, that leads to a lot of political blowback. So Reagan, for example, tried to do this and then backed off. And other presidents have not even really wanted to touch it, despite various promises in this regard.

[Ryan Knudson]

All right, last question for you, Molly, before we say goodbye, we talked about this in our last few episodes, the showdown over a government shutdown. Democrats have been trying to use the threat of a shutdown to win some concessions out of Republicans. But yesterday they threw in the towel and said they would support a Republican bill to keep the government open. What had Democrats been hoping to get out of this? And what does it say? That they've decided not to let the government shut down?

[Molly Ball]

The principal thing that the Democrats demanded was some kind of structural check on Elon Musk and Doge, some kind of language that would say that basically the executive branch has to do what Congress tells them to do, that if they're going to pass funding, the President has to abide by that. And the Republicans didn't agree to that. So Democrats have had a series of anguished closed door meetings. We reported on Wednesday that you could hear yelling coming out of the Senate Democratic Lunch. On the one hand, the Democratic base is absolutely on fire with anger. They are outraged. They want to see their leaders fighting back against what they see the Trump administration doing. On the other hand, Senate Democrats don't want to be blamed for shutting down the government. They don't want to be blamed for federal workers being furloughed and services being cut off. They see that as politically dicey for them. And many of them believe that they have a responsibility to keep the government open. So at the last minute, the Democrats found a way to get themselves to a point where they would agree to this deal to keep the government open. I think it raises a lot of questions, questions going forward about what, if any, leverage they may have in the future. Given that this was the main thing where Republicans needed their votes, what does.

[Ryan Knudson]

That say about the calculation the Democrats made?

[Molly Ball]

Look, Democrats were in a difficult, if not impossible spot politically, and they made the best of what they saw as two bad choices.

[Ryan Knudson]

All right, Molly, well, thanks so much as always for your time.

[Molly Ball]

Thanks, Ryan. Always fun to be with you.

[Ryan Knudson]

We'll see you next week.

[Molly Ball]

See you then.

[Ryan Knudson]

As always, before we go, do you have any questions about what the Trump administration is doing? Please send us a voice recording to thejournalsj.com that's thejournalsj.com Trump 2.0 is part of the Journal, which is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. This episode was produced by Alan Rudman Espinosa and edited by Kathryn Whelan. Molly Ball is the Wall Street Journal's senior political correspondent. I'm Ryan Knudson. This episode was engineered by Griffin Tanner. Our theme music is by so Wiley and remixed by Peter Leonard. Additional music in this episode by Bobby Lord and Emma Munger. Fact checking by Kate Gallagher. Artwork by James Walton. Trump 2.0 will be back with a new episode next Friday. See you then.