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Ryan Knudsen (3:28)

The US has pointed to several reasons for its military action in Iran. The first justification came earlier this year when protesters were taken to the streets of Iran and the Iranian government staged a violent crackdown. The US Started sending ships and troops to the region and President Trump said the US Was coming to help.

Alex Ward (3:49)

So Trump said help is on its way and he encouraged Iranians to the streets to effectively throw over the government. And so Trump decides to build up a military presence to the largest the US has done since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Ryan Knudsen (4:05)

The Iranian government eventually quashed the protests, killing thousands of people. The US didn't intervene at the time, but kept building up forces in the region. The second justification for attacking Iran is Iran's nuclear program. For years, the US has worried about Iran's nuclear capabilities. And in the days leading up to this Weekend's attack, some U.S. officials began warning that Iran was on the cusp of developing material that could produce a nuclear weapon. Here's US Special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Wyckoff talking about Iran's nuclear program last week.

Steve Wyckoff (4:38)

They've been enriching well beyond the number that you need for, for civil nuclear. It's up to 60%. They're probably a week away from having industrial grade bomb making material.

Ryan Knudsen (5:02)

What do we know about the state of Iran's nuclear program? Was Steve Witkoff right in that Iran was a week away from having industrial grade bomb making material?

Alex Ward (5:11)

I mean, he was right in the sense that, like, Iran has that material and it's enriched enough to get to that point. But the issue is, do they have the actual physical equipment to then enrich it to weapons grade?

Ryan Knudsen (5:24)

Many in the intelligence community don't think Iran has that ability, according to people Alex and his colleagues have spoken with. Because the US Destroyed most of Iran's nuclear equipment in an operation last year. Since then, Trump has said repeatedly that Iran's nuclear capabilities were obliterated. Here he is during last week's State of the Union.

Steve Wyckoff (5:43)

That's why in a breakthrough operation last June, the United States military obliterated Iran's nuclear weapons program with an attack on Iranian soil known as Operation Midnight Hammer.

Ryan Knudsen (5:57)

And even if you have nuclear material, it doesn't mean you have a bomb.

Alex Ward (6:01)

That takes a while. And if Iran were to make that move towards a nuclear bomb and to try to perfect it, then that would have been many months. Now we're talking about like crude bombs right early on, if they want to do something that's like, really devastating, that'd be a while away. So again, like, one of the things we should note here is that there's kind of always been an Iranian threat, a looming threat. The issue here was, is imminence and on the nuclear front, like, it wasn't immediately happening. Now,

Ryan Knudsen (6:31)

the third thing the Trump administration has talked about is that Iran was developing an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the United States. What do we know about how close Iran actually was to such a weapon?

Alex Ward (6:43)

So the administration initially said, well, look, Iran is very close to obtaining an intercontinental ballistic missile, which that's basically a missile that spans oceans, goes into the atmosphere, comes back down, survives, you know, reentry, and then detonates at its point, which is one of the more technologically advanced missiles one can build. So they basically were like, look, they're doing this. That means that the US Homeland will soon be in range from the Iranians, even though currently they are. They have missiles that can hit Europe, Middle East, Israel and elsewhere.

Ryan Knudsen (7:16)

But the Trump administration has walked back this concern in recent days.

Alex Ward (7:20)

Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Monday said, well, the issue really is that they've got a bunch of short range missiles which they're using now across the region to inflict harm. And then you had Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth say, well, Iran's really trying to build this, like, conventional missile shield that can stop outside powers from preventing it from making a nuclear weapon. Now, that's very different from making an icbm. Like, there's no question the Iranians were like, making missiles. That's been part of the problem this whole time is that they are making quite a remarkable missile arsenal. But the ICBM is a whole different step. And it's not clear, according to US Intelligence and others, that they had even made that decision to make one. And if they had, that would have taken a few years, too.

Ryan Knudsen (8:07)

Finally, there's been a fourth justification, which is that the US Suspected Iran was preparing to strike the US or its assets. Can you explain why the Trump administration had this sense that there was an imminent attack?

Alex Ward (8:19)

So on Saturday, they said, well, we, the US have obtained this intelligence that says they are thinking of a preemptive attack on the U.S. so even before the U.S. would strike Iran, they would go ahead and hit Americans. If we stood and waited for that

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attack to come first before we hit them, we would suffer much higher casualties.

Ryan Knudsen (8:38)

But the administration offered more nuance on that when talking with congressional staffers, telling them that Israel was planning to strike Iran and if Israel followed through on that, then Iran would strike US Forces in the region.

Alex Ward (8:50)

We've got, you know, thousands of troops all over the region and of course, we've got some in Europe and we've got allies in Europe and elsewhere there too. So basically what the administration was saying is Iran's preemptive attack decision is based upon Israel attacking first. And that is not what a preemptive attack is, that's a retaliation.

Ryan Knudsen (9:10)

Trump was asked about this earlier today in the Oval Office. Mr. President, did Israel force your hand

Alex Ward (9:15)

to launch these strikes against Iran? Did that will the United States into this war?

Steve Wyckoff (9:20)

No, I might have forced their hand. You see, we were having negotiations with these lunatics and it was my opinion that they were going to attack first. They were going to attack. If we didn't do it, they were going to attack first. I felt strongly about that.

Ryan Knudsen (9:36)

And

Alex Ward (9:38)

this is an offensive decision. Right? And we kind of know it was an offensive decision because one, in January, Trump said help is on its way, Two, they built a large armada here, and three, they weren't shy about saying if there's no nuclear deal, there are going to be strikes. So the notion that this all started somehow over a defensive concern just kind of strains credulity.

Ryan Knudsen (9:59)

Is it possible that the Trump administration just sensed an opportunity, that it saw that Iran was weak and it decided to essentially just push it over?

Alex Ward (10:10)

That's what it seems like. Again, there's no question that the Iranians were making gains in building missiles, that they hadn't given up its nuclear work, and that there were great suspicions and decent indications that they were moving towards making a nuclear weapon at some point. And they've been a fairly strong regime, they've had great state control and they've been doing a lot of this stuff. They've amassed great proxy power. But look at what's happened really since the October 7th attack in Gaza on the Israelis by Hamas. What happened? Well, after that, the Israelis knocked out Hezbollah and Hamas, two of their major proxies. The Iranian economy under US Led sanctions has completely tanked. The protests in January show that there's massive public unrest and disapproval with the regime. All to say there was no weaker point really, since 1979 for Iran. And if you're the US and you do or the Trump administration you care about, you know, you see all these things Iran's doing, you go, well, why wait? Why wait till they get stronger? Hit them now. But that's not the case they're making.

Ryan Knudsen (11:11)

Why does it matter? Like, why would the Trump administration try to make A defensive case. Why not just say that this. We sensed an opportunity and we decided to strike.

Alex Ward (11:21)

Because Trump's political rise from the first term, but also in the second, was built around him being the president of Peace no more Wars. I mean, you also saw Vice President J.D. vance, in multiple occasions, say, you know, part of the reason he joined the ticket was because this would not be an administration that engaged in stupid wars anymore. And, you know, Trump had initially said the Iraq war was dumb, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So this action counters their entire political messaging, their entire case for election.

Ryan Knudsen (11:55)

The Trump administration did not go to Congress to seek approval for this conflict with Iran. Why not? Does it have anything to do with how the Trump administration is justifying it? The fact that they're saying it was an imminent threat?

Alex Ward (12:08)

Yes. The President is allowed to do so without notifying Congress, assuming an imminent threat. You're totally right about that. I should note Congress has basically ceded its foreign policy authority for a really long time. Right. This isn't just a Trump phenomenon. This is going back through multiple Democratic and Republican administrations. The Trump team, for a while, as have other administrations, said Congress doesn't have any real say in this. You know, the President has constitutional authorities to do this kind of thing. Now they've notified Congress through the War Powers act as to their reasoning for this, and it was in their rationale to take out the threat from the Iranian regime, its navy, its missiles, its nuclear, etc. So that was the reason.

Ryan Knudsen (12:50)

How will the Trump administration know when its mission in Iran is finished? That's next.

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Ryan Knudsen (14:11)

The Trump administration has laid out four specific goals for its operations in destroy Iran's missile capabilities, annihilate its navy, prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, and stop it from funding terrorism.

Alex Ward (14:25)

So he's thrown out a whole bunch of goals here. He's talked initially about making, cutting a deal with the regime right away. He's talked about, you know, the US has the back of the Iranian people as they rise up. He's had conversations with local leaders who might be willing to take up arms against the regime. He's talked about just basically crushing the regime militarily and then seeing what, what rises kind of naturally. It's all over the place. So the one consistent thing here is that Trump just wants to bomb and target a lot of the things Iran can do to hurt the US and allies.

Ryan Knudsen (15:01)

What's your sense now of how the Trump administration is viewing regime change? Is it accomplishing any of these goals possible with the current regime that's in place?

Alex Ward (15:10)

You know, we're in this, we're still very early into this. I think this is officially day four of this war. I mean, we are in a world in which, you know, the range of possibilities go from a at least US Friendly, but perhaps small d democratic government forms in Iran to complete regional chaos and war. Now, the Trump administration keeps saying this isn't a war about regime change. In fact, Secretary Hegseth said, you know, this isn't about regime change, but the regime did change. This is not a so called regime change war, but the regime sure did change and the world is better off for it.

Ryan Knudsen (15:50)

When Trump took questions from reporters today in the Oval Office, he said, what's next for Iran's leadership is unclear.

Steve Wyckoff (15:56)

You know, we had some in mind from that group that is dead and now we have another group. They may be dead also based on reports. So I guess you have a third wave coming and pretty soon we're not going to know anybody.

Ryan Knudsen (16:12)

In those same remarks, Trump also made a comparison between Iran and Venezuela.

Steve Wyckoff (16:17)

Venezuela was so incredible because we did the attack and we kept government totally intact.

Ryan Knudsen (16:25)

How much do you think would happen in Venezuela where the US Military seized President Nicolas Maduro and immediately started working with his vice president, who was thought to be friendlier to the U.S. how much do you think that is impacting Trump's thinking in Iran?

Alex Ward (16:40)

It seems to be on his mind. He's mentioned this many times what he's calling the Venezuela model, which is effectively remove the leader and then have someone else from the regime be kind of a client of the US but to compare Venezuela and Iran as apples and oranges for just one of the many reasons, you know, the Maduro regime was there for a bit. But Iran is a country that's been defined by its revolution since 1979. There are tons of people there who have benefited from this system, who would fight to keep that system there, who would take up arms, who benefit financially, socially, et cetera. And it is a country that for a while has defined itself by resistance to the US by resistance to Israel. So does that discount the possibility that there's a Delsey Rodriguez in Iran? No, that's possible. And Trump feels that that could happen. But he's also told the media, hey, we've identified some people who could potentially do that, and we've killed them. So if this is the goal, he's not doing a particularly good job of trying to realize it.

Ryan Knudsen (17:49)

You also reported this morning that Trump is now open to supporting local militias. Why?

Alex Ward (17:55)

Yes. Well, this is part of his mosaic of ideas of what's to follow. I mean, the notion that Trump is against regime change doesn't really stand up to scrutiny because, you know, he's. I should note, he's not, like, made a decision to support local militias like the Kurds or whatnot. And even if he does, it's unclear he'll send weapons or provide training or anything like that. But he does seem open to basically telling local militias, hey, if you want to take up arms and go and, you know, stream into Tehran and try to take the regime down, have at it. You know, the US Isn't going to stop you.

Ryan Knudsen (18:32)

How will the US Know when it's been successful, when it's sort of mission accomplished?

Alex Ward (18:37)

Your guess is as good as mine. I think at this point, it's the most important real estate in the world is between President Trump's ears. It's whenever he decides, whenever he decides he's satisfied, which is why you have people speculating all over the place that he's willing to cut a deal which would keep the regime in place, or he's willing to support local militias to overthrow the regime, or. Or he's willing to support popular uprisings over the regime. Like, it's unclear what he will define a success, but one could imagine that if, you know, say, oil prices go up or more service members die or the cost for Trump, however he perceives them, go up, he could find a political way out. And he's pretty good at this stuff. Right in that sense. And he could say, look, I killed Khamenei, I destroyed a lot of their weaponry, and I pushed back the nuclear program even further. You know, success. I'm good.

Ryan Knudsen (19:39)

That's all for today. Tuesday, March 3rd. The Journal is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. Additional reporting in this episode by Michael Gordon, Laura Seligman, Vera Bergen Gruen and Dustin Bowles. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.

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