What a Republican Congress Could Mean for Trump

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Journal – "What a Republican Congress Could Mean for Trump"

Release Date: November 7, 2024

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Introduction

In the latest episode of The Journal, hosted by Jessica Mendoza and Siobhan Hughes, the discussion centers on the significant Republican victories in the recent elections, their implications for President-elect Donald Trump, and the broader landscape of American politics. The episode delves into the factors contributing to the GOP's success, the potential policy shifts under a Republican-controlled Congress, and the strategic responses from the Democratic Party.

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Election Results Overview

The episode opens with a brief overview of the election outcomes, highlighting Donald Trump's decisive victory and the Republican Party's unexpected successes in both the White House and Congress.

"This week, former President Donald Trump won a decisive victory. And Republicans didn't just win the White House. They've also made gains in Congress."
— Jessica Mendoza [00:05]

Republican Dominance Surprises Analysts

Siobhan Hughes elaborates on the Republican performance, noting that the party exceeded expectations, particularly in the Senate, where the GOP secured control by a larger margin than anticipated.

"Republicans did far better than expected. Everyone was bracing for Republicans to take control of the Senate, but not necessarily by a lot."
— Siobhan Hughes [00:15]

Factors Behind the GOP Triumph

The discussion shifts to the multi-faceted reasons behind the Republicans' overwhelming success. Hughes attributes the victory to Donald Trump's influential messaging on key issues like inflation and border security, coupled with an effective ground game and voter mobilization efforts.

"A part of it is the dominance of Donald Trump and his message, his message on inflation and his message on the border. And a lot of Republicans rolled into office on those coattails."
— Siobhan Hughes [00:44]

Furthermore, she emphasizes the importance of grassroots efforts in getting out and registering voters, which even Democrats acknowledged as a significant factor.

"They had a very good ground game. Even by Democrats estimation."
— Siobhan Hughes [00:44]

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Senate Control and Key Races

With Republicans securing approximately 53 seats in the 100-member Senate, Siobhan Hughes outlines the landscape of the new Senate majority.

"We're looking at roughly 53 Republicans in the Senate. That's enough for a majority."
— Siobhan Hughes [03:13]

Notable Senate Races

A pivotal moment in the Senate races was the defeat of long-standing Democrat Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, signaling a broader trend of incumbent losses.

"Bob Casey is the son of Pennsylvania's former governor. He's a household name in the state... today he lost his seat."
— Siobhan Hughes [03:29]

Casey's loss is portrayed as emblematic of an anti-incumbent wave, with other prominent Democrats like Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio also losing their seats.

"Bob Casey is the son of Pennsylvania's former governor... this cycle of Democratic incumbents who have lost the reelection bids."
— Siobhan Hughes [04:35 - 05:52]

Democratic Holdouts

Despite these losses, Democrats managed to retain key Senate seats in Wisconsin and Michigan through incumbents like Tammy Baldwin and Elissa Slotkin, who effectively connected with their constituencies.

"Tammy Baldwin... was able to hold onto her seat... Elissa Slotkin is going to get the seat that was held by Democrat Debbie Stabenow."
— Siobhan Hughes [06:13 - 06:33]

Strategies for Democratic Success

Hughes attributes Democratic successes to strong local engagement and addressing specific regional concerns, such as dairy policy in Wisconsin, which resonated deeply with voters.

"Tammy Baldwin... worked a lot on dairy policy, and that's big in Wisconsin."
— Siobhan Hughes [06:36]

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House of Representatives: Republican Majority Secured

Turning to the House of Representatives, the Republicans' victory ensures their continued control, with Mike Johnson projected to become the new Speaker.

"Republicans are going to stay in control of the House, and their speaker would be likely Mike Johnson."
— Siobhan Hughes [06:59]

Implications of a Republican House

Hughes connects the House majority to the same issues that propelled Trump to victory—border security, inflation, and crime—highlighting the electorate's desire for change.

"It's really the same issue set that propelled Donald Trump into office. It is the border, it is inflation, it is crime."
— Siobhan Hughes [07:24]

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Policy Goals and Legislative Agenda

With a unified Republican Congress, the episode explores the potential policy initiatives that Trump and the GOP might pursue more effectively.

Tax Policy Overhaul

A primary focus will be on tax reforms, particularly the expiration of the 2017 tax cuts in 2025. Hughes anticipates that Republicans will have the leverage to extend or modify these cuts without significant opposition.

"Trump engineered tax cuts in 2017 that are due to expire at the end of 2025. And that's an area where Trump is now going to have much greater leverage to get his way."
— Siobhan Hughes [08:47]

Ukraine Funding and Foreign Policy

Additionally, funding for Ukraine could see shifts, with Trump potentially having more influence over foreign aid allocations.

"Ukraine funding to be an area where Trump was far more able to get his way."
— Siobhan Hughes [08:47]

Spending and Debt Concerns

Despite these opportunities, Hughes warns of potential conflicts within the GOP regarding spending priorities. Trump’s penchant for high spending and proposals like mass deportations raise questions about fiscal responsibility and the party's traditional stance on the debt.

"Trump is a spender. He's never really been shy about spending... there is a debt ceiling fight coming up next year."
— Siobhan Hughes [09:30 - 09:53]

Border Security Initiatives

Trump's aggressive stance on border security, including proposals for a border wall and mass deportations, is expected to dominate the legislative agenda, though the logistics and funding mechanisms remain uncertain.

"The big one for him was the border wall... he now also has this proposal for mass deportation."
— Siobhan Hughes [10:13]

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Leadership Changes in the Senate

A significant development discussed is the retirement of Mitch McConnell, the long-time Republican Senate leader. Hughes outlines the potential successors and their relationships with Trump.

"Mitch McConnell, longtime Republican leader there, is stepping down from leadership."
— Jessica Mendoza [11:20]

Potential Successors: John Thune and John Cornyn

The two leading contenders to replace McConnell are John Thune of South Dakota and John Cornyn of Texas. While neither is closely aligned with Trump, both have built reputations that command respect within the party and among voters.

"Neither John Thune nor John Cornyn is wildly close to Donald Trump, but they have both made their peace with him."
— Siobhan Hughes [12:08]

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Democratic Response and Future Strategies

With the Republicans set to control both chambers of Congress, Democrats face the challenge of adapting to a new political reality. Hughes suggests that Democrats will need to refine their messaging and protect key policy areas from Republican rollback.

Protecting Environmental Policies

One of the critical areas Democrats aim to safeguard is climate change initiatives and environmental policies, which are likely to face opposition from the GOP.

"The big one to protect would be anything having to do with climate change and environmental policy."
— Siobhan Hughes [12:39 - 13:31]

Administrative Actions Before Transition

In the remaining weeks of Democratic control, there may be efforts to expedite spending bills and ensure that allocated funds are disbursed, preventing Republicans from reclaiming these funds in future budgets.

"Democrats could bolster themselves, possibly somewhat by stuffing priorities into spending bills."
— Siobhan Hughes [12:39]

Communications Strategy

Hughes emphasizes the importance of effective communication for Democrats once they are in the minority, drawing on John Boehner's principle that "when you're not legislating, you're communicating."

"They need to have a very, very refined message and figure out who their best communicators are in this moment."
— Siobhan Hughes [13:38 - 13:55]

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Voter Sentiments and Political Realignment

The episode concludes by reflecting on the underlying voter sentiments that influenced the election results, indicating a significant political realignment.

Desire for Affordability and Security

Voters expressed frustration over economic hardships, such as housing affordability and food security, seeking relief and a sense of stability.

"Voters are hoping that their lives just become more affordable, that when they go to buy a ham sandwich at the store, they can buy a soda to go along with it."
— Siobhan Hughes [14:10]

Shift in Party Dynamics

Both political parties are experiencing shifts in traditional values and leadership, leading to uncertainty about the future direction of the Republican and Democratic parties.

"We're in the middle of a very, very big political realignment where the traditional values... are very much in flux and shifting."
— Siobhan Hughes [14:51]

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Conclusion

The episode of The Journal provides a comprehensive analysis of the recent Republican sweep and its implications for President-elect Donald Trump and the American political landscape. With Republicans now controlling both the Senate and the House, Trump is positioned to push forward his legislative agenda with greater ease. However, internal party dynamics and the need to manage expansive policy goals present both opportunities and challenges. Meanwhile, Democrats must strategize to protect key policies and redefine their messaging in a rapidly changing political environment. The episode underscores a pivotal moment in U.S. politics, marking a potential era of significant policy shifts and political realignment.

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Notable Quotes

1. "There isn't any one single factor. A part of it is the dominance of Donald Trump and his message, his message on inflation and his message on the border."
   — Siobhan Hughes [00:44]

2. "Republicans are going to stay in control of the House, and their speaker would be likely Mike Johnson."
   — Siobhan Hughes [06:59]

3. "Trump is going to be in a very, very powerful position to carry forward his agenda."
   — Siobhan Hughes [07:27]

4. "When you're not legislating, you're communicating."
   — John Boehner (Referenced by Siobhan Hughes) [13:38]

5. "We're in the middle of a very, very big political realignment where the traditional values... are very much in flux and shifting."
   — Siobhan Hughes [14:51]

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Additional reporting in this episode by Katie Stetch Farick.

Transcript

[Jessica Mendoza]

This week, former President Donald Trump won a decisive victory. And Republicans didn't just win the White House. They've also made gains in Congress.

[Siobhan Hughes]

Republicans did far better than expected. Everyone was bracing for Republicans to take control of the Senate, but not necessarily by a lot. Even top Republicans were trying to manage expectations, and the expectation was that Democrats were going to win the House. We would have divided government, maybe an uncertain landscape, but that was the picture that was coming into view and at a high level.

[Jessica Mendoza]

How would you say that happened?

[Siobhan Hughes]

How did Republicans dominate so fully? There isn't any one single factor. A part of it is the dominance of Donald Trump and his message, his message on inflation and his message on the border. And a lot of Republicans rolled into office on those coattails. They mobilized. There was a big swamp the vote. We have to get out and register. And they had a very good ground game. Even by Democrats estimation.

[Jessica Mendoza]

While votes are still being counted in some states, Republicans have taken control of the Senate and are poised to keep their majority in the House of Representatives.

[Siobhan Hughes]

It's going to be another trifecta. We are right back in 2016 when Donald Trump barged in and had all the levers of government in his fingers.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Welcome to the Journal, our show about money, business and power. I'm Jessica mendoza. It's Thursday, November 7th. Coming up on the show, what a Republican Congress could mean for President elect Donald Trump.

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[Jessica Mendoza]

Okay, let's look more closely at the breakdown of Congress. What does the majority look like in the Senate?

[Siobhan Hughes]

We're looking at roughly 53 Republicans in the Senate. That's enough for a majority with, of course, 100 senators.

[Jessica Mendoza]

That's Siobhan Hughes, our congressional reporter.

[Siobhan Hughes]

Right now, as we speak, we do still have two Senate races that have not yet been called.

[Jessica Mendoza]

So far, Republicans have gained four seats in the Senate. One of those seats is in Pennsylvania. That's where Bob Casey, a Democrat, was running for reelection. He's been in office since 2007 and today he lost his seat.

[Siobhan Hughes]

And this race is really a microcosm of the forces we have seen coursing through this ent. It has turned out to be an anti incumbent election, which doesn't help somebody who has been in office for 18 years. So Bob Casey is the son of Pennsylvania's former governor. He's a household name in the state. He really knows how to work that state. I spent a lot of time crisscrossing Pennsylvania. I went to Erie county and I talked to people who knew he had gotten $48 million for the biggest employer in that area. I met somebody who showed me a picture on her phone of Bob with her spending a day as a home health aid worker in her house. And so this is somebody who delivers for the state.

[Jessica Mendoza]

On the campaign trail, Casey distanced himself from the Biden administration. He promised to protect fracking and supported tariffs on Chinese goods. Polling showed Casey was favored to narrowly win the race, but his Republican opponent, Dave McCormick, beat expectations. McCormick is a former hedge fund manager and army veteran.

[Siobhan Hughes]

What Dave McCormick did is he talks about the ways in which life has just become really hard in so many places in Pennsylvania. He talks about how inflation is really high. You know, he also talks a lot about the border. And he runs these ads that show him with these, like police cars, as if he's really out there, a cop on the beat trying to protect people. This sense they have that there's crime out there and there's too much migration and really projecting the sense that Bob Casey is just not standing up forcefully enough against either the Democratic Party or a lot of these forces that are making life so hard for people right now.

[Jessica Mendoza]

McCormick won by a slim margin, so close that it could trigger a recount. But if the results hold, Casey will be part of a larger trend. This cycle of Democratic incumbents who have lost the reelection bids.

[Siobhan Hughes]

Like in Montana, Jon Tester has lost his race. Sherrod Brown, who is a household name in Ohio, has lost his race. Those were the last two Democrats remaining in statewide office in their respective states.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Where have Democrats been able to defend their seats?

[Siobhan Hughes]

Tammy Baldwin, for example, in Wisconsin, was able to hold onto her seat. And so that was certainly a win in Michigan. Elissa Slotkin is going to get the seat that was held by Democrat Debbie Stabenow. And so she made a good defensive play in that state. Those are some examples of the bright spots for Democrats.

[Jessica Mendoza]

What would you say worked for Democrats in those cases?

[Siobhan Hughes]

So for Tammy Baldwin, a big thing that worked was she was out a lot in the rural areas. She's worked a lot on dairy policy, and that's big in Wisconsin. And so those voters really felt that she delivered for them. And that's a big constituency.

[Jessica Mendoza]

So that's the Senate. What about the House?

[Siobhan Hughes]

So right now, it looks like Republicans are going to stay in control of the House, and their speaker would be likely Mike Johnson, who obviously has had a very, very good election day. And it's really the same issue set that propelled Donald Trump into office. It is the border, it is inflation, it is crime. It is a sense that this country has heading in the wrong direction and just not working for enough people.

[Jessica Mendoza]

So this all sounds like a big win for Trump.

[Siobhan Hughes]

Trump is going to be in a very, very powerful position to carry forward his agenda. What's more, this is a new Trump. This is a Trump who now has experience being president. He knows what he wants, and he's gonna be able to be much more focused.

[Jessica Mendoza]

What Trump and the GOP will do with their power, that's next.

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[Jessica Mendoza]

Okay, so we've been talking about the races, and at this point, we know what Congress will look like. Generally speaking, could we talk about some of the policy goals that Trump has that might be easier to push through, given the makeup of this Congress?

[Siobhan Hughes]

So the top one is going to be taxes. Trump engineered tax cuts in 2017 that are due to expire at the end of 2025. And that's an area where Trump is now going to have much greater leverage to get his way. Because Republicans will be able to turn to this tactic to pass that on a simple majority vote in the Senate, they're going to skirt the filibuster. That's probably the most important one. Also, though, I would look for Ukraine funding to be an area where Trump was far more able to get his way.

[Jessica Mendoza]

But even though Trump will have more support than ever from Republicans in Congress, some of his proposals might still face some pushback.

[Siobhan Hughes]

Number one, Trump is a spender. He's never really been shy about spending. And in the past, he has flirted with this idea of a debt deal default. At one point talking about how if the economy crashed, perhaps the US should suggest giving back only half of the money it owed. So that's going to be something that Republicans have to manage.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Very different than what the Republican Party has stood for for a very long.

[Siobhan Hughes]

Time, frankly, than what either party has stood for, because lawmakers in both parties know that a debt default would be catastrophic to this country. We have a debt ceiling fight coming up next year, and I think it's really going to test the spine of a lot of Republicans.

[Jessica Mendoza]

What are some of the things that you expect him to be spending on?

[Siobhan Hughes]

Well, the big one for him was the border wall, you know, but he now also has this proposal for mass deportation. Logistically, it is not clear how that exactly would work, but one would surmise that that takes a lot of manpower. So how exactly is he going to pay for this proposal?

[Jessica Mendoza]

How much of these policy ideas, how much of this is dependent on Congress, and how much of this can Trump sign off on his own?

[Siobhan Hughes]

You know, I've been thinking a lot about this. When I went back to look at his record, one thing that jumped out at me was how much Donald Trump really tried to thumb his nose at Congress, and he would just plow ahead with what he wanted to do, even when the law didn't allow it. And he actually ended up coming out sort of on top. You know, there was a big fight over the border wall last time, and Trump just snatched money from the military budget and said he was using it to build a wall. And after multiple court challenges, the Supreme Court ended up siding with Donald Trump on that. He won.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Having a solid GOP majority in the Senate also means that Trump's appointments to his Cabinet and to federal courts could be easily confirmed. We have to take a moment to talk about the big change in the Senate. Mitch McConnell, longtime Republican leader there, is stepping down from leadership. So who is likely to succeed him?

[Siobhan Hughes]

We're going to have this conversation next week. And the two top contenders are the Johns. The two Johns. John Thune of South Dakota, he is the number two Senate Republican. And John Cornyn of Texas, who used to be the Senate Republican whip.

[Jessica Mendoza]

And what can we expect from McConnell's successor, especially in terms of how they might align or not with Trump.

[Siobhan Hughes]

So neither John Thune nor John Cornyn is wildly close to Donald Trump, but they have both made their peace with him. They respect him as the party's leader. They respect the voters who sent Donald Trump into power. But, you know, both men would be expected to have their work cut out for them in negotiating with Donald Trump.

[Jessica Mendoza]

All that said, Democrats do still hold the presidency and the Senate for a few more weeks. How might they prepare for this new reality that's coming in January?

[Siobhan Hughes]

So Democrats do have Congress for a few more weeks. You're exactly right. Democrats could bolster themselves, possibly somewhat by stuffing priorities into spending bills. The administration could also work administratively right now to ensure that money that has already been allocated gets shipped out to whatever entities need it. That prevents Republicans from clawing back those funds in a future budget. The big one to protect would be anything having to do with climate change and environmental policy, because Republicans are no fans of green New Deal spending. And that would be something Democrats would very much want to insulate from political pressure.

[Jessica Mendoza]

So we're talking about, like, the Department of Energy, the epa, that sort of thing.

[Siobhan Hughes]

Exactly.

[Jessica Mendoza]

So once Republicans take over, what might the Democratic strategy in Congress look like?

[Siobhan Hughes]

There's a really good line that John Boehner used to have, when you're not legislating, you're communicating. And so they're going to have to have a very, very refined message and figure out who their best communicators are in this moment.

[Jessica Mendoza]

So it seems like one of the themes of this election is that voters really wanted a change, and this time that meant putting Republicans, putting Trump back in control. What do you think voters are hoping for from this Congress?

[Siobhan Hughes]

You know, people are angry, and you have to understand that people have been through a lot. We're in the middle of a housing crisis where in many places people can't afford shelter, people cannot afford food. I mean, as a pocketbook matter, voters are hoping that their lives just become more affordable, that when they go to buy a ham sandwich at the store, they can buy a soda to go along with it. You know, I think that's a basic one. I think a feeling of security, maybe in a lot of ways, just a feeling that the country is more settled.

[Jessica Mendoza]

And what does that mean for both parties?

[Siobhan Hughes]

We're in the middle of a very, very big political realignment where the traditional values, traditional leaders, traditional sentiment of the parties are very much in flux and shifting. And we're gonna find out what this new Republican Party looks like. And we're also gonn if the Democratic Party is going to remake itself in response to these losses.

[Jessica Mendoza]

That's all for today. Thursday, November 7th. The journal is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. Additional reporting in this episode by Katie Stetch Farick. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.