What We're Watching for Tonight

Summary

Podcast Summary: "What We're Watching for Tonight" – The Journal

Released on November 5, 2024, "What We're Watching for Tonight" is an insightful episode of "The Journal," a collaborative production by The Wall Street Journal and Gimlet, hosted by Jessica Mendoza with contributions from political veteran Ben Pershing. This episode delves into the intricacies of the 2024 election night, providing listeners with a comprehensive guide to understanding what to expect as results unfold.

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1. Setting the Scene

The episode opens with Jessica Mendoza in the bustling Washington, D.C. newsroom of The Wall Street Journal on election day. Amidst reporters heading to polling stations, Jessica introduces Ben Pershing, the Journal's Politics Editor, highlighting the anticipation and strategic planning involved in covering such a pivotal event.

Quote:

"It's actually pretty quiet right now. Seems like a lot of folks are still out and about reporting, heading to polling stations, probably talking to voters." [00:05]

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2. Overview of the 2024 Election

Ben Pershing sets the stage by emphasizing the unprecedented closeness of the 2024 presidential race. Unlike previous elections where outcomes become clearer as the night progresses, this election remains tightly contested across multiple battleground states.

Key Points:

• Closest Race Ever: Ben notes that the 2024 race is possibly the closest in history, with no clear leader emerging as the night unfolds.

  Quote:

  "What makes this one special? Yes, it probably is the closest race we've ever covered." [03:55]

• Battleground States: Seven states are identified as pivotal: Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina.

  Quote:

  "We think seven. There's really seven states that are really close and could go either way." [04:17]

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3. Close Races and Battleground States

The discussion delves into the dynamics of the seven battleground states, highlighting their significance in determining the election outcome.

Key Points:

• Blue Wall vs. Sunbelt: Ben categorizes the states into "blue wall" (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin) and "Sunbelt" (North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada), explaining the strategic advantages each side holds.

  Quote:

  "There's the blue wall states... and then there's what's kind of loosely called the Sunbelt." [04:32]

• Swing Factors: The potential shift of voters in these states could tip the scales for either candidate, making them focal points of the night's analysis.

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4. Key Counties to Watch

To gain early insights into voting patterns, Ben outlines specific counties that serve as indicators for broader demographic shifts. These counties are chosen based on their representative populations, including age, ethnicity, and socio-economic status.

Highlighted Counties:

1. Travis County, Texas ([08:36])

   • Description: Home to Austin and the University of Texas, Travis County is a blue-leaning area with a significant young and educated population.
   • Significance: A strong performance by Harris here could signal robust Democratic turnout in similar counties.

   Quote:

   "It's the kind of place we're going to look at to see what Democratic turnout looks like." [08:36]

2. Hernando County, Florida ([09:38])

   • Description: Located on Florida's Gulf Coast, Hernando County has a large population of seniors (over 25% aged 65+).
   • Significance: Traditionally a Republican stronghold, shifts here could indicate changes in older voter preferences.

   Quote:

   "It's the kind of place that might be indicative of how older voters are going." [09:38]

3. Macomb County, Michigan ([10:18])

   • Description: A suburban and exurban county north of Detroit, Macomb has swung between Democratic and Republican support in recent elections.
   • Significance: As a key blue wall state, performance here is crucial for Harris; strong Republican results could hinder her chances.

   Quote:

   "If she lost any of these three blue wall states, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania, it just makes her job much harder." [10:58]

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5. House and Senate Races

Beyond the presidential race, the episode touches on the tight contests within the House and the relative stability in the Senate.

House of Representatives:

• Narrow Majority: Republicans hold a slim majority but are defending numerous seats, especially in states like California and New York, where vote counting may be delayed.

  Quote:

  "Republicans ending up with a five seat majority. They could see Democrats ending up with a 5 seat majority or even a 10 seat majority." [05:52]

Senate:

• Republican Edge: Due to the current map, Republicans are favored to maintain or slightly expand their majority by winning a few additional seats.

  Quote:

  "All Republicans need to do to capture the majority is win a couple seats and they've got it." [06:52]

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6. Election Night Predictions and Coverage

Ben Pershing shares insights into what the Journal team will be monitoring throughout the night, including the strategic use of data from AP VoteCast to anticipate voting behaviors.

Key Points:

• Data-Driven Analysis: The team utilizes AP VoteCast, which polls thousands in advance, to project voting patterns based on demographics and issue importance.

  Quote:

  "Even before calls, we can say, wow, look at the suburbs, look at how women turned out, look at how Latino men shifted to the Republicans." [14:53]

• Patterns and Trends: By analyzing early results from selected counties, the team aims to identify broader trends that could predict the final outcome.

  Quote:

  "We're now gonna find out what actually happened." [15:35]

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7. Potential Counting Delays

Addressing common concerns, Ben discusses the possible delays in vote counting, especially in states with historically contentious ballots and voting rules.

Key Points:

• Pennsylvania Delays: Known for disputes over voting procedures, Pennsylvania is a likely candidate for extended vote counting, potentially delaying the final outcome until days after the election.

  Quote:

  "Pennsylvania is always a bet to hold up... I think they'll take till Saturday this time." [13:11]

• Arizona and Wisconsin: These states also have histories of voting controversies, which could further prolong the determination of winners.

  Quote:

  "Arizona and Wisconsin... you count also have a lot of attention on both of those places as they count." [13:40]

• Patience is Essential: Ben advises listeners to remain patient and avoid jumping to conclusions based on early results, as initial tallies may not fully represent the final vote distribution.

  Quote:

  "Patience and most importantly, not jumping to conclusions, that's something." [16:42]

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8. Conclusion

As the episode wraps up, Jessica Mendoza and Ben Pershing emphasize the unpredictable nature of election night and the importance of comprehensive analysis over immediate reactions. Ben shares his cautious optimism about the timeline, hoping for clarity within a few days rather than prolonged uncertainty.

Final Thoughts:

• Timeline Prediction: Ben anticipates that, unlike 2020, the 2024 results may be clear by Wednesday or Thursday, though he remains open to the possibility of delays.

  Quote:

  "I don't wanna get pinned down too much on one particular time... I could see it being Thursday." [14:24]

• Media Responsibility: The Journal aims to provide accurate, data-driven coverage to help listeners navigate the complexities of election night without succumbing to misinformation or premature conclusions.

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Overall, "What We're Watching for Tonight" offers a meticulous breakdown of the 2024 election landscape, equipping listeners with the knowledge and expectations needed to comprehend the unfolding political drama.

Transcript

[Jessica Mendoza]

Okay. It's about midday, late morning on election day, and I am in the Washington, D.C. newsroom of the Wall Street Journal. It's actually pretty quiet right now. Seems like a lot of folks are still out and about reporting, heading to polling stations, probably talking to voters. But what we're going to do is we're going to go over to Ben Pershing's desk. He's the politics editor here at the Journal and kind of just see how things are shaping up. But before we do that, I gotta bring him an offering. There's some snacks here. Let's do some Cheez its granola bar. We'll do that. Let's head over. And here's Ben. Hi, Ben. How's it going?

[Ben Pershing]

Good.

[Jessica Mendoza]

How are you feeling today?

[Ben Pershing]

Pretty good.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Yeah? Yeah.

[Ben Pershing]

Rested, ready. I haven't eaten too much yet.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Well, that's perfect. I brought you some snacks.

[Ben Pershing]

Oh, boy. So I love Cheez Its.

[Jessica Mendoza]

There you go.

[Ben Pershing]

And that is my go to. But usually more in the afternoon than morning.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Okay.

[Ben Pershing]

Well, that's just me.

[Jessica Mendoza]

I'm gonna put it right here in case you change your mind. It's almost in the afternoon. What's going through your mind right now?

[Ben Pershing]

So there's this sort of hurry up and wait part now that we all sit around on and we watch, you know, feeds come in from voters and long lines and people saying anecdotal things about turnout. But we also always have to remember that almost none of it means anything. Like you can't actually interpret what's going on in the morning and draw out some big conclusion about the night, usually unless there's something really crazy at this point.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Ben, how many elections have you covered?

[Ben Pershing]

Let me see. So my first one, I think, was 1998.

[Molly Ball]

Ooh.

[Ben Pershing]

So it's like every two years since then. So it's probably 13 if you include, like midterms. I don't know.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Is it still exciting for you?

[Ben Pershing]

Yes, it's fun.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Well, since you are such a pro at this, I've been doing this for a long time. We're asking for your help to put together a kind of user's guide to election night. What listeners can expect, what they should be watching for as results come in. And you're game to do that?

[Ben Pershing]

Sure.

[Molly Ball]

Yeah.

[Ben Pershing]

Happy to.

[Jessica Mendoza]

From the Washington, D.C. bureau, welcome to the Journal, our show about money, business and power. I'm Jessica Mendoza. Election day, Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Ben, do you want to tell folks what's coming up?

[Ben Pershing]

Coming up on the show, a political veteran's guide to election night.

[Molly Ball]

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[Jessica Mendoza]

So Ben, as we've established, you've covered many election nights. What makes this one different?

[Ben Pershing]

What makes this one special? Yes, it probably is the closest race we've ever covered. If you look at the polls both nationally and in the states. I just don't think we've ever had a race this close in this many important places in the final days. Usually it gets clearer by the end which way it's going and it just isn't right now.

[Jessica Mendoza]

And how many states are in play?

[Ben Pershing]

We think seven. There's really seven states that are really close and could go either way. It's Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina.

[Jessica Mendoza]

I love that you did that without looking at your notes at all.

[Ben Pershing]

It did take me a minute. I've said them too many times. I mean, one way to think about it as we do is there's the blue wall states, they call them Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and then there's what's kind of loosely called the Sunbelt, and that's North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada. There is a theory that if Harris is going to win, she's going to win those blue wall states, whereas Trump has a better shot in those other four. But as I said, we're talking about a point either way everywhere.

[Jessica Mendoza]

And then another thing that sticks out to me about this election, right, it's super close, as you said. But in terms of the issues, there are a lot of issues at play.

[Ben Pershing]

Yeah, it's a good point. I mean, there have been past elections where famously in 1992, James Carville said it was the economy, stupid. And everybody remembers that. Right? And then there have been other elections where it was maybe about post 9-11-in Iraq or one issue really being dominant. Right. And what is interesting about this election is there are so many. So, yeah, it's the economy, it's inflation, but it's also immigration and border security. It's also abortion rights and women's health. It's also the wars in Israel and Ukraine. And you can kind of go on and on. And you could point to any one of those. And if you told me that one issue was the difference, I wouldn't be surprised.

[Jessica Mendoza]

So up to this point, we've been talking about the presidential race, but what about the House and the Senate? How close are we talking in those races?

[Ben Pershing]

If it's possible to be just as close, really, the House is the one that's especially close because Republicans have a narrow majority. They're defending a lot of seats. The smartest election analysts really aren't picking a side. They're saying they could see Republicans ending up with a five seat majority. They could see Democrats ending up with a 5 seat majority or even a 10 seat majority. Kind of frustratingly for us, a lot of of the seats that are really competitive are in California and New York where it takes them a really long time to count, you know, and so if we're all waiting around and we want to know the answer, and here's California saying it'll be days before we count all these ballots, I think there'll be some frustration. So that's the House. The Senate is a little different. Republicans do have the edge in the Senate and it's just because of the map. This year, Democrats happen to be in the position of defending a whole bunch of tough seats and Republicans aren't. So all Republicans need to do to capture the majority is win a couple seats and they've got it.

[Jessica Mendoza]

So that's what we know heading into tonight. Tight races all around, but especially the presidential race. Who wins will come down to just a handful of battleground states. But tonight, Ben and his team won't just be watching states like Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. They're also going to be keeping a close eye on a handful of specific counties, counties that could give us early clues about how certain groups might be voting.

[Ben Pershing]

What we wanted to do was pick counties that represented particular demographics. Younger people, older people, large black populations, white working class populations. The idea being if we look at these counties really closely, they might be a sign of how other counties with similar populations are going to vote. So in other words, and I tell this story a lot, back in 2016, early in the Night, some of our colleagues were looking at the Florida numbers coming in, including counties that Trump was supposed to win, and they're like, wow, he was supposed to win this county by 10 or 20 points. He's winning by 40. Like, what's going on here? Something's going on here.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Trump was winning in these Florida counties, which was no surprise, but he was winning by a much bigger margin than analysts had expected. And it turned out that those big margins were an early hint of the election's final result. These are the kinds of clues Ben and his team will be looking for tonight.

[Ben Pershing]

The margins everywhere matter. So we tried to pick counties that would report pretty early in the evening, but would give us clues about what's going to happen later in the night.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Ben says if you want to know how the night's going for Trump or Harris, you could keep an eye on Travis County, Texas, Hernando County, Florida, and Macomb County, Michigan. Let's start with Travis County, Texas. Can you describe Travis County? What kind of place is it?

[Ben Pershing]

Sure. So this is where Austin is, the University of Texas, which has more than 50,000 students. Obviously it's a blue leaning place, but it's the kind of place we're going to look at to see what Democratic turnout looks like. Democratic energy.

[Jessica Mendoza]

It won't be surprising if Harris wins Travis county, but Ben says if she's winning it by a lot, it could be a sign of Democratic strength.

[Ben Pershing]

It might be a clue that other blue places, other college towns, other young places, places where Dems should rack up votes, are going to do really well.

[Jessica Mendoza]

How much does Harris have to win Travis County. Bye. To say that she's having a good night?

[Ben Pershing]

So in 2020, Biden won this county by almost 50%. So, I mean, that's a lot, right? Yeah, Dems have a big margin here, but in every place, the thing to think about is, is Harris outperforming Biden? Whatever it is, if it's a 10.4, whatever, it's a good sign for Democrats.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Let's go to another Sunbelt state. What about Hernando County, Florida? Tell us what you're looking at there.

[Ben Pershing]

Sure. It's on the Gulf coast of Florida. It's got a lot of senior communities there. So that's where more than a quarter of this population is older, over 65. So needless to say, it's the kind of place that might be indicative of how older voters are going. This is a case where Trump did really well in previous cycles, winning by big double digit margins. But we have been looking at the older vote carefully to see if Trump can keep those people or whether some of them might be shifting over to Harris a little bit. And so, again, this is a place where Trump's going to win, no question. But can he win by as much as he won in 2020?

[Jessica Mendoza]

And then let's look at one more county. This one is in Michigan, Macomb County. Why Macomb?

[Ben Pershing]

So this is just north of Detroit, and it's a kind of suburban and exurban county that we spend a lot of time thinking about.

[Molly Ball]

Right.

[Ben Pershing]

All over the country, suburbs and exurbs seem to be where it's at. And this is one that has leaned toward Trump. For example, in 2016, he won by 12 points. In 2020, he won by 8 points. And if you think about the difference there, 2016, Trump won Michigan.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Right.

[Ben Pershing]

2020, he lost Michigan, huh? I don't want to say that McComb was the difference, but it certainly made a difference. And this is a state that could be decided by less than a point overall.

[Jessica Mendoza]

And this is a particularly key state for Harris, too, being one of the blue wall states. I mean, obviously all seven battleground states are in play. But to lose Michigan would be a big loss for the Harris campaign.

[Ben Pershing]

It definitely would. If she lost any of these three blue wall states, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania, it just makes her job much harder. She really has to make it up elsewhere is to win these three states.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Coming up, Ben attempts to answer the pressing election night question, when will I be able to go to bed? That's next.

[Ryan Knudsen]

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[Jessica Mendoza]

Okay, now for the question that's on everyone's mind. How long will it take to have a winner?

[Ben Pershing]

I wish I could say we would know quickly. I'm not sure it could take days. Again, if people remember from 2020, they may have blocked it out of their minds. It wasn't until Saturday that the election was called for Joe Biden. That was the day Pennsylvania was called. And you remember that's four days after the election. What happened last time was that pretty much everything was called by Tuesday and Wednesday. And then we sat around waiting on Thursday and Friday, and then it wasn't until Saturday again where we knew the winner. Now, the twist here is that Trump declared victory days earlier. Right. And honestly, I think he will do that tonight. Most likely in either scenario, he'll say that he won or is going to win, even if the races haven't been called. And we did learn a lot in 2020 about how to think about that, how to process it, how to cover it as a news organization. If Trump says he won, but these states haven't been called and they're still close, we and most of the news media will make clear that even though Trump's saying it, it doesn't mean it's true.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Where do you see potential holdups in the count?

[Ben Pershing]

Yes, I think Pennsylvania is always a bet to hold up. There's a lot of fighting there about voting rules, counting rules, when to open ballots. There's always lawsuits in Pennsylvania. So I think they say that they've modified their procedures to speed things up a bit. But again, it took till Saturday last time. The other states that have a real history of voting problems and controversies are Arizona and Wisconsin. And I think you'll see a lot of attention on both of those places as they count, too.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Would you be down to do a little pop quiz? You kind of answered this first one already, but just of course. Okay, so when Approximately was the 2020 race called?

[Ben Pershing]

It was the Saturday early afternoon, I believe, 11:26am ET.

[Jessica Mendoza]

I was close to not bad. Okay, 2016.

[Ben Pershing]

2016. That was the morning after Wednesday morning, 2:30am Eastern.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Good memory.

[Ben Pershing]

I was around 2012. 2012 I think was like 11pm Tuesday.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Oh my gosh. Ding, ding, ding.

[Ben Pershing]

Was I right? Yes.

[Jessica Mendoza]

11:40Pm Tuesday.

[Ben Pershing]

Whole sections of my brain are devoted to this that should be devoted to other things.

[Jessica Mendoza]

So I'm gonna put you on the spot. What is your prediction for this year?

[Ben Pershing]

So I don't wanna get pinned down too much on one particular time. There's a world where we actually know by Wednesday. Last time, you know, 40 something states had been called by Wednesday. If that doesn't work, I could see it being Thursday. Last time was Saturday. Most experts I know don't think it'll take that long this time. So let's all cross our fingers.

[Jessica Mendoza]

So when you watch the results come in tonight, what will you politics editor of the Wall Street Journal actually be looking at?

[Ben Pershing]

So we do look at all the results as they come in, but even before that, we're luckily enough to subscribe to something called AP VoteCast. Basically, AP has been polling thousands and thousands of people for days heading into this election. And then they supplement it with more interviews on election Day. And they really try to get a sense of how people are voting, who they're voting for. They also ask a whole bunch of questions about issues. And we get all that data in the evening, usually before we actually start hearing calls. So even before calls, we can say, wow, look at the suburbs, look at how women turned out, look at how Latino men shifted to the Republicans. There's all these patterns we've been writing about for four years, and we're now gonna find out what actually happened.

[Jessica Mendoza]

It's like Christmas. You've been looking at these presents that have been wrapped for a while and you're shaking the box and trying to see what's in them, and you finally get to open them.

[Ben Pershing]

Yeah, Christmas is all good and fun, though. I can just say that election night is not always quite that good and fun.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Fair enough.

[Ben Pershing]

But it's still a good comparison. And then we're kind of in a holding pattern until the polls start to really close. And 7 and 7:30pm are really the times we're watching when important states start to close.

[Jessica Mendoza]

And that's when people should start turning their TVs on if they want to keep track, basically.

[Ben Pershing]

Exactly. And you know, Georgia closing at 7 and North Carolina closing at 7:30. They both had this big early vote that gets reported early. So in other words, we don't have to wait till the end of the night to see people who voted by mail or voted early. They should get dumped in pretty quick. And so we'll actually have a big chunk of votes to look at. But what's challenging there and confusing sometimes is the early vote still tends to lean Democratic. So it's possible big chunks of early votes come in in Georgia and you're like, oh, wow, Harris is ahead. But you have to wait for that election day vote to catch up, which is going to be more Republican.

[Jessica Mendoza]

So it feels like patience is key for anybody who's trying to keep track of this this evening and the next few days.

[Ben Pershing]

Yeah, I would say patience and most importantly, not jumping to conclusions, that's something.

[Jessica Mendoza]

To keep in mind for sure. Well, Ben, I know it's going to be a long night for you, so I'm going to let you go and just say best of luck. Thank you for the work you and your team do, and we'll see where it takes us.

[Ben Pershing]

Thanks so much for having me. I appreciate it.

[Jessica Mendoza]

That's all for today. Tuesday, November 5th. The Journal is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. We'll be back in your feed tomorrow morning with a new episode of our election series, Red, White and who our hosts, Ryan Knudsen and Molly Ball, will be debriefing election night. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.