What's Next For Iran?

Summary

The Journal. — Episode Summary

Episode Title: What’s Next For Iran?
Date: March 2, 2026
Hosts: Jessica Mendoza & Ryan Knutson (WSJ)
Guest: Suna Rasmussen (WSJ reporter)
Theme:
A critical, on-the-ground look at the US and Israel’s major military strikes against Iran, the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, and the potentially historic upheaval now facing Iran and the wider Middle East. The episode analyzes the immediate triggers, Iran’s response, regional fallout, and the risks of escalation, with deep insight from Middle East correspondent Suna Rasmussen.

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1. Backdrop: Massive Strikes, Regional Upheaval

• [00:05] Jessica Mendoza opens: US and Israel have launched a major air campaign, hitting 2,000 targets in Iran over three days.
  • 550+ Iranians killed (per the Red Crescent).
• Iran retaliates aggressively, hitting every Arab Gulf country, as well as US and Israeli targets.
  • Explosions reported at US Air bases in Bahrain, Jordan, UAE ([00:53]).
  • Casualties in Israel and UAE ([01:04]).
• Suna Rasmussen: “Right now the Iranian regime is fighting for its survival. The US and Israel just killed the supreme leader… the regime is genuinely at risk of falling. So for them, this is an existential fight for its life.” ([01:11])

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2. Catalyst: Why Now? The Khamenei Strike

• [03:35] Mendoza: What triggered this moment?
• Suna Rasmussen: US had “lost patience” with nuclear negotiations and wanted Iran to “cease all enrichment of uranium.” ([03:42])
• Crucial intel: A rare gathering of Iranian leadership, including Khamenei, created a “window of opportunity.”
  • Israeli jets struck Khamenei’s compound in broad daylight. ([04:12])
  • Khamenei and top advisors killed in the strike.
  • High civilian cost: “Strikes also damaged residential buildings, medical facilities… hit an elementary school in southern Iran” — at least 148 dead. ([04:12])

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3. Khamenei's Legacy & Regime Dynamics

• Suna Rasmussen: Khamenei’s 37-year reign, from post-war isolation (1989) to modern military powerhouse; but regime is under “unprecedented pressure” from an alienated population. ([05:02])
• “This vision of an Islamic society… is a vision that has increasingly alienated Iranians, both because they think it is out of touch with modern times, but also because of… the violence.” ([05:56])
• Recap of December financial/protest crisis; regime crackdown killed thousands ([06:23]).
• Trump’s stance:
  • “Then I’ve canceled all meetings with the Iranian officials until the senseless killing of protesters stops… help is on its way.” ([06:40])
  • “When we are finished, take over your government, it will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.” ([06:59])

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4. Inside Iran: Could Uprising or Regime Change Happen?

• Will Iranians rise up?
  • Rasmussen: “No, not yet… As long as bombs keep raining… we shouldn’t expect Iranians to take matters into their own hands and immediately topple the Islamic system…” ([07:15])
  • Successful revolution needs:
    • A fracturing regime (not happening yet)
    • Organized opposition and a leader (lacking)
    • “[I] am not aware of any historical precedent where a regime has been toppled by airstrikes alone.” ([08:10])
• Who rules now?
  • Iran’s “system” is bigger than one man: Supreme Leader, parliament, government, military, IRGC—all “different power centers.” ([08:27])
  • Deep leadership built for “decapitation” scenarios; decision-making continues despite top-level losses. ([09:15])

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5. Iran’s Response and Regional Fallout

• [11:08] Iran is striking “hotels, ports and airports in Gulf Arab states,” oil/gas facilities (Saudi, UAE), killing/injuring civilians.
• Suna: “Iran’s response so far has been to go after countries in the Middle East that it perceives to be allied or helping the U.S.” ([11:23])
• Iran wants to make the war as “costly and politically untenable for President Trump as possible… The question is, how many American casualties will he accept before he’s forced to pull back?” ([11:35])
• US bases hit in Kuwait, Bahrain; Strait of Hormuz closed—major risk to global fuel markets. ([12:06])
• Notable incident: Kuwaiti anti-air defenses shot down 3 US fighter jets by mistake (no deaths), evidence of chaos/confusion ([12:40])
• “We don't know… UAE have said Iranian attacks are only hardening their resolve to fight back. So far that's rhetoric.” ([13:13])

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6. Escalation Risk: How Regional Could This Become?

• Less than 72 hours in, “still waiting to see how things shake out.” ([13:43])
• Suna: “We have Israel attacking Iran, and Iran fighting back and drawing in close to 10 Arab Gulf states… if Gulf countries decide to get properly involved… there would definitely be an escalation that we haven’t seen before.” ([13:59])
• Iraq, Lebanon, Syria all at risk for flare-ups, creating “a whole sort of belt of violence stretching from Tehran to the Mediterranean.” ([14:27])

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7. US Goals: Clarity or Quagmire?

• Trump: Operation in Iran “projected to last four to five weeks… we have capability to go far longer than that.” ([14:49])
• Mixed objectives:
  • Prevent Iran’s nuclear weapons
  • Destroy missile arsenal, navy
  • Stop support for terrorist groups
  • Sometimes hints at supporting regime change or returning to negotiations
• Suna: “It can be a little bit difficult to… posit past exactly what President Trump's goals here are… that’s also why some people are worried that the US is going to get dragged into another Middle Eastern quagmire.” ([15:21])
• Iran’s government refuses nuclear talks: “We will not negotiate with the United States.” ([16:01])

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8. Iran's Capacity for Resistance

• Despite losses, Iran maintains strong arsenal—missiles, drones, large forces. ([16:29])
  • “You can fight for a long time with drones… this is asymmetrical warfare. And this is something that Iran and its militia allies are very experienced in.”

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9. Historical Turning Point

• Suna Rasmussen: “This weekend has been the most significant turning point in Iranian history since the end of the brutal war with Iraq in the late 80s and maybe since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.” ([17:22])
• First-ever direct US military assault on the Islamic Republic; regime at greatest risk since its founding.
• “For the Iranian people, which has grown increasingly disillusioned with the Islamic Republic over the decades, this is the most tangible moment that they have seen… where they have some hope of fundamental change. So this is a huge moment for Iran.” ([18:32])

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Suna Rasmussen ([01:11]):
  “Right now, the Iranian regime is fighting for its survival. The US and Israel just killed the supreme leader… the regime is genuinely at risk of falling… this is an existential fight for its life.”

• Donald Trump ([06:59]):
  “When we are finished, take over your government, it will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.”

• Suna Rasmussen ([07:15]):
  “As long as bombs keep raining from the skies over Tehran, we shouldn’t expect Iranians to… immediately topple the Islamic system that has been in place for nearly 50 years.”

• Suna Rasmussen ([17:22]):
  “This weekend has been the most significant turning point in Iranian history since the end of the brutal war with Iraq in the late 80s and maybe since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.”

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Key Timestamps

• 00:05 — Episode launch: US/Israel airstrikes, Iranian retaliation
• 03:35–04:12 — Why the strikes happened: intelligence, nuclear dispute, Khamenei targeted
• 06:23–07:15 — Khamenei’s crackdown on protests, Trump’s rhetoric, public unrest
• 08:21–09:15 — How Iran’s regime works after decapitation
• 11:08–13:56 — Iran's regional strikes, economic chaos, Gulf state position
• 14:49–16:29 — Trump’s objectives and Iran’s resistance
• 17:14–18:32 — Assessing the moment’s historic weight

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Tone & Style

The episode is fast-paced, urgent, and analytical, with a heavy focus on recent, dramatic events, but seasoned with historical background. Suna Rasmussen’s commentary stands out for its depth and clarity, offering context, skepticism, and expert insight alongside on-the-ground reporting. The tone is serious, direct, and designed to give both immediate developments and long-term context.

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Conclusion

This episode captures a potential inflection point in the Middle East, exploring the ramifications of a seismic military operation and the uncertain future it yields for Iran, its people, the region, and US global strategy. For listeners, it’s an authoritative and vital account of one of the decade’s defining crises.

Transcript

[Jessica Mendoza]

It's almost three days into the US and Israel's massive military action against Iran, with 2,000 targets hit since the strikes began. So far, more than 550 Iranians have been killed, according to the humanitarian organization the Red Crescent. And Iran has hit back with force. Here's our colleague Suna Rasmussen.

[Suna Rasmussen]

Almost immediately after the attacks started over the weekend, we saw Iran responding by attacking Arab countries in the Gulf. In fact, they've attacked every single country in the Gulf. And many others in Israel took cover

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as air raid sirens rang out after Tehran vowed revenge for the killing of its supreme leader.

[News Reporter]

Explosions have so far been reported across several US Air bases in the region, including in Bahrain, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Several deaths have been reported after those Iranian strikes, including in Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

[Suna Rasmussen]

And I think that's to show both the US Israel, the world and to show the neighbors in the Middle east that if Iran is attacked, they want to show the countries in the region that they can't attack Iran without ramifications. If there's a long term, full blown war in Iran, that's obviously very dangerous for the Iranian people and if things escalate and Iranians rise up and then there is an increased risk for the Islamic Republic of being toppled. Right now, the Iranian regime is fighting for its survival. The US And Israel just killed the supreme leader and dozens of his military commanders and the regime is genuinely at risk of falling. So for them, this is an existential fight for his life.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Welcome to the Journal, our show about money, business and power. I'm Jessica Mendoza. It's Monday, March 2nd. Coming up on the show, war in the Middle east with Iran at the center.

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[Jessica Mendoza]

Why did the US and Israel choose this specific moment to strike. What was the catalyst that triggered this weekend's operation?

[Suna Rasmussen]

The US Wanted Iran to cease all enrichment of uranium. Iran says as a sovereign nation, it has the right to develop nuclear power for civilian purposes. But the nuclear program has always been a subject of controversy internationally, which is why they've been negotiating over it. The official reason Trump gave for attacking Iran was that he had lost patience with the ongoing negotiations and he didn't believe that Iran was moving or moving fast enough to give the concessions that

[Jessica Mendoza]

the US Wanted, according to Wall Street Journal reporting. Saturday in particular presented US And Israeli intelligence with a rare opportunity. Iranian military and political leaders were holding a meeting, one that included Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The US And Israel struck in full daylight with Israeli jets dropping a host of munitions on Khamenei's compound. Khamenei was killed in that strike, along with several top government and military advisors, according to Iranian state media. The strikes also damaged residential buildings, medical facilities, and also hit an elementary school in southern Iran, with a death toll of at least 148. With Khamenei's death, Iran has found itself in a moment of transition.

[Suna Rasmussen]

Eli Khamenei was in power for 37 years in Iran. He was the longest sitting Middle Eastern ruler by quite a distance. And he leaves behind an Iran that is much strong than when he took over. Like when he took over in 1989, Iran was emerging from a devastating eight year war with Iraq and a revolution that preceded it. So it was close to bankruptcy and it was recovering from a lot of violence. Through the 90s, he and his government managed to spur economic growth and over the decades, he turned Iran into a military power in the Middle east that his enemies really had to contend with. But Khamenei also leaves a regime that's under unprecedented pressure from its population. This vision of an Islamic society, an Islamic republic that Khamenei and his peers had after the 1979 revolution, that is a vision that has increasingly alienated Iranians, both because they think is out of touch with modern times, but also because of, frankly, the violence that the Islamic Republic has imposed on its own population and people who didn't support that vision in order to keep them in check. So he leaves behind an Islamic republic under pressure.

[Jessica Mendoza]

That pressure was on display in December when a financial crisis led to huge protests throughout the country. Khamenei's security forces responded with a brutal crackdown, killing thousands of Iranian citizens. At the time, President Trump threatened to take action against the government.

[Donald Trump]

Then I've canceled all meetings with the Iranian officials until the senseless killing of protesters stops. And all I say to them is help is on its way. You saw that I put.

[Jessica Mendoza]

After this weekend's strikes began, Trump posted videos telling the Iranian people that this moment is their once in a generation chance to take down the regime.

[Donald Trump]

When we are finished, take over your government, it will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Suna, is there a sense that Iranians are gearing up for a popular uprising against the regime?

[Suna Rasmussen]

No, not yet. I don't think we should expect that. As long as bombs keep raining from the skies over Tehran, we shouldn't expect Iranians to take matters into their own hands and immediately topple the Islamic system that has been in place for nearly 50 years. To have a successful revolution, you need several things. But two things that you historically have needed is on the one side, you need a regime that's fracturing and weakening with defections, things like that. We haven't seen that in Iran, even during the worst protest or the worst crackdown on protesters here in January. And then on the other side, you need an opposition that is organized behind a common goal, which they have in this case, but also with a leader. And in the case of Iran, they might also need weapons. And we haven't seen any signs of, of those two things coming to bear yet in Iran. I'm not aware of any historical precedent where a regime has been toppled by airstrikes alone.

[Jessica Mendoza]

So if regime change isn't likely, what does Iran's government look like right now? Like, who's in charge?

[Suna Rasmussen]

So when we talk about the Iranian regime or the system, the Islamic system, it's important to understand that that's both. The supreme leader, it's government, it's parliamentary, is military, and in the military you have the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the irgc. So there's a lot of different power centers in what we call the regime. Like the entire Islamic system remains. Still, the Iranian leadership has always known that if too much power and authority was concentrated in one person or even a dozen people, that would make it vulnerable to decapitation. And that's what we see now.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Already. The Iranian government has begun the succession process to find a new leader to replace Khamenei.

[Suna Rasmussen]

In these American Israeli strikes, dozens of important and high ranking military commanders have been killed, political officials as well. And decision making in Iran doesn't really seem to have slowed down. Like, I'm not suggesting here that the killing of Khamenei is not going to change Iran. It definitely will. But as we can see in the way that Iran immediately retaliated to these attacks and continues to do so, there are a lot of people who know what to do in a situation like this and are involved in decision making.

[Jessica Mendoza]

What Iran's response could mean for the rest of the Middle east is up next. Foreign.

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[Jessica Mendoza]

In its efforts to retaliate, Iran has targeted hotels, ports and airports in the Gulf Arab states. It struck oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia and in the uae. It killed three people and injured dozens of

[Suna Rasmussen]

so Iran's response so far has been to go after countries in the Middle east that it perceives to be allied or helping the U.S. suna, what

[Jessica Mendoza]

is Iran's strategy here?

[Suna Rasmussen]

I think from an Iranian perspective, they also want to make it as costly and politically untenable for President Trump as possible to continue this war. And President Trump has insisted always that he is not going to drag the US into another forever war in the Middle east or anywhere else. So the question is, how many American casualties will he accept or will the American people accept before he's forced to pull back?

[Jessica Mendoza]

Iran has also hit US military facilities in Kuwait and the US Navy's 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. Six American service members have been killed as of Monday afternoon. In addition, Iran has closed off the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key transit line for global fuel. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would set fire to any ship coming through, and shutting the strait down could have a significant impact on the world economy. What impact has Iran's strategy had so far?

[Suna Rasmussen]

So the Iranian attacks are not only imposing a cost on the reputation and the economies of the Gulf states. They're also creating confusion and panic and fear in countries that are not used to being directly involved in war. In Kuwait today, we saw Kuwaiti anti air defenses mistakenly shoot down three American fighter jets like no American soldiers were killed. But these are the kind of incidents that we could definitely see more of in a war like this. I think the Iranians will hope that the governments of the Gulf states will also have a limited patience with this kind of damage. We don't know in the uae, the United Arab Emirates have said that the Iranian attacks are only hardening their resolves to fight back. So far that's rhetoric. And I think the Iranians will hope that they will pull their support for this war sooner rather than later.

[Jessica Mendoza]

So it sounds like it's not clear yet whether this sort of pressure tactic is necessarily working. At the moment.

[Suna Rasmussen]

No, I think we're still waiting to see how things shake out. But we're only, what, less than 72 hours into this fighting and a lot can happen in the next couple of days.

[Jessica Mendoza]

How likely is a regional war?

[Suna Rasmussen]

What does that mean, a regional war? Right now we have Israel attacking Iran and Iran fighting back and drawing in close to 10 Arab Gulf states. The question is, of course, if countries in the Gulf decide to get properly involved in this war to retaliate against Iran, there would definitely be an escalation that we haven't seen before because the Gulf countries have traditionally stood outside armed conflict in the region. We could also see violence flare up in Iraq. Lebanon could flare up. We also have a very fragile new government in Syria. So if violence flares up there, then all of a sudden we have a whole sort of belt of violence stretching from Tehran to the Mediterranean. So things, there's definitely space for things to escalate.

[Jessica Mendoza]

In remarks at the White House today, Trump said that the U.S. operation in Iran is projected to last four to five weeks, adding, quote, we have capability to go far longer than that. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said the US Was adding forces in the Middle east to support US Operations in Iran. Can you talk about the ultimate objective of this campaign? I mean, is it ending Iran's nuclear program? Is it regime change? Is it something else? What is the US Waiting for?

[Suna Rasmussen]

It can be a little bit difficult to posit past exactly what President Trump's goals here are, because he's sending mixed messages. He said that he wants to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. And he also wants to take out Iran's missile arsenal. But then sometimes he also says that he wants the Iranians to rise up and take over their own government. And he's even indicated that he's willing to resume negotiations with the Iranian government. So it's a little unclear for me what the objectives here are. And that of course, also, that's also why some people are worried that the US Is going to get dragged into another Middle Eastern quagmire.

[Jessica Mendoza]

Iran's chief of security said Tehran won't resume nuclear talks, writing on social media, quote, we will not negotiate with the United States. Trump also said today the US has four goals in Iran. To destroy Iran's missile capabilities, to take out its navy, to prevent the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon, and to stop Iran from supporting terrorist groups outside its borders. How long can Iran actually withstand this kind of bombing campaign?

[Suna Rasmussen]

I mean, that's a good question. Iran's anti air defenses were damaged last year and the year before in Israeli attacks and in American attacks. But Iran still has a significant missile arsenal. It still has large armed forces. It's got a lot of drones. And you can fight for a long time with drones. So they can send these drones in swarms over the Gulf states and continue to exact the price from them if they want to. And I think they can do that for a long time. Iran is, this is in a sense, asymmetrical warfare. And this is something that Iran and its militia allies are very experienced in.

[Jessica Mendoza]

What does this moment represent in Iran's history? How much of a turning point is this for the country?

[Suna Rasmussen]

This weekend has been the most significant turning point in Iranian history since the end of the brutal war with Iraq in the late 80s and maybe since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. This is the first time we've seen the US Attack the Islamic Republic militarily like this. And this is the greatest danger to the Islamic Republic since the war with Iraq ended and possibly since it was founded. And once the dust settles, if the regime survives, it'll have a huge task on its hands, both in terms of rebuilding the country, reasserting authority, but also figuring out what does governance look like in the Islamic Republic without Ayatollahi Khamenei, who had been in power for 37 years and is only the second supreme leader that the country has had. For the Iranian people, which has grown increasingly disillusioned with the Islamic Republic over the decades, this is the most tangible moment that they have seen during the existence of the Islamic Republic where they have some hope of fundamental change. So this is a huge moment for Iran.

[Jessica Mendoza]

That's all for today, Monday, March 2nd. The Journal is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. If you like our show, follow us on Spotify or wherever you get your Podcasts were out every weekday afternoon. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.

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