Escalation, Episode Five: Resets

Summary

The Lawfare Podcast: Escalation, Episode Five – Resets

Release Date: June 5, 2025

Overview

In Episode Five of the "Escalation" series titled "Resets," hosted by Tyler McBrien and Anastasia Lapatina from The Lawfare Institute, the podcast delves deep into the tumultuous history of U.S.-Ukrainian relations. The episode meticulously traces the trajectory from Ukraine's independence to the volatile present-day scenario, highlighting pivotal moments such as the Obama administration's Russia "reset" policy, the Euromaidan protests, and Russia's annexation of Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Through insightful interviews with experts like Michael McFaul and firsthand accounts from Ukrainian activists, the episode offers a comprehensive analysis of the geopolitical tensions shaping the region.

---

1. The Obama Administration's Russia Reset Policy

The episode opens with a critical examination of the Obama administration's attempt to "reset" relations with Russia. This policy aimed to move past the Cold War-era hostilities by fostering cooperation on shared strategic interests, including nuclear disarmament and counterterrorism.

Notable Insights:

• Michael McFaul, a leading Russia expert and former ambassador, reflects on the reset's intentions and shortcomings:

  "[...] the reset was about very concrete American national security interests. And I'm going to say that word again. American national security interests."
  [12:57]

• McFaul candidly acknowledges the policy's failure to deter President Putin:

  "We failed to deter Putin." [14:02]

• The discussion highlights the misjudgment of Russia's long-term strategic objectives, contrasting American short-term diplomatic efforts with Russia's sustained geopolitical ambitions.

2. Ukraine's Political Turmoil and the Euromaidan Protests

Anastasia Lapatina provides a chronological account of Ukraine's internal struggles, focusing on the dichotomy between pro-Western and pro-Russian factions. The narrative underscores how political instability paved the way for external interventions.

Key Events:

• The Orange Revolution (2004-2005): Initiated by Viktor Yushchenko's pro-Western platform, aiming to combat corruption and enhance ties with Europe.

  "Viktor Yushchenko won the presidential election on a platform of fighting corruption and growing Ukraine's relationship with the West."
  [18:17]

• Rise of Viktor Yanukovych (2010): Yanukovych's ascent, backed by Russia, marked a significant pivot back towards Moscow's influence.

  "Yanukovych starts pulling Ukraine back into Russia's orbit." [20:02]

• Euromaidan Protests (2013-2014): Triggered by Yanukovych's abrupt decision to suspend the EU association agreement, leading to massive protests and eventual regime change.

  "The signing of the association agreement with the European Union was of such tremendous symbolic value for the Ukrainian society that it was enough to ignite a protest in Kyiv."
  [22:40]

Notable Quotes:

• Hillary Clinton comments on the brutal crackdown during Euromaidan:

  "And Viktor Yanukovych, who is guilty of [...] he has the blood of our children."
  [25:18]

• Michael McFaul reflects on the aftermath:

  "We failed at that. Let's be clear. Like, we failed to deter Putin."
  [14:02]

3. Russia's Annexation of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine

The podcast delves into Russia's strategic moves post-Euromaidan, particularly the annexation of Crimea and the subsequent conflict in the Donbass region.

Key Developments:

• Annexation of Crimea (2014): Russian forces, referred to as "little green men," seamlessly took control, leading to international condemnation but limited immediate repercussions.

  "The soldiers have since been dubbed the little green men for the color of their uniforms."
  [36:05]

• Conflict in Donbass: Pro-Russian separatists, with covert Russian support, engaged in prolonged battles against Ukrainian forces, leading to significant territorial losses for Ukraine.

  "Thousands of soldiers without any insignia show up on Ukrainian territory, raiding government buildings, military bases and barracks."
  [34:05]

Personal Accounts:

• Lutviya Zudeeva, a Crimean Tatar activist, shares her harrowing experiences under Russian occupation:

  "During these 10 years, Crimea has gathered a whole list of so-called political prisoners."
  [06:36]

  "He broke into search. They jumped over the fence and started knocking loudly on the door."
  [07:25]

4. International Response and the Budapest Memorandum

The episode critically assesses the international community's response to Russia's aggression, particularly focusing on the Budapest Memorandum's role and limitations.

Insights:

• Budapest Memorandum (1994): Ukraine relinquished its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances from the U.S., Russia, and the U.K. However, these assurances were largely symbolic, leading to debates over their enforceability.

  "The Budapest Memorandum was created for this exact moment. And so when Russia invades Crimea, Ukrainians ask, what about that memorandum?"
  [37:45]

• U.S. and Western Actions: While the West condemned Russia's actions and imposed sanctions, tangible support to Ukraine remained constrained due to the initial assurances' non-binding nature.

  "The west only provides assurances, not guarantees."
  [38:34]

5. Ukrainian Resistance and the Stalled Conflict

Despite inadequate international support, Ukrainians mobilized to defend their sovereignty. Volunteer battalions and the Ukrainian military engaged in fierce combat, albeit facing resource shortages against a superior Russian force.

Key Points:

• Volunteer Battalions: Comprised of veterans and Euromaidan activists, these groups played a crucial role in reclaiming territories despite limited equipment.

  "Thousands of Ukrainians, some veterans, some Euromaidan activists, form volunteer battalions and join the military to fight against Russia in Donbass." [47:05]

• Stalled Frontlines: Persistent ceasefires and continuous battles led to a frozen conflict by late 2015, with significant portions of Ukrainian territory under Russian control.

  "The frontline largely freezes. By late 2015, around 12% of Ukrainian territory is left under Russian occupation." [48:42]

6. Expert Analysis and Reflections

Throughout the episode, experts like Michael McFaul provide critical reflections on policy missteps and the broader geopolitical implications.

Notable Reflections:

• Policy Miscalculations: McFaul emphasizes the short-sightedness of the reset policy and the underestimation of Russia's long-term strategies.

  "We should have been more aggressive."
  [14:33]

• Strategic Interests: The focus on specific U.S. national security interests at the expense of broader regional stability contributed to the escalation.

  "Each of those objectives was a success at the time. But I have to think, where does this leave my country?"
  [13:31]

7. Perspectives from Ukrainian Activists

Personal stories from activists like Sasha Khribyat and Lutviya Zudeeva humanize the geopolitical narrative, illustrating the profound impact on individuals and communities.

Personal Accounts:

• Sasha Khribyat recounts the onset of the Donbass conflict and the ensuing chaos:

  "I woke up to the sounds of fighter jets and helicopters flying above my home."
  [44:35]

• Lutviya Zudeeva highlights the ongoing repression and the resilience of the Crimean Tatars:

  "Even when some lived in Tajikistan or Uzbekistan, we heard our grandparents talking about how we would return to Crimea."
  [08:17]

---

Conclusion

"Resets" offers a nuanced exploration of the intricate and often fraught relationship between the United States, Ukraine, and Russia. By weaving together expert analysis, historical context, and personal testimonies, the episode underscores the complexities of international diplomacy, the consequences of policy decisions, and the enduring spirit of those striving for national sovereignty. As geopolitical landscapes continue to evolve, the insights garnered from this episode remain invaluable for understanding the ongoing conflict and the path forward for Ukraine and its allies.

---

This summary is based on the transcript provided and aims to encapsulate the key discussions, insights, and narratives presented in Episode Five of the "Escalation" series on The Lawfare Podcast.

Transcript

[Benjamin Wittes]

The following podcast contains advertising to access an ad free version of the Lawfare Podcast. Become a material supporter of [e-mail] lawfare that's patreon.com lawfair also check out Lawfare's other podcast offerings, Rational Security Chatter, Lawfare, no Bull and the Aftermath.

[Tyler McBrien]

It's the Lawfare podcast. I'm Tyler McBrien, managing editor of Lawfare, and this afternoon we're continuing to bring you a little something extra on top of our daily Lawfare podcast episodes. Today it's episode five of Escalation, our latest narrative series that I co hosted with Lawfare's Ukraine fellow, Anastasia Lapatina. Throughout the show, Nasti and I trace the history of US Ukrainian relations from the time of Ukrainian independence through the present. You can listen to Escalation in its entirety as well as our other narrative series on our Lawfare Presents channel. Wherever you get your podcasts. In episode five, Ukraine's Russia backed president refuses to sign a deal with the European Union and millions of Ukrainians take to the streets to force him out. Then the west watches as Russia invades Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine. This is Escalation. Episode 5 resets.

[Benjamin Wittes]

Escalation is presented by Deleteme, the industry leader in personal data removal. Deleteme is trusted by 20% of the Fortune 500 and by federal, state and county courts across the state United States. For more information on Delete Me and its services for individuals and businesses, go to joindeleteme.com escalation.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

Previously on Escalation. All the intimidation of voters, all like the dirty campaign was made by Yanukovych and people who supported him. And behind all that was the Kremlin.

[Benjamin Wittes]

Opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko was pushing poisoned during the campaign. You had a stolen election and then.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

Ukrainians simply wouldn't take it. This week our alliance must also decide how to respond to the request by.

[Benjamin Wittes]

Georgia and Ukraine to participate in NATO's Membership Action Plan.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

NATO will say that Ukraine and Georgia will become members, but won't actually do anything to implement it. The worst of all possible worlds.

[Michael McFaul]

President Bush has told Russian leaders that military action against Georgia is unacceptable.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

I flew to Washington to explain that we would be next. For a lot of Americans, the war between Russia and Ukraine seemed to start just a few years ago in 2022. But that's not accurate. Ukrainians have been living with this war for much, much longer. Okay, can you still hear me? Yes. You can hear the mic working, right?

[Benjamin Wittes]

Yes.

[Tyler McBrien]

Yeah, yeah.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

You sound cool. Perfect. I'm in Kyiv getting ready for an interview. It's 5am for our producer Max, who's in DC.

[Tyler McBrien]

Who are we talking to today? Who are we talking to?

[Anastasia Lapatina]

We're talking to Lutvi Azudeva. So she's very prominent Crimean Tatar activist. She's currently in Crimea. This war actually started more than a decade ago, in 2014, when Russia invaded eastern and southern Ukraine. Back then, the Kremlin annexed Crimea, a Ukrainian peninsula that sits on the Black Sea. It is the only home for its indigenous population, Crimean Tatars. They've lived there for more than 300 years, long before the Russians ever set foot there. But that hasn't stopped Moscow from threatening and claiming Crimea over and over again. Since the occupation, life on the peninsula has changed dramatically in all the worst ways. The locals routinely get arrested, tortured and jailed from for speaking out against the Kremlin. Russia has also been forcefully drafting the locals to fight in its full scale war, pinning local Ukrainians against their own people. Our guest, ltvi Yezudiyeva is in Crimea right now, living under Russian occupation. But.

[Tyler McBrien]

So your source today is comfortable with this, is still willing to talk despite the circumstances?

[Anastasia Lapatina]

Yeah, I mean I did tell her what this is for and how this is going to go and the topics and she was fine. I mean, but she also mentioned that she said that she couldn't talk about the full scale invasion.

[Tyler McBrien]

Yeah, that's why I asked. I mean, last thing I want to do is put her in any sort of position.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

Historically, Crimean Tatars have faced some of the worst treatment at the hands of Russian imperialism. In 1944, Joseph Stalin deported the entire Crimean Tatar population from Crimea. That's hundreds of thousands of people killing nearly half of them in the process. They've spent the decade since returning to their home and fighting to keep it. So we're obviously a bit anxious about this interview. We don't want Lutviya to get in trouble for talking to us. But once we're ready, we call her on the phone. I tell Lutfiye that we don't have to use her name or real voice if she doesn't feel comfortable. She says she doesn't mind the publicity and as long as we don't talk about the full scale invasion. The Russians have recently made it a crime to criticize the Russian army. So I ask her instead what life has been like under Russian occupation.

[Lutviya Zudeeva]

During these 10 years, Crimea has gathered a whole list of so called political prisoners. We call them political prisoners because these are not people who are arrested for crimes or criminality of Any kind of these are people who are persecuted for their political civic position.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

The Crimean Tatar population is majority Muslim and pro Ukrainian, making them an easy target for the Russian regime. Their homes are routinely raided. Men get arrested on bogus charges of terrorism and sent to faraway Russian prisons for decades. In February of 2024, 20 armed Russian operatives even showed up at Lutviye's home, accusing her of abusing media freedoms, whatever that meant.

[Lutviya Zudeeva]

He broke into search. They jumped over the fence and started knocking loudly on the door. Our kids are awake. We opened the door for the authorities almost immediately, just so they wouldn't break our doors and windows.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

These violent raids have become a regular part of life for Crimean Tatars, Russia's attempt to intimidate them into complete submission. Lutviya herself has been arrested and fined several times before, once for a Facebook post. So I asked Lutviye, a bit of a naive after all of this brutality of the Russian regime, why don't the Crimean Tatars just leave the peninsula?

[Lutviya Zudeeva]

Even when some lived in Tajikistan or Uzbekistan, we heard our grandparents talking about how we would return to Crimea, how we would return home from which our loved ones were deported. This is one of the reasons why people don't leave, because this struggle has been very long and has come at a very high price.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

From lawfare and goat rodeo. This is Escalation, a podcast about the United States and Ukraine. I'm Anastasia Lopatyna.

[Tyler McBrien]

And I'm Tyler McBrien.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

This is episode five resets.

[Tyler McBrien]

It's March 6th, 2009, a gloomy Friday night in the city of Geneva in Switzerland. It's been roughly a year since the disastrous NATO summit in Bucharest and the Russian invasion of Georgia. Shortly after, US President George W. Bush is out and Barack Obama has just been sworn in as President.

[Michael McFaul]

It's been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this day in this election, at this defining moment, change has come to America.

[Tyler McBrien]

President Obama ran on the promise of hope and change, and that means changing America's foreign policy too. The era of hostility between the US and Russia is supposed to be over, and new US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is sent to Geneva to deliver that message. It's Clinton's first one on one with her Russian counterpart, Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

Sergey, in anticipation of this important meeting.

[Michael McFaul]

And our time here together, I wanted.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

To present you with a little gift which represents what President Obama and Vice President Biden and I have been saying.

[Tyler McBrien]

Clinton hands Lavrov the gift, a yellow button with the word reset engraved on it.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

We want to reset our relationship.

[Michael McFaul]

Let's do it together. So we will do it together.

[Hillary Clinton]

Okay?

[Tyler McBrien]

They press on the reset button together and smile for the cameras. But there is a problem. The button has a second word on it. An attempt at the Russian translation of the word reset.

[Michael McFaul]

We worked hard to get the right Russian word.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

Do you think we got it? You get it wrong. I. I got it wrong.

[Hillary Clinton]

It should be Pereza Gruska.

[Michael McFaul]

And this says peregruska, which means overcharged.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

Well, we won't let you do that to us.

[Hillary Clinton]

I promise.

[Tyler McBrien]

Okay. Overcharge. Quite a Freudian slip, isn't it? The Obama administration's Russia reset policy is based around the idea that Moscow and Washington can start over, leave the tensions behind, and become strategic partners. Even though Russia has just invaded Georgia, President Obama wants the Kremlin's help. He's focused on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

[Michael McFaul]

Governor Romney, I'm glad that you recognize that Al Qaeda is a threat, because a few months ago, when you were asked, what's the biggest geopolitical threat facing America, you said Russia, not Al Qaeda. You said Russia in the 1980s. Are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back because the Cold War has been over for 20 years.

[Tyler McBrien]

The brain behind this reset is Michael McFaul, who is Obama's go to Russia expert. McFaul serves on the National Security Council before becoming ambassador to Russia in 2011.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

We've been planning this interview with him for months. And in a lot of ways, Michael McFaul seemed like the exact kind of person who normally frustrates me. American Russia experts, who, to a lot of Ukrainians, seem so naive about the Kremlin and its relationship with the West. So going in, I thought this interview with McFall might be a bit tense. I was nervously prepping for it right up to the very end. It's just tough. And I'm, like, struggling with figuring out how to ask this without sounding, like, straight up rude. How do I ask you whether you think you just misjudged the whole situation? Like, you know. But when McFall finally joined her call, the interview was nothing like what we.

[Michael McFaul]

Expected when we came into the government in 2009. The reset was about very concrete American national security interests. And I'm going to say that word again. American national security interests.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

McFaul tells us that the Obama administration has several specific foreign policy goals that it wants to achieve, and in each instance, they need Russia's help. Among them is cutting down on the number of nuclear weapons and building up international troop numbers in Afghanistan.

[Michael McFaul]

We thought we could better obtain our national security interest through interaction with Russia than not.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

And to be fair, each of those objectives was a success at the time. But I have to think, where does this leave my country? Right. Remember, at the time of the reset, Russia has just invaded Georgia, and Ukraine is worried that it will be next. And that's where McFaul says the policy didn't work out at all as he expected.

[Michael McFaul]

At the same time, I had the idea that we should engage the Russian state and the Russian government and we should not sell out the Georgians or Ukrainians in doing so. And we failed at that. Let's be clear. Like, we failed to deter Putin.

[Tyler McBrien]

Nassi and I are both surprised by this. McFall is really easy to talk to. He kind of reminds me of a youth basketball coach. So when he starts being so frank and blunt, it catches us off guard.

[Michael McFaul]

There was this worry about poking the bear, and, you know, it would exacerbate tensions. But I think that was a mistake. I really do. I think over time, it was a mistake. We should have been more aggressive.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

McFaul would go on to spend a few years in Russia when he became ambassador, where he worked with the Russians on the few areas of strategic interest. He says he remembers one eerie conversation he had toward the end of his tenure. It was with one deputy prime minister in Russia.

[Michael McFaul]

And he said two things. He said, mike, we care more about Ukraine than you do. He said, we're willing to pay whatever it takes to keep Ukraine in our orbit. You guys are not. And then the second thing he said, and I just. I think about this, this is literally a decade ago. He said, you Americans, you have really short attention spans. You don't think in. In terms of decades and centuries and so on. Ukraine, we're going to prevail. You're.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

We'll be back after the break.

[Benjamin Wittes]

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[Anastasia Lapatina]

We're back.

[Tyler McBrien]

So Washington wants yet another new chapter with Moscow. While the Kremlin plays the long game, Putin is trying to reassert control in the nearby states. Ukraine is stuck between these two powers in a political identity crisis of its own. In 2005, during the Orange Revolution, Viktor Yushchenko wins the presidential election on a platform of fighting corruption and growing Ukraine's relationship with the West.

[Yevan Klibovitsky]

So the Orange Revolution and the Yanukovych victory took stage at the time when Ukraine was kind of a 50, 50 country.

[Tyler McBrien]

That's Ukrainian political scientist Yevan Klibovitsky. He says that over the years, Yushchenko's presidency falls apart over accusations of corruption and political infighting.

[Yevan Klibovitsky]

So first the pendulum swung in the pro Western direction. And then after certain reforms and the profound effects of the financial crisis of 2008, the pendulum went into the opposite direction.

[Tyler McBrien]

Remember the other victor, Viktor Yanukovych? That's the Russian backed candidate that the Kremlin tried to make Ukraine's president in 2004. The loss was embarrassing for Yanukovych, the Ukrainian oligarchs who backed him, and especially for Russia. But they didn't give up. In 2006, Yanukovych's party wins the biggest share of seats in the Ukrainian parliament. Then in 2010, Yanukovych runs another extremely divisive and dirty campaign with help from the Kremlin. And this time he wins.

[Yevan Klibovitsky]

He grasped power instantly, very fast, by breaking the parliamentary procedures. And he was going agency after agency, ministry after ministry, and eventually he got all of the appointees that he was expecting to have in place. And it took him probably about three months. This is like Project 2025 that worked.

[Tyler McBrien]

And once in power, Yanukovych starts pulling Ukraine back into Russia's orbit.

[Yevan Klibovitsky]

Ukraine lost control over a number of agencies in Ukrainian government. For instance, the secret service, the intelligence, parts of the military were controlled by people who were directly sent from Moscow, basically decomposing the Ukrainian ability to resist.

[Tyler McBrien]

The government becomes packed with Russian agents. The media is censored, Ukrainian cultural initiatives are neglected or outright destroyed. Ukraine is backsliding into an autocratic state like Russia once again.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

But when it comes to Ukraine's foreign policy, it gets complicated. The two big components of that are Ukraine's relationship with NATO and the European Union. NATO is a non starter. Yanukovych reverses that effort almost immediately. But work with Europe persists. And by 2013, Ukraine is set to sign this big EU association agreement. This agreement has all sorts of closer trade with the EU reforms, enhanced cooperation, and this is what a lot of Western minded young Ukrainians want. And at first, Yukovych doesn't oppose it. He thinks that trading with Europe can benefit his oligarch friends and help him stay in power.

[Yevan Klibovitsky]

So it was not a game that was completely going in the Russian direction. And then eventually he got to the moment of truth where he had to make a choice.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

The Kremlin is adamant that Yanukovych cannot sign it. As always, Moscow wants Ukraine to stay in its orbit. So it starts trying to tank the Ukrainian economy, forcing Kyiv to get in line. In November of 2013, Yanukovych heads to Europe, poised to sign the agreement. But at the last second, he changes his mind. A last minute about turn in Ukraine has seen the government suspend a trade pact with the European Union just a.

[Lutviya Zudeeva]

Week before it was set to be signed.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

It comes after months of negotiations between Kiev and Brussels. But the government has now issued an order calling off parliamentary votes on the deal, saying it will renew active dialogue with Russia. Shame, shame. Chant Some of the opposition parties, including jailed former Prime Minister Yulia.

[Yevan Klibovitsky]

What Yanukovych did not understand was that the signing of the association agreement with the European Union was of such tremendous symbolic value for the Ukrainian society that it was enough to ignite a protest in Kyiv.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

Ten years after the orange Revolution. Ukrainian protesters go back to Kyiv's main square. They demand that Yanukovych sign the EU agreement. But this protest is going to be a lot more violent.

[Hillary Clinton]

Several hundred pro European protesters remained in Kiev's Independence Square when riot police moved in Saturday.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

It's the middle of the night on November 30, 2013, less than 24 hours after Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign the association agreement with Europe. It's dark and cold, but a few hundred students are still gathered on Kyiv's Independence Square, which we call Maidan. There are about 400 of them, young, idealistic, mad at Yanukovych for everything he has done over the years, but most importantly, for taking away their European dream. They're singing songs, dancing, wrapped in Ukrainian and European flags. And then thousands of riot police start moving towards them. The boys encircle the girls to try and protect them. They start singing Ukraine's national anthem, holding hands as swarms of uniforms are approaching. It's roughly 4 in the morning when the government's men. I don't know how else to put it, start beating the shit out of those kids.

[Hillary Clinton]

Ambulances treated dozens of injured demonstrators, mostly with wounds to the head and arms. The protesters say the police moved in unprovoked and attacked them with batons, stun grenades and tear gas.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

That night becomes a wake up call for millions all across Ukraine. He has the blood of our children.

[Michael McFaul]

The blood of students, the blood of youth on his hands, and he has to be held responsible for it.

[Benjamin Wittes]

It was his order.

[Hillary Clinton]

And Viktor Yanukovych, who is guilty of.

[Michael McFaul]

This, will be forced to resign us.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

We'll be back after the break.

[Benjamin Wittes]

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[Anastasia Lapatina]

We're back.

[Hillary Clinton]

You know, when his thugs went out there and beat up kids, it got a lot of Ukrainian, sort of middle class business owners, grandparents, schoolteachers, mechanics, everyone out to the streets to say, you know, enough is enough.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

That's Eric Chermela at the time. He is an analyst working at the Ukraine desk at the Central Intelligence Agency. And from Washington, he watches Yanukovych's regime crack down on protesters at Maidan. But that crackdown backfires over the next few weeks. Millions of Ukrainians flock to Maidan, setting up an organized encampment. There are rows of tents with field kitchens, medical points, heating and IT stations where you could warm up or charge your phone. The encampment is protected by barricades made of heaps of snow and whatever chunks of metal and wood the protesters managed to get. The revolution is gaining traction, but Yanukovych does not back down. New laws virtually ban all forms of peaceful protest. That's led to accusations that President Viktor Yanukovych is turning the country into a dictatorship and a police state. Riot police keep trying to clear the protesters out and clashes get more violent day after day. On January 22, the first protesters are killed by police.

[Hillary Clinton]

Police stormed the demonstrators barricades near Independence Square Wednesday morning. They were met with rocks and Molotov cocktails. Witnesses claim two demonstrators were shot dead by police. Biden, who was vice president at the time, he was on the phone with Yanukovych all the time. I mean, every few days saying, you know, you really need to find some sort of way to work things out with the opposition. And, you know, it was like talking to a wall. I mean, Yanukovych was just not interested in hearing that.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

So there is Yanukovych, an autocrat backed by the Russians who refuses to sign a deal with the eu. There are millions of People on the Maidan who want him out. But there are also a bunch of Ukrainian politicians who support the revolution. And they are the ones that the American diplomats are talking to. They are the self imposed leaders of the movement which is dubbed Yuromaidan.

[Hillary Clinton]

And the opposition at some point was really calling for, you need to support us as we try to overthrow Yanukovych in the United States. Said, well, wait a second, what's your basis for doing that? Especially when Yanukovych was legitimately elected in a democratic election and he was still within his constitutional term limit and all of that. So there was no real basis to kind of call for any regime change.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

As always, the US wants to de escalate as soon as possible, diffuse the tensions, figure out some sort of power sharing agreement between Yanukovych and the opposition. Meanwhile, the violence in Maidan is getting worse. Snipers with live ammunition are now on rooftops around the square. On February 20, nearly 50 protesters are killed in a single day, some shot in the head and chest. The death toll eventually reaches almost 100 people. We call them the heavenly hundred. That's when the European Union sent a delegation to Kyiv for a last ditch effort to stop the bloodshed. They broker a deal which says that Yanukovych will stay president until new elections are held by the end of the year.

[Hillary Clinton]

The opposition leaders took the agreement to the Maidan and got on stage and said, this is what we agreed with Yanukovych. It's not a perfect deal, but this is what we need to do in order for Ukraine not to go into the abyss and in order for us to maintain international support and so on and so forth. And the crowd just booed. I think that was the moment when I thought, like, this is not going to stick.

[Tyler McBrien]

The people refuse to accept a deal that keeps Yanukovych in power. So one of the protesters gets on the stage and issues an ultimatum. If Yanukovych doesn't resign by 10 the next morning, the protesters will pick up arms and storm the government quarter. As night falls in Kyiv, violence feels imminent as the world waits for Yanukovych's response.

[Hillary Clinton]

And you know, come Saturday morning, it looked like the Yanukovych regime had like completely vanished.

[Tyler McBrien]

By the next morning, President Yanukovych is gone. Police have abandoned their posts across the capitol.

[Hillary Clinton]

Biden tried to call several times to basically ask him, what the fuck is going on? Where are you? And there was no one on the other line. There were no security forces guarding the buildings to the point where the protesters themselves were guarding the buildings to avoid any kind of looting or mischief or anything like that.

[Tyler McBrien]

No one knows where the president of Ukraine is. The CIA is trying and failing to track Yanukovych. And Eric has the tough task of briefing the CIA director, John Brennan, as he prepares for an emergency meeting at the White House.

[Hillary Clinton]

And he was just completely dumbfounded and like, what the hell is going on? Can you tell me, where is the president of Ukraine? Who is in charge? What are the Russians doing? And we didn't have good answers. I mean, it was all moving at light speed.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

That last question, what are the Russians doing? Gets extremely important right after Yanukovych runs away, because what the Russians are doing is preparing to take advantage of all of that chaos that he left behind. Almost a week later, President Yanukovych finally emerges from Russia. The Kremlin had helped him flee Ukraine.

[Benjamin Wittes]

I intend to continue the fight for.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

The future of Ukraine against those who are trying to sedate it with fear.

[Benjamin Wittes]

And terror.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

In Ukraine, Yanukovych's message falls on deaf ears. The parliament quickly votes to remove him from office, and by the end of February, it is scrambling to restore order. The country needs a president, a prime minister, and a functioning cabinet. And in the shadows of all of that chaos, something terrible starts brewing on the Crimean Peninsula. Putin has been watching Ukraine drift toward the west for years, and Yanukovych's ouster is the last straw. In late February, thousands of soldiers without any insignia show up on Ukrainian territory, raiding government buildings, military bases and barracks. They spread throughout Crimea and take over military installations along the Black Sea.

[Michael McFaul]

Armored Russian vehicles burst through the wall.

[Hillary Clinton]

Of Crimea's Belbek base today, firing warning.

[Tyler McBrien]

Shots and throwing sound grenades.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

Ukrainian forces have set up a perimeter, but it's clear that we are completely.

[Tyler McBrien]

Surrounded by Russian forces.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

Crimean Tatar activist Lutviya Zudeeva, who you heard from at the top of the episode, sees the invasion unfold up close. At the time, Lutviya is pregnant and sees the Russians for the first time from the window of her maternity hospital.

[Lutviya Zudeeva]

The first military equipment appeared on the streets of Crimean cities. And the maternity hospital I was in was surrounded, surrounded by people who at that time did not call themselves regular troops of the Russian Federation.

[Tyler McBrien]

The soldiers have since been dubbed the little green men for the color of their uniforms. They pretend like they have nothing to do with Russia. But as they barricade the local parliament, pro Russian lawmakers oust the legitimate government.

[Lutviya Zudeeva]

In the first days, of course, there was shock and there was hope that the situation would turn around. But the thing is, part of the security apparatus here was already in close collaboration with Russia. Some servicemen and some military and some police officers were defecting to the Russian Federation and were agitating their colleagues to do the same.

[Tyler McBrien]

Those who don't defect began fleeing Crimea to mainland Ukraine.

[Lutviya Zudeeva]

When military equipment began to leave Crimea, it became clear that somewhere at the political level they agreed not to fight for Crimea. At that moment, it became clear to people in Crimea that most likely there will be no one to protect them.

[Tyler McBrien]

Many locals resist anyway. There are large protests, even armed self defense groups that start patrolling the streets so the Russians can't pass through. But without government support, these efforts lead nowhere. The Russian army takes full control of Crimea in a matter of weeks.

[Benjamin Wittes]

This morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin is.

[Michael McFaul]

Moving quickly to annex the Crimea region. Despite U.S. and international protests, he approved.

[Benjamin Wittes]

A draft bill to make Crimea part of Russia.

[Michael McFaul]

This is a live look from Moscow where Putin is addressing.

[Tyler McBrien]

While the world watches the bloodshed in Ukraine, Ukrainians look back at the world to stop it. Two decades earlier, Ukraine gave up its huge nuclear arsenal in exchange for American and Russian guarantees of security or assurances, depending on who you ask. The Budapest Memorandum was created for this exact moment. And so when Russia invades Crimea, Ukrainians ask, what about that memorandum?

[Hillary Clinton]

Ukraine is calling on all participants of the Budapest memorandum to guarantee security, unity.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

And territorial integrity of Ukraine.

[Tyler McBrien]

That's Ukraine's interim Prime minister speaking to Parliament on the eve of Russia's invasion of Crimea. He calls on the signatories of the Budapest Memorandum to hold up their end of the bargain. But remember, Americans and Ukrainians see that document very differently. The west only provides assurances, not guarantees. So Washington gets involved, but only condemns Russian actions and sanctions some Russians and their assets. There's nothing to help the Ukrainians fight back, because it was out of the.

[Hillary Clinton]

Question at that point that we would suddenly start sending weapons.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

CIA analyst Eric Charamella says the Americans are shocked and have no clue how to respond. But more importantly, he says that the Ukrainian forces were so outnumbered that Americans thought that there was virtually nothing they could do. Nothing short of a full blown military intervention that could stop the Russians from seizing Crimea. The Ukrainian army had been neglected for decades, and Yanukovych only made it worse.

[Hillary Clinton]

They only had about 5 or 6,000 combat capable, even remotely potentially combat capable forces to go up against a Russian force of, you know, 30 to 40,000 in Crimea. It was really kind of the realization that there was no way to resist that wouldn't end up in a complete Ukrainian Defeat.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

Keep in mind, at this point, it's been a few days since Yanukovych has been overthrown, so the country is still figuring out who's even in charge.

[Hillary Clinton]

When you look at the time that elapsed between Yanukovych leaving the capital and Russia having effective control over the peninsula, it was seven days, a really short period of time to completely come up with a new policy, especially when there's political uncertainty in Kyiv.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

So no security aid, no weapons, and definitely no American boots on the ground. Washington is caught off guard and flat footed. So it basically tells the Ukrainians to surrender and give Crimea up.

[Michael McFaul]

The fear tonight that the Ukrainian military or people will try and stop him touching off a bloody war. It's why Secretary of State Kerry is racing to the region, making sure they hold their fire, because the Russian military would likely crush any resistance from Ukrainian forces.

[Hillary Clinton]

It was almost inconceivable that Ukraine could have resisted even if we had sent, you know, small arms or something like that. I mean, there was no one to fire them.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

The advice to the Ukrainian government is.

[Hillary Clinton]

You know, probably best for you to put this in a diplomatic channel and not resist militarily.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

We'll be back after the break.

[Benjamin Wittes]

Support for escalation comes from Delete Me, the industry leader in personal data removal for individuals and businesses. We're back with Delete Me Senior Director of Operations Ali McLachlan to hear more about what Delete Me really does behind the scenes to keep members safe from threats to their personal data. Ali, what is Delete Me actually doing? How is my information kept safe?

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[Benjamin Wittes]

For more information on Deleteme and its services, go to joindeleteme.com escalation and use the code ESCALATION to get 20% off a personal plan. And you can contact them there about a special offer to put protect your business too. That's joindeleteme.com escalation code escalation. Now back to the show.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

We're back. Okay. Let's make sure you're comfortable. Do you want to maybe turn the chair around? No, no, no.

[Sasha Khribyat]

I'm okay.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

Good. Okay. It's a Monday night in September of 2024, and I'm having my friend Sasha Khribyat over for dinner. Well, sort of. The main reason he's here is so I could pick his brain about how the Russians showed up to his home 10 years ago. Immediately after the Russians invade and occupy Crimea in March, their attention shifts to the east of Ukraine, to a region called Donbass. Sasha is from there. He was born and raised in the city of Donetsk at the time, a large, booming regional capital. That was until the Russians showed up. Tell me about the day that the war began for you.

[Sasha Khribyat]

I woke up to the sounds of fighter jets and helicopters flying above my home. So the sirens started and it was a sound of explosion far, far away. And I climbed the small hill and I saw the black smoke going from the place where the airport is.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

The Ukrainian president says Moscow is exporting terrorism to eastern Ukraine. Over the first few weeks of April, chaos and violence are spreading all around eastern Ukraine. Behind that violence is a mixed bag of people. Some are pro Russian locals, Ukrainian citizens, while others are members of the Russian military and Russian security services. It's that latter group that brings in the money and weapons to stir up conflict. They organize rallies, try to take control of government buildings, fly Russian flags and openly call for unification with Moscow. The Kremlin wants the world to believe that this is a civil war, that Russia has nothing to do with it. But in a matter of weeks, Russian forces occupy a large chunk of territory, including several cities.

[Sasha Khribyat]

Fightings were already ongoing in the region. The artillery fire was there, a mortar fire. The skirmishes with assault rifles, you know, in between Ukrainian army and pro Russian forces and the Russia led forces.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

But this time, Ukrainians put up a fight.

[Hillary Clinton]

Ukraine's acting president has announced the start of an anti terrorist operation in the.

[Ali McLachlan]

East of the country.

[Hillary Clinton]

The aim of this action, I emphasize.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

It once again, is to protect Ukraine's citizens, to stop terror, to stop criminality and stop attempts to tear Ukraine apart. So you hear the sirens and what do you do? You weren't surprised?

[Sasha Khribyat]

Oh, yeah, of course, absolutely. But I was happy hearing those sirens and that explosion because, like I remember repeating Atopochalosa, which is antiterrorist operation, started in Donetsk, hoping everything will end within a couple of weeks, maybe three, four.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

Thousands of Ukrainians, some veterans, some Euromaidan activists, form volunteer battalions and join the military to fight against Russia in Donbass. With barely any resources, they managed to liberate several cities. The Ukrainian Army's forward momentum means the.

[Michael McFaul]

Separatists have been pushed back across much of the east, though they still largely.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

Control the regional capitals of Luhansk and.

[Tyler McBrien]

Donetsk, as well as the city of Horlivka.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

By this point, the US finally scrambles to put together several security aid packages. But most of it includes things like helmets, packaged meals, night vision equipment, some Humvees, but nothing lethal. Nothing that in American eyes would provoke the Russians and escalate the conflict.

[Michael McFaul]

I want to be clear that there is also a way to resolve this crisis that respects the interests of the Russian Federation as well as the Ukrainian people. That's the path of de escalation.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

Did you think it would be over quickly?

[Sasha Khribyat]

Oh, yeah.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

You were fully expecting that you would be able to come?

[Sasha Khribyat]

Oh, yeah, absolutely. I didn't have. I still keep a key. And you can see one thing which is also from Donetsk.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

You still have the key from your apartment?

[Sasha Khribyat]

Yeah.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

So you thought you're going to be back.

[Sasha Khribyat]

I was packing for two weeks. Now it's ten and a half years.

[Anastasia Lapatina]

Dozens of failed ceasefires and bloody battles later, the frontline largely freezes. By late 2015, around 12% of Ukrainian territory is left under Russian occupation. Thousands of people are killed, millions lose their homes. And between mild sanctions and vocal condemnation from the west, the Kremlin feels barely any consequences for what it has done. This is the true beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

[Tyler McBrien]

President Obama's Russia reset policy does little to help Ukraine defend itself while it loses Crimea and Donbas to Russian forces. But as Obama leaves the White House, over in Congress, there's actually some growing bipartisan support for Ukraine. Lawmakers in Washington seem willing to send the Ukrainians weapons to fight back. Meanwhile, the 2016 presidential election is heating up and rumors about Russian interference will catch Ukraine in the crossfire.

[Michael McFaul]

And by the way, folks, just in case you're, like, curious, no, Russia did not help me. Okay, Russia. I call it the Russian hoax. My call was perfect. The president yesterday of Ukraine said there was no pressure put on him whatsoever.

[Benjamin Wittes]

None whatsoever.

[Tyler McBrien]

President Trump's perfect phone call with the Ukrainian president. That's next time on Escalation. Escalation is a production of Lawfare and Goat Rodeo. You can follow the show on Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts to stay up to date on new episodes. And please leave us a rating and a review while you're there. Escalation's lead producer is Max Johnston. The show was reported and written by Anastasia Lapotina, Tyler McBrien, Max Johnston and Benjamin Wittes. Executive producers at Lawfare are Benjamin Wittes, Natalie Orpet and Scott Anderson. Executive producers at Goat Rodeo are Max Johnston, Ian Enright and Megan Adolsky. Additional production assistants at Goat Rodeo From Isabel, Kirby McGowan, Rebecca Seidel, Kara Schillen, Jay Venables and Hazel Hoffman. Additional production assistants at Lawfare from Anna Hickey, Patrick Cole and Quinta Jurecik. Sound design, scoring, mixing and engineering from Max Johnston and Ian Enright. Our theme is Enigma by Charlie Edwards. Additional music from Blue Dot Sessions and Alibi Music. Our cover art was designed by Marie Kinovich.

[Michael McFaul]

Foreign.

[Benjamin Wittes]

Escalation is presented by Delete Me, the industry leader in personal data removal. Deleteme is trusted by 20% of the Fortune 500 and by federal, state and county courts across the United States. For more information on Deleteme and its services, for instance, individuals and businesses, go to joindeleteme.com escalation.