The Lawfare Podcast: Escalation, Episode Five – Resets

Release Date: June 5, 2025

Overview

In Episode Five of the "Escalation" series titled "Resets," hosted by Tyler McBrien and Anastasia Lapatina from The Lawfare Institute, the podcast delves deep into the tumultuous history of U.S.-Ukrainian relations. The episode meticulously traces the trajectory from Ukraine's independence to the volatile present-day scenario, highlighting pivotal moments such as the Obama administration's Russia "reset" policy, the Euromaidan protests, and Russia's annexation of Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Through insightful interviews with experts like Michael McFaul and firsthand accounts from Ukrainian activists, the episode offers a comprehensive analysis of the geopolitical tensions shaping the region.

1. The Obama Administration's Russia Reset Policy

The episode opens with a critical examination of the Obama administration's attempt to "reset" relations with Russia. This policy aimed to move past the Cold War-era hostilities by fostering cooperation on shared strategic interests, including nuclear disarmament and counterterrorism.

Notable Insights:

• Michael McFaul, a leading Russia expert and former ambassador, reflects on the reset's intentions and shortcomings:

  "[...] the reset was about very concrete American national security interests. And I'm going to say that word again. American national security interests."
  [12:57]

• McFaul candidly acknowledges the policy's failure to deter President Putin:

  "We failed to deter Putin." [14:02]

• The discussion highlights the misjudgment of Russia's long-term strategic objectives, contrasting American short-term diplomatic efforts with Russia's sustained geopolitical ambitions.

2. Ukraine's Political Turmoil and the Euromaidan Protests

Anastasia Lapatina provides a chronological account of Ukraine's internal struggles, focusing on the dichotomy between pro-Western and pro-Russian factions. The narrative underscores how political instability paved the way for external interventions.

Key Events:

• The Orange Revolution (2004-2005): Initiated by Viktor Yushchenko's pro-Western platform, aiming to combat corruption and enhance ties with Europe.

  "Viktor Yushchenko won the presidential election on a platform of fighting corruption and growing Ukraine's relationship with the West."
  [18:17]

• Rise of Viktor Yanukovych (2010): Yanukovych's ascent, backed by Russia, marked a significant pivot back towards Moscow's influence.

  "Yanukovych starts pulling Ukraine back into Russia's orbit." [20:02]

• Euromaidan Protests (2013-2014): Triggered by Yanukovych's abrupt decision to suspend the EU association agreement, leading to massive protests and eventual regime change.

  "The signing of the association agreement with the European Union was of such tremendous symbolic value for the Ukrainian society that it was enough to ignite a protest in Kyiv."
  [22:40]

Notable Quotes:

• Hillary Clinton comments on the brutal crackdown during Euromaidan:

  "And Viktor Yanukovych, who is guilty of [...] he has the blood of our children."
  [25:18]

• Michael McFaul reflects on the aftermath:

  "We failed at that. Let's be clear. Like, we failed to deter Putin."
  [14:02]

3. Russia's Annexation of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine

The podcast delves into Russia's strategic moves post-Euromaidan, particularly the annexation of Crimea and the subsequent conflict in the Donbass region.

Key Developments:

• Annexation of Crimea (2014): Russian forces, referred to as "little green men," seamlessly took control, leading to international condemnation but limited immediate repercussions.

  "The soldiers have since been dubbed the little green men for the color of their uniforms."
  [36:05]

• Conflict in Donbass: Pro-Russian separatists, with covert Russian support, engaged in prolonged battles against Ukrainian forces, leading to significant territorial losses for Ukraine.

  "Thousands of soldiers without any insignia show up on Ukrainian territory, raiding government buildings, military bases and barracks."
  [34:05]

Personal Accounts:

• Lutviya Zudeeva, a Crimean Tatar activist, shares her harrowing experiences under Russian occupation:

  "During these 10 years, Crimea has gathered a whole list of so-called political prisoners."
  [06:36]

  "He broke into search. They jumped over the fence and started knocking loudly on the door."
  [07:25]

4. International Response and the Budapest Memorandum

The episode critically assesses the international community's response to Russia's aggression, particularly focusing on the Budapest Memorandum's role and limitations.

Insights:

• Budapest Memorandum (1994): Ukraine relinquished its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances from the U.S., Russia, and the U.K. However, these assurances were largely symbolic, leading to debates over their enforceability.

  "The Budapest Memorandum was created for this exact moment. And so when Russia invades Crimea, Ukrainians ask, what about that memorandum?"
  [37:45]

• U.S. and Western Actions: While the West condemned Russia's actions and imposed sanctions, tangible support to Ukraine remained constrained due to the initial assurances' non-binding nature.

  "The west only provides assurances, not guarantees."
  [38:34]

5. Ukrainian Resistance and the Stalled Conflict

Despite inadequate international support, Ukrainians mobilized to defend their sovereignty. Volunteer battalions and the Ukrainian military engaged in fierce combat, albeit facing resource shortages against a superior Russian force.

Key Points:

• Volunteer Battalions: Comprised of veterans and Euromaidan activists, these groups played a crucial role in reclaiming territories despite limited equipment.

  "Thousands of Ukrainians, some veterans, some Euromaidan activists, form volunteer battalions and join the military to fight against Russia in Donbass." [47:05]

• Stalled Frontlines: Persistent ceasefires and continuous battles led to a frozen conflict by late 2015, with significant portions of Ukrainian territory under Russian control.

  "The frontline largely freezes. By late 2015, around 12% of Ukrainian territory is left under Russian occupation." [48:42]

6. Expert Analysis and Reflections

Throughout the episode, experts like Michael McFaul provide critical reflections on policy missteps and the broader geopolitical implications.

Notable Reflections:

• Policy Miscalculations: McFaul emphasizes the short-sightedness of the reset policy and the underestimation of Russia's long-term strategies.

  "We should have been more aggressive."
  [14:33]

• Strategic Interests: The focus on specific U.S. national security interests at the expense of broader regional stability contributed to the escalation.

  "Each of those objectives was a success at the time. But I have to think, where does this leave my country?"
  [13:31]

7. Perspectives from Ukrainian Activists

Personal stories from activists like Sasha Khribyat and Lutviya Zudeeva humanize the geopolitical narrative, illustrating the profound impact on individuals and communities.

Personal Accounts:

• Sasha Khribyat recounts the onset of the Donbass conflict and the ensuing chaos:

  "I woke up to the sounds of fighter jets and helicopters flying above my home."
  [44:35]

• Lutviya Zudeeva highlights the ongoing repression and the resilience of the Crimean Tatars:

  "Even when some lived in Tajikistan or Uzbekistan, we heard our grandparents talking about how we would return to Crimea."
  [08:17]

Conclusion

"Resets" offers a nuanced exploration of the intricate and often fraught relationship between the United States, Ukraine, and Russia. By weaving together expert analysis, historical context, and personal testimonies, the episode underscores the complexities of international diplomacy, the consequences of policy decisions, and the enduring spirit of those striving for national sovereignty. As geopolitical landscapes continue to evolve, the insights garnered from this episode remain invaluable for understanding the ongoing conflict and the path forward for Ukraine and its allies.

This summary is based on the transcript provided and aims to encapsulate the key discussions, insights, and narratives presented in Episode Five of the "Escalation" series on The Lawfare Podcast.