The Lawfare Podcast: Escalation, Episode Four - The Worst of Both Worlds
Release Date: June 3, 2025
Introduction
In Escalation, a narrative series by The Lawfare Institute, Episode Four titled "The Worst of Both Worlds" delves into the complex and tumultuous history of U.S.-Ukraine relations. Hosted by Tyler McBrien, Managing Editor of Lawfare, and co-hosted with Anastasia Lapatyna, Lawfare’s Ukraine fellow, the episode examines pivotal events from Ukraine's independence to the lead-up of the 2008 NATO summit. This episode intricately weaves together the narratives of a corrupt presidential campaign, an assassination attempt, and a revolution, culminating in a high-stakes NATO meeting that would significantly impact Ukraine's future.
1. The Orange Revolution: A Struggle for Democracy
Key Events:
- Election Crisis (2004): Ukraine's 2004 presidential election becomes a battleground between two candidates: Viktor Yushchenko, representing Western interests and advocating for closer ties with NATO and the West, and Viktor Yanukovych, backed by Moscow and favoring stronger relations with Russia.
- Assassination Attempt on Yushchenko (September 2004): Yushchenko is poisoned with dioxin, leading to severe disfigurement. This act is widely perceived as an assassination attempt orchestrated by forces aligned with Yanukovych and, by extension, the Kremlin.
Notable Quotes:
- Fiona Hill (12:36): “And it's not a problem of cuisine. We're talking about the Ukrainian political kitchen, where assassinations can be ordered.”
- Olga Takaruk (12:14): “At an Austrian clinic, doctors conclude that Yushchenko was poisoned with dioxin, a powerful toxin that can be lethal.”
Insights: The poisoning of Yushchenko galvanizes public sentiment against corruption and Russian interference, leading to widespread protests known as the Orange Revolution. Citizens from diverse backgrounds unite in Kyiv’s Maidan Square, symbolizing a collective demand for democratic reforms and transparency.
2. The Aftermath of the Orange Revolution: Fragile Reforms and Disillusionment
Key Events:
- Victory Celebration (November 2004): Following court-ordered re-elections, Yushchenko emerges victorious, leading to the Orange Revolution, which is celebrated internationally as a triumph of democracy.
- Challenges in Governance (2005-2008): Despite initial optimism, Yushchenko struggles to implement promised reforms. Internal political infighting, economic stagnation, and persistent corruption undermine his administration.
Notable Quotes:
- Mary Serratti (22:49): “You had a stolen election and then Ukrainians simply wouldn't take it. And instead of a bloody denouement or a crackdown, there was a negotiated solution and new elections.”
- Dan Fried (23:09): “I welcome you here to the Oval Office. I admire your steadfast support for democratic values and principles.”
Insights: While the Orange Revolution marks a pivotal moment for Ukrainian democracy, Yushchenko’s inability to execute substantial reforms leads to growing disillusionment among the populace. This stagnation creates an environment ripe for further political instability and external influence.
3. Ukraine's Quest for NATO Membership: Hopes and Hurdles
Key Events:
- Yushchenko’s NATO Ambitions (2008): Seeking security guarantees against Russian aggression, Yushchenko formally requests Ukraine to join NATO. This move is met with mixed reactions within NATO and among its member states.
- Internal NATO Divisions: Countries like Germany, under Chancellor Angela Merkel, resist NATO’s expansion, citing concerns over provoking Russia and destabilizing the region.
Notable Quotes:
- Viktor Yushchenko (25:34): “We need an invitation to NATO. It'll help orient our politics. It'll give us the momentum we need to do what you've been telling us to do.”
- Angela Merkel (26:23): “Frontline forces on our borders... NATO expansion represents a serious provocation.”
Insights: Ukraine's bid for NATO membership becomes a flashpoint, exposing fractures within the alliance. While Yushchenko views NATO as the cornerstone of Ukraine’s security, skepticism among NATO members, driven by economic and geopolitical considerations, impedes the progress towards membership.
4. The 2008 Bucharest Summit: A Pivotal Turning Point
Key Events:
- Summit Dynamics (April 2008): The Bucharest NATO summit becomes a contentious venue where the future of Ukraine and Georgia's NATO aspirations is debated. Persistent tensions and lack of consensus characterize the proceedings.
- Outcome: NATO declares that Ukraine and Georgia will eventually become members, but no concrete roadmap or immediate action plan is established. This ambiguous promise fails to provide Ukraine with the desired security assurances.
Notable Quotes:
- Fiona Hill (34:35): “We were all living in a bureaucratic process, and Putin's living in the world of hard power.”
- Mary Serratti (37:55): “This insistence of Washington on talking to post Soviet countries through the prism of Moscow was a complete failure and a mistake.”
Insights: The Bucharest summit is widely regarded as a diplomatic failure. The lack of substantial support from NATO allies leaves Ukraine vulnerable, emboldening Russia to pursue aggressive policies in the region. This diplomatic ambiguity significantly strains U.S.-Ukraine relations and sows seeds of distrust.
5. Russia's Assertive Response: Invasions and Reassertion of Influence
Key Events:
- Invasion of Georgia (August 2008): Shortly after the Bucharest summit, Russia invades Georgia, signaling its readiness to use military force to prevent further NATO expansion into its sphere of influence.
- Threats Against Ukraine (2008): Following Georgia’s invasion, Russia sets its sights on Ukraine, leading to increased tensions and eventual military confrontations.
Notable Quotes:
- Vladimir Putin (29:32): “NATO has put its frontline forces on our borders... It represents a serious provocation.”
- Fiona Hill (34:35): “Putin says, well, Ukraine is next up. What am I going to do about Ukraine?”
Insights: Russia’s military actions in Georgia serve as a stern warning to Ukraine and other Eastern European nations. The aggressive stance underscores Russia’s determination to maintain its influence and prevent NATO’s eastward expansion, setting the stage for future conflicts.
6. The Legacy of the Bucharest Summit and the Prelude to Conflict
Key Events:
- Diplomatic Fallout: The unresolved issues from the Bucharest summit leave Ukraine without the necessary support to counter Russian aggression, undermining the perceived strength of NATO.
- Internal NATO Discord: Differing national interests and historical ties with Russia contribute to a fragmented alliance, weakening NATO’s ability to present a united front.
Notable Quotes:
- Mary Serratti (38:28): “The only person who's thrilled about the outcome of the Bucharest summit is Vladimir Putin.”
- Angela Merkel (37:45): “This insistence of Washington on talking to post Soviet countries through the prism of Moscow was a complete failure and a mistake.”
Insights: The Bucharest summit's ambiguous commitments and lack of decisive action contribute to NATO’s diminished credibility in the region. Ukraine, feeling abandoned by both the West and NATO, becomes increasingly susceptible to Russian coercion, setting the stage for future invasions.
Conclusion: The Road to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Episode Four of Escalation paints a comprehensive picture of the geopolitical tensions that have shaped U.S.-Ukraine relations. The failure to secure meaningful NATO support during the 2008 Bucharest summit, combined with Russia’s aggressive policies, created an environment where Ukraine was left vulnerable. This precarious balance ultimately led to Russia’s military actions against Georgia and set the groundwork for future conflicts in Ukraine.
Production Credits: Escalation is produced by Lawfare and Goat Rodeo, with lead production by Max Johnston. The show features reporting and writing by Anastasia Lapatyna, Tyler McBrien, Max Johnston, and Benjamin Wittes. Executive producers include Benjamin Wittes, Natalie Orpet, Scott Anderson (Lawfare), and Max Johnston, Ian Enright, Megan Adolsky (Goat Rodeo). Sound design and engineering were managed by Max Johnston and Ian Enright.
Noteworthy Mention: Throughout the episode, Escalation integrates expert insights and firsthand accounts, providing listeners with a nuanced understanding of the intricacies involved in Ukraine’s pursuit of sovereignty and security within the volatile landscape of international politics.