Escalation, Episode Four: The Worst of Both Worlds

Summary

The Lawfare Podcast: Escalation, Episode Four - The Worst of Both Worlds

Release Date: June 3, 2025

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Introduction

In Escalation, a narrative series by The Lawfare Institute, Episode Four titled "The Worst of Both Worlds" delves into the complex and tumultuous history of U.S.-Ukraine relations. Hosted by Tyler McBrien, Managing Editor of Lawfare, and co-hosted with Anastasia Lapatyna, Lawfare’s Ukraine fellow, the episode examines pivotal events from Ukraine's independence to the lead-up of the 2008 NATO summit. This episode intricately weaves together the narratives of a corrupt presidential campaign, an assassination attempt, and a revolution, culminating in a high-stakes NATO meeting that would significantly impact Ukraine's future.

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1. The Orange Revolution: A Struggle for Democracy

Key Events:

• Election Crisis (2004): Ukraine's 2004 presidential election becomes a battleground between two candidates: Viktor Yushchenko, representing Western interests and advocating for closer ties with NATO and the West, and Viktor Yanukovych, backed by Moscow and favoring stronger relations with Russia.
• Assassination Attempt on Yushchenko (September 2004): Yushchenko is poisoned with dioxin, leading to severe disfigurement. This act is widely perceived as an assassination attempt orchestrated by forces aligned with Yanukovych and, by extension, the Kremlin.

Notable Quotes:

• Fiona Hill (12:36): “And it's not a problem of cuisine. We're talking about the Ukrainian political kitchen, where assassinations can be ordered.”
• Olga Takaruk (12:14): “At an Austrian clinic, doctors conclude that Yushchenko was poisoned with dioxin, a powerful toxin that can be lethal.”

Insights: The poisoning of Yushchenko galvanizes public sentiment against corruption and Russian interference, leading to widespread protests known as the Orange Revolution. Citizens from diverse backgrounds unite in Kyiv’s Maidan Square, symbolizing a collective demand for democratic reforms and transparency.

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2. The Aftermath of the Orange Revolution: Fragile Reforms and Disillusionment

Key Events:

• Victory Celebration (November 2004): Following court-ordered re-elections, Yushchenko emerges victorious, leading to the Orange Revolution, which is celebrated internationally as a triumph of democracy.
• Challenges in Governance (2005-2008): Despite initial optimism, Yushchenko struggles to implement promised reforms. Internal political infighting, economic stagnation, and persistent corruption undermine his administration.

Notable Quotes:

• Mary Serratti (22:49): “You had a stolen election and then Ukrainians simply wouldn't take it. And instead of a bloody denouement or a crackdown, there was a negotiated solution and new elections.”
• Dan Fried (23:09): “I welcome you here to the Oval Office. I admire your steadfast support for democratic values and principles.”

Insights: While the Orange Revolution marks a pivotal moment for Ukrainian democracy, Yushchenko’s inability to execute substantial reforms leads to growing disillusionment among the populace. This stagnation creates an environment ripe for further political instability and external influence.

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3. Ukraine's Quest for NATO Membership: Hopes and Hurdles

Key Events:

• Yushchenko’s NATO Ambitions (2008): Seeking security guarantees against Russian aggression, Yushchenko formally requests Ukraine to join NATO. This move is met with mixed reactions within NATO and among its member states.
• Internal NATO Divisions: Countries like Germany, under Chancellor Angela Merkel, resist NATO’s expansion, citing concerns over provoking Russia and destabilizing the region.

Notable Quotes:

• Viktor Yushchenko (25:34): “We need an invitation to NATO. It'll help orient our politics. It'll give us the momentum we need to do what you've been telling us to do.”
• Angela Merkel (26:23): “Frontline forces on our borders... NATO expansion represents a serious provocation.”

Insights: Ukraine's bid for NATO membership becomes a flashpoint, exposing fractures within the alliance. While Yushchenko views NATO as the cornerstone of Ukraine’s security, skepticism among NATO members, driven by economic and geopolitical considerations, impedes the progress towards membership.

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4. The 2008 Bucharest Summit: A Pivotal Turning Point

Key Events:

• Summit Dynamics (April 2008): The Bucharest NATO summit becomes a contentious venue where the future of Ukraine and Georgia's NATO aspirations is debated. Persistent tensions and lack of consensus characterize the proceedings.
• Outcome: NATO declares that Ukraine and Georgia will eventually become members, but no concrete roadmap or immediate action plan is established. This ambiguous promise fails to provide Ukraine with the desired security assurances.

Notable Quotes:

• Fiona Hill (34:35): “We were all living in a bureaucratic process, and Putin's living in the world of hard power.”
• Mary Serratti (37:55): “This insistence of Washington on talking to post Soviet countries through the prism of Moscow was a complete failure and a mistake.”

Insights: The Bucharest summit is widely regarded as a diplomatic failure. The lack of substantial support from NATO allies leaves Ukraine vulnerable, emboldening Russia to pursue aggressive policies in the region. This diplomatic ambiguity significantly strains U.S.-Ukraine relations and sows seeds of distrust.

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5. Russia's Assertive Response: Invasions and Reassertion of Influence

Key Events:

• Invasion of Georgia (August 2008): Shortly after the Bucharest summit, Russia invades Georgia, signaling its readiness to use military force to prevent further NATO expansion into its sphere of influence.
• Threats Against Ukraine (2008): Following Georgia’s invasion, Russia sets its sights on Ukraine, leading to increased tensions and eventual military confrontations.

Notable Quotes:

• Vladimir Putin (29:32): “NATO has put its frontline forces on our borders... It represents a serious provocation.”
• Fiona Hill (34:35): “Putin says, well, Ukraine is next up. What am I going to do about Ukraine?”

Insights: Russia’s military actions in Georgia serve as a stern warning to Ukraine and other Eastern European nations. The aggressive stance underscores Russia’s determination to maintain its influence and prevent NATO’s eastward expansion, setting the stage for future conflicts.

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6. The Legacy of the Bucharest Summit and the Prelude to Conflict

Key Events:

• Diplomatic Fallout: The unresolved issues from the Bucharest summit leave Ukraine without the necessary support to counter Russian aggression, undermining the perceived strength of NATO.
• Internal NATO Discord: Differing national interests and historical ties with Russia contribute to a fragmented alliance, weakening NATO’s ability to present a united front.

Notable Quotes:

• Mary Serratti (38:28): “The only person who's thrilled about the outcome of the Bucharest summit is Vladimir Putin.”
• Angela Merkel (37:45): “This insistence of Washington on talking to post Soviet countries through the prism of Moscow was a complete failure and a mistake.”

Insights: The Bucharest summit's ambiguous commitments and lack of decisive action contribute to NATO’s diminished credibility in the region. Ukraine, feeling abandoned by both the West and NATO, becomes increasingly susceptible to Russian coercion, setting the stage for future invasions.

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Conclusion: The Road to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Episode Four of Escalation paints a comprehensive picture of the geopolitical tensions that have shaped U.S.-Ukraine relations. The failure to secure meaningful NATO support during the 2008 Bucharest summit, combined with Russia’s aggressive policies, created an environment where Ukraine was left vulnerable. This precarious balance ultimately led to Russia’s military actions against Georgia and set the groundwork for future conflicts in Ukraine.

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Production Credits: Escalation is produced by Lawfare and Goat Rodeo, with lead production by Max Johnston. The show features reporting and writing by Anastasia Lapatyna, Tyler McBrien, Max Johnston, and Benjamin Wittes. Executive producers include Benjamin Wittes, Natalie Orpet, Scott Anderson (Lawfare), and Max Johnston, Ian Enright, Megan Adolsky (Goat Rodeo). Sound design and engineering were managed by Max Johnston and Ian Enright.

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Noteworthy Mention: Throughout the episode, Escalation integrates expert insights and firsthand accounts, providing listeners with a nuanced understanding of the intricacies involved in Ukraine’s pursuit of sovereignty and security within the volatile landscape of international politics.

Transcript

[Benjamin Wittes]

The following podcast contains advertising to access an ad free version of the Lawfare Podcast. Become a material supporter of [e-mail] lawfare that's patreon.com Lawfair also check out Lawfare's other podcast offerings, Rational Security Chatter, Lawfare no Bull, and the Aftermath.

[Tyler McBrien]

It's the Lawfare podcast. I'm Tyler McBrien, managing editor of Lawfare. This afternoon we're continuing to bring you a little something extra on top of our daily Lawfare podcast episodes. Today, it's episode four of Escalation, our latest narrative series that I co hosted with Lawfare's Ukraine fellow, Anastasia Lapatna. Throughout the show, Nasti and I trace the history of US Ukrainian relations from the time of Ukrainian independence through the present. You can listen to Escalation in its entirety, as well as our other narrative series on our Law Firm Presents channel. Wherever you get your podcasts. Episode four explores the interconnected stories of a dirty presidential campaign, an assassination attempt, and a revolution, all of which preceded the 2008 NATO summit, when the United States and European allies concoct a high risk plan to protect Ukraine going forward. This is Escalation. Episode four, the Worst of both Worlds.

[Benjamin Wittes]

Escalation is presented by Deleteme, the industry leader in personal data removal. Deleteme is trusted by 20% of the Fortune 500 and by federal, state and county courts across the United States. For more information on Deleteme and its services for individuals and businesses, go to joindeleteme.com escalation.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

Previously on Escalation.

[Fiona Hill]

Last November, the decaying body of a man was found in this forest outside Kiev.

[Olga Takaruk]

The president of my country is possibly.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

Involved in the murder of my husband.

[Fiona Hill]

Wednesday night's blast left a gaping hole.

[Tyler McBrien]

In the center of the building. He was suddenly everywhere.

[Benjamin Wittes]

Vowing bloody revenge.

[Mary Serratti]

Something Somebody hit the World Trade Center.

[Dan Fried]

When I looked the man in the eye, I was able to get a sense of his soul.

[Benjamin Wittes]

There was no one in the new administration who had the wherewithal to understand.

[Dan Fried]

That he was covering up his own crimes.

[Tyler McBrien]

It's April 2008, and US President George W. Bush is giving a speech at a diplomatic summit.

[Dan Fried]

Thank you and good morning. Laura and I are pleased to be back in Bucharest. And here in Bucharest, we will extend the circle of freedom even further.

[Tyler McBrien]

President Bush is here to talk about four simple letters that loom large over the United States and Ukraine. NATO.

[Dan Fried]

NATO should welcome Georgia and Ukraine. And NATO membership must remain open to all of Europe's democracies that seek it.

[Tyler McBrien]

NATO or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is the most powerful alliance in the world, a partnership of countries across both hemispheres that have agreed to defend each other if one comes under attack. The United States is NATO's biggest and strongest member. But the relationship between Ukraine and NATO is strange. So to help you understand it, we need to call in some backup at this point.

[Volodymyr Ohrysko]

You guys have interviewed a ton of people. Where would I most add value? I mean, for example, I don't really know what's going on on the ground in Ukraine. On the other hand, I have written a book about the history of NATO enlargement.

[Tyler McBrien]

That's American historian Mary Cerrotti, and her book is called Not One Inch. She's the expert on all the twists and turns between Ukraine and NATO. NATO was founded in 1949 when everyone desperately hoped that big wars were now behind them. But as the Cold War started, nuclear weapons made the world much more terrifying, and European countries realized they may have an enemy in the Soviet Union.

[Volodymyr Ohrysko]

The big question was what to do about it. And a number of Europeans, importantly the British, started saying, you know, you Americans, you have this funny habit. You do the right thing in the end, after trying every conceivable alternative first. So a lot of World War I went by before you showed up, and a lot of World War II went by before you showed up. And given that World War III would be nuclear, we'd actually rather have you here at the beginning rather than the end of the war. Thank you very much.

[Tyler McBrien]

So 12 founding members, including the United States, signed something called the Washington Treaty, which states that an attack on one of NATO's members shall be considered an attack on all of them. The alliance's sole mission is to protect Western Europe from the Soviet Union. But the union collapses in 1991. Then Russian President Boris Yeltsin fires tanks on his own parliament and wages a brutal war in Chechnya. So by the 2000s, you start to.

[Volodymyr Ohrysko]

See Central and Eastern Europeans saying, wait a minute, maybe we should be part of NATO.

[Tyler McBrien]

The Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland join in 1999. Seven more Eastern European countries join five years later. But as NATO expands, that Cold War front line that ran through divided Germany, the line that pinned global superpowers against each other, starts to re emerge. And Ukraine is left on the wrong side of it.

[Benjamin Wittes]

Mr. Putin noted certain problems, such as continued NATO expansion.

[Angela Merkel]

The declaration that this process is not.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

Directed against Russia cannot satisfy us.

[Tyler McBrien]

Ukraine is expanding its relationship with the West. And in 2008, Ukraine's president requests a plan to join NATO.

[Volodymyr Ohrysko]

So you have a fairly ugly spat at the Bucharest summit in 2008. This is unusual. Generally important matters get sorted out in advance of the conference. But this one actually went down to the summit this week.

[Dan Fried]

Our alliance must also decide how to respond to the request by Georgia and Ukraine. We send a signal throughout the region that these two nations are and will remain sovereign and independent states.

[Tyler McBrien]

The Bucharest summit will go down in infamy because the plan that NATO allies hatch here in Bucharest will have the same legacy as the Chikunkiev speech and the Budapest memo before will be a failure to some and a betrayal to others.

[Fiona Hill]

And I've actually spent years trying to figure out what actually happened myself.

[Tyler McBrien]

Russia expert and diplomat Fiona Hill, who you've heard from in past episodes, because.

[Fiona Hill]

It didn't turn out at all. You know, how one might have anticipated. And in fact, I think it was the worst of all worlds.

[Tyler McBrien]

That last phrase she uses, the worst of all worlds. That phrase will come up over and over again.

[Mary Serratti]

It was the worst of both worlds.

[Volodymyr Ohrysko]

I think was the worst of all possible worlds.

[Tyler McBrien]

So the Ukrainians got the worst of both worlds from lawfare and Goat Rodeo. This is Escalation, a podcast about the United States and Ukraine. I'm Tyler McBrien.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

And I'm Anastasia Lopatyna.

[Tyler McBrien]

This is episode four, the worst of both Worlds.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

Olga Takaruk was born in a small town in western Ukraine near the country's border with Romania. When Ukraine became independent in 1991, Takaruk was only six years old.

[Olga Takaruk]

And I remember, like, walking with them, like, hand in hand to the polling station on the day I saw that my parents were really, like, in favor of Ukraine becoming independent, that this was very important to them, that they were very happy when they learned that the majority of Ukrainians voted for it.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

When Tokaruk turns 18, she moves to Kyiv to study journalism. Many remnants of Soviet rule can still be found across government and society. She's often scolded by locals for speaking her native language.

[Olga Takaruk]

And people thought Ukraine wasn't normal. And they were kind of assaulting me verbally and telling me to talk in a normal language, which obviously for them was Russian.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

The Karuk is part of a whole generation of young Ukrainians who are beginning to craft their own political identity and learning what it means to be a Ukrainian citizen. After centuries of Russian rule, by 2004, many Ukrainians are simply fed up with a horrible economy and rampant corruption. And that year, the Karuk is finally old enough to cast her vote. Just as Ukraine plunges into an extremely dirty presidential race. Here, two new characters enter the story. Viktor Yushchenka and Viktor Yanukovych. And their first name is pretty much the only thing that they share. Viktor Yanukovych is from Donbas, Ukraine's eastern region that borders Russia. Yanukovych makes a name for himself by rising through the ranks of local organized crime and politics, becoming a Governor and in 2002, Prime Minister under then President Leonid Kuchma.

[Benjamin Wittes]

I think there are no ways to.

[Fiona Hill]

Start the process of joining NATO right.

[Tyler McBrien]

Now in Ukraine, there is no hope the outcome would be positive.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

Prime Minister Yanukovych runs as an extension of Kuchman's regime. He appeals to the industrial workers in his native east and seeks to enhance relations with Russia.

[Olga Takaruk]

Putin was coming to Kyiv to back Yanukovych, and we knew, like all the intimidation of voters, all the dirty campaign was made by Yanukovych and people who supported him. And behind all that was the Kremlin.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

The other candidate, Viktor Yushchenko, is from western Ukraine, and he represents the opposition.

[Angela Merkel]

Let's free Ukraine from the bandits. Let's protect our families and our future.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

Yushchenko promises to fight corruption, promote the Ukrainian language and culture, and deepen the country's ties with the west and NATO. The two politicians run for president in 2004, and they epitomize the divide in Ukrainian society. Moscow backs Yanukovych. The Kremlin sends its top political strategists to Ukraine to craft his campaign.

[Olga Takaruk]

We notice a very, very dirty campaign. So all these, like, ads on TV and big boards, basically trying to depict Ukraine as a divided state, to accuse Yushchenko of wanting to divide Ukraine, of being a proxy of America.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

Three months before the election, Yushchenko suddenly gets symptoms of a mysterious illness. He becomes nauseous, suffers from intense headaches and abdominal pains. Then his entire face gets disfigured. His skin grows what looks like terrible acne, some spots around his nose even turning gray. Yushchenko is hospitalized, but shows up to Parliament a week later. He accuses Kuchma's government of trying to kill him on Moscow's orders.

[Fiona Hill]

Look at my face.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

This is a fraction of the problems I've had.

[Fiona Hill]

And it's not a problem of cuisine. We're talking about the Ukrainian political kitchen, where assassinations can be ordered.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

You know very well who's the killer.

[Fiona Hill]

It's the government.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

At an Austrian clinic, doctors conclude that Yushchenko was poisoned with dioxin, a powerful toxin that can be lethal. His supporters immediately point to Russia. What Else could it be, if not an assassination attempt, to install Moscow's guy as president. But Yushchenko survives and, and for Olga Takaruk, that moment is a call to action.

[Olga Takaruk]

Yes, I can just vote and like, that's my civic duty, right? I thought, like, it's not enough I should do something else. What can I do?

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

Side note, Ukrainian elections are a bit different from American ones. Tons of candidates can run for office. So there are several rounds of voting. If no one gets more than 50% in the first round, the two most popular candidates face each other in round two. So in November 2004, Ukrainians head to the polls for the election's first round. But neither Yushchenko nor Yanukovych get more than 50%.

[Olga Takaruk]

Everybody was expecting a really, really messy, dirty second round of elections. And we just thought, we want to go and see what's going on at this polling stations, to be there to observe the electoral process, to report on it. If we see any violations, we will have the evidence that this happening.

[Tyler McBrien]

So 19 year old Dukaryuk and three of her girlfriends show up at the headquarters of the pro Western candidate Viktor Yushchenko's party.

[Olga Takaruk]

And they asked us, are you sure? And we're like, yeah, of course, why not? What bad can happen?

[Tyler McBrien]

The girls are sent to Eastern Ukraine. That's where the Kremlin backed Yanukovych has his stronghold. Takaryuk is stationed in a tiny village on the border with Russia.

[Olga Takaruk]

So I was practicing my Russian actually on the bus, like going there because like, if they hear my Ukrainian accent, they are going to treat me badly.

[Tyler McBrien]

The next day, Takaryuk goes to the polling station to monitor the election. And at first everyone there, election staff, other observers, is acting totally normal. But shortly before the counting is set to begin, the vibe changes completely. Out of the blue, the election staff accuses Tokaryuk of breaking the law.

[Olga Takaruk]

They kind of accused me of campaigning or telling like voters who are coming to this polling station that they should vote for Yushenko, which of course I didn't do because I knew the law very well.

[Tyler McBrien]

She's kicked out of the polling station and as she gets back to Yushchenko's offices, she learns that her experience was only the tip of the iceberg.

[Olga Takaruk]

It turned out that there were like basically at every polling station, our observers got kicked out because some of them were also beaten. Some of them were taken out of the polling stations to the forest with like bags on their heads. And they were threatened. It was horrifying.

[Tyler McBrien]

In the morning, the Moscow backed Yanukovych is declared the winner. But the results are strange and full of irregularities like late last minute high turnout in Yanukovych supporting regions. Takharyuk is still on a bus full of election observers coming back from the east. As they approach Kyiv, they start thinking.

[Olga Takaruk]

Let'S meet tonight at Maidan. Let's just like be together and like think like what we can do.

[Tyler McBrien]

Turns out they weren't the only ones who got that idea.

[Olga Takaruk]

Majority of people, they voted for Yushenko. Yuishenko is our president.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

And what do you want?

[Olga Takaruk]

I want to be free.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

I want our country to be free.

[Tyler McBrien]

And Yushchenko will make you free. I think he is.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

Within 24 hours, more than 100,000 angry Ukrainians come to the Maidan, Kyiv's main square. The crowds are draped in orange, the official color of Yushchenko's campaign. Independent pollsters report a clear Yushchenko victory. So his supporters are convinced that the Kremlin and Viktor Yanukovych rigged the election. People from all over Ukraine flock to central Kyiv to demand that the government overturn the election results. It quickly becomes an organized encampment.

[Olga Takaruk]

So it was like just seeing this self organization of people who are coming from all parts of Ukraine, different ages, like people, you know, from all walks of life, supporting the protest in the way they can, like camping, volunteering, providing food. It was really like remarkable, super inspiring.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

The protests in Ukraine grab headlines around the world. Washington watches with bated breath as Yushchenko joins the protest and sues the election commission in Ukraine's Supreme Court. And almost miraculously, the court stands with the protesters. The judges agree that the election was rigged. They order a new round of voting. And in three weeks, Yushchenko wins the presidential election fair and square with 52% of the vote.

[Tyler McBrien]

In Kiev's Independence Square, where the historic protest began over a month ago, opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko joined his supporters in a victory celebration early this morning. He thanked the hundreds of thousands who had taken to the streets to demand democratic changes. Earlier, his opponent, the Soviet style Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, looked defeated, but conceded nothing and predicted more turmoil ahead. I am ready to lead, he said, but if I lose, Yushchenko will find out what opposition really means.

[Olga Takaruk]

And I think it was a very empowering feeling for me and for many participants because it was like this first realization that people have power. And of course, it was also perceived as, as a victory over Russian interference, which clearly was supporting the other candidate.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

In Moscow, the Kremlin views Yushchenko's victory as a Western backed coup in their backyard. But in Washington and Kyiv, there is celebration. These events are dubbed the Orange Revolution after Yushchenko's campaign colors. It is a crucial turning point because Ukrainians make a choice to deliberately move away from Russia and grow its relationship with the West.

[Olga Takaruk]

The problem is that yes, most people were just like euphorias and they thought, well, that's the end of it. Our candidate has won. Now everything is going to be, you know, just like pink and rosy and it's like just going to happen on its own without our participation. And I think that was a mistake.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

We'll be back after the break.

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[Tyler McBrien]

We're back. It's now spring of 2005, a few months after the Orange Revolution. In a remarkable turn of events, Viktor Yushchenko and his supporters stood up to Russian election interference and won. After years of hardship and corruption of the Kuchma regime, there's finally hope that things will get better. American diplomat Dan Fried spent many years in the White House working on Ukraine and Eastern Europe. He says that after the revolution, the Bush White House is optimistic about Ukraine.

[Mary Serratti]

You had a stolen election and then Ukrainians simply wouldn't take it. And instead of a bloody denouement or a crackdown, there was a negotiated solution and new elections. And in the new elections, a reformist pro Western government took power.

[Tyler McBrien]

In April of that year, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko heads to the White House for his first meeting with George W. Bush.

[Dan Fried]

I welcome you here to the Oval Office. I admire your steadfast support for democratic values and principles.

[Mary Serratti]

I remember his visit to the Oval Office after the Orange Revolution. He sat with Bush and Bush asked him, what are you going to do and what do you need? And what he was hoping for, we're going to launch reforms. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. And we're going to need help in the following areas. So you Americans get it together. No, what Yushchenko said was, well, we're going to raise pensions and that'll be so popular we'll win the next elections. You know, the thought balloon over all of our heads was, oh, boy.

[Tyler McBrien]

Fried says that Yushchenko was thinking small. He didn't seem to have a long term vision for Ukraine or any policies or any ideas even that would help him reach it.

[Mary Serratti]

This is not using the political capital of the Orange Revolution to serve your country. It's not investing it in the economy. It's short term politics.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

Long story short, Yushchenko is now seen as either the best or the worst president in Ukraine's history, depending on who you ask. On one hand, Yushchenko failed to implement basically every reform that he promised he couldn't maneuver through Ukraine's aggressive and dirty politics. The result was a crisis in parliament, a lot of infighting, and the economy never got any better. On the other hand, though, he invested a lot into preserving and promoting Ukrainian culture, language and history. He did a lot of work that at the time wasn't yet mainstream and thus wasn't appreciated. But the most consequential part of Yushingo's legacy was something else. Something that has since reshaped Ukrainian and European security forever. In 2008, several years into his administration, Yushchenko has another meeting with White House officials. And this time he has a single goal.

[Mary Serratti]

And he said, we need an invitation to NATO. It'll help orient our politics It'll give us the momentum we need to do what you've been telling us to do, which is start working on the deeper transformational and structural issues. It'll give us that political mobilizing effect.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

But it's not going to be easy. NATO membership is a very divisive topic in Ukraine. One of Ukraine's biggest political parties, the Party of Regents, has extensive ties with Russia, and it vilifies NATO in the eyes of Ukrainians. Skeptics say that NATO on Russia's border is a threat to Putin and may provoke him. Here he is giving a speech in 2007.

[Benjamin Wittes]

It turns out NATO has put its.

[Tyler McBrien]

Frontline forces on our borders. I think it is obvious that NATO expansion does not have any relation with ensuring security in Europe. On the contrary, it represents a serious.

[Benjamin Wittes]

Provocation, and we have the right to.

[Tyler McBrien]

Ask against whom is this expansion intended?

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

But President Yushchenko thinks that NATO is the only thing that can protect Ukraine from its aggressive neighbor. And he is willing to bet that it will also unite Ukraine's messy politics. So Yushchenko asks NATO to give Ukraine a membership action plan to join the alliance. It's basically a reform program for countries who may want to join one day. It's nowhere close to membership, but it is a step in that direction. And when Ukraine seeks it, Georgia, another post Soviet country, follows along. They both asked for these plans in early 2008. At the time, Fiona Hill is on President Bush's National Intelligence Council. And during a briefing, Bush lets her in on a secret that as a.

[Fiona Hill]

Texan, he was a man of his word and that he had given a promise to the leaders of Georgia and Ukraine that if they asked for, you know, support for a membership action plan, he would support them.

[Tyler McBrien]

Bush's foreign policy team is split on this strategy. Fiona says that there's some, like Vice President Dick Cheney, who support the bid and don't care what the Russians think. Others think making that promise to the Ukrainians is a huge mistake.

[Fiona Hill]

A lot of us recommended against having those bids for the membership action plans to NATO by Georgia and Ukraine go to the Bucharest summit. They shouldn't have been on the agenda at all.

[Tyler McBrien]

Fiona says Ukraine is still reeling from the Orange Revolution, so it doesn't have the political momentum necessary to make it happen. And she worries that any division will only make the NATO alliance look weak.

[Fiona Hill]

There was no sign up until about January of 2008 that either Georgia or Ukraine were going to actually make that bid. In Ukraine, it wasn't actually that popular.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

She's right. In 2008, according to polling, the majority of Ukrainians either don't care about NATO membership or are against it. But what really matters is what the Russians might think about it. So it's that fear, the concern over angering Putin and by extending a hand to Ukraine that splits NATO allies.

[Fiona Hill]

First of all, it's, you know, Angela Merkel is like, we don't want to get into a spat with Putin. This is going to be the red flag to the bowl. And then what?

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

Angela Merkel is the leader of Germany, a country that at the time buys a third of its energy from Russia. Germany's entire Russia policy is based on the assumption that closer relations with Moscow will make Europe safer. Merkel is also convinced that letting Ukraine integrate with the west is a red line for Putin.

[Tyler McBrien]

Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a chilling warning that he will do everything in his power to prevent a color revolution occurring in Russia like those which have occurred in other former Soviet republics.

[Fiona Hill]

People said, I heard them say it at the time, that their bark is almost much worse than their bite. But by this time, Putin was ready to bite.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

Most Ukrainians to this day don't buy this argument. Kyiv sees this fear as an enormous weakness, the West's inability to stand up to Russia and its tyranny. But even though the NATO alliance has split on Georgia and Ukraine, Russia's decided.

[Fiona Hill]

That as a man of his word, he's going to make this work. Even though the diplomacy is tough, he makes that decision really late in the game, was just a few weeks really to go, not enough time to do a heavy lift on this diplomacy. And so he kind of wings it in Bucharest.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

We'll be back after the break.

[Benjamin Wittes]

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[Benjamin Wittes]

For more information on Deleteme and its services, go to joindeleteme.com escalation and use the code ESCALATION to get 20% off a personal plan. And you can contact them there about a special offer to protect your business, too. That's joindeleteme.com escalation code escalation. Now back to the show.

[Tyler McBrien]

We're back.

[Dan Fried]

This week, our alliance must also decide how to respond to the request by Georgia and Ukraine to participate in NATO's Membership Action Plan.

[Tyler McBrien]

So everyone goes into the Bucharest summit not knowing what's going to happen. And the White House knows it has a lot of work to do to get the other NATO members on board. American diplomat Daniel Fried is with President Bush on the morning of the summit. April 2, 2008. And still NATO has no idea what to do about Ukraine.

[Mary Serratti]

So we go into the big meeting divided about a critical issue. And we were clearly divided at the meeting. So the NATO Secretary General throws everybody out of the meeting except for principles, that is president or prime minister plus one. So I'm out. So I go out and it's Bush and Rice.

[Tyler McBrien]

That's Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

[Mary Serratti]

And they're all pressing. Angela Merkel and Condoleezza. Well, in the end, assuming they make their reforms work, isn't there future in NATO? And Merkel said, yeah, yeah. I mean, that's ultimately where we're going. And Rice said, okay, well, that. And that's how that famous language was created, that someday they'll be there. But there was no roadmap to get there.

[Tyler McBrien]

NATO will simply say that Ukraine and Georgia will one day become members, but it won't actually do anything to get them there. Germany and the US have figured out how to help Bush keep his promise.

[Mary Serratti]

Ultimately, they will be in NATO. But there was no map and there was no roadmap to get to the roadmap.

[Benjamin Wittes]

The Western military alliance also turned down a bit by Georgia and Ukraine to.

[Tyler McBrien]

Be put on an immediate punishment path to membership, but declared it wants to bring the two former Soviet republics into the fold at some point in the future. Here's one of Bush's advisers, Fiona Hill.

[Fiona Hill]

Again, you know, he basically says, but look, you know, we got something. We're thinking, you know, what did we get? We actually got a whole boatload of trouble because.

[Volodymyr Ohrysko]

And that was.

[Tyler McBrien]

That was evident immediately.

[Fiona Hill]

It was evident immediately.

[Tyler McBrien]

Four months after Ukraine and Georgia's Bids are declined at the Bucharest summit. Russia invades Georgia. Overseas, a fierce battle broke out today on the fringe of the former Soviet Union. Tonight, Secretary of State Rice is calling on Russia to end its assault on the republic of Georgia, now a U.S. ally.

[Fiona Hill]

We were all living in a bureaucratic process, and Putin's living in the world of hard power. And he basically tells the Georgians, your Western partners promised a lot. They didn't deliver. We threatened, we delivered.

[Tyler McBrien]

President Bush has told Russian leaders that.

[Benjamin Wittes]

Military action against Georgia is unacceptable.

[Tyler McBrien]

I think they also are tired of the talk of Georgia joining NATO, which is the next intended step.

[Angela Merkel]

I flew to Washington to explain that we would be next.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

That's Ukrainian diplomat Volodymyr Ohrysko. He was Ukraine's foreign minister at the time, and he remembers well how President Bush made promises that turns out he couldn't keep. Okhoryzko blames the outcome on the Europeans, who folded to the Kremlin, its gas and its influence.

[Angela Merkel]

They were afraid of spoiling relations with Russia.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

Okhrysko says that as soon as Russia invaded Georgia, he is dispatched to Washington to figure out a security deal to keep Ukraine safe.

[Angela Merkel]

After the invasion of Georgia, we realized that we would be next. And that's when we got the idea that we had to do something before it's too late. We wanted to sign a security and guarantees agreement with the US but not just a general agreement like the Budapest memorandum, but one with real guarantees from the United States of America.

[Anastasia Lopatyna]

Oh. Risko tells the Americans that Ukraine is Putin's next target. But they dismiss it.

[Angela Merkel]

They told me that's impossible. So, yeah, I blame the West. They didn't want to see the threat and still thought that somehow it would be possible to reach an agreement with Russia.

[Tyler McBrien]

The Bucharest summit has a complicated legacy. Everyone agrees it was a disaster, but a disaster for different reasons. Some, like Fiona Hill, think Ukraine shouldn't have been on the agenda at all, that Russia sees NATO as a threat against its power so it shouldn't expand so recklessly. Others think NATO should have been bolder and grown more quickly. Many Ukrainians see Bucharest as yet Another example of NATO's weakness, of the West's refusal to listen to Ukrainians when they seek protection again and again.

[Angela Merkel]

This insistence of Washington on talking to post Soviet countries through the prism of Moscow was a complete failure and a mistake.

[Tyler McBrien]

Just like the Budapest memoir and the Chikunkiev speech, the Bucharest summit goes down as another infamous moment between the US and Ukraine. Georgia and Ukraine's NATO wishes have put them squarely in Russia's crosshairs as the Kremlin plots their next move. This Patrick's solution, thrown together at Bucharest, becomes known as the worst of all possible worlds. That's NATO historian Mary Serratti. From the top of the episode, she says, the only person who's thrilled about the outcome of the Bucharest summit is Vladimir Putin.

[Volodymyr Ohrysko]

So the first thing is that it then inspires Putin to say, okay, well, NATO doesn't like to take on countries that have conflicts within their borders. Because NATO is taking on a conflict. Putin says, well, okay, Ukraine is next up. What am I going to do about Ukraine?

[Tyler McBrien]

Up to this point, Kyiv has been growing its relationship with the United States, the European Union and NATO. But now Putin is committed to bringing Ukraine back in Russia's orbit. And much like Georgia, he'll use violence to do it. Russian invasion of Ukraine Russian troops spreading.

[Benjamin Wittes]

Out throughout the strategic Crimean Peninsula.

[Tyler McBrien]

The Russian military must stand down. The aspirations of the Ukrainian people must be respected. Russia's first invasion of Ukraine. That's next time on Escalation. Escalation is a production of Lawfare and Goat Rodeo. You can follow the show on Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts to stay up to date on new episodes. And please leave us a rating and a review while you're there. Escalation's lead producer is Max Johnston. The show was reported and written by Anastasia Lapatana, Tyler McBrien, Max Johnston and Benjamin Wittes. Executive producers at Lawfare are Benjamin Wittes, Natalie Orpet and Scott Anderson. Executive producers at Goat Rodeo are Max Johnston, Ian Enright and Megan Adolsky. Additional production assistants at Goat Rodeo From Isabel Kirby McGowan, Rebecca Seidel, Kara Schillen, Jay Venables and Hazel Hoffman. Additional production assistants at Lawfare from Anna Hickey, Patrick Cole and Quinta Jurecik. Sound design, scoring, mixing and engineering from Max Johnston and Ian Enright. Our theme is Enigma by Charlie Edwards. Additional music from Blue Dot Sessions and Alibi Music. Our cover art was designed by Marie Kinovich.

[Benjamin Wittes]

Escalation is presented by Deleteme, the industry leader in personal data removal. Deleteme is trusted by 20% of the Fortune 500 and by federal, state and county courts across the United States. For more information on Delete Me and its services for individuals and businesses, go to joindeleteme.com escalation.