Lawfare Podcast Archive: Brian Winter on the Imminent Election Crisis in Brazil

Date: September 13, 2025 (original interview from September 2022)
Host: Tyler McBrien (Managing Editor, Lawfare)
Guest: Brian Winter (Editor in Chief, Americas Quarterly)

Overview

This archival Lawfare episode revisits the tense days before Brazil’s 2022 presidential election—a contest between far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and leftist former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Tyler McBrien interviews Brazil expert Brian Winter to unpack Brazil’s recent history, the personalities, campaign issues, risks of electoral turmoil, and the global implications of the outcome. With poignant hindsight given the subsequent January 8 attacks and Bolsonaro’s 2025 conviction, this episode anticipates the potential for crisis in Brazil’s democracy and reflects on what was at stake as the world watched Latin America’s largest nation.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Main Players and Their Legacies

[03:40]

• Jair Bolsonaro:
  • Incumbent president, dubbed "Trump of the tropics."
  • Four years marked by pandemic, economic struggle, and “constant institutional tensions” as he clashed with the media, Supreme Court, and international actors.
• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (“Lula”):
  • Served from 2003-2010 during Brazil’s economic “golden age,” largely due to a China-driven commodities boom.
  • Credited with social ascent of millions but faces skepticism, even among allies, about replicating prior successes under tougher conditions.

Quote:

“Lula… tends to say… you just have to look at what I did.” — Brian Winter [05:30]

Policy Visions and Their Gaps

[05:30–08:04]

• Both candidates offered scant policy detail in 2022:
  • Lula: Defers to his past record—lauds social programs, fiscal responsibility, and claims “everybody won” under his term.
  • Bolsonaro: Promotes business-friendly, conservative policies, but reality diverged—business community disillusioned due to “constant disorganization and conflict.”
• Social issues (e.g., “whether boys should wear blue and girls should wear pink”), sometimes overtook economic reforms like tax overhaul.

Quote:

“…they say, you know, the Bolsonaro years have been kind of a mess with a president who, in their telling or in their words, has often been more concerned about whether boys should wear blue and girls should wear pink, to quote a famous quote from his women's affairs minister, than issues like tax reform, for example.” — Brian Winter [07:25]

Bolsonaro’s Pandemic Response and Its Political Fallout

[08:19–11:19]

• COVID Losses: Over 670,000 Brazilians died, among world’s 20 worst by per capita metrics.
• Bolsonaro’s Leadership: Denied science, downplayed vaccines, promoted unproven cures.
  • Callous remarks lingered: “I’m not a grave digger;” country needed to stop being a “country of sissies.”
• Economic recovery underway (falling unemployment/inflation), but polls showed enduring resentment that hurt Bolsonaro’s prospects.
• Regional Pattern: Incumbents across Latin America facing historic voter backlash—incumbents lost 13 straight elections.

Quote:

“I think it’s very fair to say, denied science, underestimated, downplayed the value of the vaccine… said things like, when asked about his responsibility for the pandemic, ‘I'm not a grave digger, and saying that the country needed to stop being a country of sissies.’ And these are things that I think people have not forgotten.” — Brian Winter [09:19]

Socio-Economic Context: Boom, Bust, and Disillusionment

[11:40–14:47]

• 2000s: Period of hope—35 million joined the middle class, Brazil seen as finally achieving its potential.
• 2010s: Rapid reversal. Lula’s successor Dilma Rousseff presided over economic and political decline.
  • Staggering stat: Brazil is poorer per capita than a decade prior.
  • 33 million Brazilians suffering from hunger in 2022 (in a nation of 210 million).
• Voter Mood: Many look back to Lula’s era for hope, despite questions about future viability.

Quote:

“Brazil is actually poorer today on a per capita basis than it was 10 years ago. That's an astonishing statistic.” — Brian Winter [13:12]

Election Outlook and Poll Credibility

[14:47–18:26]

• Polling: Historically reliable; predicted Bolsonaro’s 2018 win with accuracy.
• 2022 Race: Lula maintained a consistent 6–12 point lead; third-party hopes fizzled.
• Bolsonaro’s support may be understated (some voters shy), but Winter still predicts a Lula victory—margin likely 5–10 points.

Quote:

“There was some speculation that perhaps a third party candidate could make waves, maybe someone kind of in the center, center right space, but that really hasn't happened.” — Brian Winter [16:27]

The Imminent Election Crisis: Fears of Institutional Breakdown

[22:30–25:04]

• Bolsonaro’s Rhetoric:
  • Regularly undermines faith in electronic voting, demands paper trail.
  • Refers to Lula as a “criminal threat” only able to win via fraud.
  • States only possible futures are “prison, death, or victory.”
• Likelihood of Coup Attempt: High if margin is close; less likely with landslide.
• Crisis Scenario: Echoes Trump’s post-2020 tactics—would challenge result, wield isolated incidents as proof of mass fraud, sowing discord online and in institutions.

Quote:

“He has said that he will only accept a result that he deems to be auditable, which means he wants a paper copy essentially of each vote. That will not happen…” — Brian Winter [22:55]

Anatomy of a Possible Power Grab & Democratic Safeguards

[25:21–31:09]

• Brazil’s Institutional Landscape:
  • Power is diffuse; the presidency is one of many centers.
  • Younger democracy (since 1989), but institutions retain resilience.
• Risks:
  • Brazil’s tradition of military involvement is a critical difference vs the US.
  • Bolsonaro heavily integrated retired and some active duty officers into government.
  • Uncertainty persists over whether the armed forces would back a coup.
• Winter’s View: Most institutions likely to defend democracy, but chaos possible; outcome far from certain.

Quote:

“Coups or disruptions to democracy in the 21st century… don't look like they did in the 20th century. We're not going to see, I don't think, tanks rolling through the streets of Brasília… I think it would be a more simple scenario that would echo in some ways what Donald Trump attempted to do here…” — Brian Winter [26:51]

Global Stakes: The Amazon, Geopolitics, and Regional Trends

[31:09–34:24]

• Amazon: Approaches to deforestation and climate differ sharply:
  • Bolsonaro permissive; Lula’s previous tenure saw 70% drop in deforestation.
• Geopolitics:
  • Under Bolsonaro, Brazil balanced between US/China, but Lula might shift further towards Beijing.
  • Leftward shift would solidify Latin America's regional “pink tide.”
  • Synchronized left-leaning governments could affect trade, alliances, and climate policy globally.

Quote:

“What happens in Brazil is very important to the rest of Latin America… from management of the Amazon… to the future of climate change… these are two candidates, Lula and Bolsonaro, who have vastly different ideas on how to manage that challenge…” — Brian Winter [31:29]

Election Day and What to Watch

[34:24–36:44]

• Brian Winter recounts years of covering Brazilian elections, planning to monitor the first round from the US; expects a tense atmosphere.
• International actors and Brazilian civil society most concerned with peaceful, lawful process—less concerned with candidate than with democracy’s survival.

Quote:

“The last thing we need in today's world, where democracy is under stress all over the Western world, is a major setback in a country as big and as important as Brazil. So we'll see. It's going to be one to keep an eye on for sure.” — Brian Winter [36:07]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Lula’s campaign:

  “Instead of asking what I'm going to do, you just have to look at what I did.” — Lula da Silva via Brian Winter [05:30]

• On Bolsonaro’s COVID response:

  “I'm not a grave digger… the country needed to stop being a country of sissies.” — Jair Bolsonaro via Brian Winter [09:19]

• Describing Brazilian disillusionment:

  “There was a sense in the 2000s that the future had finally arrived. And then… things started to fall apart.” — Brian Winter [12:27]

• On the real risk to democracy:

  “It’s harder for a leader with authoritarian intentions to make a grab for power in Brazil than in countries… that don’t have the same tradition of separation of powers… That said, it’s not impossible.” — Brian Winter [25:41]

• On the weight of this election for the world:

  “For most of the global community… the biggest stakes in this Brazil election probably involve the Amazon.” — Brian Winter [34:00]

Timestamps of Key Segments

• [03:40] – Character profiles & what’s at stake
• [05:30] – Policy (non-)details and campaign contrasts
• [08:19] – Pandemic’s toll and incumbent challenges
• [11:40] – Economic context, national mood, and historical cycles
• [14:47] – Polls, predictions, and likeliest scenarios
• [22:55] – Election crisis: possible coup dynamics and Bolsonaro’s rhetoric
• [25:21] – Institutional safeguards and the military question
• [31:29] – Regional and global stakes, especially the Amazon
• [34:34] – Election day expectations and closing thoughts

Conclusion

The episode offers crucial background for understanding Brazil’s 2022 election amid looming threats to its democracy. It illuminates how history, economics, personalities, and institutions interwove in a fraught moment for Brazil, with powerful reverberations beyond its borders. As subsequent events tragically confirmed, the concerns flagged by Brian Winter proved prescient—underscoring the enduring challenges faced by democratic institutions under pressure worldwide.