Summary of "Lawfare Archive: El Salvador’s President Cracks Down on Gangs—and Democracy"

Episode Release Date: March 22, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of The Lawfare Podcast, host Quinta Jurecic engages in an in-depth discussion with Manuel Melendez Sanchez, a PhD candidate in political science at Harvard University. The conversation centers on El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele’s aggressive crackdown on gangs and the consequential impacts on democracy and human rights within the country.

Background: The Rise of Gangs in El Salvador

The episode begins with an overview of the historical context that allowed gangs, particularly the maras such as Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) and Barrio 18, to gain significant power in El Salvador. Manuel Melendez Sanchez explains:

"The gangs have a long history, but the modern history of these groups really starts in the 1990s... This created a space where these gangs began to recruit and grow, eventually controlling entire neighborhoods."
(06:20)

Nayib Bukele’s Ascendancy to Power

Bukele emerged as a non-traditional candidate in 2019, breaking the dominance of El Salvador’s two major parties. His youthful image and anti-establishment rhetoric resonated with many Salvadorans who were disillusioned with the existing political system.

"Bukele frames himself as an anti-establishment candidate... His unique and youthful communication strategy, especially on social media, has reinforced his image as different from the old system."
(17:05)

The Crackdown on Gangs: Strategies and Execution

Since March 2022, Bukele has implemented a state of emergency granting the government expansive powers to arrest and detain suspected gang members. This crackdown has led to nearly 70,000 arrests in a country of 7 million, meaning approximately 1% of the population is currently imprisoned.

"Over the past 12 months, El Salvador has conducted about 70,000 arrests... This crackdown has succeeded in defeating these massive, violent criminal groups, at least for now."
(04:54)

Public Perception vs. Human Rights Concerns

Despite reports of widespread human rights abuses, including torture, inmate deaths, and overcrowded prisons, Bukele maintains a high approval rating exceeding 80%. Manuel attributes this paradox to the population's prioritization of security over civil liberties.

"88.2% of Salvadorans say they currently feel very safe... 95% attribute their sense of safety to Bukele's crackdown."
(43:10)

Bukele’s Communication Strategy and International Relations

Bukele leverages social media, particularly Twitter, to project a modern and relatable image both domestically and internationally. His savvy use of memes, English-language tweets, and direct engagement with global figures like Elon Musk has bolstered his international reputation.

"Bukele is able to frame himself as a head of state that's very modern, very forward-looking, very hip... This has been incredibly effective for his standing and reputation internationally."
(24:35)

Comparisons to Global Populist Leaders

Manuel draws parallels between Bukele and other populist leaders, notably comparing his communication style to that of Donald Trump while emphasizing Bukele’s unique ability to resonate with younger audiences and effectively utilize digital platforms.

"Bukele is part of this wave of populist, anti-establishment leaders... His use of social media is a match made in heaven with his personal qualities."
(27:04)

Potential Long-Term Consequences and Future Outlook

While the crackdown appears successful in the short term, Manuel expresses concerns about its sustainability and potential future repercussions. Drawing comparisons to Peru’s political crisis in the 1990s, he warns that the erosion of democratic institutions could lead to prolonged authoritarianism.

"The lesson from Peru is that democratic institutions are very easy to throw away during a crisis but very difficult to restore once the crisis has passed."
(66:36)

He also highlights risks such as the possible resurgence of gang activity, the infiltration of larger international cartels, and the societal challenges posed by mass re-incarceration.

"Is it possible that the Salvadoran government is going to face a situation similar to the 1990s when a massive influx of people released from prison could lead to new criminal activities?"
(61:19)

Conclusion: A Cautionary Tale for Democracies

The episode concludes with a reflection on the delicate balance between security and democratic freedoms. Manuel underscores the importance of safeguarding democratic institutions to prevent the slide into long-term authoritarianism, using Peru’s experience as a cautionary example.

"Once you've thrown out your democratic institutions, those things are very hard to get back... El Salvador now finds itself in a situation where it no longer has democratic institutions."
(72:06)

Notable Quotes

• Manuel Melendez Sanchez on Gangs:
  "The gangs have a long history... they begin to recruit more members and they begin to grow."
  (06:20)

• On Bukele’s Popularity:
  "Bukele's approval rating never seems to dip under 80%. That is incredible."
  (30:05)

• On Human Rights Abuses:
  "There is mounting evidence of violence inside of these prisons... conditions inside of these prisons must be extremely dire."
  (40:44)

• On the Future of Democracy in El Salvador:
  "What happens in Peru is before long, after a couple of years, Fujimori really has more or less defeated these guerrillas... El Salvador now finds itself in a situation where it no longer has democratic institutions."
  (66:36)

Implications for Global Democracy

Bukele’s tenure in El Salvador serves as a microcosm for broader global trends where leaders prioritize security over democratic norms, often leading to the erosion of institutional checks and balances. The discussion emphasizes the need for vigilance in protecting democratic institutions to prevent similar scenarios worldwide.

Final Thoughts

The episode offers a comprehensive analysis of Nayib Bukele’s strategies to combat gang violence in El Salvador and the accompanying democratic challenges. It serves as both an informative case study and a warning for other nations grappling with similar issues, highlighting the fragile interplay between security imperatives and the preservation of democratic freedoms.