The Lawfare Podcast – Lawfare Archive: Hezbollah, Lebanon, Israel, Iran

Original Air Date: October 2, 2024 (archived March 7, 2026)
Host: Benjamin Wittes
Guests: Firas Maksad (Middle East Institute), Natan Sachs (Brookings Institution), Scott R. Anderson (Lawfare)

Overview

This episode, unearthed as a Lawfare archive, features a deep discussion on the profound escalation between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon during late 2024, the subsequent Iranian response through missile barrages on Israel, and the potential for further regional conflict. The conversation, guided by Benjamin Wittes, offers expert analysis on the strategic, legal, political, and humanitarian dimensions of this rapidly evolving crisis, incorporating perspectives rooted in regional history, military planning, and international law.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Scope and Scale of Israeli Operations in Lebanon

• Shifting Away from Border Containment (06:20–08:49)

  • Until 10 days prior to the podcast, the conflict was largely a border war, limited to a 10–20 km zone.
  • A significant shift occurred as Israeli strikes extended deeper, targeting Hezbollah’s communications (pagers, walkie-talkies) and senior military figures, culminating in the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's Secretary General.
  • Firas Maksad draws a regional historical parallel: “This reminds many Lebanese of the 82 to 85 time period when Sharon started out... with a limited operation, went all the way to Beirut..." (07:50).

• Hezbollah's Leadership Crisis and Resilience (09:28–10:48)

  • The group has built-in personnel redundancies, but leadership decapitation has left Hezbollah disoriented. Notably, it struggled to issue timely communication post-attacks.
  • Maksad: "Clearly they're having a problem communicating... they've been to date, unable to elect a successor to him [Nasrallah]." (09:38).
  • Despite this, Hezbollah’s layered structure suggests eventual regrouping, but a need for time before mounting a counter-campaign.

2. Lebanese Domestic Politics and Civilian Impact

• Highly Polarized Society (11:45–15:10)

  • The majority of Lebanon’s Shia population deeply mourn Nasrallah; others (especially pro-Western factions) see an opportunity for political reset.
  • Maksad: “If you think you understand Lebanon and Lebanese politics, then you probably don’t understand Lebanon and Lebanese politics.” (11:49).
  • Political elites are cautiously watching major international actors for cues, with key players (Nabih Biri, Walid Jumbla, etc.) hesitant to make drastic moves amid instability.

• Humanitarian Concerns (15:10–17:34)

  • Lebanon now faces nearly a million internally displaced, adding to its immense Syrian and Palestinian refugee populations.
  • Displaced Hezbollah loyalists now shelter in areas less sympathetic to the group, creating ripe conditions for internal strife: “Much of the southern suburbs of Beirut are being plummeted and destroyed... this is a very volatile domestic situation.” (16:24).

3. Strategic Israeli Planning vs. Tactical Opportunity

• Was This War Inevitable or Opportunistic? (17:35–24:49)

  • Extensive Israeli plans against Hezbollah have been prepared for 18 years.
  • Disagreement remains: Did Israel execute a grand plan, or "blunder" stepwise into this broader war after a “cascading use or lose effect”? (18:43–21:43).
  • Wittes and Sachs discuss the unusual operational sequencing and pressure from Israeli internal politics to act.

• Nasrallah’s Strategic Missteps (24:49–28:33)

  • Maksad critiques Nasrallah’s leadership: “He has fell into at least two strategic blunders... The 2006 war... and this last war... this support front from Lebanon... calibrated, as I referenced, kind of a border war... Look where we are today, a million plus... pushed out of their homes. Lebanon has become the primary front and Nasrallah is no longer with us." (24:58–25:58).
  • Questions remain whether Nasrallah truly called the shots or was constrained by Iran.

4. Israeli Domestic Imperatives and Security Concerns

• The Drive to Secure the North (29:04–32:45)
  • Restoring security for northern Israeli towns was a “political imperative,” not just a military one.
  • Sachs: “The demand that they be allowed to return home was really a political imperative, was something that had to be addressed. There was no way around that." (29:16).
  • Israelis are determined to no longer tolerate a well-armed Hezbollah presence on their border.

5. Hezbollah’s Arsenal: Degraded, But Still a Threat?

• Assessment of Military Capabilities (41:04–44:18)
  • Israeli attacks have degraded both leadership and munitions, but the exact scale is unclear.
  • Sachs notes the unprecedented challenge posed by Hezbollah’s stock of rockets, especially precision-guided munitions: “It would be a kind of threat, or at least deterrent, that Israel has not faced in the past.” (43:16).
  • Despite efforts, Hezbollah still retains a considerable arsenal.

6. Regional Escalation: Iranian Missile Barrages

• Nature and Impact of Iranian Attacks (44:18–49:22)
  • Iran launched significant missile barrages into Israel—second such direct attack—with defenses largely preventing casualties.
  • Sachs on the strategic implications: “There was a line crossed in April... The first time... Iran attacked Israel directly. This time it was different... a very different kind of context.” (45:41–46:38).
  • The Israeli response remains uncertain but is likely.

7. Israeli Domestic Politics: Netanyahu’s Fortunes Amid Crisis

• Political Repercussions for Netanyahu (49:22–53:28)
  • Netanyahu has survived intense domestic criticism post-October 7, now buoyed somewhat by perceived operational successes.
  • Sachs: “It is a very significant issue... a sense of potency... things that were so dramatically eroded on October 7th. And in that sense, of course, Netanyahu benefits from that.” (50:13).
  • Yet his staying power is rooted in coalition dynamics and the relative weakness of the opposition, not public approval.

8. U.S. Role: Dilemma and Discord

• Reluctant Endorsement (53:28–58:12)

  • The U.S. administration was not supportive of Israel’s military escalation in Lebanon, seeking restraint and limited operations.
  • Reporting indicates Biden officials were caught off guard by the initial Israeli strikes and pressured for minimization of ground campaigns.
  • Wittes: “My strong suspicion... is that they're not very happy this is happening, even if they accept it... but they are intent on trying to keep it from escalating further.” (57:16).

• Divergence of U.S. and Israeli Interests (58:12–60:30)

  • U.S. sees successful air defense as reason for de-escalation, while Israel is motivated to re-establish deterrence against direct Iranian strikes.
  • “There is just very limited prospect of the US persuading Israel not to respond in a serious way to what happened today.” (58:54).

9. International Law: The War and Self-Defense

• Legal Justifications (60:30–66:52)
  • Wittes and Sachs outline that, under international law, Israel’s reprisals against Hezbollah are justified as responses to ongoing attacks. Iran’s claims are weaker, especially as it hasn’t formally made a self-defense argument, instead framing its actions as reprisal or revenge.
  • Wittes: “There’s no rule that says you're not allowed to escalate. And so there's... questions with each individual strike whether the collateral damage was appropriate..." (61:04).
  • Sachs: “Israel has a much stronger case of some sort of self-defense basis…” (65:34).

Notable Quotes

• On Lebanese Politics:
  "If you think you understand Lebanon and Lebanese politics, then you probably don’t understand Lebanon and Lebanese politics."
  — Firas Maksad (11:49)

• On Israeli Operations:
  "This is a very concerted, deliberate effort to degrade Hezbollah considerably and deal a real blow to what has been Israel's most formidable conventional force."
  — Natan Sachs (22:16)

• On Nasrallah’s Fate:
  "As gifted as Nasrallah has been... perhaps less so when it comes to strategic thinking and planning."
  — Firas Maksad (25:54)

• On the Scale of Displacement:
  "Lebanon has... about a million internally displaced Lebanese as a result of this latest conflict... seeking shelter in areas that have no love loss for Nasrallah and Hezbollah."
  — Firas Maksad (15:10–16:24)

• On U.S.-Israeli Differences:
  "They're not very happy this is happening, even if they accept it and aren't willing to publicly rebuke Israel..."
  — Benjamin Wittes (57:16)

• On Israeli Political Dynamics:
  "He has no intention of doing so [resigning as Prime Minister]. He has been operating tirelessly against it, and he's had a major, major success in the last week..."
  — Natan Sachs (51:12)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Background and Summary – 03:28–05:00
• Expansion of Israeli Operations in Lebanon – 06:20–08:49
• Hezbollah’s Leadership Crisis – 09:28–10:48
• Lebanese Political and Civilian Response – 11:45–17:34
• Israeli Strategic Planning and the “Pager Operation” – 17:35–24:49
• Critique of Nasrallah’s Strategy – 24:49–28:33
• Domestic Israeli Pressures and Security Imperatives – 29:04–32:45
• Assessment of Hezbollah’s Military Degradation – 41:04–44:18
• Iranian Missile Barrage and Regional Escalation – 44:18–49:22
• Netanyahu's Political Position – 49:22–53:28
• U.S. Policy, Diplomacy, and Legal Perspectives – 53:28–66:52

Memorable Moments

• The analogy to Lebanon’s 1982–85 war, emphasizing regional historical patterns.
• Candid discussion of the limits of Lebanese political understanding, and the complexity of internal divisions.
• The remarkable effectiveness—but also limits—of Israeli intelligence and planning, as contrasted with failures in Gaza.
• Honest wrestling with the question of “decapitation” as military strategy—Hydra vs. Charles I (08:49).
• The tension between U.S. aims for restraint and Israeli desires for decisive deterrence against Iran.

Conclusion

This episode provides a rich, nuanced exploration of the tactical, strategic, and humanitarian complexities surrounding the 2024–25 Israel–Hezbollah–Iran crisis. With a blend of historical perspective, legal insight, and on-the-ground realities, the panel offers essential listening—and reading—for anyone seeking to understand the stakes and uncertainties driving the region today.