The Lawfare Podcast: The Authoritarian Playbook in 2025

Released on March 2, 2025, The Lawfare Podcast hosted by Benjamin Wittes delves into the pressing concerns surrounding the potential rise of authoritarianism in the United States. In the episode titled "Lawfare Archive: The Authoritarian Playbook in 2025," Wittes engages in a comprehensive discussion with Genevieve Nadeau and Erika Nuland, authors of the influential report, The Authoritarian Playbook for 2025: How an Authoritarian President Will Dismantle Our Democracy and What We Can Do to Protect It. This episode meticulously explores the strategies an authoritarian leader might employ to erode democratic institutions and the measures citizens and policymakers can take to safeguard democracy.

1. Introduction to the Authoritarian Playbook

Benjamin Wittes opens the discussion by providing context about the Authoritarian Playbook, emphasizing its evolution and relevance in the contemporary political landscape:

"This is not the first publication with the Authoritarian Playbook in the title... Our more recent report, the authoritarian playbook for 2025, focuses on the threat the nation is facing should we choose to elect another authoritarian to the White House come 2025."
[05:27]

Genevieve Nadeau elaborates on the origins of the playbook, highlighting its foundation in historical and global examples of authoritarian tactics:

"The original Authoritarian Playbook outlines the sort of common key tactics that authoritarians use... Our report doesn't cover everything Trump or his allies say, but key categories of threats that he has articulated and that we think everyone should take seriously."
[08:14]

2. Evolution of Authoritarian Strategies

Benjamin Wittes draws parallels between his previous analyses and the current situation, questioning how the threat has intensified:

"I feel like you're in a better position today than we were... why are we in a better position today?"
[10:58]

Erika Nuland responds by underscoring the enhanced preparedness of authoritarian actors, noting the establishment of robust infrastructures and weakened institutional safeguards:

"Authoritarians are better prepared. They have spent seven or eight years building out infrastructure, understanding the guardrails and how to work around them... There's anticipatory obedience from folks in and outside of politics."
[13:22]

3. Key Components of the Authoritarian Playbook 2025

Genevieve Nadeau outlines the central focus of the updated playbook, emphasizing Trump’s specific promises and their alignment with authoritarian tactics:

"We focused first on what Trump himself and some of his close allies and advisors are saying... we put those promises in the context of the original playbook and the key tactics that we see authoritarians use consistently."
[08:14]

Erika Nuland discusses the detailed plans laid out by influential groups like the Heritage Foundation, which complement Trump’s objectives:

"The Heritage Foundation issued a 900-page document that lays out through very specific plans... This isn't just bluster. This is for real."
[16:56]

4. Regulatory Mechanisms as Tools of Authoritarianism

The conversation shifts to the use of regulatory tools to undermine democratic institutions and target opponents.

Erika Nuland provides a concrete example with the proposed Schedule F executive order:

"Recommendation of reissuing Trump's Schedule F executive order to permit discharge of non-performing employees... showing loyalty as the preeminent criteria for federal workers."
[16:56]

Genevieve Nadeau emphasizes the broader implications of such policies, framing them as part of a strategy to remake the federal government to serve personal and political interests rather than the public good:

"Trump is really promising a remaking of the federal government in a way that is meant to serve him personally and politically... his second term, if he gets one, is going to be all about retribution."
[19:46]

5. Justice Department and the Prosecution of Political Opponents

A critical discussion unfolds around the role of the Justice Department (DOJ) in potentially prosecuting political adversaries, raising concerns about the erosion of the rule of law.

Benjamin Wittes highlights the unprecedented nature of current DOJ actions against Trump, questioning their implications for democracy:

"The Justice Department is, for the first time in American history, prosecuting the principal prospective political opponent of the incumbent president."
[22:59]

Erika Nuland counters by distinguishing current DOJ actions from authoritarian misuse, asserting that prosecutions are based on legitimate legal grounds and overseen by independent courts:

"The prosecutions are being administered by the courts... the Department of Justice is prosecuting through the special counsel, but it's being overseen by the courts."
[27:42]

However, she warns against potential future abuses:

"Trump is using the appellate process to delay proceedings... trying to use the trial as a tool to influence the election."
[40:49]

6. Building a Pro-Democracy Coalition

The hosts and authors discuss strategies to counteract the authoritarian threat, primarily focusing on coalition-building.

Genevieve Nadeau stresses the importance of a broad, cross-ideological coalition that prioritizes democracy and the rule of law over partisan interests:

"Building a pro-democracy coalition... a broad cross-ideological coalition of folks who disagree on policies but uphold the importance of our democracy and the rule of law."
[43:23]

Erika Nuland adds that this coalition must reject political violence and emphasize solidarity among democratic forces:

"Rejecting violence at all costs... maintaining a broad pro-democracy coalition is essential."
[44:45]

7. Addressing Optimism and Historical Precedents

In response to skepticism about the efficacy of these efforts, Wittes references historical instances where authoritarian figures were peacefully removed from power, questioning the necessity of heightened vigilance.

Erika Nuland rebuts by asserting the unique nature of Trump’s challenges to democracy and the continuous threats posed by entrenched authoritarian tendencies:

"We were right... our mission is to prevent our democracy from declining into a more authoritarian form of government."
[47:52]

Genevieve Nadeau reinforces the gradual erosion of democratic safeguards, invoking the "frog boiling" analogy to illustrate how incremental changes can lead to significant authoritarian shifts:

"It's important to take the little steps towards authoritarianism seriously... decline starts somewhere."
[50:51]

8. Concluding Insights

The episode concludes with a somber reflection on the challenges ahead and a reaffirmation of the necessity to remain proactive in defending democratic institutions.

Genevieve Nadeau warns against complacency, emphasizing the dangers of re-electing leaders who have previously exhibited authoritarian tendencies:

"Re-electing someone who tried dangerous things during the first administration is a really dangerous thing."
[52:11]

Erika Nuland highlights the concept of "anticipatory obedience," where the populace begins to acquiesce to authoritarian measures, making resistance increasingly difficult:

"The decision to push back feels different when you don't think he's going to actually leave... more likely to be in that situation four years from now."
[53:47]

Benjamin Wittes wraps up the discussion by acknowledging the complexity of the situation and the critical need for vigilance and collective action to preserve democracy.

Key Takeaways

• Preparedness of Authoritarians: The Authoritarian Playbook for 2025 outlines a well-prepared strategy by potential authoritarian leaders to undermine democratic institutions through specific promises and legislative maneuvers.

• Regulatory and Legal Tools: Beyond overt actions like pardoning allies or attacking the media, authoritarians may employ regulatory mechanisms and the justice system to target political opponents and erode checks and balances.

• Importance of Coalition Building: A robust, cross-ideological pro-democracy coalition is essential to resist authoritarian tendencies. This coalition must prioritize the rule of law and democratic principles above partisan interests.

• Gradual Erosion of Democracy: Authoritarian shifts often occur incrementally, making it crucial to address each step seriously to prevent the overall decline of democratic safeguards.

• Vigilance Against "Anticipatory Obedience": As authoritarian measures gain traction, public acquiescence can become self-reinforcing, necessitating continuous resistance and advocacy for democratic norms.

This episode serves as a cautionary tale, urging listeners to recognize and counteract the subtle and overt tactics that threaten the fabric of American democracy. By understanding the strategies outlined in the Authoritarian Playbook, citizens and policymakers alike can better prepare to defend democratic institutions and values.