The Lawfare Podcast: “Big Tech in Taiwan” with Sam Bresnick – Detailed Summary

Episode Information:

• Title: Lawfare Daily: ‘Big Tech in Taiwan’ with Sam Bresnick
• Host: Justin Sherman, The Lawfare Institute
• Guest: Sam Bresnik, Research Fellow at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET)
• Release Date: August 7, 2025

1. Introduction to the Episode

In this episode of The Lawfare Podcast, host Justin Sherman engages in a comprehensive discussion with Sam Bresnik, a research fellow at Georgetown University's CSET. The focus centers on Bresnik’s recent report titled “Big Tech in Taiwan: Beyond Semiconductors”, which examines the intricate relationships between major U.S. technology firms and Taiwan, especially in the context of potential geopolitical conflicts involving China.

2. Background on Sam Bresnik and His Research

[03:18] Sam Bresnik:

"I have a background in China studies… most of my work at CSET concentrates on how the Chinese government and the Chinese military are thinking about the national security applications of artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies."

Bresnik has been with CSET for over two and a half years, specializing in how China's advancements in AI and other technologies intersect with national security concerns. His current research delves into the role of big technology companies in the context of geopolitical conflicts, particularly focusing on Taiwan.

3. Overview of the Report: “Big Tech in Taiwan: Beyond Semiconductors”

[04:03] Justin Sherman:

"The report is out from CSET at Georgetown, titled Big Tech in Taiwan: Beyond Semiconductors, and it looks at how seventeen leading U.S. tech companies are economically and operationally entangled with Taiwan."

The report builds upon a previous study that analyzed U.S. tech companies’ footprints in Russia and Ukraine. The Taiwan-focused study reveals that while these companies have significant ties to Taiwan, supporting Taiwan in a conflict scenario would pose greater challenges compared to their support for Ukraine during Russia's invasion.

4. Key Findings of the Report

a. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

[06:14] Sam Bresnik:

"Google was the company with the highest degree of FDI… about one point four billion dollars of FDI in Taiwan."

Despite substantial investments, FDI represents a small fraction of these companies' global expenditures. For instance, Google's $1.4 billion investment in Taiwan is just over 1% of its total FDI.

b. Research and Development (R&D) Centers and Data Centers

[14:16] Sam Bresnik:

"Taiwan has become an important hardware research and development base for companies like Apple and Google… Taiwan is a leader in advanced semiconductor production."

R&D activities in Taiwan are primarily focused on hardware due to the island's pivotal role in the global electronics supply chain. Companies like Apple and Google are expanding their data center presence in Taiwan, highlighting its growing significance beyond just semiconductors.

c. Supply Chain Exposure

[17:10] Sam Bresnik:

"Supply chains seem to be the number one pain point for these companies… it's going to be very difficult to completely remove the risk to these companies from a Taiwan-China contingency."

The report emphasizes that Taiwan is central to the global electronic supply chain. A conflict involving Taiwan could severely disrupt the manufacturing and production capabilities of these tech giants.

d. Workforce Footprint in Taiwan

[26:02] Sam Bresnik:

"Google has the biggest Taiwan-based workforce… thousands of employees from over thirty countries in Taiwan."

Google leads in workforce presence, with diverse employees from numerous countries. Other companies have varying levels of technical and service-oriented staff, reflecting their specific operational needs in Taiwan.

5. Geopolitical Risks Identified

a. Supply Chain Vulnerability

[17:10] Sam Bresnik:

"These companies from both China and Taiwan play such an important role in electronics manufacturing… a conflict could potentially imperil production of electronics on Taiwan."

The intertwined supply chains between China and Taiwan mean that any geopolitical instability could disrupt global technology production, affecting millions of consumers and numerous industries.

b. Coercion and Retaliation Risks

[07:51] Sam Bresnik:

"The decision to support Taiwan could expose companies to Chinese coercion and retaliation, making it harder to continue operations."

Supporting Taiwan in a conflict could lead to direct consequences from China, including pressure tactics and economic retaliation against the tech firms involved.

c. Dependence on Advanced Semiconductors

While the report primarily focuses on broader supply chain issues, it acknowledges the critical importance of Taiwan's advanced semiconductors. Losing access to these would have profound implications for global technology infrastructure.

6. Comparing Support for Ukraine vs. Taiwan

[04:41] Sam Bresnik:

"It is going to be much more difficult for U.S. technology companies to support Taiwan than it was for them to support Ukraine for a variety of reasons."

During Russia's invasion of Ukraine, U.S. tech companies like Starlink and Palantir provided substantial support with technologies that aided Ukraine's defense efforts. However, replicating this level of support for Taiwan is more complex due to the deeper economic and operational ties these companies have with China and Taiwan.

[34:22] Sam Bresnik:

"For the first time with the Ukraine-Russia war, we saw technology companies… taking a strong position in a modern conflict."

The Ukraine conflict marked a turning point where civilian-focused tech companies became active national security players. However, the unique economic entanglements with China make a similar response for Taiwan more challenging.

7. Companies’ Motivations to Expand Taiwan Footprints

[31:35] Sam Bresnik:

"These companies think they can make money in Taiwan… the risks are not existential for them, and could lead to solid profits growth."

Despite geopolitical tensions, U.S. tech firms continue to invest in Taiwan due to its advanced technological landscape and the economic benefits it offers. The potential for growth and innovation often outweighs the perceived security risks.

[33:34] Sam Bresnik:

"Given that the risks are not existential and war is not imminent, it makes business sense for them to expand in Taiwan."

Companies perceive Taiwan as a stable and technologically advanced market, making it an attractive location for investment and expansion.

8. De-Risking Supply Chains: Challenges and Progress

[19:29] Sam Bresnik:

"De-risking isn't just as easy as plopping a new factory outside of China or Taiwan… it’s going to take years and investments to move the supply ecosystems into other places."

Efforts to diversify supply chains away from China and Taiwan face significant hurdles. While companies are moving some operations to Southeast Asia and India, the deep-rooted infrastructure and expertise in China and Taiwan make complete diversification a lengthy and complex process.

[40:04] Sam Bresnik:

"The government can help companies identify opportunities in different countries and facilitate business-to-business dialogues."

Bresnik suggests that the U.S. government has a role in aiding tech companies to de-risk their supply chains by exploring new markets and fostering international collaborations.

9. Recommendations for the U.S. Government

[40:04] Sam Bresnik:

"The government can help in de-risking by identifying opportunities, facilitating business dialogues, and better utilizing government contracts to align incentives."

To mitigate the risks associated with Taiwan, Bresnik recommends that the U.S. government:

• Facilitate De-Risking: Assist companies in finding alternative locations for their supply chains.
• Enhance Coordination: Engage in pre-conflict scenario planning with tech firms to streamline support mechanisms.
• Utilize Government Contracts: Create clear guidelines and incentives for tech companies to contribute effectively during conflicts, reducing ambiguity and ensuring alignment with national security goals.

10. Conclusions and Future Outlook

[39:26] Sam Bresnik:

"Technology companies are not likely to preemptively sever ties with Taiwan in the next couple of years, but we might see shifts in supply chains."

While significant immediate changes are unlikely, the geopolitical landscape may gradually influence how U.S. tech firms manage their operations in Taiwan. Continued efforts to de-risk supply chains and diversify manufacturing bases are expected, albeit over an extended timeframe.

[37:46] Sam Bresnik:

"The story is not going to change much in the next few years… companies are working to de-risk, but full decoupling is unlikely."

Bresnik emphasizes that while there are ongoing efforts to reduce dependency on Taiwan and China, complete disentanglement is not anticipated in the near future. The interdependent nature of global technology supply chains necessitates a balanced approach to managing geopolitical risks without disrupting economic growth.

Final Thoughts

This episode of The Lawfare Podcast provides an in-depth analysis of the complex relationship between U.S. big tech companies and Taiwan. Through Sam Bresnik's expert insights, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of the geopolitical, economic, and security challenges that these tech giants face in navigating their operations amidst rising tensions between China and Taiwan. The discussion underscores the importance of strategic planning, governmental support, and international cooperation in mitigating risks while fostering technological innovation and economic stability.