Summary of "Lawfare Daily: Climate Security During the Trump Administration"

Introduction

In the April 9, 2025 episode of The Lawfare Podcast, host Anna Hickey engages with an expert on climate security to discuss the significant omission of climate change from the United States Intelligence Community’s (IC) 2025 Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) during the Trump administration's second term. This conversation delves into the implications of this exclusion, the broader impact on national security, and the future outlook for climate security in the U.S.

Omission of Climate Change from the Annual Threat Assessment

The centerpiece of the discussion centers on the unprecedented exclusion of climate change from the 2025 ATA. The expert expresses disappointment and concern over this omission, highlighting its departure from over a decade of consistent inclusion.

“I was disappointed to see it not included because I think it sends a signal that the politicization of the climate issue is extending further than it did in the last Trump administration.” ([04:11])

This absence is seen as a reflection of increasing politicization, with climate change being lumped together with other "woke issues," thereby diminishing its perceived importance within national security priorities.

Implications of the Omission

The expert underscores that the ATA is a critical document that outlines the IC’s top priority threats to Congress and guides resource allocation. Excluding climate change:

“Sends a strong message that this isn't a priority and this isn't something the intelligence community should be worrying about or focused on for the coming year.” ([05:27])

This not only deprioritizes climate-related threats but also signals potential self-censorship among analysts who may feel pressured to align reports with the administration's stance.

Previous Inclusion of Climate Security

Historically, climate change has been integral to the ATA due to its multifaceted impact on national security. The expert explains:

“Climate security has to be broader than just the federal government... keeping Americans safe and secure from climate hazards so that they can thrive.” ([02:22])

Past assessments have addressed how climate change exacerbates food and water insecurity, fosters geopolitical instability, and directly threatens military infrastructure and readiness. For instance, climate-induced disasters can disrupt military bases, as seen with hurricanes affecting bases in Florida and Texas.

Government and Defense Department’s Role

The conversation highlights how the Trump administration has systematically de-emphasized climate security across various government agencies. The expert mentions:

“President Trump made it very clear when he came into office that climate would no longer be a priority... Work at the State Department to focus on climate security, from what I understand, is largely gone.” ([11:09])

This de-prioritization extends to the Department of Defense (DoD), where public statements by leaders like Secretary Hegseth indicate a shift away from climate-related initiatives, focusing solely on traditional defense tasks like shipbuilding.

Impact on Military Resilience

The omission of climate security has tangible effects on the military's ability to respond to climate-related threats. The expert provides concrete examples:

“Typhoon Mawar that hit Guam, which decimated US Military facilities there, caused billions of dollars of damage... interrupted the ability of the base to operate.” ([32:25])

Additionally, extreme weather events have impacted troop morale and operational efficiency, as seen with Hurricane Michael’s effects on Tyndall Air Force Base.

International Partnerships and Climate Resilience

The U.S. has historically leveraged its military partnerships to enhance global climate resilience, fostering stronger alliances and ensuring mutual support during climate-induced disasters. The expert laments:

“No country can match the kind of reach of the US military... It's a real missed opportunity and it's a big loss that then has the potential to blow back to the United States.” ([16:33])

Without sustained U.S. leadership, allies may lack the support needed to bolster their own climate resilience, potentially destabilizing regions critical to U.S. national security interests.

Future Watchpoints

Looking ahead, the expert identifies several key areas to monitor:

1. Global Trends Report: An upcoming report by the National Intelligence Council that traditionally includes climate risks will be pivotal.

2. National Defense and Security Strategies: Assessing whether these documents continue to integrate climate considerations.

3. Domestic Disaster Response: Observing how the administration handles climate-induced disasters, especially with discussions around potentially eliminating FEMA.

4. Congressional Actions: Watching for legislative efforts, particularly within the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), to reintegrate climate priorities.

“Physics always wins. We're going to have climate extreme weather events right in the near term... How does this administration react?” ([24:25])

Final Thoughts

The expert emphasizes the necessity of broadening climate security beyond federal initiatives, advocating for subnational engagement and local resilience efforts.

“Climate security has to be broader than just the federal government... keeping Americans safe and secure from climate hazards so that they can thrive.” ([35:30])

They call for continued advocacy and fact-based communication to maintain the prominence of climate security in national discourse, despite the setbacks faced during the Trump administration.

“We're in a really challenging moment right now and we've lost a lot of ground. And so I think we're going to face some really tough questions here in the next few years about how we address this risk.” ([35:30])

Conclusion

This episode of The Lawfare Podcast provides a critical examination of the Trump administration's approach to climate security, highlighting the ramifications of its exclusion from key national security assessments. The conversation underscores the intricate link between climate resilience and national security, advocating for sustained and comprehensive efforts to address climate-related threats.

Notable Quotes

• “Climate security has to be broader than just the federal government in this environment...” – Expert on Climate Security ([02:22])

• “I was disappointed to see it not included because I think it sends a signal that the politicization of the climate issue is extending further than it did in the last Trump administration.” – Expert on Climate Security ([04:11])

• “Physics always wins. We're going to have climate extreme weather events right in the near term...” – Expert on Climate Security ([24:25])

• “We're in a really challenging moment right now and we've lost a lot of ground...” – Expert on Climate Security ([35:30])