← The Lawfare Podcast
Loading summary
Transcript60 lines
- [00:01]
Fabian Hoffman
The Electronic Communications Privacy act turns 40 this year and it's showing its age. On Friday, March 6, Lawfare and Georgetown Law are bringing together leading scholars, practitioners and former government officials for installing updates to ecpa, a half day event on what's broken with the statute and how to fix it. The event is free and open to the public in person and online. Visit lawfaremedia.org ecpaevent that's lawfairmedia.org ecpaevent for details and to register.
- [00:36]
GNC Advertiser
There's one place for the newest drops in wellness and performance and the biggest sale of the year. It's the Drop by gnc, curating the best of what's new, handpicked by the pros who know what works. And right now, get it all. Buy one, get one 50% off during the semi annual LiveWell sale. From crushing workouts to leveling up your nutrition and everything in between, get the best deals on the latest innovations. All the newness is all on sale right now during the LiveWell sale on the drop by GNC.
- [01:06]
Jerry Insurance Advertiser
Are you noticing your car insurance rate creep up? Even without tickets or claims, you're not alone. That's why there's Jerry, your proactive insurance assistant. Jerry handles the legwork by comparing quotes side by side from over 50 top insurers so you can confidently hit buy. No spam calls, no hidden fees. Jerry even tracks rates and alerts you when it's best to shop. Drivers who save with Jerry could save over $1300 a year. Don't settle for higher rates. Download the Jerry app or visit Jerry AI Acast today.
- [01:43]
Fabian Hoffman
Ideally you would want to have some type of optimized, low cost, affordable interceptor system in place to deal with these call them leakers. So those drones that leak through the initial air defense barrier and then to deal with them in an appropriate way. And that's something that neither the United States operates in significant numbers in the region nor the Gulf states.
- [02:09]
Anastasia Lopatyna
It's the Lawfare podcast. I'm Anastasia Lopatyna, Ukraine Fellow at lawfair with Fabian Hoffman, a doctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo, and Pavlo Litovkin, a senior Ukrainian drone instructor who's been teaching foreign armies and civilians how to pilot and intercept drones.
- [02:28]
Pavlo Litovkin
We need to share expertise and world must put attention to us because we passed through a lot of things and all of that rules, all of that approaches. It's built on our blood, on our bones, someone's lives and we must deliver it to the world.
- [02:53]
Anastasia Lopatyna
We recorded two separate conversations speaking about the Iranian Shahed Drones and what the US and its allies can learn from Ukraine as they navigate the war against Iran. Here is my conversation with Fabian. So, Fabian, in your latest newsletter, which is called Missile Matters with Fabian Hoffman, we'll link it below for our listeners. You discuss how the Iranian shahed drone theoretically should be quite easy to defeat, but in reality, they've proven to be quite tricky targets to deal with for the US and its allies. So let's just start with that. Can you just explain the basic characteristics of the shahed drone and why intercepting it can be a challenge?
- [03:33]
Fabian Hoffman
So, in principle, it's a pretty simple airborne vehicle, right? It's rather large, it's not very stealthy, it flies at pretty low velocities, at least compared cruise missiles or especially ballistic missiles. So jokingly, I sometimes say, if you have a radar that's suitable for picking up these things and you point it at a Shahad, it's going to light up the radar monitor like a Christmas tree or New Year's Eve. So there's nothing that will stop you from picking it up on radar if you are in the vicinity and you have, you know, somewhat optimized gear to deal with it. And that's the problem in the Middle east, that these states, they invested billions and billions into missile defense, but they focused on what they perceived to be the primary threat, which was Iranian ballistic missiles. And they do not really have optimized gear, optimized systems to deal with this long range drone threat, which in principle, right again, paradoxically, should be much easier to deal with than the ballistic missiles. But if you don't have the right systems in place, then it becomes a challenge. And the other factor of course is, and this is what we already know from Ukraine and elsewhere, it's just the mass. So if I launch a critical mass of these systems, no matter how well defended your airspace is, there's always a probability that some of these shahed type drones will get through and cause some level of damage. And, and this is exactly what we're seeing playing out in the Middle east right now.
- [05:08]
Anastasia Lopatyna
Since February 28, Iran has targeted almost a dozen countries, most of them in the Middle east with many, many hundreds of its shahed drones. And I understand that we're still working with limited data because of operational security and other factors. But to the best of your understanding, how are these countries coordinating the response and what systems are they actually using to shoot down these drones?
- [05:31]
Fabian Hoffman
Yeah, so basically I think you, you can conceptualize it in terms of two defensive barriers that they, they have, you know, more or less on a ad hoc basis put up to deal with these long range drone threats. The first one is a barrier or an air defense system consisting of manned aircraft. So that is manned aircraft, either helicopters or fighting jets operated by the Gulf states themselves. So also many by the United States which are very active in the region, of course, and then of course also Israel that are flying manned sorties to intercept these incoming drones. So that could be an F15E, that could be an Apache helicopter, that could be an F16. All of these different manned aircraft have been demonstrated to be active in the region right now and active in intercepting incoming long range drones. And they, they intercept by, you know, at least the numbers that we're seeing. And of course we have to be a bit careful with that. But I think by and large the battle damage reports also indicate that most of them are intercepted in this initial stage. So most are intercepted by manned aircraft. They're using a range of ammunition, you know, helicopters, they can use their, their guns. So this can be very cheap, maybe a couple hundred, couple thousand US dollars per intercept. The F15s and the F16s also they have been seen using Sidewinder. So this would be a expensive air to air missile. But also many are apparently using apkws air to air missiles. These are the rather cheap air to air missiles that are also used by Ukraine and have been demonstrated in terms of their effectiveness over there. So you know, can be more or less expensive and most drones are intercepted at that stage. If some slip through, then you get to the stage where the Gulf States and partially the United States, if it has the systems in place on the ground, has to rely on surface to air missiles. So this could be Patriot, this could be the South Korean system that the UAE operates or some other type of system. And as many commentators have pointed out, if you get to that stage, it can be very expensive to intercept the long range drone, especially compared to the price of the drone itself. With a Patriot missile costing potentially up to US$4 million and the drone costing something around 20 to 30k. So in that sense, right, it doesn't make perfect sense to allocate these missiles. But if your alternative is that the drone gets through and hits the target, potentially a radar costing hundreds of millions of US dollars as has apparently happened in that case, right, you still probably would want to allocate your Patriot interceptor. So yes, it's not ideal doing that, but very often the alternative, alternative would probably be bad. So in that sense, the cost effectiveness argument is not always very Straightforward, but ideally you would want to have some type of optimized, low cost, affordable interceptor system in place to deal with these, call them leakers. So those drones that leak through the initial air defense barrier and then to deal with them in an appropriate way. And that's something that neither the United States operates in significant numbers in the region nor the Gulf states, which we have talked about investing in this type of capability prior to the war. But the procurement processes have proved too slow.
- [09:01]
Anastasia Lopatyna
So just to make this point clear, there has been a lot of chatter in the media and on social Media about the U.S. and Gulf states using these hyper expensive Patriot missiles to shoot down these very cheap drones. It is happening, but it's very much the minority of the interceptions. Right, so it's not the go to method or the primary method, is that right?
- [09:22]
Fabian Hoffman
Exactly, it's absolutely not the go to method. It is an option of last resort. I mean they will do everything in their power to avoid that. But sometimes you cannot avoid it. Right. Sometimes you then probably have to choose between okay, letting the drone slip through or accepting that you now have to allocate a fairly expensive interceptor and then probably most of the time they will choose, you know, unless it's clear that the drone is very far off any critical target, or it's clear that it's already damaged or something like that, they will choose to intercept it. And for good reason.
- [09:54]
Anastasia Lopatyna
Also in your writing on this subject, we've talked about area defense and point defense. Can you just describe the difference and what it means for this context in the Gulf?
- [10:04]
Fabian Hoffman
So as the name suggests, area defense is about defending large areas, large swathes of territory from incoming threats. Whereas point defense, that's really about protecting a relatively small footprint of territory or an individual facility even. And in the context of the Gulf states, basically this first air defense barrier, manned aircraft patrolling the area, sometimes traveling dozens or hundreds of kilometers to the target to intercept it. That's really an area defense system. Right. And that's needed because the Gulf region is so big, the territories are so large, and the attack vectors as we call them, from which the Shire type drones can come in, are so many that really you need to have systems in place where you have a large protected area and manned aircraft, they can offer that. And that's much more difficult with surface to air systems. So very often then these surface to air systems also like Patriot, right, is still a fairly significant range depending on the Patriot interceptor that is being used. It's you know, 60 kilometer radius, but it's obviously, you know, no comparison to a fighter aircraft that can fly hundreds of kilometers to intercept the target. So that is really more point defense in nature. Right. So then I'm no longer interested in protecting, you know, an entire country or an entire region. This is really then about protecting very specific critical facilities that need an additional redundant layer of air defense. And you know, this is then also what we are, what we're seeing right now play out in the, in the ongoing conflict is that, okay, you have this first, I would say this first, you know, very critical barrier of area defense. But then not all possible targets in the region are protected also by a point defense system. Right. So I mean, some of the Gulf states, they are fairly small, right. So Bahrain and the UAE probably, they can cover most of their territories with patriots. But for a state like Saudi Arabia, for example, that's really, really difficult. Same as it is for Ukraine, by the way. Right. And this is then another reason why when some of these Shah type drones get through, why they will necessarily cause damage because you not always have a second redundant layer of point defense in place to defend against them. And so basically. Right, this also means then if you want to have an effective defense against these long range drone threats. Yeah, you need both. Right. You need some type of area defense. Right now we're relying broadly on manned aircraft for the task, both in Ukraine and in the Middle East. In the future, I think it might be more elegant to rely on unmanned aircraft together with a fairly cheap air to air interceptor capability, as this will bring down the costs quite significantly and of course also free up, you know, the manned aircraft for other, perhaps for critical tasks, while at the same time you need to have in place, you know, some type of point defense system around your critical targets. Where you say, okay, this is a target I really, really cannot afford to lose, like a hundreds of millions dollar expensive radar, for example. Right. So here it would have been really appropriate to have some type of point defense system in place. And the fact that it wasn't, that's, you know, a critical operational failure on the side of the Americans and the coalition partners.
- [13:37]
Anastasia Lopatyna
Iran has also been, of course, sending ballistic missiles at the Gulf countries, and the United States and Israel have been trying to destroy the launchers that they're using to do that. Is the U.S. also trying to hit shahed launching sites or shahed factories? Is that a tactic that could work?
- [13:55]
Fabian Hoffman
Yeah, they're definitely doing that. So we assume that most of the shaheds are launched from trucks. Those are smaller trucks than the transporter erector launchers. That launch the ballistic missiles. So they're more civilian sized, I would say. But these are also actively being hunted. And there are several videos of, uploaded on social media by Centcom and by the Israeli Air Force that show the destruction of these trucks, sometimes of secondary explosions, very clearly indicating that no something explosive was in there. So, so that is done. We, we assume very strongly and we also know to some extent that the U.S. is bombing, you know, these production facilities. Some are above ground, many are underground. So this is when the B2 and the B1Bs, the intercontinental range bombers, are flown in from the intercontinental United States all the way to the Middle east and back and they drop, you know, large amounts of fairly heavy munitions on these underground facilities to penetrate deep into the mountain ranges and then cause destruction. Of course, an issue here is that given that these sites are located underground, it's not straightforward to do what we call a battle damage assessment. So it's very difficult to tell now is the site actually destroyed or not. Even harder, of course, for US civilian observers of the war without access to classified information, but even I guess for the United States or Israel, this would be very difficult unless they have some type of human intelligence on the ground that can confirm or deny the destruction of the facility.
- [15:35]
Anastasia Lopatyna
So how do you so far assess the response of the US and its allies to these attacks? How are they handling it? Because of course there is all of this reporting about the very problematic mathematics of it all and using very expensive systems to intercept really cheap ones and how that doesn't make sense. But at the same time, the interception rates are quite high, right? The interception rates are up to 90% and higher. So how do you assess what's really going on?
- [16:04]
Fabian Hoffman
So I mean, this is the funny thing, these days, if you're on Twitter or other social media, it's all the tech pros discovering the economics of air defense and then that this can actually be disadvantageous and something that people who follow this have known for decades. But of course they have to reinvent it the same way they have to reinvent everything, just making it worse. So from observational perspective of the public space, that's deeply frustrating. I mean, from a military perspective, I think the United States and Israel, they perform, and this is really from a military perspective. So operationally they perform as expected. And of course also the coalition forces, they perform as expected, if not slightly better. So I think especially the tel hunting mission, right? Like hunting those transporter erectile launchers, that has been pretty successful. Of course, a lot is what we call the fog of war. So we don't have perfect insights on what's going on on the ground. But I think the numbers that demonstrate that there are reduced launches of both ballistic missiles and long range drones, they show a fairly significant decrease in the availability of Iranian launcher capabilities for both ballistic missiles and long range drones. That this was of course the strategy. Right, because the United States, unlike the tech pros, they knew long before that you can't just counter Iranian ballistic missiles with defensive capabilities. That's just not going to happen. So this was the strategy all along. And again, it's playing out as expected and maybe even slightly better. The big challenge, and this is removed from the battlefield where the US and its forces, together with Israel and others are performing very well, if not exceptionally, is translating this military success into a lasting political success. And I'm not a Middle east expert, right? So I'm not even trying to predict how this war will end on a political level or the best and worst case scenarios, what they could be. But I think also for me it's pretty apparent that just striking targets, targeting itself, that's ideally a means towards an end, right? It is what you do in order to achieve the political objective that you're working towards. But you cannot treat the targeting, the process of targeting as an end in itself. And this is of course a bit the risk that I and I think many others are seeing that just because the United States may be bombing more targets and also bombing them more successfully does not necessarily mean this will also be a political success in the end.
- [18:48]
Anastasia Lopatyna
You've mentioned interceptor drones, which is kind of the elephant in the room here because of course these are the technology that Ukraine and some other companies abroad have developed and that Ukraine has been using actively for the past few months. And they really seem to be the most cost effective and the most efficient way to handle shaheds, these interceptor drones. Could you talk a little bit about this technology and sort of how it differs from everything else that the US is currently using?
- [19:15]
Fabian Hoffman
Yeah, sure. So I mean, these interceptor drones that are, these are one very interesting solution that Ukraine came up with and basically it's an evolutionary design, right? So Ukraine has had great success using FPV drones and general for a variety of purposes. And at one point they also used them to intercept airborne vehicles first, you know, ISR type drones and at one point also these larger long range drones like Geran. And from that point it then evolved, you know, moving from a manned interceptor drone system where you have a pilot that's in the loop, that's Manually steering the drone into the incoming long range drone towards an unmanned system where you have an onboard camera, right, an infrared seeker, for example, that then autonomously guides itself or guides the interceptor drone into the incoming long range drone. And for Ukraine, that appears to have been pretty successful. They're now intercepting large numbers of incoming drones on an almost daily basis with these types of pretty cheap interceptor drones that depending on the system, only cost between 1,000 to 5,000 US dollars per shot. So that's of course extremely cheap, right? Even cheaper than the, than the shot type drones themselves. Of course, these systems also have limitations, right? This is also always something, I'm saying, you know, something is affordable for a reason and often greater affordability comes with a lack of capability. And the question is, of course, right, the remaining capability, is it enough? It appears in the Ukrainian context very often this appears to be the case. But you know, some of the issues of these interceptor drones, for example, are that they're pretty slow, right? Sometimes they are as fast as the long range drone itself or slightly faster, but they do not, for example, have the speed of a, of an interceptor missile. And this reduces the, what we call the kinematics of the interceptor. And that means, for example, that if you, if you want to have a high chance of intercepting the long range drone with the interceptor drone, then you have to have pretty good early warning. You have to know that the drone is coming, you have to know from which angle because your ability to maneuver once the drone is in the air to counter the threat, that is pretty limited, right? So again, this does not mean that these interceptor drones are bad. Not at all. Right. They are proven, battle tested systems that Ukraine demonstrates again on almost daily basis that they are very good. But you know, there are no magical silver bullet type solution that will be perfect for all types of scenarios. But they could be very useful right now in the Middle east, right? The same way that other types of affordable point defense systems could really bolster the Gulf State missile defense system.
- [22:07]
Anastasia Lopatyna
Ukraine is actually not the only country making these interceptors though, right? In fact, there is an American company that makes a system called merops which is being widely used in Ukraine. And as far as I understand, it's actually even better than the Ukrainian models, although it's also more expensive, around $15,000 I think. And so my question is how much do we know about which companies and which countries are developing similar technologies and sort of what's the lay of the land of this industry, of this field in the West?
- [22:38]
Fabian Hoffman
Oh, it's super Dynamic. And there are very many companies that are working on this outside Ukraine. So I mean, in Europe, you know, you have many Missile Star, you have Cambridge Aerospace, you have Frankenberg Technologies, you have Titan, you know, just to name a few that are working on some type of affordable interceptor technology. Not all of them are building drone interceptors, but you know, like the idea of making air defense affordable to deal with the mass of long range drone threats, that's obviously very prevalent right now. And many companies are working on this in the United States, in Europe and probably soon also elsewhere. Right. I would be confused if there would not also be startups emerging potentially in Asia at one point. So I mean, by no means are they the only ones where the Ukrainians right now. And then also companies like meraps that are using their products in Ukraine, they have the big advantage that they are the only ones that can put on their product the label battle tested. Right. That, that it's been proven under operational conditions. And of course that all the other companies that all these other companies that I just mentioned, they of course also trying to flood Ukraine. Right. They're not stupid. So they're also trying to get there and to, to battle test their systems. So it's very dynamic, it's very competitive. But yeah, so I mean from a, you know, from a buyer's perspective, this is a pretty decent market probably in the, in the coming years because you will have many companies competing for these contracts, while at the same time, of course for the companies this will also be very lucrative because the Middle Eastern states for sure, they will accelerate this procurement process following this war, maybe even while it's ongoing. And many European states, they also know that they have to invest in this type of capability. So yes, there are many companies, but the size of the market is also pretty large.
- [24:38]
Anastasia Lopatyna
Of course many of these companies are Ukrainian startups. And President Zelenskyy told the New York Times recently that he's been fielding requests from many countries in the Gulf and also the United States to help with air defense. And he said that Ukraine has already sent both its experts and the actual interceptor drones to Jordan to help protect American military bases there. And then Reuters also separately reported on March 7 that the US was sending this MARIP system to the Middle East. As far as I understand, that's the first time the US military will be using that particular system. They didn't have a contract with the Pentagon before, but clearly now they do. So Fabian, should we expect that this shahed type, low cost long range drone will continue playing a Big role in future wars. And what does that mean for sort of for NATO readiness and planning and what systems Pentagon will be procuring in the next many years?
- [25:39]
Fabian Hoffman
Yeah, yeah. I also don't know the details. They are 100%. My understanding is, or was that the United States, you know, they were also working on this. They were having, you know, testing contracts and development contracts were ongoing. So there was clear interest but there was no, you know, set winner yet that received a full on procurement contract. And of course the United States also never operationally used the system. So this might be the first time now that the United States will actually operationally use an interceptor type drone. Pretty fast. But yeah, so this, I mean this long range drone threat, it's probably not going anywhere, at least for the foreseeable future. But I think it's very difficult to predict what's going to happen in the missile space more largely and then also the long range drone space, you know, in the next like after 10, 15 years. But I think at least for the next five to 10 years, I think everyone knows that this is an expanding threat that NATO states have to respond to both in terms of acquiring capabilities that can deal with incoming enemy long range drones cost effectively, while of course also building up these capabilities yourself because you want them to saturate your adversaries air defense system, you want them to strike deep into her territory and you also just want something right to respond offensively because as we said in the beginning, everyone knows, with the exception of some unfortunate European decision makers, it seems that you cannot respond to incoming long range and deep strikes persistently just with defensive tools that doesn't work at one point you have to strike back. Right. So this is another reason why European states most likely, and I mean they are already interested right now, but I think this dynamic will also accelerate that. You know, European states, they will also acquire these types of long range drones in large numbers. And of course then you get action reaction, spirals.
- [27:36]
Bill Advertiser
Right.
- [27:36]
Fabian Hoffman
I mean this is also something we kind of forget. So as Europe ramps up production, you know, Russia will probably continue also try to accelerate to the extent that it can, which might be much more limited for Russia right now given that they're already pretty much over mobilized in their defense industrial space. But yeah. So by and large this is something that will not leave us for the coming years. Quite the opposite. It's going to be more important.
- [28:02]
Anastasia Lopatyna
Fabian, thank you. This was very interesting.
- [28:05]
Fabian Hoffman
Yeah, thanks so much for having me.
- [28:08]
Bill Advertiser
This episode is brought to you by Bill, the intelligent finance platform that helps businesses and accounting firms scale with proven results when you're growing a business, the stakes get higher. You can't afford infrastructure that breaks under pressure. If you care about security, reliability and scale, I want to let you in on a secret. Bill is the foundational software that nearly half a million businesses and 90 of the top 100 U.S. accounting firms firms used to automate back office workflows, add secure controls to payment processes and scale without increased overhead. With AI powered accounts payable automation, Bill erases the busy work from capturing invoices, routing approvals and processing payments, syncing seamlessly with the top accounting software platforms. So your books are always accurate. But Bill isn't just accounts payable. It supports the full payments workflow. Bill has processed over $1 trillion in transactions, leveraging that expertise to help you manage, move and maximize your finances. So stop the guesswork and start scaling with the proven choice. Go to bill.com proven to talk with a payments expert and get a $250 gift card as a thank you. That's bill.com proven terms and conditions apply. See Offer page for details. Hey folks, I don't know about you, but I've been thinking a lot about May 15 lately because that is the day that we could see a major shift in leadership at the Federal Reserve. There's been a lot of talk about politicization of the Fed. There's been some action in that regard, and May 15th is the day every Fed chair has a different tolerance for inflation, a different approach to interest rates, and a different philosophy about economic growth. And so when the leadership changes, markets often reposition in anticipation of what comes next. I'll tell you what doesn't reposition gold. Gold historically performs really well during periods of monetary uncertainty, whether caused by leadership transition at the Fed or other things. It's not because the sky is falling and people are, you know, shoving bars of gold under their mattresses, but it's just because investors reassess risk. And gold is this thing that has maintained its value for a really long time. Smart investors don't wait for the headlines to confirm what's already developing. They start positioning themselves early, especially when there's this clear economic milestone like the one coming on May 15th that's approaching. So if you've been wondering about whether gold should be part of your economic portfolio, this is exactly the kind of moment when it makes sense to speak with somebody who understands the market. And that's exactly why I suggest you turn to Noble Gold Investments. Noble Gold has been helping investors protect their savings with physical gold and silver for nearly a decade. And here is why they're different. They provide this like white glove service from start to finish. They'll walk you through how physical gold, gold and silver work. Whether you're considering a direct purchase or rolling over part of an IRA into precious metals. Everything is transparent. They're not pushy. They're not high pressure. They're educators. They explain exactly what you're buying and why. In fact, when Lawfair started doing Noble Gold ads, the head of the company met with me about it and explained why gold was something he felt strongly about why he was in the business that he was in. They genuinely put customers first and the team makes it simple to gain real investor level knowledge and insight. They've built a reputation on being trustworthy and reliable. You can get the answers you need and stop guessing and decide with confidence. So don't wait six months from now wishing you had positioned earlier. Have the conversation now. Schedule a free Gold strategy session@noblegoldinvestments.com lawfair that's noblegoldinvestments.com lawfair get the information you need to make smart decisions about protecting your Future. Discover the 1% wealth strategy at noblegoldinvestments.com LawFair.
- [33:31]
Jerry Insurance Advertiser
Your production needs flexibility software. Define it with automation, built to adapt and the best of it to boost your ot. Transform the everyday with Siemens. Are you noticing your car insurance rate creep up? Even without tickets or claims? You're not alone. That's why there's Jerry, your proactive insurance assistant. Jerry handles the legwork by comparing quotes side by side from over 50 top insurers so you can confidently hit buy. No spam calls, no hidden fees. Jerry even tracks rates and alerts you when it's best to shop. Drivers who save with Jerry could save over $1,300 a year. Don't settle for higher rates. Download the Jerry app or visit Jerry AI Acast today. When you manage procurement for multiple facilities, every order matters. But when it's for a hospital system, they matter even more. Grainger gets it and knows there's no time for managing multiple suppliers and no room for shipping delays. That's why Grainger offers millions of products in fast, dependable delivery so you can keep your facility stocked, safe and running smoothly. Call 1-800-GRAINGER Click grainger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done.
- [34:52]
Anastasia Lopatyna
And now my conversation with Pavlo Litovkin. So Pasha, I just talked to Fabian about the threat that the Iranian Shahed type drones are posing in the Gulf and in the broader Middle east region right now. But you and I both know that in Ukraine, Russia has been using these Iranian drones for many years. The first time you Ukraine intercepted a shahed drone was in the fall of 2022. So can you just walk me through how Ukraine developed an air defense system that it has now to counter these long range drones from those early months of the war to now?
- [35:29]
Pavlo Litovkin
Yeah, thank you for this question. That looks like a big racing, big competition because usually it's two team and everyone trying to keep the ball on their side in the gates of the enemy. And Shahid drone was the really big threat for us, unexpectable because we've been prepared for the rocket missiles, ballistic missiles and they started to use this tool, this weapon in a, in a really efficient way. We couldn't put them down by expensive type of air defense like Patriot rockets and etc because it's like trying to put down bicycle by flat like comparable prices and it would exhaust our economy. What happened next? We implemented the mobile air defense group with the machine guns. We trained how to put them down, we created simulators, we created really good training for that and we become efficient and in some part of time, some scale we had when air sirens came we, we've been relaxed because usually it meant that they will put them down. After that they decided to create new solutions and they changed tactics and they started to fly higher and dive from the sky on the cities, on the critical infrastructures and etc etc.
- [37:16]
Anastasia Lopatyna
Kind of simulating a ballistic missile in a way, right?
- [37:19]
Pavlo Litovkin
Kind of. And our drones, our machine gunners, air defense, they couldn't hit them and we started to search the solution and I've been a witness how our developers in drone industry started to create interceptor drones which now is popular and still efficient at this part. And we have again this gap where we can be more relaxed against the Shahid drones because now we can intercept. I bet I don't know exact numbers but it's like more than 95% and I saw the efficiency of the groups who gradiated courses that I provide and like they have really good result. And we built an amazing system of correlation between the radar between the groups and mass producing mass training of them allow us to cover the cities and infrastructures. Also wanted to to add that all now we're waiting for the new so we know that they have some modifications for their drones with the reactive like with the jet engines it would lead to the increasing of speed and we trying to predict what would be next how to intercept the next evolution of their tool, of their weapons.
- [39:04]
Anastasia Lopatyna
And how often do the Russians modify shaheds? Like what's the speed of innovation? Every few months or it depends.
- [39:12]
Pavlo Litovkin
I know that they already launched the jet shaheeds but I don't remember their tactical technical characteristics at this moment. I guess they searching for solutions and you know war is pretty dynamical. It's really hard to spectate and the best way to do that is to come to the front line and personally ask the guys who is working with this direction. I didn't have communication I guess for a month and that's kind of a lot.
- [39:48]
Anastasia Lopatyna
Yeah. And in that span of time a lot can happen. I also wanted to ask about the tracking of shaheds and the raiders because I know that when Russia just started using shaheds it was a big problem that the raiders that Ukraine had couldn't really catch them because the shaheds were flying way too low and they're like very small and very slow moving targets. So the raiders could like you know, pick up on a bird and think that it's a shahed and stuff. So Ukraine had to develop a whole acoustic system. Right. We had to develop a new tracking system.
- [40:19]
Pavlo Litovkin
Yeah, this is years of sensors and around Ukraine we have thousands of them and they triangulate so they have a sensor piezo and it a lot of them they situated in different places so they cover whole Ukraine and they triangulate the the enemy drone and inside of the system they have library, sound library and AI which is detect the exact type of the enemy UAV. And that's why we have all of these applications with the threat where I raid sirens coming and warn people about the threat.
- [41:11]
Anastasia Lopatyna
Can you describe the basics of how the interceptor drones work, how the technology works and sort of how that solution is different from every other solution we've had this whole time.
- [41:23]
Pavlo Litovkin
So if you will open YouTube and you will write there like high speed drone it's pretty open sourced and the main secret I guess or it's like not the secret is the system system which we built communication efficient like high efficiency work safety. Because in interceptor drone usually you do have explosive because you need to fly as closer as you can and activate the explosive inside to put it down. The charge must be recommended for sure without any fragments to not to hard the objects below. So that's the big and huge work, strategical work because you need to predict a lot of stuff which can happen. But the base of the drone it's like multicopter and depends on the model. You can understand that nothing specific inside of it. You don't have like maybe constructional aspects, aerodynamical aspects. It depends on the model.
- [42:37]
Anastasia Lopatyna
There are now many Ukrainian companies making these interceptor drones and testing them inside Ukraine. And there's also this American interceptor drone system, Merox, which as far as I understand has been used in Ukraine for many months and has been sort of developed here and battle tested here. And also as far as I know it's the most effective system so far. So it's better than the Ukrainian systems. Could you just talk a bit about what are some of the most common systems we have right now with Ukrainian and, and how it compares to the American one.
- [43:11]
Pavlo Litovkin
I'm not sure that it's better than Ukrainian one because Mirops cost more than 20,000 or 15.
- [43:19]
Anastasia Lopatyna
20,000 around 15.
- [43:20]
Pavlo Litovkin
Yeah, yeah. And if we will take Sting as an example, it cost 2,000.
- [43:26]
Anastasia Lopatyna
That's a Ukrainian one.
- [43:28]
Fabian Hoffman
Yeah.
- [43:28]
Pavlo Litovkin
But they slightly different because Merops, it's more plain that drone, you launch it with this special catapult and Sting, it's like drawn with the vertical lift off. So it's multi copper. It's two principally practically different approaches, but you can have the same result, you can hit the drone. And I heard from the training that now we're trying to implement not only show the practical aspect, how to fly with that because it's require also some skills which is pretty narrow directed. You also must know how to orient, how to work with the radar. And I heard that during the training three different accidents where cadets or trainee, they hit the shaheed without explosive part because during the training it's forbidden to use it. They just got into the engine and hit it. So it's really interesting how it could be now efficiency from the cheaper drones like Ukrainian one, they have the same results.
- [44:51]
Anastasia Lopatyna
You've been kind of dropping hints about the fact that you've been training a lot of people and I do want to talk about that because you've been teaching foreigners both inside and outside of Ukraine how to operate and intercept drones. Just talk a bit about your work and what your experience has been and sort of how foreign armies and civilians are perceiving this whole thing.
- [45:14]
Pavlo Litovkin
Like usually my audience, my trainee, that's people who don't can. Can stand behind the activity here. So usually they. And amazingly conscious to join this battle voluntarily and they have a lot of motivation to be more efficient. Some people without ability to continue to be in the trenches like an infantry member and they want to get something new and Be integrated into the armed forces of Ukraine. They prepare themselves like. Like. Usually people tells that unlike foreigners, they will come steal technologies and run away. But the people with who I work, they fighting and using this technology, this instrument. Because I usually tell that that's one of the instrument. You can use it in this situation, that situation. And you can implement it in your work. And everything depends on your vision and how you will use which instrument you will use to make to accomplish it. So it's really interesting. My way started in 2023 when I voluntarily went started researching training for myself. Because I understood that war won't end in two, three weeks, days and it will continue. And I wanted to be prepared. I checked my military ticket and I understand that I am aviation engineer. I do have a bachelor degree in this sphere. But the aviation being not developed since COVID time. We had a lot of specialists much better than me after university. And I understood that I need to change direction from the big aviation to something smaller. And drones industry they was pretty narrow, pretty close. Society was involved in that. Like cinematographers, hobbyists and etc. And I've been connected to that sphere. And people told me, yeah, we started. We started to use it in the front line. And we want to create FPV school. One of the first or first, I don't know who was. But they invited me to the course. I updated my knowledges in a point how to use it in the military conditions. Because I never been connected to that and never expected I would. And after that I started to be instructor and concentrated on the absorbing information from different direction of the front line. And it's like geometric progression. Each month you graduate 80 people. They went to the front line. After that they bring to you, you always in touch, you're helping them to use to that condition to adopt their work to particular conditions they have. And it's really big like really interesting experience to me. And after that I concentrated only on foreigners. Because we had big demand. They saw how we work and we help to gather like FPV combat groups and help them to be integrated into the armed forces or some squads they have. And I also worked on the direction how to adapt how to build the communication of them with the Ukrainian troops to not to have problems to to work effectively more efficient. Because the communication is the key. Especially in UAV sphere. Because friendly fire could be not only in the infantry with the rifle seat. Also FPV drone can be directed to the wrong direction.
- [49:32]
Anastasia Lopatyna
Well, considering what's happening in the world right now and how Ukraine has been fielding requests from foreigners to help and teach other countries on drone defense. I'm sure you're going to be very busy in the next couple of months and years.
- [49:47]
Pavlo Litovkin
Yeah, I'm already busy.
- [49:50]
Anastasia Lopatyna
Yeah, you're probably going to be more busy. But thank you so much that you found the time for us. Pasha, thank you.
- [49:57]
Pavlo Litovkin
Thank you so much that you opening and explore this topic to people because we knew that it will be high demand and we try to communicate it as well. But you know, people usually put attention to something when it burn and now
- [50:17]
Anastasia Lopatyna
yeah, everything when it hits their home.
- [50:20]
Bill Advertiser
Yeah, yeah.
- [50:21]
Pavlo Litovkin
And we need to extinguish this to cut. Cut the fire because that's the global problem. How to regulate this if you will forbid. So now sky around European countries is closed just like hour ago. I just get known about that. Maybe it will pose the problem. But to be honest, it's the second question how you will detect the pilots. Yeah like these terrorists or etc. Because they can use optic fiber drones, they can use whatever they need and we need to share expertise and world must put attention to us because we passed through a lot of things and all of that rules, all of that approaches. It's built on our blood, on our bones, someone's lives and we must deliver it to the world.
- [51:31]
Anastasia Lopatyna
You're right. Thank you so much.
- [51:34]
Pavlo Litovkin
Thank you.
- [51:38]
Anastasia Lopatyna
The Lovehair Podcast is produced by the Loveher Institute. If you want to support the show and listen ad free, you can become a Lawfare material supporter@lawfairmedia.org support supporters also get access to special events and other bonus content we don't share anywhere else. If you enjoy the podcast, please rate and review us wherever you listen. It really does help. And be sure to check out our new other shows including Rational Scaling Laws, Allies, the Aftermath and Escalation. Our latest Lawfare Presents podcast series about the war in Ukraine. You can also find all of our written work@lawfaremedia.org the podcast is edited by Jan Pacha. Our theme song is from Alibi Music. As always, thanks for listening.
- [52:35]
GNC Advertiser
There's one place for the newest drops in wellness and performance and the biggest sale of the year. It's the drop by gnc. Curating the best of what's new. Handpicked by the pros who know what works. And right now, get it all. Buy one, get one 50% off during the semi annual LiveWell sale. From crushing workouts to leveling up your nutrition and everything in between. Get the best deals on the latest innovations. All the newness is all on sale right now during the Livewell sale on the drop by gnc.