Lawfare Daily: External Powers Competition in Africa: Aid, Security, Tech—and African Agency

The Lawfare Podcast | October 23, 2025
Host: Katyna Schmatyna (Eurasia Fellow, Lawfare Institute)
Guest: Beverly Ochin (Senior Analyst, Control Risks)

Overview

This episode explores the evolving landscape of great power competition in Africa, focusing on external actors—especially the US, China, Russia, Turkey, and the UAE—and their influence through aid, security partnerships, digital infrastructure, and resource access. Key attention is given to how African states and leaders are leveraging, accommodating, or resisting this influence, while highlighting the growing assertion of African agency.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. Shifting US Engagement under Trump’s Second Term

• Decreased US Prioritization: Africa has dropped further on the American foreign policy agenda, exacerbated by Trump's return to office. Previous crises (COVID-19, Ukraine War) also led to a US focus elsewhere.
• Foreign Aid Cuts & Visa Restrictions: Drastic cuts in USAID have severely impacted African education and healthcare. Visa restrictions and reciprocal bans have affected diplomatic engagement.
  • Notable Quote (03:20):
    “Trump 2.0 obviously means that Africa is sliding much further down on the global geopolitical agenda.”
    — Beverly Ochin
• African Response & Agency: Some African countries (e.g., Chad, Mali) retaliate with visa restrictions on Americans; others make concessions to maintain strategic ties.
• Transactionalism Prevails: Diplomatic relations are more overtly transactional, with both US and African parties leveraging aid, security, and access.

2. US Deportations and Migration Cooperation

• Pressure on African Countries: US demands to accept deported migrants—often with criminal records—places strain on fragile African judicial and social systems.
• Administrative & Societal Issues: Variability in response, with some countries resisting (e.g., Nigeria), and complications regarding return and integration.
  • Memorable Detail (07:01):
    South Sudan was forced to accept South American deportees due to sweeping US visa bans.

3. US Interests: From Aid to Trade and Resource Competition

• ‘Trade Not Aid’ Rhetoric: Push for open markets for American businesses, especially in sectors where China is dominant (e.g., mining in DR Congo, Sahel region minerals).
• AGOA & Peace Agreements Tied to Business: US seeks to ensure American investment opportunities, particularly in critical supply chains (like the Lobito Corridor).

4. China’s Strategy: From Infrastructure to Digital Expansion

• Infrastructure Legacy: Belt and Road Initiative has aligned transportation and digital infrastructure regionally.
• Digital Influence:
  • Chinese mobile tech enables widespread internet access, especially in rural areas.
  • Chinese companies have driven the analogue-to-digital TV transition.
  • Notable Quote (13:45):
    “The digital transition has always been there... because of Chinese mobile phones which have largely flooded the market. It’s not necessarily a security risk... but it has enabled there to be much wider digital penetration.”
    — Beverly Ochin
• Debt & Loans: African leaders generally welcome Chinese investment, sometimes even restructuring loans to further integrate (e.g., Kenya’s shift from dollar to yuan loans).
• Policy and Accountability: Screening of Chinese investments remains limited; the focus is on benefits and physical infrastructure rather than long-term debt sustainability or public consultation.
  • Memorable Anecdote (17:44):
    “There’s also the joke about African leaders... not necessarily having notebooks to just note down what is being said to make sure that they can ask questions later on.”

5. Russia’s Evolving Footprint: Security, Sentiment, and Propaganda

• Historic Ties and Security Deals: Russia leverages historical relationships from the Soviet era, especially via arms sales, military agreements, and support to governments facing instability.
• Paramilitaries’ Role (e.g., Wagner Group): Paramilitary presence in select countries (CAR, Mali, etc.), often in exchange for resource concessions, combined with disinformation campaigns.
  • Notable Quote (21:16):
    “Russian paramilitaries are currently only in about five African countries out of more than 50... but their activities make it seem as if the entire continent is flourishing with paramilitaries.”
    — Beverly Ochin
• Social Media Monitoring: Beverly Ochin tracks Russian mercenary activities via open-source social media and Telegram channels, noting a transition from propaganda to graphic, sometimes traumatic, documentation.
  • Interesting Detail (31:08):
    “In many instances, they’re just documenting themselves... it gives you a sense of where they are, how they want to be perceived.”

6. Emergence of Turkey, UAE, and Other Powers

• Turkey: Defensive partner, military aid (e.g., drones in Ethiopia), peacemaker roles (Somalia), investments in education and infrastructure.
• UAE: Economic and military support (notably in Sudan and Chad), major port investments (e.g., DP World in Tanzania, Senegal), involvement in agriculture and mining.
  • Notable Quote (36:03):
    “It’s quite robust. It’s both being able to leverage on various concessions, whether it’s mineral, economic, strategic concessions as a way of gaining partnerships.”
    — Beverly Ochin

7. African Leaders’ Agency and Regional Alliances

• Institutional Blocs:
  • African Union—limited political clout, unified policy (e.g., on Palestine).
  • ECOWAS—past power undermined by coups and foreign interference, now challenged by breakaway states (supported by Russia).
  • EAC—recent expansion reflects growing regional integration.
• Dependence on External Funding: Up to 50% of key regional institution budgets still come from US, EU, and China, occasionally constraining full sovereignty.
• Mediation and Soft Power: Senegal and Togo are notable mediators; Africa’s internal diplomacy can sometimes moderate geopolitical competition.
  • Quote (40:49):
    “As long as a lot of African institutions continue to be heavily dependent... it means a lot of policy decisions remain under some form of influence, even if it’s not overt.”

8. Public Perceptions and Narratives

• Impact of Colonial Legacies:
  • Views on Russia’s ‘anti-colonial’ rhetoric are mixed, often oversimplified, and used to fuel resentment rather than deep debate.
  • Quote (47:57):
    “The rhetoric and the narratives are not sophisticated and they haven’t changed. It's the kind that just drives an easy sense of anger.”
• Chinese Projects Appreciated for Tangible Benefits: Chinese-built infrastructure often acknowledged but not fetishized.
• Local Agency in Narrative Shaping: Locally generated movements, sometimes amplified by external information campaigns (including AI-generated videos), shape perceptions—especially among youth.

9. Major Trends to Watch

• Narrative Formation: Increased digital access is shifting whose stories are told and how, with foreign and local actors vying for influence.
• Youth Mobilization: Younger Africans are becoming central to political change, influenced by new media landscapes, protest movements, and economic pressures.
• Unpredictability in External Partnerships: With US reliability under question and China’s careful but expanding involvement, new alliances and methods of engagement are emerging.
  • Quote (53:44):
    “One [trend] definitely [to watch is] how narratives are forming and cementing themselves... There are a lot of narratives that are coming out from the region which are not necessarily a true reflection of what’s happening everywhere.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Transactionalism... is a lot more pronounced given what everyone is trying to offer as leverage.” (03:20)
• “Many of the deportees that Trump is proposing to send... are people who are allegedly with very disturbing... criminal records going into countries that already have fairly fragile judicial systems.” (07:01)
• “China has... enabled most African countries to have access to information, communication and gadgets... allowing them to have dynamic connectivity.” (13:45)
• “Russian paramilitaries are currently only in about five African countries out of more than 50... But their activities make it seem as if the entire continent is flourishing with paramilitaries.” (21:16)
• “There is a way [the African Union] presents a unified policy agenda... but... the general consensus is that [its] political clout... is almost non-existent.” (40:49)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:33 – 06:40: US foreign policy under Trump; visa and aid changes; African countries’ reactions
• 07:01 – 09:28: Migration and deportees; local societal impact of US policy
• 10:07 – 13:08: US economic and trade interests; competition for minerals
• 13:45 – 20:49: China’s digital and infrastructure footprint; African responses to Chinese investment
• 21:16 – 26:59: Russia’s strategy; paramilitaries and information operations
• 31:08 – 35:44: Tracking Russian mercenary activities through open-source channels
• 36:03 – 40:15: Turkey, UAE, and other emerging actors; port investments and military engagement
• 40:49 – 47:10: African agency, alliances, and mediation; dependence on external funding
• 47:57 – 53:44: Public opinion, narratives around colonialism, propaganda
• 53:44 – 56:15: Trends to watch: narrative shifts, youth, unpredictability in partnerships

Conclusion

The episode offers a nuanced picture of Africa’s role in global geopolitics—not as a passive arena for great power rivalry, but as a stage where African leaders and institutions increasingly assert their interests and agency, even as external actors continue to vie for influence through shifting strategies in aid, security, tech, and resource competition.