The Lawfare Podcast: Detailed Summary of "Lawfare Daily: How China Might Coerce Taiwan"

Release Date: May 15, 2025
Host: The Lawfare Institute
Guests: Daniel Byman (Foreign Policy Editor, Lawfare), Evan Braden Montgomery, Toshi Yoshihara (Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments)

Introduction

In the episode titled "Lawfare Daily: How China Might Coerce Taiwan," host Toshi Yoshihara engages with experts Daniel Byman and Evan Braden Montgomery to explore the multifaceted strategies China could employ to exert pressure on Taiwan without resorting to full-scale invasion. The discussion delves into alternative coercive measures, their potential combinations, and the implications for regional and global security.

China's Shift from Invasion to Alternative Coercion Methods

Daniel Byman begins by outlining the covert penetration of Taiwan by Chinese Communist Party (CCP) agents and operatives who could manipulate Taiwanese leadership through bribery, intimidation, or even assassination (02:06). This sets the stage for understanding the depth of China's non-military influence.

Evan Braden Montgomery expands on the idea that traditional coercive methods are not new, but their combined use against multiple targets—Taipei, Tokyo, and Washington D.C.—could amplify their effectiveness significantly (02:46). He argues that China's growing capabilities in subversion, blockades, and nuclear signaling offer more nuanced and potentially less costly alternatives to outright invasion.

Toshi Yoshihara poses a critical question: "Why, if China wants to regain Taiwan, might it consider alternatives to invasion?" (03:32), prompting a thorough analysis of the strategic calculus behind avoiding direct military confrontation.

Detailed Coercive Strategies

1. Blockade

Evan Braden Montgomery discusses the practicality of a Chinese blockade as a means to isolate Taiwan economically and militarily. He notes China's expanded naval and air capabilities, which make a blockade more feasible and less overt than an amphibious assault (08:16). The blockade could be executed with minimal warning, catching regional actors off guard and gradually exerting pressure on Taiwan through shortages of essential supplies.

Daniel Byman adds that such a blockade could involve coast guard vessels and maritime militias enforcing a regulatory regime to reroute or block shipments to Taiwan. This method creates ambiguity, making it challenging for the U.S. and its allies to respond decisively without escalating the situation (10:38).

2. Campaign of Subversion

Daniel Byman elaborates on subversion tactics, including the use of fifth columnists to create internal divisions within Taiwan. These operatives could undermine political unity and military coordination, fostering an environment of chaos and distrust (12:17). This "reverse Zelensky effect" aims to erode confidence in Taiwan's ability to resist, thereby weakening international support.

Evan Braden Montgomery highlights the difficulties in countering such insidious threats, emphasizing that internal divisions make it politically and strategically challenging for the U.S. and Japan to commit to Taiwan's defense (14:29).

3. Nuclear Signaling

Evan Braden Montgomery introduces the alarming prospect of China's nuclear modernization, which includes developing precise, theater-level nuclear weapons (16:51). This shift enhances China's ability to make credible nuclear threats against the U.S., its allies, and regional partners like Japan, thereby escalating the potential coercive pressure.

Daniel Byman describes how China might use nuclear signaling during a crisis by increasing the readiness of its nuclear forces or making public statements about "red lines," thereby raising the stakes and intimidating other nations into compliance (20:09).

The Synergistic Effect of Combined Coercive Tools

Evan Braden Montgomery argues that the true threat lies not in the individual coercive methods but in their combined application. For instance, a blockade could exacerbate Taiwan's sense of isolation, making the population and leadership more susceptible to subversive influences. Simultaneously, nuclear signaling could deter external intervention by threatening devastating retaliation against key allies, thereby creating a compounded pressure environment (24:08).

Daniel Byman reinforces this point by illustrating how doubts about U.S. reliability and support, fueled by China's multi-pronged strategy, can deepen Taiwan's vulnerability. He cites the "America skepticism theory" prevalent in Taiwan, which suggests that U.S. commitment to Taiwan is conditional and may be swayed by China's influence (26:27).

The Role of Japan in U.S. Forward Operations

Toshi Yoshihara probes deeper into why Japan is a focal point in China's coercive strategy, as highlighted by the experts. Daniel Byman explains that Japan is crucial for U.S. forward military operations due to its extensive network of bases. Disrupting Japan's willingness to support U.S. actions would severely limit the United States' operational flexibility and response capability in the region (27:54).

Recommendations for Taiwan and the United States

For Taiwan

Evan Braden Montgomery suggests that Taiwan should continue strengthening its defensive capabilities, including anti-ship missiles, air defenses, and civil defense infrastructure. These measures not only bolster Taiwan's resilience against potential invasions but also demonstrate to the international community and its adversaries that Taiwan is prepared to resist coercion (29:49).

Daniel Byman emphasizes the importance of countering subversive activities by rooting out CCP operatives and enhancing internal security measures. By addressing these threats, Taiwan can mitigate the effectiveness of China's covert campaigns to sow discord and weaken its defense posture (32:54).

For the United States

Evan Braden Montgomery challenges the conventional view that preparing for invasion inherently covers other forms of coercion. He points out that blockade scenarios and nuclear coercion require different strategic approaches and resources. The U.S. must revisit its extended deterrence strategies, potentially incorporating nuclear sharing arrangements and enhancing its naval capabilities to counter blockades (33:33).

Daniel Byman adds that the U.S. needs to develop specific policy tools and institutional frameworks to address non-military coercive tactics. This includes strengthening alliances, especially with Japan, and investing in capabilities that can respond to blockades and subversive activities effectively (37:22).

Conclusion

The episode underscores the complexity of the Taiwan Strait issue, illustrating that China's strategies to coerce Taiwan extend beyond traditional military invasion. By leveraging a combination of blockades, subversion, and nuclear signaling, China aims to isolate Taiwan, undermine its leadership, and deter international intervention. The experts advocate for a multifaceted defensive approach by Taiwan and a reassessment of U.S. strategic policies to effectively counter these emerging threats.

Notable Quotes:

• Evan Braden Montgomery (02:46): "If you think about how they might be employed in combination... that creates an opportunity for those different coercive efforts to kind of work in tandem in potentially a very powerful way."

• Daniel Byman (03:43): "There are a lot of common sense reasons why invasion may not be the optimal route for China if it does indeed want to forcibly reunify with Taiwan."

• Evan Braden Montgomery (08:16): "The blockade has the virtue of being something that can be implemented with perhaps a little less in the way of indications and warning."

• Daniel Byman (10:38): "One of the largest effects that a quarantine operation could produce is to place the onus on the United States and its allies to escalate and to intervene."

• Daniel Byman (12:17): "Many of these operatives could bribe, intimidate, blackmail or discredit Taiwanese political leaders or military commanders... even kill and assassinate them if necessary."

• Evan Braden Montgomery (16:51): "China is developing what could be viewed as an asymmetric advantage in non-strategic nuclear capabilities with its missile forces in particular."

• Daniel Byman (20:09): "There is evidence of growing interest...[in] looking at the Soviet attempts at decoupling during the Cold War to inform Chinese nuclear strategy in the present and the future."

• Evan Braden Montgomery (33:33): "A lot of the debates that you saw in the context of Russia...we're kind of due to have, you know, revisit some of those debates in the Asia Pacific context."

This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the podcast episode, highlighting key discussions on China's alternative coercive strategies against Taiwan and the strategic responses required from both Taiwan and the United States.