The Lawfare Podcast: Political Change in Madagascar and Kenya

Host: Daniel Byman (Foreign Policy Editor, Lawfare)
Guest: Holly Berkeley Fletcher (Former Senior CIA Africa Analyst)
Date: October 22, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode examines two pivotal moments in East Africa: the recent military coup in Madagascar and the death of Raila Odinga, a central figure in Kenyan politics. Daniel Byman and Holly Berkeley Fletcher discuss the roots and ramifications of political instability in Madagascar, the patterns of elite politics and their disruption by youth protest movements, and how Kenya faces a critical transition following Odinga’s passing. The conversation explores the legacy of entrenched elites, the potential for democratic renewal, and the influence of both regional and global powers.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Madagascar Coup: Causes and Dynamics

• Recent Events

  • On October 14, Madagascar’s military took power after weeks of youth-led, internet-organized protests over dire economic conditions, particularly massive power and water cuts.

    “The last coup took place over months... This has happened in weeks. It started September 25th with the beginning of youth-led, online-organized protests... protesting the economic situation, very high unemployment, very high poverty. And then most immediately, water and power cuts.”
    — Holly Berkeley Fletcher [02:28]

• Cycle of Coups

  • This is Madagascar’s fourth coup since independence.
  • The ousted president, Andry Rajoelina (“Ratswelna”), first came to power via a coup in 2009; his tenure was marked by unmet promises, rising authoritarianism, and declining legitimacy.

• Military and Institutional Weakness

  • Weak institutions leave the military as the most stable and competent power center, echoing patterns seen elsewhere in Africa:

    “They've never had strong institutions, they've never had a stable constitutional order… What usually happens in these cases... is that the military becomes the strongest institution.”
    — Holly Berkeley Fletcher [05:19]

• Public Sentiment and Power Transition

  • Unlike some coups, this one was broadly welcomed by the dissatisfied populace, but the military’s intended 2-year transition defies constitutional demands for quick elections (60 days).

    “So it's obvious this is not at all constitutional or democratic by any means, even though the protesters have welcomed this intervention.”
    — Holly Berkeley Fletcher [01:01]

• International Leverage

  • Historically, the African Union (AU), Southern African Development Community (SADC), the US, and France played roles in pressuring for a democratic transition, but global influence has waned while countries like China and the UAE play bigger economic roles.

    “France’s influence is greatly diminished… The AU is probably going to [suspend Madagascar] as well according to their rules. But I think the international situation is quite different this time… and these regional bodies don’t have the leverage and the clout that they once did.”
    — Holly Berkeley Fletcher [13:17]

2. Projections for Madagascar

• Optimistic Scenario:
  • Transition to credible elections and civilian rule, ideally with a new political force emerging from the youth movement.
• Pessimistic Scenario:
  • Entrenchment of military or political elites, further authoritarianism, and failure to address public disenchantment.

    “Unfortunately, the risk is that the elite will further entrench and go in an authoritarian direction in order to preserve their power against this new generational challenge.”
    — Holly Berkeley Fletcher [21:36]

3. Kenya: The Passing of Raila Odinga

• Legacy of Raila Odinga

  • Personal reflections on Odinga’s role as a resilient opposition leader, reformer, and constitutional architect who managed to make opposition politics central to Kenyan democracy across decades.

    “He was detained for several years and tortured... one of the key opposition leaders that put together what would be opposition politics for the next several decades in Kenya at a lot of cost to himself and his followers.”
    — Holly Berkeley Fletcher [24:06]

  • Key role in pushing for the 2010 constitution (more devolved, checked executive power, independent judiciary).

    “He was the one that really got the new constitution ultimately passed and promulgated in 2010. And that has been an important document for Kenya.”
    — Holly Berkeley Fletcher [24:06]

• Imperfections and Realpolitik

  • Noted for at times playing into ethnic politics and self-enrichment, and, in later years, being out of touch with the youth movement.

    “His political game of playing elite power politics to get reform concessions transitioned into what appeared to be... more of a just self preservation tactic.”
    — Holly Berkeley Fletcher [28:00]

• Generational Shift and Future Prospects

  • Odinga’s passing opens the political space for new leaders, ideally those attuned to cross-ethnic generational alliances driven by economic justice.

    “Now that he's gone, it's also an empty stage for someone else to come up on… If that person can be a new kind of politician… there's a tremendous opportunity.”
    — Holly Berkeley Fletcher [29:36]

  • Current president Ruto is highly unpopular and may face a tough, possibly historic election in 2027.

4. Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On Military's Role in Politically Weak States:

  “In certain cases, you could legitimately say the military is the most competent institution in a government.”
  — Holly Berkeley Fletcher [05:19]

• On Generational Politics:

  “The normal personalist politics that… that's very ethnically driven, are not holding water with the next generation. And they're seeing more of an alliance on generational terms across different ethnicities. On the issue of economic opportunity in particular.”
  — Holly Berkeley Fletcher [21:36]

• On Raila Odinga's Place in History:

  “Your colleague at Georgetown, Kennel Paulo, divided Kenyan history into three eras. The Kenyatta era, the Moi era and the Odinga era. And I think that's probably about right.”
  — Holly Berkeley Fletcher [27:57]

• On Dangers and Hopes for Kenyan Democracy:

  “If it's a free and fair election, he definitely could lose. He's definitely vulnerable. And while Kenya's had transitions of power, they've never had an incumbent leave office after losing.”
  — Holly Berkeley Fletcher [31:24]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:28] Madagascar’s coup: roots and timeline
• [05:19] Why Madagascar is prone to coups; role of the military
• [09:35] Popular support and possible paths for military regimes
• [13:17] International actors’ leverage and changing influences
• [21:16] Forward-looking scenarios for Madagascar
• [23:42] Switch to Kenya and Raila Odinga’s legacy
• [24:06] Odinga’s history, reform achievements, and flaws
• [29:36] Potential for new generation(s) of leadership and threats of authoritarian retrenchment
• [31:24] Hopes and dangers facing Kenya’s next transition

Episode Tone

The discussion is thoughtful and analytical, balancing deep expertise with a clear-eyed view of both risks and opportunities facing Madagascar and Kenya. Holly Berkeley Fletcher speaks with an insider's understanding informed by personal as well as professional experience.

This summary encapsulates the core analysis, insights, and memorable turns of phrase from the Lawfare Podcast episode "Political Change in Madagascar and Kenya," providing a solid primer for anyone wanting to understand the stakes and subtleties of recent political shifts in both countries.