The Lawfare Podcast: Lawfare Daily – The Golden Dome Missile Defense Program

Release Date: April 11, 2025

Hosts and Guests:

• Daniel Biman – Foreign Policy Editor, Lawfare Institute
• Tom Carricko – Director of the Missile Defense Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

1. Introduction to the Golden Dome Missile Defense Program

In this episode of Lawfare Daily, host Daniel Biman engages with Tom Carricko to delve into the intricacies of the United States' Golden Dome missile defense initiative. The discussion centers on understanding the program's objectives, its necessity in the current global security landscape, and the implications it holds for national defense.

2. Understanding Golden Dome: Purpose and Scope

At [02:21], Biman prompts Carricko to elucidate the Golden Dome program, initially introduced by President Trump's executive order titled An Iron Dome for America on January 27. Carricko explains:

"This is driven by a particular problem set, a particular threat set, and that is the very considerable proliferation and expansion of missile threat capabilities globally." ([03:02])

Golden Dome aims to address the escalating missile threats which have transformed from niche concerns to primary weapons choices for adversaries. The program emphasizes safeguarding the U.S. homeland, contrasting with traditional missile defenses focused on force protection abroad. Carricko highlights the diversity of threats—including UAVs, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and hypersonic gliders—that necessitate a multi-layered defense strategy similar to Israel's Iron Dome but tailored to American needs.

3. Financial Implications and Cost Assessments

When discussing the financial aspects at [06:34], Carricko emphasizes the complexity in estimating Golden Dome's costs due to the undefined architecture and scale:

"Every weapon system in DoD is limited, every one of them. And missile defense will be a limited, scarce asset as well. It's not going to be unlimited." ([06:51])

He suggests a potential annual increase of $10 billion, noting that even conservative investments could rapidly deplete funds given the robust nature of missile threats. Additionally, Carricko points out the necessity for investment in space sensors and space-based interceptors to enhance tracking and interception capabilities, referencing a recent Request for Information (RFI) for industry participation by the end of April.

4. The Evolving Missile Threat: Focus on China

Biman probes into China's missile capabilities at [10:38], recognizing the distinct challenges China poses compared to other adversaries. Carricko responds by outlining China's advanced missile systems and potential strategies in a conflict scenario:

"China on a bad day will be sending to Guam or to, to various other places, military bases, Okinawa ports and airfields and conus, they're going to be sending an order of magnitude more than that." ([11:18])

He underscores the importance of prioritizing the protection of military forces and critical infrastructure, acknowledging that while missile defense alone cannot secure all assets indefinitely, it serves as a deterrent and buys valuable time for other defense mechanisms to respond.

5. Technical Challenges and Capabilities

Addressing technical aspects, Carricko elaborates on the precision and reliability of current missile defense systems:

"We have demonstrated positively and definitively that you can hit a bullet with a bullet." ([06:51])

He cites successful implementations of systems like THAAD, Patriot, and Aegis against Iranian and Russian missiles in recent conflicts, emphasizing ongoing advancements and the integration of new technologies to handle evolving threats.

6. Strategic Stability and Deterrence

Biman raises concerns reminiscent of Cold War-era strategic defenses possibly provoking adversaries. Carricko counters by highlighting the shifted perspectives due to recent conflict experiences:

"The Ukraine conflict has emphatically altered the perceptions of, of missile defense. And it's done so in a couple ways." ([21:08])

He argues that modern missile defense contributes to stability rather than destabilization by providing "speed bumps in the sky" that complicate an adversary's offensive strategies, thereby enhancing deterrence.

7. Legal Considerations and International Agreements

At [27:40], the conversation shifts to the legal frameworks surrounding missile defense. Carricko clarifies that current international treaties, such as the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, do not prohibit non-nuclear space-based interceptors:

"What it precludes is putting nuclear weapons in space." ([27:55])

He discusses the dissolution of the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty post-2002 and the impending expiration of the New START Treaty in February of the following year, suggesting that future developments in missile defense will proceed with fewer international legal constraints.

8. Outlook for Success and Potential Challenges

Looking ahead to 2035, Biman asks Carricko to envision both successful and unsuccessful outcomes for the Golden Dome program. Carricko outlines key factors for success, including:

• Timely Funding: Emphasizing the urgency of securing substantial and prompt financial resources.
• Clear Acquisition Authority: Ensuring coherent leadership and budget management to integrate diverse systems effectively.
• Focused Defense Objectives: Prioritizing the protection of critical infrastructure and military assets aligned with national defense strategies.

Conversely, failure could stem from:

• Delays in Funding and Implementation: Missing critical windows for development and deployment.
• Strategic Misalignment: Failing to align missile defense efforts with overarching national security priorities against major powers like Russia and China.

Carricko stresses the importance of adaptability and strategic foresight in navigating technological and geopolitical challenges to ensure the Golden Dome program fulfills its protective role.

"It is going to be absolutely critical that we reorient our focus to the bigs, to Russia and China." ([30:47])

9. Conclusion

The episode concludes with Carricko reaffirming the strategic necessity of the Golden Dome missile defense program in the current global security environment. He advocates for a nuanced approach that integrates missile defense with broader military and diplomatic strategies to effectively deter and respond to adversarial threats.

Notable Quotes:

• "Air and missile defense is not going to win a conflict for you by itself, but its absence will lose one for you pretty quick in this environment." – Tom Carricko ([02:03])

• "We have demonstrated positively and definitively that you can hit a bullet with a bullet." – Tom Carricko ([06:51])

• "The Ukraine conflict has emphatically altered the perceptions of missile defense. And it's done so in a couple ways." – Tom Carricko ([21:08])

• "It is going to be absolutely critical that we reorient our focus to the bigs, to Russia and China." – Tom Carricko ([30:47])

Final Thoughts:

This episode of The Lawfare Podcast provides an in-depth analysis of the Golden Dome missile defense program, outlining its strategic importance, financial demands, and the complex threat environment shaped by advancements in missile technology by major global powers. Through expert insights from Tom Carricko, listeners gain a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and imperatives in modern missile defense strategies.