The Lawfare Podcast: "The Gulf Widens"

Date: March 24, 2026
Host: Ariant Bhattabai
Guest: Elisa Catalano (Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations & Adjunct Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security)

Overview

This episode examines the strategic and geopolitical fallout of the current U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and its profound consequences for the broader Gulf region, global economics, alliance politics, and military posture. The host, Ariant Bhattabai, is joined by Elisa Catalano, an expert on Gulf security and former senior government official, to assess Iran’s asymmetric strategies, the U.S. administration’s approach, the role of regional and global allies, and the escalating costs and risks associated with the prolonged conflict.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Iran’s Asymmetric Warfare and Tactics

• Predictability of Iranian Tactics: Elisa notes Iran’s moves were predicted, especially threats to close or disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, and activating regional proxies.

  “We always knew that they would put at risk the Strait of Hormuz. They've been telegraphing it for decades. ... They showed some willingness to do it four, five, six, seven years ago, and they've been building the capabilities to do it better and smarter.” — Elisa, 04:50

• Dispersed & Resilient Capabilities: Despite overwhelming U.S./Israeli military strikes, Iran’s dispersed, cheap, and small-scale capabilities are difficult to eliminate, allowing persistent disruption.

  “Iran is a very, very big place. ... These capabilities that are relatively cheap, relatively small, and hit in ways that are hard for the U.S. to get at, I think persist.” — Elisa, 06:03

• Strategic Success Over Military Success?:

  “Military success is one measure, and I think the administration has focused predominantly on that at the expense of strategic success. ... There have been military successes. It’s an overwhelming military success, and yet here we are.” — Elisa, 02:51 & 10:06

2. U.S. Administration’s Response and Strategic Blind Spots

• Failure to Incorporate Red Team Analysis:

  “There isn’t a single scenario or Red Team or planning exercise ... that didn’t talk through the types of escalation measures Iran could take in this context.” — Elisa, 08:38

• Factors Influencing the U.S. “Off-Ramp”:

  “At some point [economic costs and public opinion]...will probably be a factor. But none of those by themselves seem to be motivating the president, but ...he could wake up any day and decide it's done.” — Elisa, 11:31

3. Economic & Environmental Costs

• Oil Prices and Policy Dilemmas:

  “Oil prices peaking at $119 yesterday...The administration has now been talking about potentially unsanctioning Iranian oil...the assurance campaign, sanctions lifting, commitments to escort vessels…have not contributed to prices coming down.” — Elisa, 11:31 & 15:06

• Beyond Oil: Global Supply Chain and Risk of Environmental Catastrophe:

  “There are all kinds of things that are trapped because of the blocking of the strait...helium, aluminum, fertilizer precursors... The potential for environmental catastrophe here is not zero.” — Elisa, 15:06

4. Cost of War and Impact on U.S. Military Readiness

• Soaring Costs and Resource Drain:

  “Early on we talked about a billion dollars a day ... potential supplemental emergency request for budget at 50 billion and now ... about 200 billion.” — Elisa, 19:40

• Risks to Other Theaters (Ukraine, Indo-Pacific):

  “Every interceptor that is used ...is one less in the arsenal for the next contingency...You’re drawing resources out of that theater...adversaries are learning from every day that we are prosecuting this war.” — Elisa, 20:39

5. Divergence Among Allies and Regional Actors

A. Israel

• Israel’s Objectives Contrast with U.S. and Gulf Partners:

  “Israel is seeking a level of crisis chaos inside Iranian systems...sowing chaos, making sure that the regime’s ability to make decisions is hampered ... Israel feels less risk from an Iran in crisis than the U.S. or Gulf partners do.” — Elisa, 23:30

B. The Gulf States

• Gulf States Not a Monolith:

  “The Gulf is not monolithic... Iran’s aggression has kind of unified positions to some extent amongst the GCC in a way that has never happened before.” — Elisa, 27:34

• Abraham Accords and Unresolved Core Issues:

  “...the Gaza war...put these Arab leaderships in difficult positions. ... This is an existential issue for the Arab and Muslim world — how to resolve the Palestinian question...” — Elisa, 27:34

C. Europe and NATO Allies

• European Discomfort & Parallel Structures:

  “Even then...because of the discomfort between Europeans and the Trump administration over the withdrawal from the JCPOA, there was a parallel structure created.” — Elisa, 35:26

• European Focus: Economy and Asymmetric Threats:

  “European capitals have been acutely aware of the...asymmetric threat, specifically terrorism and IRGC cells, for quite some time.” — Elisa, 39:17

D. Asian Allies (Japan, South Korea, Australia)

• Economic Exposure and Strategic Concerns:

  “The first consequences economically of this war were felt in Japan, in South Korea... removing air defenses from South Korea, removing US troops... all indications of less focus on the threats in their neighborhood.” — Elisa, 42:59

E. China

• China’s Strategic Calculation and Indirect Involvement:

  “China has still gotten quite a bit of its tankers through safely, even as Iran has threatened... China kind of implicated in why the regime was able to rebuild as quickly...” — Elisa, 46:42

6. U.S. Domestic Politics and Congressional Role

• Congressional (In)Action and War Powers:

  “There are more war powers resolutions already in the process... But the real rubber hits the road when this emergency supplemental request moves forward...” — Elisa, 50:46

• Midterms Loom Large:

  “Midterms was always going to be about affordability...what should the government be spending its resources on...So both of those things coming to a head in a conversation that’s really not about foreign policy...” — Elisa, 55:53

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On the Gap Between Military & Strategic Success (02:51, 10:06)

“Military success is one measure, and I think the administration has focused predominantly on that at the expense of strategic success. ... Yet here we are.” — Elisa Catalano

On Iran’s Asymmetric Edge (06:03)

“These capabilities that are relatively cheap, relatively small, and hit it in ways that are hard for the US to get at, I think persist.” — Elisa Catalano

On Economic Costs and Sanctions (15:06)

“Commitments to underwrite insurance, commitments to escort vessels through the strait, all of these things have ... not contributed to prices coming down. In fact, quite the opposite.” — Elisa Catalano

On Impact Across Theaters (20:39)

“Every interceptor that is used, every precision strike capability ... is one less in the arsenal for the next contingency.” — Elisa Catalano

On Israel’s Approach (23:30)

“Israel is seeking to ensure as much crisis chaos inside Iranian systems as possible...” — Elisa Catalano

On U.S.-European Tensions (35:26)

“There was a parallel structure created ... a much lower scale what’s happening today. This idea that the Europeans want to be a part of something that is not all about escalation.” — Elisa Catalano

On the Environmental Risks (15:06)

“The potential for environmental catastrophe here is not zero... Not only if you hit an oil tanker, but … these are crews that are not able to get off and they can’t actually get out of the waterway.” — Elisa Catalano

On Asian Allies’ Exposure (42:59)

“The first consequences economically of this war were felt in Japan, in South Korea, in European cities who are heavily reliant specifically on gas exports.” — Elisa Catalano

On the Looming U.S. Midterms (55:53)

“The midterms was always going to be about affordability...it’s not about foreign policy as much as it is about what the United States citizen expects the United States government to be focused on.” — Elisa Catalano

Important Timestamps

• 02:51 – 04:50: Iran’s asymmetric capabilities and the predictability of current escalation
• 08:37 – 10:38: Diagnosing U.S. strategic blind spots and failures in planning
• 11:04 – 13:55: Economic pressures, oil prices, and potential policy contradictions
• 15:06 – 18:36: Environmental and economic costs beyond oil; risks with trapped vessels
• 19:40 – 23:00: Soaring costs of war and implications for U.S. military readiness
• 23:30 – 27:34: Divergent objectives of Israel, Gulf states, and the complex legacy of the Abraham Accords
• 34:34 – 39:17: Tensions with Europe and NATO, plus the challenge of asymmetric/Iranian terrorism in Europe
• 42:02 – 45:39: Asian allies’ economic interests and strategic anxieties
• 46:40 – 50:07: China’s complex approach and indirect involvement
• 50:46 – 56:46: Congress’s muted role, the emergency supplemental, and election-year budget politics

Conclusion

This episode delivers an incisive, sober survey of the widening Gulf crisis — analytically rich and unsparing in its depiction of American and allied policy dilemmas, Iranian adaptive tactics, and the multiplying unintended consequences for the global order, from economics to alliance durability. The conversation’s tone is serious, empirical, and often critical, echoing Lawfare’s commitment to rigor in an era fraught with strategic risk and political posturing.

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