Lawfare Daily: The State of the Gaza Ceasefire and Related Issues, with Joel Braunold

Summary

Summary of "Lawfare Daily: The State of the Gaza Ceasefire and Related Issues, with Joel Braunold"

Podcast Information:

• Title: The Lawfare Podcast
• Host/Author: The Lawfare Institute
• Episode: Lawfare Daily: The State of the Gaza Ceasefire and Related Issues, with Joel Braunold
• Release Date: March 5, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of The Lawfare Podcast, senior editor Scott R. Anderson engages in an in-depth discussion with Joel Braunold, Managing Director for the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace and contributing editor at Lawfare. The conversation centers on the current state of the Gaza ceasefire, the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and related regional dynamics.

---

1. The Gaza Ceasefire: Current Status and Phased Approach

Phase Transition and Ceasefire Status

Joel Braunold outlines the transition from Phase One to Phase Two of the ceasefire agreement. Phase One, which officially ended on March 1st, initially saw successful hostage exchanges and a surge of humanitarian aid without significant issues. However, tensions arose as Hamas began staging ceremonial hostage releases, which increasingly distressed the Israeli population.

• Braunold (04:00): "The first phase was incredibly detailed... humanitarian annex, all these different pieces."
• Braunold (05:07): "Each week that these hostage releases were happening, it got more and more perturbed."

Hamas' Strategy and Israeli Response

Hamas' public displays of hostage releases were intended to project strength and continued support within Gaza. However, these actions had the opposite effect in Israel, hardening public sentiment against Hamas and making the group appear irredeemable.

• Braunold (07:04): "You were supposed to negotiate to get into that... the first part of the agreement, it seemed for the first two weeks it was going pretty well without a hitch."

The Wyckoff Proposal

Following the suspension of hostage releases by Hamas amid accusations of Israeli ceasefire violations, the Trump administration brokered the Wyckoff proposal. This plan seeks to extend the ceasefire for six weeks through Ramadan and Passover, offering 50% of hostages upfront with the remaining 50% contingent on a permanent ceasefire.

• Benkvir (09:15): "50% of the hostages... then we'll negotiate for a permanent ceasefire."
• Braunold (09:54): "It's a very Trumpian thing. 50% upfront, 50% at the end."

US Policy Shifts: Trump vs. Biden Administrations

Under the Trump administration, the approach shifted from the Biden administration's phased negotiations. The Trump administration emphasized maintaining the ceasefire as Issue A through F, allowing for discussions on broader topics once the ceasefire was stabilized.

• Braunold (10:43): "The Trump administration has taken a very different approach... keep the ceasefire going."

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2. Hostage Situations and Political Reactions

The Shahrabi Family Incident

A poignant moment in the discussion is the tragic fate of the Shahrabi family. While the father survived, Shiri and her two sons were murdered. Subsequent revelations revealed that the body presented as Shiri's was not hers, exacerbating Israeli anger and distrust towards Hamas.

• Braunold (07:49): "Yoden, the father, was alive, but Shiri and her two boys were tragically murdered."
• Braunold (20:08): "Itamar Benkvir accused this hostage of repeating Hamas propaganda to weaken the..."

US Involvement and President Trump's Role

President Trump is portrayed as a key advocate for hostage liberation, distinguishing his administration's stance from partisan Israeli politics. Eli Shahrabi, one of the remaining hostages, has been invited to Washington to meet with Trump, highlighting the US's unique position in prioritizing hostage recovery.

• Braunold (20:57): "He’s flying over for the first time... President Trump wants to meet him."
• Braunold (21:05): "He is President Trump, much like how President Biden was also seen as someone who really cared about the hostages."

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3. Developments in the West Bank and Palestinian Authority

Prisoner Payment Reform

A significant development discussed is the Palestinian Authority's (PA) overhaul of its prisoner payment system. Historically criticized under the Taylor Force Act for incentivizing terrorism by compensating families of prisoners, the PA has shifted to a welfare-based system with stringent eligibility criteria.

• Braunold (23:52): "The major demand of the PA since around 2018... was that they reformed their prisoner payment system."
• Braunold (25:40): "It's run through a new sort of semi-government entity called PENNY."

US and European Scrutiny

The US State Department is set to verify the PA’s compliance with the Taylor Force Act through biannual certifications, ensuring that the new system does not incentivize terrorism and aligns with international humanitarian laws.

• Braunold (27:15): "Taylor Force is a three-part test... all three need to be met to satisfy Taylor Force."
• Braunold (28:19): "The State Department is going to have to... verify that it complies with Taylor Force."

PA’s Assertive Security Role

The PA has taken a more proactive stance against extremist groups like Palestinian Islamic Jihad, signaling its intent to reassert control and facilitate future governance and reconstruction efforts in Gaza.

• Braunold (35:11): "The PA demonstrated, if not capacity, but intent."
• Braunold (37:20): "The prisoner payment reform... is an important step along the way."

Regional Dynamics and Arab States’ Involvement

As the PA moves towards reform, regional actors like Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are actively engaged in shaping the future of Palestinian governance, balancing between pressures for security reforms and maintaining political stability.

• Braunold (38:17): "Abbas is very much the odd man out... maintaining some semblance of independence."
• Braunold (38:46): "The PA is trying to open up with the Trump administration in a positive dynamic."

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4. Other Regional Issues: Syria and Lebanon

Tensions in Southern Syria

Israel has escalated its rhetoric around defending Druze communities in southern Syria amid fears of Turkish influence expanding near its borders. Despite diplomatic efforts, such as the proposed mediation by Azerbaijan, tensions remain high with potential clashes looming.

• Braunold (42:00): "Israelis are welcoming the Druze... offer work visas into Israel."
• Braunold (43:08): "Israelis fear Erdogan more than they fear the Russians."

Israeli-Lebanese Border Dynamics

The Israeli withdrawal from strategic locations in Southern Lebanon remains stalled, awaiting the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to demonstrate control. The ongoing tensions with Hezbollah continue to strain relations, with the Trump administration's influence seen as pivotal yet transient.

• Braunold (45:56): "We're not going to withdraw... We're not obeying fake timelines."
• Braunold (46:44): "The Lebanese front seems less... but the Syrian front is blowing up."

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5. US Foreign Assistance Shifts under Trump

Cuts to Foreign Assistance

Under the Trump administration, significant cuts have been made to US foreign assistance to the PA, including the termination of long-term contracts and the suspension of economic and security aid. These cuts aim to pressure the PA into adhering to the Taylor Force Act and reforming its policies.

• Braunold (49:08): "All of those contracts were terminated."
• Braunold (50:43): "The USAID sort of canceled up... everything has been suspended."

Increased Security Assistance to Israel

Conversely, the Trump administration has bolstered security assistance to Israel, revoking previous restrictions and expediting aid through emergency provisions. This move underscores a pronounced shift towards unwavering US support for Israel, bypassing standard congressional oversight processes.

• Braunold (54:10): "The Trump administration can rebirth MEPA in some way..."
• Braunold (53:37): "We're not going to push the Netanyahu... We're not in the game of finding bridging proposals."

Implications for Israeli-Palestinian Relations

The juxtaposition of reduced assistance to the PA and increased security aid to Israel exacerbates tensions, undermining efforts for dialogue and economic development in Palestinian territories. The administration's stance appears to prioritize immediate security concerns over long-term peace initiatives.

• Braunold (55:16): "There's one day when Democrats are in charge again..."
• Braunold (56:46): "These are the hard questions... What does that mean?"

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Conclusion and Future Outlook

The episode highlights a critical juncture in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, marked by shifting US policies, internal Palestinian reforms, and escalating regional tensions. The future remains uncertain, contingent upon the effectiveness of diplomatic efforts, the implementation of PA reforms, and the stability of regional alliances. As both the ceasefire and broader peace initiatives hang in the balance, stakeholders await decisive actions from key players like Steve Wyckoff and the emerging Arab proposals.

• Braunold (58:35): "The region's trying to come up with plans... but the Trump administration is like, look."
• Braunold (58:52): "Everyone is waiting for Mr. Wyckoff... The Arab plan is coming out tomorrow."

The podcast underscores the complexity of achieving lasting peace, emphasizing that without coordinated efforts and mutual concessions, the cycle of conflict is likely to persist.

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Notable Quotes:

• Joel Braunold (02:02): "Once it's going, we can talk about everything else... rather than pack it all into one."
• Joel Braunold (09:38): "The principal Netanyahu said on Saturday night... look, we're willing to take a break and extend the ceasefire."
• Joel Braunold (14:36): "The Trump administration has taken a very different approach... keep the ceasefire going."
• Joel Braunold (20:01): "Everything you did to them was us."
• Joel Braunold (27:16): "Taylor Force is a three-part test... all three needs to be met."
• Joel Braunold (38:60): "The PA is trying to prove it's indispensable."

---

Final Thoughts

This episode of The Lawfare Podcast provides a comprehensive analysis of the intricate and evolving dynamics surrounding the Gaza ceasefire and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Through expert insights and detailed discussions, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of the challenges and potential pathways toward peace in a region fraught with historical and contemporary tensions.

Transcript

[Scott R. Anderson]

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[Joel Braunold]

Where we sit right now is that the Israelis have not really projected their.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Own vision of a day after they've.

[Joel Braunold]

Just said, we'll take whatever President Trump gives us and are really playing behind whatever President Trump decides to do. And President Trump said, you know, the Israelis can do whatever they want to do.

[Scott R. Anderson]

It's the Lawfare Podcast. I'm senior editor Scott R. Anderson with Joel Braunold, managing director for the S. Daniel Abraham center for Middle East Peace, and a contributing editor here at Lawfare.

[Joel Braunold]

Trump administration is like, look, let's keep the ceasefire going. That is issue A, B, C, D, E and F. Let's keep it going. And once it's going, we can talk about everything else. If we can get to an end of the war, we can build off that and then do something rather than pack it all into one. And so I think that's also been a distinct shift in strategy.

[Scott R. Anderson]

For today's episode, we are discussing the latest developments relating to the Gaza cease fire and the state of the broader Israeli Palestinian conflict. So, Joel, the last time we sat down for one of these conversations, you noted that March 1st was going to be a very big day or thereabouts, because we saw a lot of dates lining up for big deliverables or big developments on that day. That was more or less when the first phase of the ceasefire was supposed to end and transition to the second phase, at least under the original schedule, more or less. When President Trump suggested that you would see a US Position on annexation of the West Bank, a number of other items lined up with that kind of March 1st date. Now we're on the other side of that. We're recording this around midday, I guess in the afternoon on March 3rd. Just to timestamp this for folks who might be listening to this later or in case things happen. Before this gets out on our podcast feed, let's talk about what developments we've seen come about about this date, some of which are still happening, are still being drawn out. The schedule has shifted a little bit, I think, for a number of these. Let's start with the ceasefire. We are now, I think it's fair to say, out of phase one or at the very end of phase one of the ceasefire as originally envisioned, and into maybe phase two or maybe something a little different. Talk to us about where we are on the ceasefire and where the trajectory is, insofar as it's not the same simple three phase plan that the Biden administration, Trump administration seem to work to during those last few weeks before the Trump administration came into office.

[Joel Braunold]

So let's start off by saying the.

[Unnamed Speaker]

First phase officially ended on the 1st of March. If you remember when you looked at.

[Joel Braunold]

The three phase plan, the first phase was incredibly detailed. The amount of hostages for the amount of prisoners, when it would be scheduled. There was a humanitarian annex, all these different pieces. But Israel's insisted since the three phase process had come down during the Biden.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Administration, that there was no automatic transition.

[Joel Braunold]

From phase one to phase two and.

[Unnamed Speaker]

From phase two to phase three.

[Joel Braunold]

And they received a side letter confirming.

[Unnamed Speaker]

That from the Biden administration.

[Joel Braunold]

In order for phase two to happen.

[Unnamed Speaker]

There had to be credible negotiations going.

[Joel Braunold]

On that were supposed to start on.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Day 16 of the first phase.

[Joel Braunold]

About phase two. So let's firstly, before we talk about.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The switch of phases and where we're.

[Joel Braunold]

Up to, let's talk about phase one. So throughout phase one, there was a successful exchange of hostages for prisoners and detainees that went through. There was humanitarian, a huge surge of humanitarian trucks going into the strip.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And throughout the beginning, the first part of the agreement, it seemed for the.

[Joel Braunold]

First two weeks it was going pretty well without a hitch. But what Hamas decided to do was that every time it released hostages, it.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Decided to do sort of a theater of a macabre where they'd have these displays of celebration and victory.

[Joel Braunold]

They clear sort of a space in Gaza.

[Unnamed Speaker]

So they'd had these trucks come into Gaza and bulldozers.

[Joel Braunold]

And rather than bulldozing to sort of create new space for, like, these housing, they just created space for these stages where at different, different parts there were stages, and hostages would get up and then they'd be given to the Red Cross and they'd be taken back. And each week that these hostage releases were happening, it got more and more perturbed. Now, on the first one, there were crowds and they were given certificates. On the second ones, the crowds got really involved and very near to the hostages, and it really freake freaked out the Israeli population.

[Unnamed Speaker]

On the third one, you had the.

[Joel Braunold]

Three men who were described, you know, were incredibly emaciated, and it kept going on. And after the emaciated one, you know.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Why Hamas was doing this, to show that they're still in charge and that they've got popular support.

[Joel Braunold]

Though if you zoom out on the camera, maybe there was maximum, like a.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Thousand people at each of these things. But the images that were portrayed in.

[Joel Braunold]

Israel is, look, everyone in Gaza supports this. Why wasn't anyone helping them? And especially when you had the release.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Of the three individuals, men who looked.

[Joel Braunold]

Very emaciated, it caused real reaction in Israel and Hamas. You know, it's often said that, you know, Israelis and Palestinians are the worst.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Analysts of each other. If Hamas thought by doing these displays.

[Joel Braunold]

That they were putting pressure on the government of Israel to continue them, in.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Many ways, what they were actually doing.

[Joel Braunold]

Was creating an environment, at least in Israel, where Hamas became completely irredeemable. There was no benefit saying, at least.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The hostages are alive and they didn't kill them.

[Joel Braunold]

It was, you know, how, you know.

[Unnamed Speaker]

They look like they've been fed, but.

[Joel Braunold]

Our hostages weren't fed.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Look, the.

[Joel Braunold]

The civilians are all complicit in all of this and really drove up sort of the rage in Israel, and it was peaking. And Hamas decided after I think, the third or fourth release, they announced that.

[Unnamed Speaker]

They were suspending the hostage releases given.

[Joel Braunold]

Israeli violations, as they said, of the ceasefire agreement, including Israeli forces shooting at.

[Unnamed Speaker]

People who came close to Israeli security.

[Joel Braunold]

Positions, as well as the not allowing of certain goods and items in through Rafah that they had originally agreed to.

[Unnamed Speaker]

When they made that announcement, the Trump administration and President Trump had said, okay, they've broken the deal.

[Joel Braunold]

Israel should release, you know, should open the gates of hell on them. That put pressure on Netanyahu to say, okay, you know, cancel the rest of it and Just go after Hamas.

[Unnamed Speaker]

But there was equal pressure to still try and get the hostages out. So the mediators came in and they.

[Joel Braunold]

Worked out an agreement.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And so the releases continued. But again, it was sort of building to an emotional peak about the Bibas family. And if you remember, on the last.

[Joel Braunold]

Pod, I spoke about, you know, what would be the condition of the Bibas family. And sadly, Yoden, the father, was alive, but Shiri and her two boys were tragically murdered. And Hamas decided, along with Oded Lifshit.

[Unnamed Speaker]

To sort of do this ceremony with caskets.

[Joel Braunold]

Again, like doing this huge ceremonial thing and passing it off, much to, you know. And it. That there was.

[Unnamed Speaker]

There were images calling them a prisoner on the coffin.

[Joel Braunold]

And it just drove the Israelis completely bananas.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And then to add insult to injury.

[Joel Braunold]

When they were opened up at the.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Forensic lab, it turned out that Shir's.

[Joel Braunold]

Body was not Sher's body, it was someone else's body.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And instantaneously, the government of Israel demanded.

[Joel Braunold]

That, you know, the mediators that.

[Unnamed Speaker]

That day that the body was returned to them.

[Joel Braunold]

And amazingly, Hamas did it within a day without a ceremony, demonstrating that it is possible to do all this stuff without ceremonial releases. So the last part of the hostage and prisoner release sort of concluded on the first. And the Israelis said, look, we're not.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Transitioning to phase two. We're not withdrawing from the Philadelphia crossing.

[Joel Braunold]

Hamas said, well, you're breaking the agreement. And then Prime Minister Netanyahu said on Saturday night, you know, I'm agreeing to the Wyckoff proposal, which is Steve Wyckoff, the president's special envoy on this.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And he said, look, the Wyckoff proposal is very simple. We take a break, we extend the ceasefire for six weeks.

[Joel Braunold]

So it goes all the way through.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Ramadan, which started on the 1st, and all the way through Passover, so all.

[Joel Braunold]

The holy festivals it'll cover. And it's very simple. You give us 50% of the hostages and alive and dead right now, and then we'll negotiate for a permanent ceasefire.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Which is a big deal for Prime Minister Netanyahu, a permanent ceasefire. And at the end of the six weeks, if we've agreed to a permanent.

[Joel Braunold]

Ceasefire, you give us the other 50% or we go back to war. Very clear. And in many ways, the simplicity prevents any debate about this. It's a very clear, in many ways, very Trumpian thing. 50% upfront, 50% at the end.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Very clear.

[Joel Braunold]

And we can take those six weeks, try and work out if there's anything to talk about.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Now, there's been Some confusion about whether.

[Joel Braunold]

This was Steve Wykoff's proposal or whether this was Netanyahu's. It seems like in the press the Trump administration has not sworn it off.

[Unnamed Speaker]

They're willing to adopt it.

[Joel Braunold]

So whether it is or not, it.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Has now been seen as the Wyckoff proposal.

[Joel Braunold]

And it's unclear if Hamas has formally.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Rejected it or is waiting for it to be.

[Joel Braunold]

To be presented.

[Unnamed Speaker]

So seeing that the ceasefire officially ended on the 1st of March, you would ask, well, why hasn't the war restarted? Right. And it's not just you who would ask that. There are many in Israel say, okay.

[Joel Braunold]

Why are we not opening the gates of hell? You know, the whole point was that.

[Unnamed Speaker]

If the ceasefire is over, why aren't we doing this?

[Joel Braunold]

Why aren't we moving forward?

[Unnamed Speaker]

Why.

[Joel Braunold]

Why isn't something happen, happening? And Steve Wyckoff is due back in.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The region towards the end of this.

[Joel Braunold]

Week, apparently, where, apparently he will, you know, see if there's space to have things move forward. But what we've seen, Scott, is the.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The Trump administration has taken a very different approach to this than what the Biden administration did. The Biden administration, in their mediation, would often try and create bridging proposals and then sort of push it on the parties to accept it. They would push it on the Israelis.

[Joel Braunold]

And they'd have the Qataris and the Egyptians try and push it on Hamas.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And that's how they arranged sort of like the first phase in this phased approach. Already at the beginning of the first phase, you heard comments from Steve Wyckoff and from President Trump saying that this.

[Joel Braunold]

Wasn'T actually a very good deal.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Especially phase three, given the destruction in.

[Joel Braunold]

Gaza that led to Trump's Gaza comments that I'm sure we'll talk about, you know, that that's unrealistic. And, you know, even phase two, well, the Israelis really withdraw from the Philadelphia crossing, all these things, and they didn't want to really have ownership of this, but they took the first phase and ran with it.

[Unnamed Speaker]

So the.

[Joel Braunold]

What Witkoff's strategy has been is to.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Triangulate the parties to try and at.

[Joel Braunold]

Least get them into conversation about what an end, a permanent ceasefire would do.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Sort of detach it from this phased.

[Joel Braunold]

Approach and say, look, you know, President.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Trump wants bigger hostage releases.

[Joel Braunold]

So, you know, the Wyckoff proposal seems.

[Unnamed Speaker]

To make sense of that.

[Joel Braunold]

Like it's two large releases, one at the beginning, one at the end, while we negotiate to see if there is a conclusion that we can all come to. And reading between the public lines and Everything else, it seems like the only line that the Trump administration has is that they fully agree that Hamas can no longer play any governing role in any sense in Gaza. That's the conclusion. So, and of course, Hamas is not.

[Unnamed Speaker]

There, whereas they've said, well, we're willing.

[Joel Braunold]

To take back a governance role. We still want to be an armed militia there. That's unacceptable for the Israelis. So where we sit right now is that the Israelis have not really projected.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Their own vision of a day after.

[Joel Braunold]

They'Ve just said, we'll take whatever President.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Trump gives us and are really playing.

[Joel Braunold]

Behind whatever President Trump decides to do. And President Trump said, the Israelis can do whatever they want to do.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And in the meantime, the Arab quintet.

[Joel Braunold]

Are trying to come up with their own proposal about Gaza, because, as you mentioned before, President Trump came in with this big vision of Gaza, which is.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Gaza without Gazans, that they can voluntarily leave and the US Would take ownership.

[Joel Braunold]

And the Israelis are like, great, we'll do that. That's like a statement, not a plan. And as a reaction to that, the.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Region'S tried to come up with its own plan.

[Joel Braunold]

And tomorrow on the 4th, at the Arab Summit in Cairo, the plan, the.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Arab plan should be presented. It's an Egyptian plan that's supposed to be presented that demonstrates that they can.

[Joel Braunold]

Rebuild Gaza, that the region can put.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Money in, that there can be a.

[Joel Braunold]

Governance, that it can be done without Gazans moving, and that that's the plan, and that's what's going to move forward. So where, you know, as you try and unpack all of these different pieces of the Rubik's Cube, where does that leave us today? The Israelis have basically said, we're waiting for Wyckoff. We're not going to start the war again, but we're going to start tightening the screws on Hamas because the ceasefire is over. So yesterday it was announced that they've cut off all aid to Gaza. Again, nothing's going in. They say, you know, during the previous ceasefire, there's enough calories to sustain everyone in the territory for four months. It's within the laws of war. They claim that we can cut off all aid because, you know, Hamas is diverting it anyway.

[Unnamed Speaker]

No one's going to starve during this period.

[Joel Braunold]

And if Hamas wants the aid back on, they can accept the Wyckoff proposal. And when Mr. Wyckoff comes, I'm sure they're going to try and see if there is, if they do accept a.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Bridging proposal between the parties that can sustain the ceasefire.

[Joel Braunold]

And if Not Israel's been intimating quite.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Publicly through leaks and others, that they.

[Joel Braunold]

Will go back to the war and.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The war will be fought with a far greater ferociousness than it was before.

[Joel Braunold]

And with no limits from the Trump administration. And so we're currently in this waiting period right now to see if the ceasefire will maintain, because at the moment.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Hamas has a ceasefire without giving hostages.

[Joel Braunold]

They might have lost access to aid and Israel might cut off water and electricity eventually, but the war hasn't restarted yet, and they're not giving up hostages.

[Unnamed Speaker]

So we're in this sort of liminal phase where everyone's trying to work out what to do.

[Joel Braunold]

I think everyone's waiting for Steve Wyckoff.

[Scott R. Anderson]

And remind us, for folks who may not have tuned in for our last conversation, what the original Phase two vision was and where we are status quo. Wise. Israel is still camped out in substantial parts of Gaza, including the Philadelphia corridor you mentioned before. And Hamas still has. Has about 60 hostages, if I recall correctly. Is that right? That we're still waiting on the return.

[Joel Braunold]

Of, I think the latest figure, and I apologize if I get this wrong, I think there's probably supposed to be.

[Unnamed Speaker]

23 hostages that are still assumed to.

[Joel Braunold]

Be alive and around 50 bodies. The ones they're holding are males of a certain, you know, of military age.

[Unnamed Speaker]

It doesn't mean they were all soldiers.

[Joel Braunold]

When they were kidnapped. They just.

[Unnamed Speaker]

That's how they define them.

[Joel Braunold]

Some were soldiers, some aren't. And so the second phase was supposed to be about their negotiation, about their releases alongside prisoner exchanges, as well as Israel withdrawing from the Philadelphia cross border.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Which is the border between Israel and.

[Joel Braunold]

Egypt, as well as conversations about how.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The war can end.

[Joel Braunold]

So it's supposed to be substantive conversations about how that can happen and moving into governance and reconstruction.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The entire Phase two was described in four sentences. It wasn't a particularly long annex.

[Joel Braunold]

The whole point is you were supposed to negotiate to get into that. The Israelis have said, under no circumstances are we leaving the Philadelphia corridor. So in many ways, that forbids a.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Transition to Phase Two.

[Joel Braunold]

But the Israelis are saying, look, the whole point of a phased approach was that they do not automatically shift, okay? And they'll say, The Israelis will say.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Look, we haven't restarted the war, so.

[Joel Braunold]

Don'T claim that we've got bad faith. We've put out a bridging proposal for.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Something that would be acceptable. 50% up front will extend all the way through Ramadan. For those who say that we're cruel will extend all the way through Passover.

[Joel Braunold]

We can Talk about what the. The percentages of hostages for prisoner releases are, what, humanitarian stuff.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And we can take six weeks to.

[Joel Braunold]

See if we can find an agreeable outcome to have a permanent ceasefire.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And the fact that the prime minister.

[Joel Braunold]

Went on television said, I can agree.

[Unnamed Speaker]

To a permanent ceasefire in six weeks.

[Joel Braunold]

I mean, you either believe them or you don't. And I think that for Hamas, what.

[Unnamed Speaker]

They need to believe in order to be able to even entertain going into.

[Joel Braunold]

This is that the Trump administration does.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Not want to see an act of war in Gaza kick off again. Right.

[Joel Braunold]

That they do not want to see the return to the images.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And if that's the case and that.

[Joel Braunold]

That'S the restraint, that at least then maybe they'll be able to negotiate something. The problem is that Hamas, you know, I don't know how they're going to get there.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And how will the region react? Like the region has already, seemingly, from the leaks of the Egyptian document, have.

[Joel Braunold]

Said, you know, Hamas can't be in charge regardless of what happens. Hamas cannot enjoy, you know, governance capacity. And Hamas seems to be able to agree with that. But Hamas wants a Hezbollah model where they're sort of, they're not in charge, but they're the real power broker, at least militarily. And for Israel, that's just completely unacceptable. And so, you know, there had been.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Reports that the Egyptians had suggested sort of a DDR modality where Hamas moves all of its weapons to a warehouse.

[Joel Braunold]

That can be monitored. And if there isn't a political process, then, you know, they can get those weapons back. But if there is that, that's how you do it. So far, Hamas has said absolutely not.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And the question will be, if they do manage to enter this Witkoff phase.

[Joel Braunold]

What will be the pressures on Hamas to, you know, give up, you know.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Will they go into exile, all of these sort of questions, or won't they? And if they won't, what will the.

[Joel Braunold]

Arab states do to try and encourage.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Them to do so? Because without that, the alternative to a negotiated solution or the Batman. Right.

[Joel Braunold]

What's the best alternative to a negotiated outcome?

[Unnamed Speaker]

Well, in this case, the Israelis have.

[Joel Braunold]

Said we will prosecute the war again.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Even more hard than we did before. There will be no restraint from the United States. Oh, and by the way, the president's vision of a Gaza without Gazans, he.

[Joel Braunold]

Might say voluntarily transfer. Fine.

[Unnamed Speaker]

We will push to open up the gates of Gaza to allow any Gazans to leave and anyone who remains. Well, if they've chosen to remain, we're.

[Joel Braunold]

Going to prosecute this war mercilessly and.

[Unnamed Speaker]

You know, put four divisions of soldiers and just go from top to bottom and clear it out. And for many in Israel, that's what they want.

[Joel Braunold]

But it goes back to the fundamental question, will that sacrifice the hostages and what does that mean? And B, is there a military solution to Hamas?

[Unnamed Speaker]

If you believe there is, then this.

[Joel Braunold]

Enables the Israeli right and the far right to sort of live out their.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Fantasy to see what that actually looks like.

[Joel Braunold]

But if you think there isn't, then.

[Unnamed Speaker]

This will just lead to more deaths.

[Joel Braunold]

And a war that really Gazans and Israelis don't want to return to but.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Will be pushed into because there's no.

[Joel Braunold]

Alternative in terms of what might happen. So that's the sort of precipice of the moment we're on. And in the back of all of this is there are still 23 alive hostages and around 50 bodies. And what will happen there, I'll just say on that, Scott, Today was a very difficult day in the Knesset, the Israeli legislative body. The prime minister was giving a response to the opposition, and hostage families wanted to attend his speech, and the speaker of the Knesset cleared the gallery, and.

[Unnamed Speaker]

There was a fight between the Knesset.

[Joel Braunold]

Guards and hostage families, and the hostage families were beaten. And this was shown on Israeli television.

[Unnamed Speaker]

In terms of this and very distressing pictures.

[Joel Braunold]

And the whole I've spoken before about how the hostage issue has become partisan and political. But one person who really wants to.

[Unnamed Speaker]

See the hostages return is President Trump.

[Joel Braunold]

And there was one hostage, one of.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The emaciated members, a guy called Eli.

[Joel Braunold]

Shahrabi, who went on Israeli television on.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Their main program of the and spoke about his experiences. And one of the things he said.

[Joel Braunold]

Was that, you know, every time it was put on the media that Itamar.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Bengvir, the national security minister, who's since resigned, said that he was going to.

[Joel Braunold]

Punish Palestinian prisoners more and hurt them. We were then beaten and we were then starved. So everything you did to them was us. And it was a shocking thing that Israelis heard.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And Itamar Benkvir accused this hostage of.

[Joel Braunold]

Repeating Hamas propaganda to weaken the you know, and so it's all sort of bubbling up and boiling. But what's interesting is that Elishevi has.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Been invited to Washington. I'm pretty sure he'll be at the joint session of Congress tomorrow.

[Joel Braunold]

Apparently, Miriam Adelson's flown him over. President Trump wants to meet him.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And ironically, as it's been said that he's flying over for the first time, the prime minister, Prime Minister Netanyahu called.

[Joel Braunold]

Ali Shirabi and said, you know, I know it's taken us a long time to speak, but it's important to tell President Trump what you're feeling. So there's this feeling like the person.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Who really cares about the hostages is.

[Joel Braunold]

President Trump, much like how President Biden.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Was also seen as someone who really.

[Joel Braunold]

Cared about the hostages more than the politics of that.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And sitting behind all of this, and.

[Joel Braunold]

I know this has been a lot to sort of sort through, sitting behind all of this is the IDF's initial investigation into the failures of October 7th.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Came out this week, and it was a disaster.

[Joel Braunold]

You can see, like, what happened in the kibbutzim, what happened here, what happened there. Interestingly, despite the fact that it was claimed that it was Gazan workers who had spied on Israeli kibbutzim, the report.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Demonstrated that wasn't the case.

[Joel Braunold]

It was soldiers who were just loose.

[Unnamed Speaker]

On social media, gave mapping of the basis that Hamas was able to see.

[Joel Braunold]

So, you know, lots of things that.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Were said and had huge emotive impacts and closed off policy options turned out.

[Joel Braunold]

Not to be true.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And in the background, there's been this desire and this demand that there is a state inquiry. And the prime minister has resisted a state inquiry, saying, I'm not going to do that. I want a Knesset inquiry instead.

[Joel Braunold]

And this is one of the debates that the hostage families were having in the Knesset when they were thrown out. And so all of this, again, it's all boiling again, and what's going to happen.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And so this is sort of the pressure.

[Joel Braunold]

Can we get into another phase that can lead to the hostage releases? I'll finish off this long answer with this.

[Unnamed Speaker]

John Pollin, who is Hirsch Goldberg, Poland's.

[Joel Braunold]

Father, made a comment to the podcast Unholy where he said, look, you know.

[Unnamed Speaker]

I don't understand why we can't prioritize getting the hostages out now and then.

[Joel Braunold]

Dealing with Hamas later. You know, if President Trump's got us back, you know, if we get the.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Hostages out now and in six weeks, we can't do it, or whatever it is.

[Joel Braunold]

If you have to withdraw from Philadelphia and then you have to go back.

[Unnamed Speaker]

In triple hard, why can't we prioritize their lives today?

[Joel Braunold]

I don't understand. He's like, whether we want to debate.

[Unnamed Speaker]

If there's a military solution or there's.

[Joel Braunold]

Not, fine, there can be debate, but there should be no debate that we.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Could save these people's lives today and.

[Joel Braunold]

Return to the war another time. And that's really the central debate that's happening in Israel right now and is.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Incredibly emotive in terms of what's happening.

[Scott R. Anderson]

So, of course, Gaza remains and has been the focus of a lot of the conversations around the region around Israeli Palestinian relations really for the last two years, almost now. But we also have significant developments happening in the west bank and in relation to the Palestinian Authority. Let me start actually with something that was a little bit of a lower profile, but might have been a big deal, certainly before October 7th. And that is the fact that we appear to have reached some sort of agreement regarding prisoner payments, something that has been a major burr in the US Palestinian relationship, including potential legal obstacle in relation to certain claims against the Palestinian Authority and the PLO that are currently before the US Supreme Court. Talk to us about this compromise on prisoner payments that appears to be sticking, at least for the time being, and how it may fit into this broader narrative about U.S. palestinian relations and the Israeli Palestinian conflict.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Sure.

[Joel Braunold]

So the major demand of the PA.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Since around 2018, when the Taylor Force.

[Joel Braunold]

Act was passed, was that they reformed their prisoner payment system.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The Palestinians have a prisoner payment system.

[Joel Braunold]

That uses the length of service, the length of time someone's been convicted to work out how much money their family can get or if in terms of master payments. And so Americans and Israelis as well as lots of other people have said.

[Unnamed Speaker]

That that's an incentivized, that's incentivizing terror.

[Joel Braunold]

And until the PA stops that practice.

[Unnamed Speaker]

They should be sanctioned. And so the US created the Taylor.

[Joel Braunold]

Force act that prevented any economic support.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Funds to going to the PA that.

[Joel Braunold]

Would directly benefit the PA as long as this. As you mentioned, there were also jurisdictional elements that was put into the Anti Terrorism Clarification act as amended and other parts. And the Israelis also started deducting money.

[Unnamed Speaker]

That they were using for this following.

[Joel Braunold]

The US Passage of the law, and have subsequently passed additional laws that allow.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Victims of terror to sort of take.

[Joel Braunold]

Deductions off from what they've deducted from that amount so that they can be recon, they can be compensated. So throughout the Biden administration, there had.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Been a huge amount of diplomacy done.

[Joel Braunold]

To try and get this over the line. And there's been some good reporting of this. Jacob McGinn of Times of Israel did.

[Unnamed Speaker]

A long piece about the history of.

[Joel Braunold]

This, as did a few others Axios, of course. But it appears that during the Biden administration, they got all the way up.

[Unnamed Speaker]

To sort of the line.

[Joel Braunold]

But President Abbas didn't sign the decree. And this new model is transitioning the.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Palestinians to a welfare based system where.

[Joel Braunold]

Everyone who is needy gets to apply for Welfare.

[Unnamed Speaker]

There are 42 different checks on what.

[Joel Braunold]

That welfare would look like.

[Unnamed Speaker]

There is no consideration to sort of.

[Joel Braunold]

Prison, lengths of service or what you've done.

[Unnamed Speaker]

If you are a rich family and.

[Joel Braunold]

Your breadwinner goes to jail, you're not going to get anything.

[Unnamed Speaker]

If you're a poor person and you're.

[Joel Braunold]

For everybody goes to jail, there's a.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Whole series of checks. Do you have a car?

[Joel Braunold]

Do you have a washing machine like.

[Unnamed Speaker]

In a standard World bank system?

[Joel Braunold]

And so it's run through a new sort of semi government entity called penny. The PLO executive member Ahmed Majdelani runs and it's separate. And the reports are that the PA.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Had really negotiated this closely with the.

[Joel Braunold]

State Department so that the whole point.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Of this exercise was not hoodwinking people.

[Joel Braunold]

It'S very easy to figure it out.

[Unnamed Speaker]

But that the new system would comply.

[Joel Braunold]

With U.S. standing law. And they didn't get it all the way to the finish line by the end of Biden, you know, but two weeks ago, I think or three weeks ago, President Abbas basically on a Monday.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Published a declaration that he's enacted this law and the new systems in place.

[Joel Braunold]

So what happened? The Israelis quickly said it's a lie, it's a con, don't believe them, ignore it. But what was interesting was that it.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Took around 36 hours. But the Trump State Department welcomed it with cautious optimism, as did some skeptics like Sandy Gerber, who was the author.

[Joel Braunold]

You know, one of the big advocates.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Of the law and others saying, look.

[Joel Braunold]

I'm very skeptical and if it's real.

[Unnamed Speaker]

We'Ll see protests in the streets of.

[Joel Braunold]

Ramallah because lots of people will lose their money.

[Unnamed Speaker]

But we should be cautiously optimistic and let's, you know, let's not trust but verify. And so now the State Department is.

[Joel Braunold]

Going, as this new system is implemented, is going to have to go in and actually verify that it complies with Taylor Force.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Now, Taylor Force is a three part test. It's not just changing the system. They have to also continue security cooperation with the Israelis and condemn acts of terror. So all three of those need to be met in order to satisfy Taylor Force. And if the certification is made, it.

[Joel Braunold]

Needs to be made every, every 180 days. It wasn't just the Americans asking for this.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Europeans conditioned as one of their KPIs of their assistance to the PA said one of the critical elements of a reformed revitalized PA is prisoner payment reform.

[Joel Braunold]

And so that was also Important for.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The Europeans and for the region. If they're going to invest in a.

[Joel Braunold]

Post Gaza that involves at all the PA or if they're going to help.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Out the PA in the west bank, they want to see reform. And part of that reform is prisoner.

[Joel Braunold]

Payments and was sort of very important since the announcement.

[Unnamed Speaker]

President Abbas seemingly made a statement in.

[Joel Braunold]

Fatah that claimed that people would continue to get their money. It was unclear if he was talking about they have got their money or they will get their money. But that caused a lot of skepticism. But basically we're all waiting to see.

[Unnamed Speaker]

If the State Department will certify, you know, once this new system is officially in place.

[Joel Braunold]

I think it's supposed to start being in place starting this month.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And then the Israeli system basically has an annual check. So every year they'll go through and they'll check by looking at the bank accounts. So the Israelis will know in a.

[Joel Braunold]

Year about whether this is real or not.

[Unnamed Speaker]

In the previous year they did see payments to prisoners drop by 20% so.

[Joel Braunold]

They only deducted 80% of what they did before. Part of that is because of the.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Cross cutting nature of just the cuts that were going through the pa.

[Joel Braunold]

So everyone was getting less. But other parts I think is that, you know, cutting out Hamas people from the system and others that you know, sort of how it works.

[Unnamed Speaker]

So we'll see in terms of, as it moves forward.

[Joel Braunold]

But the prisoner payment reform, you know, it depends what school of thought you're in.

[Unnamed Speaker]

If you believe that the incentivizing for terror was one of the main reasons people committed acts of terror. This is a historic transformation and should.

[Joel Braunold]

Be seen as that. If you think it was like one.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Of many different things, then it's an important step along the way.

[Joel Braunold]

But either way it shouldn't be diminished. But again, the, the proof is in.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The pudding and should the certification happen, it should look over a turnover, a.

[Joel Braunold]

New leaf that the PA is, is doing different things and to the point about protests. There were protests and President Abbas fired the head of the prisoners club, Kadura Faras. And if it was just a fake.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Reform, he wouldn't be firing the head.

[Joel Braunold]

Of the prisoners club. So there have been protests in anger and we'll see if that protest in anger continues.

[Scott R. Anderson]

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[Scott R. Anderson]

This is kind of an interesting development because of course it's happening at both an incredibly tense moment in the west bank where the PA is still the governing authority, but also a moment where we're getting other reports of the PA pivoting strategy a little bit. This past weekend in the Times, they ran a lengthy report describing how the PA's own security forces, which at this point actually have quite a long history of close cooperation with Israeli security forces, one that has suffered a bit in recent years due to lapses in US Cooperation and foreign assistance, which facilitated at various points, certainly has suffered challenges the last few years, but nonetheless has a longer history of what many people credit as fairly successful joint security cooperation. There's now actually taking a much more assertive stance against local extremist groups, in particular Palestinian Islamic Jihad and a couple of other groups that are essentially cracking down on them after initially being a little avoidance of direct conflict, content to allow the Israelis to aggressively target them. Now the PA forces are doing the same thing, even as Israelis are also launching their own offensive that are often quite controversial in terms of their consequences for Palestinians in the West Bank. Talked about the dynamics in the west bank right now. Is the PA trying to posture itself in a certain political position because of the potential for a settlement in Gaza because of global scrutiny of what Israel is doing in West Bank? What explains these different shifts and what is the trajectory of events at west bank right now?

[Unnamed Speaker]

I think there's a few different motivating factors. So as you mentioned, it started off in Jenin. There was the Jenin camp sort of group that was, you know, shot at the PA forces and everything else. I think there was an attempt to see if the PA could go in.

[Joel Braunold]

There and actually deal with this. And there were a few things.

[Unnamed Speaker]

One, I think what happened in Syria.

[Joel Braunold]

You know, with Jelani's forces of reconstituting Syria. And that coming up was a question about, you know, would the same thing.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Happen in the West Bank, Right.

[Joel Braunold]

Would you start seeing people trying to.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Overthrow the PA and go in? So the PA had to show dominance and assertiveness.

[Joel Braunold]

You also had at the beginning of.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The ceasefire, Hamas thanking the militants in the camps. And one of Hamas strategies was to try and create a collapse of the pa. And so the PA was also.

[Joel Braunold]

Being challenged by that.

[Unnamed Speaker]

In addition, if the PA wants to eventually come back into Gaza, it needs.

[Joel Braunold]

To demonstrate it controls the territory in Area A.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Right?

[Joel Braunold]

I'm not even talking about B, but in Area A, that it can control those territories.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And so there was a real sort.

[Joel Braunold]

Of, you know, bleep or get off the pot moment. Like you need to actually demonstrate that you have security control or you don't. I think that they were hopeful. There was a. There was a tribal agreement that then.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Broke down and then the Israelis sort.

[Joel Braunold]

Of went in pretty hard and have stayed there. But as the Times report said and.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Others, the PA demonstrated, if not capacity.

[Joel Braunold]

But intent, the intent that they were willing to actually do the hard thing. And you know what, the pre State of Israel, or just after Israel was founded, when the Antalya ship, where, you know, the IDF basically had to shoot at their own militant groups to demonstrate.

[Unnamed Speaker]

One person, one gun, that this was a moment for the PA and the.

[Joel Braunold]

Pasf, the security forces, to demonstrate. There's one authority and there's one gun. And so I think there was, and.

[Unnamed Speaker]

There has been a shift in terms.

[Joel Braunold]

Of demonstrating that there is an authority and that authority actually has that, you.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Know, the intent was there.

[Joel Braunold]

Whether they have the capacity, I think is still a question.

[Unnamed Speaker]

But the intent demonstrates there is a desire. Because if you are going to build models of the PA returning to Gaza or the PA extending its reach in.

[Joel Braunold]

The west bank, whatever it might be, it requires them to have security control. If there is no security control, then what is anyone talking about? So I think that's why you've seen that.

[Unnamed Speaker]

But when taken together with the prisoner payment reform, I think you can demonstrate that the PA recognizes this is an.

[Joel Braunold]

Existential moment for them and that they either are the state in waiting and.

[Unnamed Speaker]

That requires them to act as such.

[Joel Braunold]

And work with that, or they're not. And the region, if they're going to invest again heavily in a future Palestinian state through the PA with the pa.

[Unnamed Speaker]

They need to have confidence that this.

[Joel Braunold]

Will be a reformed and revitalized pa.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The region split. You know, the.

[Joel Braunold]

The UAE is very antagonistic towards Mahmoud Abbas, personally, the Qataris want to sort of see more of a Hamas, Fatah, sort of technocratic or political unity.

[Unnamed Speaker]

I think the Saudis don't want to see what happened in Iraq and are.

[Joel Braunold]

Just like, don't replace what's there. And, you know, we need to make.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Sure that during transition it's not chaos.

[Joel Braunold]

But let's at least try and see what happens. I think the Jordanians are terrified for their own skin, probably same with the Egyptians. And so the region's constantly triangulating, working.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Out what to do, sort of.

[Joel Braunold]

Abbas is very much the odd man out.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Everyone wants him to do something that.

[Joel Braunold]

Will put him in their corner.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And I think he wants to maintain some semblance of independence.

[Joel Braunold]

But what I found remarkable was it was reported that when early on Steve Wyckoff went to Riyadh, the Saudis put in with Hossein Al Sheikh, the general secretary of the plo. And apparently coming out of that meeting, the PA said that they were willing to work off the deal of the century as an opening starter, which is a huge transition from 2020. And so we've seen the PA actually now try and open up with the.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Trump administration in a positive dynamic.

[Joel Braunold]

And I'll also say something because you said about the deadlines. We haven't heard anything about annexation. But again, a difference between the Trump.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Administration and the Biden administration. The Biden administration decided to try and use the ceasefire as the opening for everything.

[Joel Braunold]

Right.

[Unnamed Speaker]

If we can just get into phase.

[Joel Braunold]

One, the momentum will carry. We'll end the war, we'll set regional normalization on, we'll try and get a.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Pathway to two states.

[Joel Braunold]

It's the unlocking key to everything. I think with the Trump administration, they.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Just want to see the ceasefire hold and the war not to return to Gaza. If that happens, we can talk about everything else, but they don't want to see, for example, the Arab states condition.

[Joel Braunold]

Everything on everything else else.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And so you've got sort of a disconnect.

[Joel Braunold]

And again, the Trump administration, you know.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Whether it's Trump's plan for Gaza, was it just to sort of shake the cage of the region, to have some.

[Joel Braunold]

Them come up with an idea that was pretty effective, if that was what it was. But it did change Israeli polity because.

[Unnamed Speaker]

They all sort of shifted in that direction.

[Joel Braunold]

The Israelis haven't come up with their own plan. Yael pid was in D.C. last week.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And the FDD, he gave his own.

[Joel Braunold]

Plan for Gaza, saying it should be under Egyptian guarantorship for eight years.

[Unnamed Speaker]

So the Opposition is coming up with plans.

[Joel Braunold]

The coalition is seemingly still not coming up with plans, because they can't. And the region's trying to come up with plans. But the Trump administration is like, look.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Let'S keep the ceasefire going. That is issue A, B, C, D.

[Joel Braunold]

E and F. Let's keep it going.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And once it's going, we can talk about everything else.

[Joel Braunold]

If we can get to an end of the war, we can build off that and then do something rather than pack it all into one. And so I think that's also been a distinct shift in strategy.

[Scott R. Anderson]

Well, let's take a step outside the Palestinian territories to other countries in the region, because, of course, we have major developments happening with two other countries where Israel is involved militarily on its borders, Lebanon, and then perhaps most of all, Syria. In Syria, of course, we have a new regime headed by what was once known as hts, still transitional at this point, figuring out its own governance picture, but came close to being at blows, or potentially at least threats of being coming at blows with Israel over the past few days, in part because threats, or at least perceived threats against Druze communities in Syria that led to Israel kind of projecting, not, you know, deploying troops, particularly south of Damascus in particular, I think, is the one line that I heard echoed most of the media. Meanwhile, we're having a debate about Israeli withdrawal pursuant to, you know, broader negotiations from Lebanon. We're past a deadline where that was the original intent, and Israel has declined to withdraw from at least a couple of strategic locations in southern Lebanon as originally planned. So talk to us about both of those. Let's start with Syria first. Where are we in Syria? And how big a conflagration was this recent kind of spike in tensions?

[Unnamed Speaker]

I mean, so the Israelis have decided to take attack that seemingly no one else in the world has taken.

[Joel Braunold]

If you look at, you know, the. No one knows what the Trump administration.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Policy is towards Syria, but at least.

[Joel Braunold]

Congressionally, it seems that there has been.

[Unnamed Speaker]

This desire to sort of relax sanctions in order to.

[Joel Braunold]

To allow this new governing capacity to come in. And it was publicly reported in Reuters that the Israelis are pushing hard against that, saying, no, this is still jihadists and suits. Don't do it. Don't do it.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Whereas the rest of the world, you know, the Brits are negotiating between the.

[Joel Braunold]

Turks and, you know, the Kurds, you.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Know, the rest of the region is.

[Joel Braunold]

Welcoming Jelani in and is trying to see if this can be something.

[Unnamed Speaker]

They're moving to a constitutional authority.

[Joel Braunold]

The same time you've got the Israeli foreign minister and defense minister sort of lobbing literal and literary bombs over the side, right?

[Unnamed Speaker]

So, you know, what sort of democracy is this?

[Joel Braunold]

You know, you know, if he's appointing everyone and everything else, don't believe them, don't believe them. And the Israelis decided to cotton onto the Druze community who make up the parts south of Damascus and southern Syria.

[Unnamed Speaker]

To say, we will be the defenders of the Druze, and if no one.

[Joel Braunold]

Else is there, we will be there and we will, we will defend them. And they took an issue, you know, apparently someone from a Druze neighborhood shot at someone, and then there was a question of how would security forces go in.

[Unnamed Speaker]

It seems like it solved itself over the weekend.

[Joel Braunold]

But the Israelis really ramped up very.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Quickly with the rhetoric, as you said.

[Joel Braunold]

That we will ensure no one come in. They're really desperate to try and prevent.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The new Syrian state from sort of solidifying that southern part of it. And they're using the Druze as this part of it and are offering the Druze work visas into Israel, saying, we.

[Joel Braunold]

Are defenders of the Druze, the Druids are part of us. Sort of ironic for those of us who, you know, remember that the Druze.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Community is furious with the Israelis for.

[Joel Braunold]

Not being part of the nation state law.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Throughout the entire Syrian conflict.

[Joel Braunold]

You know, there have been actually market things where Israel did welcome Syrian refugees into their hospitals, very importantly, there was.

[Unnamed Speaker]

No need for them to do so, but they did so lots of good.

[Joel Braunold]

Things, but there was never this focus.

[Unnamed Speaker]

On the needs to be defense of the Druze. Is this just sort of taken old Assadist stuff with some Druids to try.

[Joel Braunold]

And create their own statelet?

[Unnamed Speaker]

It seems what they're really scared about.

[Joel Braunold]

Even more so than Jelani, is that Erdogan will basically control something very close to their border. And for the Israelis, despite the fact that Erdogan is of course a member.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Of NATO, they fear the Turks more than they fear the Russians.

[Joel Braunold]

So the Israelis sent, you know, the.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Prime minister sent his military secretary to.

[Joel Braunold]

Russia to basically say, keep your base.

[Unnamed Speaker]

There, and told the Americans you should.

[Joel Braunold]

Keep their base there because you'd rather it's their base than a Turkish base. People are surprised, and they don't want.

[Unnamed Speaker]

To see Erdogan gain any more power.

[Joel Braunold]

And authority near them and would rather the Russians there and like some whatever, a statelet of Druze, and they're willing to allow people to come in and out rather than have the Turks controlled Syria anywhere close to them and sort of dictating terms in any Way, shape or form.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And this is at the exact same time that of course, given the Ukraine dynamics, that the entire of Europe is coming far closer to Turkey and that.

[Joel Braunold]

Turkey is being seen as a real.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Guarantor of Euro Asian security given the.

[Joel Braunold]

Size of its army and its military capacity. So the Israelis basically are going out.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Very much on an independent edge by themselves. And in many ways the only people they hope to catch them are the Americans. And so you're upping your dependency with.

[Joel Braunold]

This presidency while also becoming more independent to the whole region.

[Unnamed Speaker]

It's a gamble.

[Joel Braunold]

It's.

[Unnamed Speaker]

I understand the logic of the gamble.

[Joel Braunold]

If that's what you're really worried about and you think there's an opportunity to build new allies and to create a territorial buffer, I understand it.

[Unnamed Speaker]

But it is a gamble nonetheless. Because if everyone else disagrees with you and the only person who might semi.

[Joel Braunold]

Agree with you is the Trump administration, how much more in debt do you want to be? Like it might all work out fine or it might not.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And the Trump administration is not going to be there in four years.

[Joel Braunold]

It will be a different administration and then what do you do? And so it's a real risk. And apparently there was a report in.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Yisrael Hayom that the Azerbaijani national security.

[Joel Braunold]

Advisor who was in Israel offered to mediate between Erdogan and the Prime Minister. I don't think that's gone very well. So you know, Israel Turkish relations are far more important regionally than just the.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Relationships between Ankara and Israel which still exist.

[Joel Braunold]

I mean, they're very much a nada. Right. It's very bad.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Right. Very low point.

[Joel Braunold]

And if nada is a high point, but a very low point. But this affects that when it comes to Lebanon. Of course, the previous administration negotiated Lebanon deal. And I think the Israeli's perspective is like, look, when the laf, the Lebanese armed forces actually take over that space, we'll withdraw.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Until that point.

[Joel Braunold]

We're not going to withdraw.

[Unnamed Speaker]

We're not obeying fake timelines.

[Joel Braunold]

We're not doing anything else. They'll say that's pre October 6th thinking.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Once they demonstrate capacity, we can have a conversation.

[Joel Braunold]

But we're not just doing that and Hezbollah gets back to go there because it says so. And it looks like that they won favor with the Trump administration there.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The Americans and the French are the.

[Joel Braunold]

Co guarantors of that agreement. You know, again, they're not going to the south of Damascus there. You know, whether they're in violation or not. It seems like the guarantor said okay, when the LAF can actually do it.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Then we can have a conversation.

[Joel Braunold]

So the Lebanese front seems less, at least at this point, like blowing up and shrinking down, whereas the Syrian front, every day it seems to be like something else. Like they said they were going to go in and then they didn't. And they said they're not going to allow Jelani to be there. And then it's like, will you, won't you?

[Unnamed Speaker]

Do the new Druze community really want.

[Joel Braunold]

To side with Israel, given its popularity status in Syria right now, or do they not? What does that look like?

[Unnamed Speaker]

These are all questions that are sort.

[Joel Braunold]

Of being figured out as it goes and extremely high stakes.

[Scott R. Anderson]

Well, speaking of the United States role in these conflicts, we've seen one other front where we've seen a couple of developments of the last few days in particular, that represents a bit of a pivot or a potential pivot of the Trump administration in terms of a new tax towards Israel in particular, and that is shifts in foreign assistance. On the one hand, we have seen foreign assistance get cut off. That was playing a substantial role in, among other things, facilitating certain types of Israeli Palestinian dialogue and a variety of kind of development work, particularly in west bank and other areas. That's part of the broader kind of macro global program where we've seen foreign assistance suspended at least for 90 days, although at this point a vast majority of US foreign assistance actually has been canceled, at least under existing contracts. And I believe many of these were actually in that latter bucket where it's more of a permanent disruption at this phase. At the same time, we've seen the Trump administration really trumpet the fact that it is leaning into security assistance to Israel. We've seen them essentially say we are revoking the Biden administration national security presidential memorandum policy that imposed certain largely hypothetical limits in practice, with a couple of small exceptions during the Biden administration on security assistance instead restoring security assistance. And not only that, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that he was expediting some of it under emergency provision. I was talking about this with a colleague. I believe this is essentially an effort to bypass what would normally be a congressional notification process that would include an opportunity to put an informal hold, including by minority, on that particular types of security assistance. Instead, by using this emergency provision, they're able to bypass that process and avoid even the potential of what is an informal kind of handshake agreement hold. We saw the Trump administration do that with security assistance to Saudi Arabia and UAE relating to Yemen during the first Trump administration. We think that's the same move happening today. Although I should say my colleague and I weren't 100% sure we weren't able to pin that down exactly. Talk to us about what these sorts of shifts tell us both about what the Trump administration is doing in terms of its policy and the practical ramifications that will adhere to conflict and parties on the ground.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Sure.

[Joel Braunold]

All right, let's start here. So, like in a previous job, I was the head of the alliance for Middle East Peace and I lobbied very.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Hard to help create what became the Middle East Partnership for Peace act, or.

[Joel Braunold]

The Lowy Fund, which was one of.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The few actually authorized as well as.

[Joel Braunold]

Appropriated pieces of aid that exist in.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Our foreign aid system, seeing as that we don't do authorizations anymore.

[Joel Braunold]

But it was an authorized and appropriated fund for Israeli Palestinian people to people in economic development run by USAID and dfc.

[Unnamed Speaker]

As part of the bonfire of usaid.

[Joel Braunold]

All of those contracts were terminated.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The Trump administration can rebirth MEPA in some way if it would like, whether through the DFC or maybe through State the authorities.

[Joel Braunold]

And the money exists because it was done in the right way, but at.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The moment that's all been cancelled.

[Joel Braunold]

So I mean, tens of millions of dollars leaving the field at a time.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Where dehumanisation is peaking is not ideal deal. Right.

[Joel Braunold]

People who had, you know, four, five, six year contracts, Israeli, you know, Arab and Jewish schools, environmental programs, lots of different things that were being funded, hospitals that were doing heart operations for Palestinians, like all this stuff like just canceled.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Instantaneously multi year grants. But it's one of the millions of.

[Joel Braunold]

Different programs that you can read about. The USAID sort of canceled up. So that's on that. In addition, the US is one of the prime providers of training and security.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Assistance for the Palestinian security forces. The PASF through the United States, the.

[Joel Braunold]

Uss, the United States Security Coordinator, which actually technically reports directly to the Secretary.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Of State as a three star who sits in Jerusalem. So that money was frozen. I don't know if it was terminated.

[Joel Braunold]

It's a State Department grant rather than usaid.

[Unnamed Speaker]

But I think like everything, it was frozen. I don't think it was targeted to.

[Joel Braunold]

Be frozen and it might be switched back on.

[Unnamed Speaker]

There are other countries to contribute.

[Joel Braunold]

So the last I checked, I think.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The money is flowing through other countries.

[Joel Braunold]

While the US works out if it.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Wants to turn it on or doesn't. The U.S. traditionally Congress's main way of influencing administration decisions on Israel.

[Joel Braunold]

Palestine has traditionally been through restricting the ability of an administration to deal with.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The Palestinians, whether that's diplomatically or through appropriations.

[Joel Braunold]

So the fact that there are no appropriations going because everything's been suspended a whole, you know, I don't, you know, Congress doesn't really have a role to play in that. I mean, even should the Taylor Force.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Act be satisfied, there are still legal impediments for the US Ever giving money. Even if it shows due to the.

[Joel Braunold]

PA and even if the US wanted to provide funding for the reconstruction of Gaza, I don't see President Trump going for that.

[Unnamed Speaker]

I mean, a commercial deal maybe, but.

[Joel Braunold]

Nothing in terms of a grant based.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Approach, maybe something or small if it's leveraged.

[Joel Braunold]

You know, there are dozens of laws and I think I made this point online how an administration can go back to funding ESF support in the west.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Bank and Gaza, giving the vetting requirements.

[Joel Braunold]

And there's no one left to do.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Any of those vetting requirements.

[Joel Braunold]

I don't see how, even if you switch it back on without hiring people to do the congressional vetting, the partner vetting systems, I don't see how you can do it. It's extremely vetted and audited money and everything else in there.

[Unnamed Speaker]

So those have been sort of the impacts of sort of the aid cutoff.

[Joel Braunold]

In terms of the weapons work and the NSM.

[Unnamed Speaker]

NSM 20 was a classic example, as you said, of hypothetical threats.

[Joel Braunold]

Right. There was a huge hullabaloo.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Should the Secretary, you know, say sign.

[Joel Braunold]

That they're in line with IHL or.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Are they not in line with ihl? And in the end he signed it. So you, you took all the political.

[Joel Braunold]

Hits for no policy outcome whatsoever. Right.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And so the Trump administration just said.

[Joel Braunold]

Well, we're getting rid of NSM 20.

[Unnamed Speaker]

NSM 20 was standing law anyway.

[Joel Braunold]

So technically to participate in Export Control act stuff anyway, they need to be following international humanitarian law and enabling U.S.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Assistance to go in.

[Joel Braunold]

And it's at the say so of.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The Secretary of State. So the Secretary could just say they're compliant, which is basically what he's doing with the emergency declarations.

[Joel Braunold]

I think the, the last tranche that was this week or at the end of last week was for 2026 and 2027 in terms of the smart bombs, the 2000 pound bombs and the D9s. So this is like ongoing armaments and.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Other parts that are supposed to go.

[Joel Braunold]

There, but it's supposed to demonstrate to the Israelis that, you know, we are the most pro Israel government ever.

[Unnamed Speaker]

And again, I think I mentioned on.

[Joel Braunold]

A previous pod, a lot of this is, look how pro Israel we are. Look at all this stuff. Stop the war in Gaza.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Right?

[Joel Braunold]

Again, I'm not going to force you.

[Unnamed Speaker]

To stop the war in Gaza. If you want to go, go. Right.

[Joel Braunold]

But we want you to prioritize hostage reliefs and get them out. So it's sort of like always demonstrating.

[Unnamed Speaker]

We're not going to push the Netanyahu.

[Joel Braunold]

Anywhere they don't want to go.

[Unnamed Speaker]

We're just, that's not the game. And we're also not going to suggest.

[Joel Braunold]

Stuff from D.C. if you guys come up with ideas that you think are great, cool, we're for it and tell us what you need from us and.

[Unnamed Speaker]

We'Ll, we'll decide if it's in our interest.

[Joel Braunold]

But we're not in the game of, you know, finding bridging proposals and sort of running around after you and forcing you into things we want there to be. I am the president of peace. I want there to be peace. I want there to be good lives for everyone, all the other things. And that, that's the driving force. And by the way, we're not, you know, they're our ally if they want to spend their money to buy this stuff.

[Unnamed Speaker]

I think that their money question is going to be very interesting.

[Joel Braunold]

Scott, when it comes to the MoU.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Are we really going to be giving $38 billion as a grant to anyone.

[Joel Braunold]

Ever again or will it be a loan? I personally think it will be a loan. And then what happens if a different.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Administration calls it due?

[Joel Braunold]

It goes back to the dependency question. I think one of the most interesting things when you look at the US.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Is two sided when it comes to the Trump administration.

[Joel Braunold]

You know, you don't need to be.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Ukrainian to say this. Being very dependent on the US when.

[Joel Braunold]

You'Ve got a president who can change.

[Unnamed Speaker]

His mind on things is difficult. Even if you think you're in the belly and the heart. What happens if one day you're not? I mean, you need to consider these outcomes.

[Joel Braunold]

So upping your dependency during this period.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Is complicated because what will it cost? And on the flip side, according to the latest Gallup poll, support for Israel amongst Democrats is down to 33%. Right.

[Joel Braunold]

It's just fallen like a stone. So there will be one day when.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Democrats are in charge again. And if you are doing long term things it requires over multiple administrations, what does it look like when the pendulum.

[Joel Braunold]

Swings back the other way? And you know, if you've been so associated with President Trump, like it or lowther, then you know the other party.

[Unnamed Speaker]

In power is going to have to deal with it. So again, is now the time to up your dependency, whether it's about the short term or the medium, long term is a real question on all of your questions of how you do this. And it seems to me when we.

[Joel Braunold]

Look across the entire spectrum, from the ceasefire to the west bank and everything.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Else, it seems constantly the Israelis are waiting for Wyckoff.

[Joel Braunold]

I mean, one of the points about.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Zionism is that you make decisions by yourself and for yourself. But the inability for this coalition to deal with the fundamental problem set right, which is what do you do with Gaza?

[Joel Braunold]

And a post war reality, the pieces don't change just because the administration has changed in Washington. Right.

[Unnamed Speaker]

It is still a hard problem. If you push all the Palestinians into.

[Joel Braunold]

Egypt and then you get attacks from.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Egypt, what, you're suddenly in a shooting war with Egypt? If it destabilizes Jordan and Jordan collapses.

[Joel Braunold]

That'S better for your security or is that worse for your security? Like, you know, if you're going to go full Kahanist and just, you know, disperse the population, there are consequences to.

[Unnamed Speaker]

That down the road, outside of the.

[Joel Braunold]

Moral horror show of what that is as well as the international legal requirements, what that is not talking voluntary, whether you can have voluntary in a war zone notwithstanding.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Right. These are the real questions now. These aren't thought experiments.

[Joel Braunold]

If you're going to talk about it.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Talk about it and own the consequences. If you destabilize Egypt and Jordan, then what? What does that do to your security.

[Joel Braunold]

Your security envelope and everything else, These.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Are the hard questions.

[Joel Braunold]

And at the moment, the coalition just.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Hiding behind the administration saying, we'll do the Trump vision.

[Joel Braunold]

What does that mean? Like, you know, there is no, there is a we'll take over Gaza. Okay, but what's the steps? If you assume that's real, what's the steps from here to here?

[Unnamed Speaker]

The US said we're not giving troops.

[Joel Braunold]

And we're not giving money to do it.

[Unnamed Speaker]

So who is?

[Joel Braunold]

Because the region's not going to pay for that.

[Unnamed Speaker]

So the Israeli taxpayers paying for that, the Israeli army's doing it and then.

[Joel Braunold]

The taxpayers paying for that.

[Unnamed Speaker]

You know, be serious about this.

[Joel Braunold]

I mean, you might disagree with Yael.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Lapid's plan for Egypt and the Egyptians have rejected it.

[Joel Braunold]

But he tried to enter a serious.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Proposition into that space. And even he at the end said eventually the PA is going to have to come back once they've reformed.

[Joel Braunold]

Mark Dubaritz was very dubious about this.

[Unnamed Speaker]

He's apologized for his support for the two state solution.

[Joel Braunold]

But the problem set doesn't just change.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Because you think that the Current solutions have all gone.

[Joel Braunold]

Okay, they've all gone.

[Unnamed Speaker]

So come up with something new.

[Joel Braunold]

Okay, so you want voluntary transfer from Gaza, So let's assume 800,000 people leave.

[Unnamed Speaker]

There's still a million people.

[Joel Braunold]

What are you going to do?

[Unnamed Speaker]

Each of these require a serious conversation on this.

[Joel Braunold]

And I think that at the moment.

[Unnamed Speaker]

There'S been an avoidance of that with the hope that Trump will fix it with sort of a big red button.

[Joel Braunold]

I think what we've seen is that.

[Unnamed Speaker]

DC Won't push Israel to do anything.

[Joel Braunold]

They don't want to do.

[Unnamed Speaker]

But I don't see them coming to the rescue either, using their own resources. And so that's sort of the amalgamation.

[Joel Braunold]

Of, of what's going to happen next.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Where we're all sort of waiting and seeing and the Israelis can't even decide to open the gates of hell by.

[Joel Braunold]

Themselves as the ceasefire ended, without checking with Mr. Witkoff first.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Like that seems to be in contradiction with other parts.

[Joel Braunold]

So whether it's all behind the scenes and this is the amazing work from.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The Trump administration, restraining the parties, whatever it is, it seems at this point.

[Joel Braunold]

Everyone, at least on Gaza, is waiting for Mr. Wyckoff. There hasn't been decisions made on the West Bank.

[Unnamed Speaker]

The Arab plan is coming out tomorrow.

[Joel Braunold]

They're going to have to try and.

[Unnamed Speaker]

Work out what this Rubik's Cube plays. But if no one puts something into the middle, whoever puts the thing into the middle will own the pen. And then you'll edit that plan. And at the moment, the only one that seemingly is putting something into the middle are the Arab states.

[Joel Braunold]

And so that's going to be the pen of which things will be edited with.

[Scott R. Anderson]

That gives us a ton to look out for in the weeks and months to come on a lot of fronts that are very fast moving before the moment. We are out of time. Joel Braunold, thank you for joining us once again here on the Lawfare Podcast.

[Joel Braunold]

Thanks for having me.

[Lawfare Podcast Team]

The Lawfare Podcast is produced in cooperation.

[Scott R. Anderson]

With the Brookings Institution.

[Lawfare Podcast Team]

You can get an ad free version of this and other Lawfare podcasts by becoming a Lawfare material supporter at our website, lawfairmedia.org support. You'll also get access to special events and other content available only to our supporters. Please rate and review us wherever you get your podcasts and look out for other podcasts including Rational Security, Allies, the Aftermath, and Escalation, our latest Lawfare Presents podcast series about the war in Ukraine. In addition, check out our written [e-mail] the podcast is edited by Jen Patchett. Our theme song is from Alibi Music. As always, thank you for listening.

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