Lawfare Daily: The U.S. Bombing of Yemen and the Houthi Response

Summary

The Lawfare Podcast: The U.S. Bombing of Yemen and the Houthi Response

Release Date: March 21, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of The Lawfare Podcast, Daniel Byman, Foreign Policy Editor at Lawfare, engages in a comprehensive discussion with Gregory Johnson, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, D.C., and a leading expert on Yemen. The conversation centers on the recent escalation of U.S. military actions in Yemen, specifically the bombing campaigns against the Houthi movement, and examines the Houthis' strategic responses amidst a complex geopolitical landscape.

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Overview of Recent U.S. Bombing Campaigns

The podcast begins with an exploration of the United States' renewed military efforts in Yemen. Gregory Johnson provides context on the Trump administration's designation of the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization in January [02:57]. This move reinstated the designation initially made during Trump's first term and was later reversed by the Biden administration. Johnson explains that since October 2023, following Hamas's attack on Israel and Gaza, the Houthis have intensified their strikes on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, targeting both commercial and U.S. naval vessels.

Notable Quote:

"President Trump in a post on Truth Social said the Houthis should expect complete annihilation." [02:57]

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Background on the Houthi Conflict

The discussion delves into the origins and resilience of the Houthi movement. Johnson contrasts the Biden administration's limited airstrikes, which focused on missile launchers and weapons storage, with the Trump administration's broader and more extensive bombing strategy aimed at debilitating the Houthis' operational capabilities [05:06]. Despite years of sustained airstrikes from various international actors, the Houthis have demonstrated remarkable endurance, maintaining and even expanding their influence in northern Yemen.

Notable Quote:

"The Houthis have been down this road before and they've managed to survive and even thrive despite massive airstrikes." [06:00]

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U.S. Policy Options and Strategic Challenges

Johnson outlines five primary options the U.S. has considered in addressing the Houthi threat:

1. Defend Only: Patrolling the Red Sea to intercept Houthi attacks, a strategy employed by the Biden administration from November 2023 to January 2024 [07:47].
2. Limited Military Strikes: Targeting specific Houthi capabilities to deter future attacks, which proved insufficient [08:20].
3. Extensive Military Strikes: A broader bombing campaign to degrade and deter the Houthis, as initiated by the Trump administration [09:00].
4. Ground Intervention: Potentially involving support for the anti-Houthi coalition on the ground, though fraught with challenges and ethical concerns [09:30].
5. Targeting Iranian Support: Shifting focus to dismantling Iranian assistance to the Houthis, recognizing the group's ties to Iran [10:15].

Notable Quote:

"If the US is clear minded about its goal that the Houthis have to stop this, then that requires a decisive military defeat of this organization, which is going to be very, very difficult." [02:20]

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Houthi Strategy and Resilience

The Houthis' strategic approach involves not only military engagements but also leveraging domestic support by aligning themselves with popular causes, such as the Palestinian issue. Johnson explains that by framing their struggle within the broader regional tensions, the Houthis enhance their legitimacy and support within Yemen, thereby increasing their resilience against sustained military pressure [14:06].

Notable Quote:

"By wrapping themselves basically in the Palestinian flag, the Houthis make themselves more palatable to a broader Yemeni audience than they would otherwise." [28:15]

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Lessons from Saudi and UAE Intervention

Reflecting on the decade-long Saudi and UAE military intervention in Yemen, Johnson highlights the limitations of airpower alone in achieving political and military objectives. The prolonged conflict underscores the necessity of comprehensive strategies that go beyond bombing campaigns to include political reconciliation and sustainable economic support [20:03].

Notable Quote:

"Saudi Arabia is counseling the United States. We know you want to go in and strike the Houthis, but be careful because this thing can go on much longer than you than you think it might." [20:03]

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Future Prospects and Recommendations

The conversation concludes with a critical assessment of the U.S. strategy in Yemen. Johnson emphasizes the stark choices facing the U.S.: either recalibrate its objectives, potentially accepting a continued Houthi threat, or commit to a more robust and possibly protracted military and political engagement to decisively defeat the Houthis [23:40]. He warns that without significant policy shifts, the Houthis may persist in disrupting regional stability and international shipping routes.

Notable Quote:

"Airstrikes alone are not going to be sufficient. You’re going to need some sort of a ground component, whether US forces or forces that we've talked about before." [23:40]

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Conclusion

This episode provides an in-depth analysis of the complexities surrounding the U.S. military involvement in Yemen and the resilient response of the Houthi movement. Through expert insights, it elucidates the strategic challenges and underscores the need for a nuanced and comprehensive approach to achieve lasting peace and stability in the region.

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Additional Resources

For more insights and updates on national security, law, and policy, visit www.lawfareblog.com.

Transcript

[Podcast Host]

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[Ryan]

For the Houthis while the US is more capable than the Saudi and the Emirati Air Force and is able probably to inflict more damage, the Houthis have been down this road before and they've managed to survive and even thrive despite massive airstrikes.

[Daniel Byman]

It's the Lawfare Podcast. I'm Daniel Byman, the Foreign Policy Editor of Lawfare and I'm here with Gregory Johnson. Greg, who is a non resident fellow at the Arab Gulf State institute in Washington, D.C. and one of the country's leading experts on Yemen.

[Ryan]

The US is wary about yet one more open ended conflict in the Middle East. But if the US is clear minded about its goal that the Houthis have to stop this, then that requires a decisive military defeat of this organization, which is going to be very, very difficult.

[Daniel Byman]

Today we're going to talk about the US Bombing of Yemen and how the Houthis in Yemen are reacting. Gregory, I just wanted to start out with a very basic question. On Saturday night, the United States bombed Yemen Why did it do so? Can you give us an overview of what's been going on?

[Ryan]

Yeah, absolutely. So when the Trump administration came into power in January, one of the first things that President Trump did was to designate the Houthis. This is the group that controls large portions of north and western in Yemen, he designated them as a foreign terrorist organization, which was a designation that the Trump administration had made in its first term right as it was leaving, leaving office. The Biden administration later reversed that policy. And so Trump, Trump reinstated that once he did that in January. What the Trump administration has been trying to do basically for the past year and several months following Hamas's attack on, on Israel in Gaza In October of 2023, the Houthis have carried out a number of strikes on commercial shipping in the, in the Red Sea. And they've been carrying out these strikes targeting a number of ships, including US Naval vessels who are there to, to protect the shipping, shipping lanes. The Biden administration has tried, tried when it was in office, a number of different approaches, including some limited airstrikes. But really by the time the Biden administration left power at the, the end of 2024, early 25, the Houthis were able to basically claim victory in the Red Sea conflict that that had been going on throughout much of 2024. And I think the Trump administration has made clear that there were going to be repercussions for the Houthis. And so what we saw on Saturday was the beginning of a number of much more extensive airstrikes that the US Is undertaking. The, they're ongoing. I think the Secretary of Defense has said that this operation is open ended. And so the Trump administration is basically trying to show the Houthis that they did not win and that the US can basically bring them to heel, deter them from carrying out future attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea while simultaneously degrading their capacity so that they're unable to carry out any of those attacks. And I think today we're recording this on Wednesday, President Trump in a post on Truth Social said, said the Houthis should expect complete annihilation.

[Daniel Byman]

So what did the US Actually bomb?

[Ryan]

Yeah, that's a good question. So they've, they've bombed a number of what they call weapons sites. So any storage facilities that the Houthis have, there's been some factories that have been bombed. I think they've also bombed the houses of some Houthi military leaders. There's been some military leaders that the Houthis have said have died. I think the casualty Toll right now is several dozen somewhere 50, 60. But it's very, very early and obviously the strikes are ongoing, so that number is likely to change. I think the key thing to take away is that while the Biden administration in 2024 largely limited itself to some of the mobile missile launchers, missile sites that the Houthis had, some of the places where they were launching amphibious operations against the United States, as well as weapons storage facilities, the Trump administration has taken a much, much more expansive view and has a much W list. And so they're carrying out strikes across northern Yemen, across Houthi held territories, with the idea of really bending the Houthis to, to the US's will and making sure that the Houthis aren't in a position to carry out these strikes in the future. This, I would just add, is going to be fairly difficult to do because the Houthis have, have been under airstrikes for years now. So the, the war in Yemen, the regional war, and perhaps we can get into this a little bit later with Saudi Arabia and the UAE started a decade ago in 2015, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE carried out extensive airstrikes for a number of years against the Houthis. So for the Houthis, while the US is more capable than the Saudi and the Emirati Air Force and is able probably to inflict more damage, the Houthis have been down this road before and they've managed to survive and even thrive despite, despite massive airstrikes.

[Daniel Byman]

Let me ask for a little more detail on this because to me, this is a really important point. So as you noted, the Biden administration was more restricted in its targeting. And I think the Trump folks would say, perhaps quite reasonably, look, this did not work, that if you want to influence the Houthis, you have to hit much harder. And if I understand your remarks, you're saying given the nature of the civil war, its intensity, this is unlikely to make a significant difference in Houthi decision making. Talk me through why they seem like they would resist this, especially given that Hezbollah, for example, Hamas, eventually did cave to some degree in the face of military pressure.

[Ryan]

Yeah, that's a good question. I think there's two parts. And so the first part that I would lay out is sort of what I see as the broadly speaking, the five major options that the United States has had in Yemen over the past year. I don't think those opt have changed. So I can walk through that. And then I also talk about the Houthi. The reason I think the Houthis have been baiting the United States over the past 14 or 15 months. And why the Houthis really want this war with the United States, and why the Houthis think a direct confrontation and conflict with the United States is in their best interest, their best domestic interest. But on the US Side, I think the US has had five major options. One is sort of a defend only option, that is to patrol the Red Sea and basically shoot down the drones and missiles that the Houthis are firing at commercial shipping. That's what the Biden administration attempted from really November of 2023 up until January of 2024. That was option one, defend only. Option number two is what the Biden administration eventually decided on in January of 2024. And this was limited military strikes. This is strikes intended to sort of degrade Houthi capabilities and deter the Houthis by punishment from carrying out future attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. That didn't really work. That is, the Biden administration, along with the UK at different times, carried out strikes on Houthi. As we talked about Houthi sort of weapon caches and Houthi missile launchers, but wasn't really able to do enough damage that the Houthis were deterred or degraded from carrying out strikes on commercial shipping. So that brings us to option 3, 3, which is much more extensive military strikes. And this is the approach that the Trump administration has decided on and it has begun implementing as of Saturday. And this is carrying out wide ranging massive airstrikes on what remains of Houthi infrastructure, targeting Houthi military leaders, attempting to destroy, really break the Houthis will so that they aren't there moving forward. Option four, which the US has not elected to go down yet, is basically involving itself in the domestic Yemeni civil war, a civil war that goes back really to the Arab Spring and primarily to 2014, when the Houthis were able to take over much of much of northern Yemen. The reason this may be appealing, and we'll get back to this in a second, the reason this may be appealing for the Trump administration is that there's a possibility, and I would say indeed perhaps a likelihood that airstrikes alone are not going to be enough to defeat the Houthis. That is you'll need some sort of a ground component. Now, the US Is not, to the best of my knowledge, even contemplating putting ground troops into Yemen. Saudi Arabia and the Emiratis, who've had troops in Yemen are both actively looking for a way out of the conflict in Yemen, which really only leaves sort of the anti Houthi coalition in Yemen. This is a weird amalgamation of different groups, groups that have fought one another previously who are basically aligned against the Houthis. And so I think the temptation for the Trump administration will be that if these much more extensive airstrikes don't do what the Trump administration wants, and that is if the Houthis are able to survive and continue to carry out retaliatory actions, then it may be very tempting for the Trump administration to start supporting this anti Houthi coalition on the ground as a way of defeating the Houthis. That's option four. Option five, if none of those work is coming to the belief that, look, the Houthis are a problem, but they're basically just an extension of Iran. And really the major problem here is Iranian support. And so instead of dealing with the Houthis, let's just go after Iran directly. President Trump has, has threatened that in, in some of his posts in recent days, warning Iran to cease the smuggling of ballistic missile and other munition components to the Houthis. That, that has been going on now for, for several years. And so those are the five basic options that the US has had. And what you've seen is a, is a slow escalation by the U.S. first, the defend only didn't work. Then limited strikes under the Biden administration didn't work. And now the Trump administration is taking number three, which is much more extensive military strikes against the Houthis. The question, as I mentioned earlier, is what happens if door number three doesn't work? Does that mean that the Trump administration then needs to find a way to put pressure on the ground, bring pressure on the ground to bear on the Houthis? So that's on the US Side for, for the Houthis, I think one of the reasons, and indeed I would say the primary reason that the Houthis have been baiting the United States in over the past year and two or three months is that the war in Yemen, the war between Saudi Arabia and the Emiratis by 2022, was, was really winding down. And so the Houthis basically think of it a little bit like musical chairs. That is, the music was coming to an end, and the Houthis didn't have the chair that they wanted. And in Yemen, Yemen's a very poor country. The exports that Yemen has, even though it doesn't have much, are largely oil and gas. And those oil and gas facilities are located in Ma'arib, which is a province directly east of Houthi. Controlled territory in Shebwa, which is south and east of Ma'arib, and then further out in the east in Hadramout. And one Yemeni analyst who I respect talks about this as the Triangle of Power. And the Houthis know that in order to survive long term in Yemen, they need at least one of these areas that will give them an economic base to continue to survive. So over the past several years, the Houthis have been trying time and time again to move into Madara and to take those oil and gas fields. They have not been successful. But what the Houthis are betting on right now is that a they can survive the airstrikes by the United States and b by being involved in a direct conflict with the US And Israel, they'll gain more domestic support. And that domestic support will translate into being able to take Maude or Chevrolet or maybe even both, which will give them the long term stability and the long term hold on power through that economic base that they really need.

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[Daniel Byman]

Let me ask you to expand on what you you mentioned briefly. You talked about the Saudi and UAE intervention in 2015, but you also noted that there both kind of desperately trying to find their way out. Are there lessons the US can learn from their intervention? And can you talk a little bit about what you think their policies towards Yemen are likely to be going forward?

[Ryan]

Yeah, that's a very good and I think a very interesting question. And the answer is a little there's a degree of irony in it. So if we think back to 2015, this is Mohammed bin Salman is just starting to move up first as defense minister and then as then as crown prince in Saudi Arabia. The Obama administration, which was in power in the White House at the time Saudi Arabia said that it was going to move into Yemen. It didn't want a Hezbollah like group on its southern border. And the Obama administration really cautioned the Saudis in 2015 and said look, we know what you're going to do, we support it, but you need to be very, very careful when you go into Yemen because this thing can go on much longer than you think. And at the time the Saudis estimated that about six weeks of airstrikes would bring the Houthis to their knees and allow the internationally recogn to be re established in Sana'a in the in the capital of Yemen. Fast forward a decade and the Biden administration is contemplating going into Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Now the shoe is on the other foot and Saudi Arabia is counseling the United States. We know you want to go in and strike the Houthis, but be careful because this can last a lot longer than you than you think it might. And so it's been an interesting situation and for the US I think one of the main lessons that that the US can take away from Saudi Arabia and the Emirates attempt to bring the Houthis to. To heel. Is is basically that airstrikes alone and air power alone are likely not going to be sufficient to bring about the goals that you want. Which is, I think, gets us back to sort of the original point. What happens if these strikes, as extensive and as damaging as they are likely to be, what happens if they don't bring about the political goals that the US Wants to see? That is, if the Houthis are still able to present a threat to commercial shipping in the Red Sea? How long does the US Continue to do this before it realizes it needs a ground component? And that's what Saudi Arabia was really reluctant to do. Saudi Arabia did not want to put ground troops into what is a very rugged, mountainous area in northern Yemen for what could be a bloody, potentially guerrilla conflict with. With no clear avenue for success. And I think eventually the United States might be faced with a similar decision to make. I think the most likely option for the United States would be, as we mentioned, sort of allying itself with the anti Houthi coalition. There are a number of, I think, potential dangers in doing so. Primarily, many of these people in the anti Houthi coalition, many of them are guilty of war crimes in a war that's gone on for quite some time. There's really no party in Yemen that has clean hands. Everyone has blood on its hands. And so aligning yourself with one of these groups brings with it a number of potential costs, both reputationally and otherwise. I think also one of the options that the Houthis have for potential retaliation, and the Houthis have threatened this in recent months, is that they could continue not just to attack commercial shipping in the Red Sea, but to fire missiles into Saudi Arabia and attempt to damage Saudi Arabia as well. So basically forcing Saudi to pay the price for US Actions in Yemen, in.

[Daniel Byman]

My view, at least. This has been a pessimistic podcast where you've been very clear about the limits of US Power and the problems with the Houthis and the weaknesses of various Arab neighbors. I realize the Trump administration may not be listening to this podcast, but if officials were and they were open minded on what to do in Yemen, what would you recommend?

[Ryan]

Yeah, that's a great point. And I mean, Yemen is a challenge. There are a number of these challenges where you would like to have a full range of options. Often, though, that's not the case in the real world because of decisions that were made either by previous administrations, by people who are in the White House, by what the US did 10 years ago or six years ago, and that's not a very satisfactory answer, but that's simply the case. So there are, you know, there was a time in which the Houthis were on the verge of extinction. This is a group that has been fighting in Yemen since 2004. They basically been fighting for the past two decades plus almost continually. And there have been times in which their power has waxed and waned, but they've been able to survive. When it comes right now, I think the US has to decide a what it wants. I think the US has decided that it wants a cessation of attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the ability of the Houthis to fire missiles into Israel, into some of US partners, into Saudi Arabia and so forth. If that's what the US wants, then the only way to get that is to destroy the Houthis and that is to drive them out of power. Because if the Houthis are in power, they will continue to do this when they as they have the capabilities, as they've shown. And but that to bring about that goal is going to require a fairly high cost for the US that is if, if you buy the argument that I'm making, airstrikes alone are not going to be sufficient. That's going to require some sort of a ground element, whether US forces or forces that, that we've talked about before. But that's going to take a while and it's going to require U.S. involvement. And I think this is one of the reasons that the Biden administration attempted the limited airstrikes because it did not want to get bogged down everything else that the US has going on in Ukraine, talking about indopacom, it's strategic competition with the prc. The US is wary about yet one more open ended conflict in, in the Middle East East. But if the US is clear minded about its goal that the Houthis have to stop this, then that requires a decisive military defeat of this organization, which is going to be very, very difficult. So the US has two options, I think, which is either A, change your goals, reduce your goals, or B be willing to go in for the long haul and do everything required to decisively and definitively militarily defeat the Houthis, which is at least in my opinion is not going to be particularly EAs and it's not going to be very quick.

[Daniel Byman]

Let's say that the US does reduce its goals. Is it plausible or even likely that I'll say two years from now or several years from now that if things flare up again between Israel and the Palestinians or some other crisis, that we'll also see Houthi attacks against shipping in the Red Sea and elsewhere.

[Ryan]

Yeah, I think as long as they have capabilities. And I think to give the Trump administration credit, the Trump administration is trying to financially cut off the Houthis. So this was part of the foreign terrorist organization that is, it wanted to dry up all the support. And certainly the Houthis have weaponized humanitarian aid for years. They have used humanitarian aid to solicit and recruit child soldiers. They have used it as a carrot to reward their supporters and something to withhold from those who. Who are not supporting them. I think the Trump administration, as well as the Biden administration have both attempted to interdict military shipments that are being smuggled from Iran. But this is very, very hard to do because they're coming across in a different places on sort of Yemen's eastern coast, across the border with Oman, as well as through the Red Sea, coming in very small shipments that are making their way to the Houthis. So there are a number of things that the US Is trying to do outside of just sort of the military strikes. I think the military strikes are obviously the most sort of visible, but it's going to be, again, very hard to do. I think, to your question, in two years, in six months, in 18 months, months, if conflict breaks out between the Palestinians and the Israelis. Once again, I think if the Houthis have the capacity and have the capabilities, they will absolutely continue to strike at commercial shipping in the Red Sea. And one of the reasons is that within Yemen, the Palestinian cause, regardless of political party, regardless of where one is on the ideological or religious spectrum, the Palestinian cause is incredibly popular. And so for the Houthis, they are not a particularly popular group. They're an authoritative that is carrying out a, you know, that arrests its. Its opponents, that mines and destroys the houses of its political opponents. By wrapping themselves basically in the Palestinian flag, the Houthis make themselves more palatable to a broader Yemeni audience than they would otherwise.

[Daniel Byman]

Gregory Johnson, thank you very much for joining us.

[Ryan]

Thanks so much for having me.

[Daniel Byman]

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