The Lawfare Podcast: The U.S. Bombing of Yemen and the Houthi Response
Release Date: March 21, 2025
Introduction
In this episode of The Lawfare Podcast, Daniel Byman, Foreign Policy Editor at Lawfare, engages in a comprehensive discussion with Gregory Johnson, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, D.C., and a leading expert on Yemen. The conversation centers on the recent escalation of U.S. military actions in Yemen, specifically the bombing campaigns against the Houthi movement, and examines the Houthis' strategic responses amidst a complex geopolitical landscape.
Overview of Recent U.S. Bombing Campaigns
The podcast begins with an exploration of the United States' renewed military efforts in Yemen. Gregory Johnson provides context on the Trump administration's designation of the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization in January [02:57]. This move reinstated the designation initially made during Trump's first term and was later reversed by the Biden administration. Johnson explains that since October 2023, following Hamas's attack on Israel and Gaza, the Houthis have intensified their strikes on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, targeting both commercial and U.S. naval vessels.
Notable Quote:
"President Trump in a post on Truth Social said the Houthis should expect complete annihilation." [02:57]
Background on the Houthi Conflict
The discussion delves into the origins and resilience of the Houthi movement. Johnson contrasts the Biden administration's limited airstrikes, which focused on missile launchers and weapons storage, with the Trump administration's broader and more extensive bombing strategy aimed at debilitating the Houthis' operational capabilities [05:06]. Despite years of sustained airstrikes from various international actors, the Houthis have demonstrated remarkable endurance, maintaining and even expanding their influence in northern Yemen.
Notable Quote:
"The Houthis have been down this road before and they've managed to survive and even thrive despite massive airstrikes." [06:00]
U.S. Policy Options and Strategic Challenges
Johnson outlines five primary options the U.S. has considered in addressing the Houthi threat:
- Defend Only: Patrolling the Red Sea to intercept Houthi attacks, a strategy employed by the Biden administration from November 2023 to January 2024 [07:47].
- Limited Military Strikes: Targeting specific Houthi capabilities to deter future attacks, which proved insufficient [08:20].
- Extensive Military Strikes: A broader bombing campaign to degrade and deter the Houthis, as initiated by the Trump administration [09:00].
- Ground Intervention: Potentially involving support for the anti-Houthi coalition on the ground, though fraught with challenges and ethical concerns [09:30].
- Targeting Iranian Support: Shifting focus to dismantling Iranian assistance to the Houthis, recognizing the group's ties to Iran [10:15].
Notable Quote:
"If the US is clear minded about its goal that the Houthis have to stop this, then that requires a decisive military defeat of this organization, which is going to be very, very difficult." [02:20]
Houthi Strategy and Resilience
The Houthis' strategic approach involves not only military engagements but also leveraging domestic support by aligning themselves with popular causes, such as the Palestinian issue. Johnson explains that by framing their struggle within the broader regional tensions, the Houthis enhance their legitimacy and support within Yemen, thereby increasing their resilience against sustained military pressure [14:06].
Notable Quote:
"By wrapping themselves basically in the Palestinian flag, the Houthis make themselves more palatable to a broader Yemeni audience than they would otherwise." [28:15]
Lessons from Saudi and UAE Intervention
Reflecting on the decade-long Saudi and UAE military intervention in Yemen, Johnson highlights the limitations of airpower alone in achieving political and military objectives. The prolonged conflict underscores the necessity of comprehensive strategies that go beyond bombing campaigns to include political reconciliation and sustainable economic support [20:03].
Notable Quote:
"Saudi Arabia is counseling the United States. We know you want to go in and strike the Houthis, but be careful because this thing can go on much longer than you than you think it might." [20:03]
Future Prospects and Recommendations
The conversation concludes with a critical assessment of the U.S. strategy in Yemen. Johnson emphasizes the stark choices facing the U.S.: either recalibrate its objectives, potentially accepting a continued Houthi threat, or commit to a more robust and possibly protracted military and political engagement to decisively defeat the Houthis [23:40]. He warns that without significant policy shifts, the Houthis may persist in disrupting regional stability and international shipping routes.
Notable Quote:
"Airstrikes alone are not going to be sufficient. You’re going to need some sort of a ground component, whether US forces or forces that we've talked about before." [23:40]
Conclusion
This episode provides an in-depth analysis of the complexities surrounding the U.S. military involvement in Yemen and the resilient response of the Houthi movement. Through expert insights, it elucidates the strategic challenges and underscores the need for a nuanced and comprehensive approach to achieve lasting peace and stability in the region.
Additional Resources
For more insights and updates on national security, law, and policy, visit www.lawfareblog.com.