The Lawfare Podcast: Ukraine-Russia Negotiations

Episode: Lawfare Daily: Ukraine-Russia Negotiations with Eric Charamala and Samuel Cherub
Release Date: June 27, 2025
Hosts: Mikhailo Soldatenko, Eric Charamala, Samuel Cherub
Source: Lawfare Blog

1. Introduction and Context

In this episode of The Lawfare Podcast, host Mikhailo Soldatenko engages in a deep dive into the ongoing negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Joined by Eric Charamala, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Samuel Cherub, Senior Political Scientist and Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy at the Trend Corporation, the discussion explores the complexities, motivations, and potential pathways toward a negotiated settlement to the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

2. National Interests and Goals

Russia's Objectives: Mikhailo initiates the discussion by probing the current interests and goals of the Russian leadership, questioning whether these have shifted since the onset of the conflict in 2022.

Eric Charamala's Insights:

"It's usually never just one thing that motivates states to take big decisions about war and peace... what will take it to satisfy Russia enough to get it to stop the war."
(02:23)

Eric emphasizes the multifaceted motivations behind Russia's actions, suggesting that both ideological and strategic factors are at play. He highlights the difficulty in predicting Russia's willingness to compromise without understanding the evolving objectives that may have diverged from the initial reasons for the war.

Samuel Cherub's Perspective:

"There is no real clear answer on this... a mixture of imperial and ideological reasons with a bit of long-standing strategic objectives."
(08:54)

Samuel concurs, adding that Russia's actions are influenced by a blend of imperialistic ambitions, ideological commitments, and strategic goals such as NATO containment and the quest for strategic depth.

3. Ukraine's Aspirations and US Interests

Ukraine's Goals: Mikhailo outlines Ukraine's primary interests: to emerge as a secure, independent, and prosperous democracy, free from Russian influence, with robust security arrangements to prevent future aggression.

Alignment and Divergence with US Interests:

"Here’s another case where divining what is the core American interest versus how the current political leadership interprets it..."
(12:27)

Eric discusses the alignment and discrepancies between Ukraine's goals and the current US administration's interests. He contrasts the previous administration's strong support for Ukraine's defense with the current administration's deprioritization, highlighting internal disagreements within the US political landscape regarding the extent of support for Ukraine.

4. European Perspectives on the Conflict

Strategic Shift in Europe: Mikhailo observes a significant strategic shift in Europe, where Ukraine's fate is becoming central to European security. Frontline states like Poland have increased their military and diplomatic support for Ukraine, balancing Ukraine's sovereignty with domestic priorities.

5. Possibility of a Negotiated Settlement

Mutual Stalemate and Ripeness: Mikhailo references President Trump's analogy of Ukraine and Russia as "children on the playground," suggesting that both parties need to be ready to negotiate. He inquires whether a mutually hurting stalemate or mutual exhaustion could pave the way for peace talks.

Eric Charamala's Analysis:

"The lack of a mutual hurting stalemate shouldn't be a reason not to try to get some sort of end to the war."
(21:10)

Eric critiques the concept of mutually hurting stalemate, arguing that while Russian optimism hampers negotiations, it shouldn't deter efforts to seek an end to the conflict.

Samuel Cherub on Strategic Neutralization:

"Through a rigorous and systematic application of force and a management of resources... achieve some sort of slightly more stable but certainly lower level of hostilities."
(25:55)

Samuel introduces the idea of strategic neutralization, where sustained pressure and resource management could reduce hostilities, though recognizing the challenges in achieving a comprehensive ceasefire.

6. Security Guarantees and NATO Neutrality

Debate on Ukraine's NATO Membership: Mikhailo raises questions about the viability of security guarantees for Ukraine, whether through NATO membership or alternative arrangements.

Eric Charamala's View:

"There are other kinds of guarantees... like the 1975 US Israel MOU."
(52:45)

Eric suggests exploring security guarantees outside formal NATO membership, citing historical examples like the US-Israel Memorandum of Understanding as potential models for ensuring Ukraine's security without full alliance integration.

Samuel Cherub on NATO Commitments:

"It's not a credible commitment for the US to just say we don't think Ukrainian membership in NATO is likely..."
(46:09)

Samuel counters that unilateral commitments against Ukraine's NATO aspirations are not credible, given long-standing alliance commitments and Ukraine's constitutional aspirations for NATO membership.

7. Russian Demands and Negotiation Obstacles

Territorial and Cultural Demands: Mikhailo discusses Russia's demands for international recognition of Crimea and other regions, alongside cultural and linguistic concessions.

Eric Charamala's Insights:

"It's patently absurd in this context to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from areas that Russia has very little chance of retaking militarily..."
(59:38)

Eric argues that Russia's territorial demands are unrealistic and serve as non-negotiable "poison pills" that derail meaningful negotiations. He also touches on cultural and language issues as persistent Russian demands that complicate settlement talks.

Challenges of Concessions: Samuel Cherub emphasizes the complexities of reconciling Russian demands with Ukraine's sovereignty, suggesting that concessions without securing Ukraine's ability to defend itself undermine long-term peace.

8. Accountability for Aggression

Importance of Holding Russia Accountable: Mikhailo questions whether it's crucial to ensure that Russia bears the costs of its aggression, both legally and historically.

Eric Charamala's Position:

"Accountability is extremely important... aggression like this does entail significant costs for Russia."
(63:32)

Eric underscores the necessity of holding Russia accountable to deter future aggression. He differentiates between legal accountability, which is unlikely to be part of negotiations, and broader state-level accountability that ensures Russia pays substantial costs for its actions.

Samuel Cherub on Historical Reckoning: Samuel adds that while legal prosecutions of leaders like Putin may be improbable, maintaining economic and diplomatic pressures serves as a form of accountability that deters future conflicts.

9. Conclusion and Future Pathways

The episode concludes with reflections on the intricate balance between pursuing negotiated settlements and enforcing accountability. Both Eric and Samuel stress the importance of innovative diplomatic solutions paired with sustained pressure to shift Russia's strategic calculations. They acknowledge the significant challenges ahead but emphasize the necessity of continuing efforts to achieve a durable and fair resolution to the conflict.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Eric Charamala on Russia's Motivations:

  "It's usually never just one thing that motivates states to take big decisions about war and peace."
  (02:23)

• Samuel Cherub on Strategic Neutralization:

  "Through a rigorous and systematic application of force and a management of resources, you can start to replicate that across different domains."
  (25:55)

• Mikhailo Soldatenko on Negotiation Preparedness:

  "President Trump said that Ukraine and Russia are like children on the playground and you need to let them fight before they will be ready to settle."
  (20:17)

• Eric Charamala on Accountability:

  "Making sure that aggression like this does entail significant costs for Russia, I think should be an important priority going forward."
  (66:53)

Key Takeaways

• Complex Motivations: Russia's objectives in the Ukraine conflict are multifaceted, encompassing ideological, imperialistic, and strategic factors.

• Ukraine's Sovereignty: Ukraine aims to solidify its independence and security, free from Russian influence, with aspirations towards NATO membership.

• US and European Dynamics: There is a divergence between US administrations regarding support for Ukraine, while Europe increasingly views Ukraine's fate as central to European security.

• Negotiation Challenges: The possibility of a negotiated settlement is hindered by Russia's uncompromising demands and strategic optimism, necessitating innovative diplomatic approaches.

• Security Guarantees: Alternative security arrangements outside of NATO membership need exploration, though credibility and implementation remain significant challenges.

• Accountability: Ensuring Russia bears the costs of its aggression is crucial for deterring future conflicts, though achieving legal accountability remains unlikely.

This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the podcast discussion, providing listeners with a clear understanding of the nuanced debates surrounding the Ukraine-Russia negotiations, the interplay of national interests, and the prospects for peace and accountability.