The Lawfare Podcast — Lawfare Daily: What Israel's Gaza City Offensive and Airstrikes in Qatar Mean for the Region

Date: September 17, 2025
Panel: Scott R. Anderson (Host), Dan Byman, Joel Braunold, Nathan Sachs

Episode Overview

This episode centers on Israel's renewed military operations in Gaza City, recent Israeli airstrikes in Qatar and elsewhere in the region, and the complex diplomatic, humanitarian, and political ramifications. The conversation, led by host Scott R. Anderson along with regional experts Dan Byman, Joel Braunold, and Nathan Sachs, explores the intersection of Israel's evolving military strategy, the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, domestic politics in Israel, ripple effects across the broader Middle East, and escalating international reactions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Gaza City Offensive: Strategy and Humanitarian Consequences

• Israeli Military Objectives

  • Israel's latest offensive targets Hamas’s resurgence in Gaza City after Israeli troop withdrawals left room for Hamas to regroup.
    Nathan Sachs (04:12):
    "Israel's war aim is the very vague Hamas must be destroyed... you end up with Israeli troops having to displace Hamas. And to do so, this requires a pretty massive troop presence... Israel finds itself again and again having to go into parts of Gaza where it's been before and displace both Hamas but also the population."

• Humanitarian Crisis Escalates

  • Over 350,000 people displaced from Gaza City during renewed conflict (per Times reporting). Aid access remains critically limited; Israel’s new NGO registration process further disrupts humanitarian operations.
  • Formal famine declared; “1.1 million people more internally displaced," significantly straining aid distribution infrastructure.
    Joel Braunold (08:08):
    "You are adding onto already a desperate situation, 1.1 million people more internally displaced. That puts more stress on the very limited aid infrastructure that exists... is this a byproduct of a necessary military maneuver or is this the plan to push Palestinians into unlivable inhabitation...?"

2. Diplomacy and Negotiation Deadlocks

• Pressure Tactics and Guarantees
  • U.S. and Israeli leaders insist on Hamas’s total destruction as a precondition for ending the war. International actors (led by Saudis and French) seek a "political horizon" and guarantees for any possible Hamas exile or disarmament deal.
  • Structural distrust: Hamas sees little incentive to negotiate or surrender, given past Israeli actions and rhetoric.
    Dan Byman (08:08):
    "One of the consequences of Israel's actions and rhetoric is that Hamas has no reason to believe if Israel signs a deal that it will stick to a deal unless it's forced to stick to a deal that it agrees to."

3. Israel’s Domestic Politics: Netanyahu’s Calculus

• Coalition Pressures vs. Public Sentiment
  • The Israeli government faces tension between far-right coalition partners demanding maximalist military solutions, including potential annexation and mass displacement, and broader public sentiment increasingly favoring a deal to release hostages—even if it leaves Hamas weakened but still in Gaza.
  • Netanyahu appears to have opted for coalition preservation and a hardline, escalatory approach, even at significant cost.
    Nathan Sachs (15:39):
    "Netanyahu and his officials and his family have made very clear that they've made a choice... they want to destroy Hamas. If that means the fate of the hostages is in dire, dire danger, so be it."

4. Annexation and the West Bank: A New Fracture?

• Controversy over West Bank Annexation

  • Recent meetings between Israeli and U.S. officials suggest annexation (particularly of the Jordan Valley) is on the table as a possible Israeli response to international recognition of Palestinian statehood—especially from France, Belgium, and regional partners.
    Dan Byman (19:51):
    "The most likely response to French recognition could be annexation of the Jordan Valley, which Israelis will tell you... they would keep control of... for their own security, for Jordanian security. So we'll just annex it and put to bed this mythology that the entire of the West Bank is going to be there."

• Regional and International Risks

  • Potential for a regional diplomatic crisis: UAE and other Abraham Accords partners view annexation as a "red line" that would significantly damage normalization agreements.

5. Escalation Across the Region: Strikes in Qatar, Yemen, and Syria

• Qatar Strike: What Drove Israel?

  • Israeli airstrike on a residential complex in Doha—housing Hamas’s political leadership—sends shockwaves through the region. Limited immediate strategic value, but a powerful disruptive message to ongoing negotiations, the international community, and the Israeli public.
  • Nathan Sachs (30:23):
    "This is an incredibly consequential strike... To me the target was the negotiation, that this was really a way of saying, look, we're always going to take the shot at Hamas people wherever they are. And sure, it derails negotiations. We do not care... an incredibly consequential strike, in my view."

• Yemen: The Houthi Conundrum

  • Two waves of Israeli airstrikes against Houthi targets. The Houthis exploit the conflict for internal legitimacy, and Israeli military action, while symbolically significant, is unlikely to change Houthi calculations.

• Syria: Policy Divergence

  • Israel continues a policy of military action in southern Syria, often against groups hostile to Israel and to support minority Druze populations. U.S. and Gulf allies, by contrast, are working to stabilize Syria, illustrating growing divergence between Israeli and American regional approaches.

6. International Responses: UN Resolutions, Genocide Claims, and Economic Isolation

• UN and Legal Pressure

  • The UN General Assembly, led by France and Saudi Arabia, adopts a resolution laying a framework for two-state solution recognition and condemns both Hamas and Israel’s actions.
  • A UN Commission of Inquiry formally accuses Israel of acts amounting to genocide—escalating international legal and moral criticism against Israel.
  • Dan Byman (56:43):
    "[Netanyahu] basically says it is worth it for us to economically demolish ourselves with tech, which is the most portable industry in the world... This is lit. And he says, I hate this. I don't want to be a nation of orange sellers... But if that's what it takes to survive in this new Middle East, I'll remake it and we'll come out the other side."

• Netanyahu’s Defiant Turn

  • In the wake of unprecedented international pressure, Netanyahu signals a willingness to accept increased economic isolation for Israel—likening the country to a "super Sparta" and warning of a self-reliant, autarkic future if need be.
  • This vision is presented as a matter of national fate, not choice, and as preferable to accommodating international demands for Palestinian statehood.

7. Domestic Constraints: Electoral and Economic Pressure

• Elections as a Check

  • General elections remain the primary domestic constraint; polling shows Netanyahu is unpopular but he's proven politically resilient.
  • Israel's sense of siege and focus on national trauma after October 7th may limit the political impact of international isolation in the short term.
    Nathan Sachs (64:42):
    "I would not underestimate Israel's ability, Israeli's ability to rationalize even enormous international pressure... They're still thinking about the hostages... And so I would not underestimate Israelis sense of siege against them, against themselves, and of unfair treatment, unfair understanding from the world."

• Long-term Risks

  • Loss of trade, investment, and tech position with Europe and Western partners would have serious long-term costs, but may not shift near-term politics.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Humanitarian Situation:
  "The situation is, you're adding onto already a desperate situation, 1.1 million people more internally displaced...And again, the question therefore becomes, is this a byproduct of a necessary military maneuver or is this the plan to push Palestinians into unlivable inhabitation..."
  — Joel Braunold (08:08)

• On the Failure of Deterrence Strategy:
  "One of the big lessons that Israel learned on October 7th... is zero trust in deterrence... There's always a danger that you over learn it. And I think Israel and certainly certain instances, Gaza most notably has certainly over learned it."
  — Nathan Sachs (45:18)

• On Netanyahu’s Worldview:
  "[Netanyahu] hasn't started to campaign yet. I mean, everyone else has. He hasn't. And so, you know, the infamous poison machine, everything else. I think all of this is to say we're in a very, very difficult moment."
  — Dan Byman (69:17)

• On International Isolation:
  "Netanyahu has not promised a garden of roses, as we say. He's promised blood, sweat and tears. And it is Churchill that he is emulating in many, many different ways. And Israelis have heard that promise."
  — Nathan Sachs (64:42)

Key Timestamps

• 04:12 – Nathan Sachs on Israel’s military challenge in Gaza City
• 08:08 – Joel Braunold on humanitarian & political consequences of the offensive
• 15:39 – Nathan Sachs on the hostages vs. destroy Hamas contradiction
• 19:51 – Dan Byman on annexation, the West Bank, and international recognition
• 30:23 – Nathan Sachs on the strategic message of the Qatar airstrike
• 40:08 – Nathan Sachs on Israeli operations in Yemen and Syria
• 45:18 – Nathan Sachs (with Joel Braunold) on Israel’s shifting deterrence doctrine and regional impact
• 56:43 – Dan Byman on UN moves, international economic pressure, and Netanyahu’s isolationist vision
• 64:42 – Nathan Sachs on electoral constraints, domestic perceptions, and international pressure on Israel
• 69:17 – Dan Byman on Netanyahu’s escalatory ladder and Gulf region responses

Tone and Takeaways

This episode is marked by sober, analytical, and occasionally urgent conversation, reflecting the gravity and complexity of events on the ground and in Middle Eastern capitals. The panel draws on deep policy experience and candidly addresses both the limits of military strategies and the mounting humanitarian and diplomatic costs.

Summary for New Listeners:
The situation in Gaza and the broader region is more volatile than ever. Israeli military actions are producing severe humanitarian crises and sparking international backlash, while domestic politics in Israel drives an uncompromising approach. Regional and global actors' efforts for negotiation and recognition are colliding with maximalist policies and a growing sense of mutual distrust. With the UN General Assembly and possible further recognition of Palestinian statehood looming, the cycle of escalation appears set to continue, both on the ground and on the world stage.