The Lawfare Podcast

Lawfare Live: U.S. and Israel Strike Iran

Date: March 1, 2026
Host: Benjamin Wittes
Guests: Ari Tabatabai, Scott R. Anderson, LT. Troy Edwards (Public Service Fellow, former national security prosecutor)

Episode Overview

This special Lawfare Live episode dives into the dramatic events of the weekend—unprecedented U.S. and Israeli military strikes against Iran, including the confirmed death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. The panel, consisting of legal, policy, and national security experts, breaks down the ramifications of this action for Iran, the region, and global politics. They analyze the military, legal, and domestic fallout, explore the Iranian regime's likely next steps, and discuss what "regime change" might actually mean.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Who Was Ali Khamenei and Why His Death Matters (01:25–12:52)

• Khamenei’s Rule & Legacy:
  Ari Tabatabai provides a comprehensive review:

  • Supreme Leader from 1989–2026, viewed as a weaker, less charismatic successor to Khomeini yet institutionalized and consolidated the regime's power.

  • Oversaw the weaponization and pausing of Iran’s nuclear program, harsh international sanctions, and the expansion of the regional proxy network, e.g., Hezbollah.

  • Supported Assad in Syria, with complicity in regional violence and domestic repression, most recently greenlighting the massacre of thousands in protest crackdowns.

    "He really was the person who matured and institutionalized the Islamic Republic over the course of the 1990s and the 2000s... his legacy, I think, he's going to go down as one of the worst figures in the history of the 20th and 21st centuries."
    — Ari Tabatabai, 08:02

• Casualty Scale:
  Recent massacre estimates range from 7,000–32,000 protesters killed.

  "This is somewhere between twice as big and 10 times as big as Tiananmen Square."
  — Benjamin Wittes, 07:53

• Comparisons With Khomeini:
  Khamenei seen as a "calcifying" leader who entrenched the regime, akin to Tim Cook after Steve Jobs at Apple—solidifying but not innovating the system.

  "He's a kind of Tim Cook-like figure within Apple... not as important a scholar as Khomeini, not an originator."
  — Benjamin Wittes, 08:47

2. Rationale and Ramifications of the Strikes (12:52–19:03)

• Why Strike Now?

  • Removal of a toxic, violent leader seen by some as a positive, but experts urge caution due to "more questions than answers."
  • The operation’s ultimate benefit/harm depends on what follows—whether Iran stabilizes under more moderate leadership or radicalizes further.

• Operation Goals and Targets:

  • Aimed at destabilizing or removing hostile leadership, possibly reshaping Iran’s regime (total regime change vs. leadership change).

  • Target set includes military, missile, and command & control facilities, as well as political targets embedded in densely populated areas (Tehran).

    "We are already seeing civilian casualties. There were reports that... Israelis hit a school, killing several dozen children... these are the kinds of things that can happen if combat operations continue."
    — Ari Tabatabai, 15:33

3. Military Targeting and Proliferation Concerns (19:03–26:36)

• Target Rationale:
  LT. Troy Edwards recounts prosecution work mapping Iranian weapons smuggling to proxies and links coastal regions like Chabahar Bay (used for maritime arms transfers) to current strikes.

  "It strikes me as an effort to stop Iran’s counter-proliferation of that weaponry and their ability to respond after these strikes."
  — LT. Troy Edwards, 26:36

• US Strategy Shift:
  From interdiction and criminal prosecution (targeting clandestine arms transfers) to broad military action hitting the IRGC, missile, and drone facilities.

4. Iranian Response and Likely Escalation (26:36–31:09)

• Immediate Reaction:
  Iran has struck at Gulf states, Israel, and U.S. bases, with possible moves to disrupt global oil via the Strait of Hormuz.

  "Iran generally does these things in phases... We've had this conventional phase... the next phase would be assassinations, cyber attacks, and hybrid tactics globally."
  — Ari Tabatabai, 27:23–28:31

• Longer-Term Threats:
  The panel expects further asymmetrical action: assassinations, kidnappings, terrorism, and cyberattacks worldwide.

  "I would expect this to play out for a while. The killing of Qasem Soleimani was in 2020 and Iran is still going after officials involved."
  — Ari Tabatabai, 28:31

• Nuclear Danger:
  With Iran possessing enough highly enriched uranium for multiple warheads, escalation could spur weaponization.

5. International and Domestic Legal Justifications (31:09–43:08)

• International Law:

  • U.S. and Israel claim "self-defense," though the case for anticipatory or preemptive self-defense is dubious by prevailing international standards.

  • Some allies (Australia, Canada) voice support; UK and others are more ambiguous or opposed, not allowing their facilities to be used.

    "It really pushes to the far extreme of the more permissive vision of what an armed attack is... even by the U.S. and Israeli framing, it's pushing it pretty aggressively."
    — Scott R. Anderson, 35:25

• Domestic Law:

  • Executive branch relies on a broad reading of the president’s war powers—operation described as limited, though its scale is unprecedented since Libya.

  • Congress appears likely to challenge the move with a resolution.

    "This is probably the most substantial military action we've seen a president take under this authority since Libya."
    — Scott R. Anderson, 41:30

6. Strategic Objectives: Regime Change or Self-Defense? (44:47–53:22)

• Confusion and Mixed Messaging:

  • U.S. president has cited support for protesters, missile threats, nuclear risk, and even alleged electoral interference as partial rationales.

    "The president has said both... his messaging has been all over the place in terms of what the actual objectives are."
    — Ari Tabatabai, 45:34

• Divergent Israeli-U.S. Objectives:
  Possible misalignment in goals between the U.S. and Israel.

• Historical Parallels:

  • Libya (2011) and Venezuela are compared as interventions which weakened regimes but led to uncertain or negative outcomes.

7. What Does “Regime Change” Really Mean in Iran? (53:22–59:11)

• Potential Futures:

  • Best Case: Emergence of a pro-democracy, pro-Western leader (deemed unlikely in the short term).

  • Probable Case: IRGC or hardline clerics step in, possibly leading to a more radical regime.

  • Risk of Chaos: Iran’s diverse population and history of turbulent transitions make civil strife a real possibility.

    "Transitions of power have been fairly chaotic... Iran's own history shows that."
    — Ari Tabatabai, 56:43

8. Public Sentiment and Iranian Society (59:11–60:55)

• Celebrations of Khamenei’s Death:
  Seen as genuine joy at a tyrant's demise rather than blanket approval of foreign intervention.

  "A lot of people might be very happy to see Khamenei dead. They may want the regime gone. They may not want their country attacked by foreign powers."
  — Ari Tabatabai, 59:43

• Future Attitudes:
  Dependent on evolving civilian casualty numbers, speed of political transition, and the direction of new leadership.

Notable Quotes

• On Khamenei’s Enduring Legacy:
  "His legacy, I think, he's going to go down as one of the worst figures in the history of the 20th and 21st centuries."
  — Ari Tabatabai (08:02)

• On Civilian Casualties:
  "We are already seeing civilian casualties ... these are the kinds of things that can happen if combat operations continue."
  — Ari Tabatabai (15:33)

• On the Legality of the Strikes:
  "It really pushes to the far extreme of the more permissive vision of what an armed attack is ... even by the U.S. and Israeli framing, it's pushing it pretty aggressively."
  — Scott R. Anderson (35:25)

• On Iran’s Response Strategy:
  "Iran generally does these things in phases ... We've had this conventional phase ... the next phase would be assassinations, cyber attacks, and hybrid tactics globally."
  — Ari Tabatabai (27:23–28:31)

• On Possibilities for Regime Change:
  "Iran's own history shows that transitions of power have been fairly chaotic ... There's a non-zero chance of civil war."
  — Ari Tabatabai (56:43)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:25–10:21] – Khamenei’s background, legacy, and comparison with Khomeini
• [12:52–14:45] – Is the strike a good idea? Immediate moral/political questions
• [14:45–18:37] – Objectives of US/Israeli strikes and choice of targets
• [19:03–26:36] – Case study: DoJ prosecutions and the military targeting decision process
• [26:36–31:09] – Iranian response, phases of retaliation, nuclear risk
• [31:09–43:08] – International and domestic legal frameworks: are these strikes lawful?
• [44:47–50:08] – Strategic objectives: Regime change or self-defense?
• [53:22–59:11] – What “regime change” could look like in Iran’s complex context
• [59:11–60:55] – Interpretations of public celebrations after Khamenei's death

Conclusion

This exceptionally timely Lawfare Live episode unpacks the many layers of the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei, and the uncertain, potentially perilous road ahead. The conversation fuses historical context, legal analysis, and policy insight—emphasizing caution, uncertainty, and the unpredictable nature of regime transition in Iran.

Listeners gain a nuanced, sober view of events as they unfold, understanding both the stakes and the risks of one of the Middle East’s greatest policy and security inflection points in years.