The Lawfare Podcast – Rational Security: The “Attacking Iran” Special Edition
Air Date: March 5, 2026
Main Panelists:

• Scott R. Anderson (Host, Lawfare Senior Editor) – A
• Benjamin Wittes (Lawfare Editor in Chief, Host Emeritus) – C
• Daniel Byman (Lawfare Foreign Policy Editor, Georgetown NCS Professor) – B
• Ariane Tabatabai (Lawfare’s Public Service Fellow, Former Government Iran Expert) – D

Episode Overview

This special edition of Rational Security is dedicated to breaking down one of the most consequential events of the Trump administration's second term: the U.S. military operation against Iran, which resulted in the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader. The panel unpacks the historic decision to attempt regime change in Iran, explores the regional and international response, and considers what the future holds for Iran and the wider Middle East.

Episode Structure & Key Topics

• [05:05] - Opening: Why devote a full episode to this event?

  • “[...] This past weekend President Trump decided to initiate what appears to be a major, major military operation against Iran, opening with an attack that killed the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran. Making this an effort at, or at least something that had the effect of regime change, a major, major region, something people have been talking about for a very long time that has obvious ramifications in lots of dimensions.” – Scott [05:08]

• Three Main Topics / Lenses:

  1. [07:14] Isn't it Ironic? - Trump’s shift to military action and regime change.
  2. [07:54] Bibi’s Big Adventure – Israel’s motivations and broader regional response.
  3. [08:40] MIGA (Make Iran Great Again? Or “Mowing the Grass” Again?) – Forecasting Iran’s political future post-Ayatollah.

1. What Drove Trump’s Regime Change Decision?

[11:35] – [17:36]

Ari Tabatabai:

• Sees the second Trump term as a logical escalation of “maximum pressure” policies from the first.
• Earlier Trump policy included withdrawal from the JCPOA and “maximum pressure,” with steps toward open military conflict.
• The administration became bolder after successful, “low cost” uses of force in Venezuela and during Operation Midnight Hammer.
• “[...] There is this view that the operational success of Venezuela, of the Caribbean, and the relative low cost of Midnight Hammer and its operational success have led the President to think that, or at least to kind of view the use of force as something that can be done on the administration's terms, that can be done in a fairly low cost way politically.” [13:25]

Daniel Byman:

• This operation is a much bigger risk and escalation compared to Trump’s previous “one day ops.”
• Trump’s approach is not strategic, but impulsive—encouraged by perceived past operational success and a lack of meaningful setbacks.
• “In the past, these kind of very triumphant military operations he feels made him look good. His advisors [...] are actually encouraging him with their own agendas in different ways.” [19:21]

Benjamin Wittes:

• Trump enjoys the visceral power of military action, feeling vindicated every time generals’ caution proves unwarranted (in his view).
• “You learn from that that the generals are full of shit and they're cautious in a way that is just unmanly, frankly. [...] So you get more and more confident about the [...] 'let's just go blow it up' solution.” [21:02]
• Israel-envy: Israeli successes inspire Trump.
• Institutional brakes (e.g., Mattis, former Joint Chiefs) are gone; the current Trump administration is more unrestrained.

Scott:

• Iran is weaker now due to Israeli operations against proxies, Syrian regime collapse, Gaza/Hamas conflict, undermining Iran’s capacity to respond.

2. The Regional Dynamics – Israel, Gulf States, and US Allies

[34:22] – [62:40]

Gulf States’ Posture & Influence

Ari Tabatabai:

• Gulf States privately supported U.S./Israeli action but publicly advocated restraint due to Iran’s history of interference and proxies.
• “In private, it's been slightly different. So there is that piece that I fully buy the reporting that the Saudis and MbS specifically have been kind of advocating for more forceful action with the President.” [34:42]
• Regional military/intelligence integration has deepened.

Israel’s Role & Bibi Netanyahu’s Motives

Ben Wittes:

• Bibi’s decades-long focus: “He has always been [...] obsessed with the Iranian nuclear program, and he traces most big problems back to Iran. He's quite consistent about it.” [37:45]
• Systematic targeting: first proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria), then air defenses, now the regime.
• Domestic dimension: Bibi attempts to redeem himself after October 7 by delivering “historic” blows to Israel’s enemies.
• “You never lose by being on offense against Iran and its proxies.” [38:53]

Strategic Vision? Or Tactical Instincts?

Scott: Raises the question of whether Israel has a real strategic plan or is executing a series of tactical "mowing the grass" operations. [51:10]

Byman & Wittes:

• Israelis skeptical of regime change bringing a better alternative; prefer regional adversaries to be weak and disorganized rather than risk facing stronger, stable, or competent anti-Israel governments.
  • “Israel [...] has an assumption, which is everyone in the region hates us. [...] So when in doubt, the weakening seems to be the Israeli approach.” – Byman [54:17]
• Israel's posture: strengthen ties with Sunni Arab states, maintain hostility towards Iran and its proxies, and deprioritize the Palestinian question. [56:40 – 57:31]

3. The International Layer: Europe, NATO, and China

[59:30] – [67:54]

European Caution:

• G7 supported initial U.S./Israeli strikes but hasn’t embraced current escalation.
• France, Germany, UK urging de-escalation; legal concerns a factor (esp. use of bases for strikes).
• “You really have not seen many states step up and back what the United States and Israel are doing.” – Scott [60:08]

Ari Tabatabai:

• Allies balancing NATO rupture post-Greenland crisis, domestic politics, and Iran’s nuclear threat.
• “There are concerns I think of what the Trump administration might do and how it all plays into the intra NATO dynamics […]” [63:44]
• China sees a strategic benefit: the U.S. gets bogged down in the Middle East, possibly opening space for China in Asia/Pacific.

4. The Future for Iran and the Risks of Destabilization

[67:54] – [78:55]

Dan Byman:

• High risk of Iranian terrorism in U.S., Europe, and elsewhere—a “spy vs. spy” struggle will ensue.
• “Right now this is an existential threat. The United States and Israel are openly saying we want to fight and bomb until the fall of the regime and calling on people to rise up so that disincentive [against terrorism] is removed.” [69:55]
• The possibility for Iran to strike back, even if weakened, remains real and dangerous.

Ari Tabatabai:

• Uncertainty about Iran’s post-Khamenei leadership:
  • Interim council in charge, potential for Ayatollah’s son (not a reformer) to succeed.
  • Protest movement is spontaneous, not clearly organized or ready to take over.
  • Fundamental architecture (IRGC, security services) still functioning – real regime collapse is far from assured.
  • “As long as those kind of power centers remain in place, I think we're kind of looking at, you know, kind of moving the musical chairs [...] rather than more fundamental change […]” [78:06]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s psychology:
  “This is fun and he's got this military with these really powerful tools…you say, do it anyway, and they go and do it and it works. And you learn from that that the generals are full of shit…and that your instincts, which are, let's blow these things up. Why do we have all these cool toys if we can't use them? Actually is right.”
  — Benjamin Wittes [21:02]

• On Israeli operational focus:
  “There’s a line I heard in Israel which is we only talk about strategy in English.” – Daniel Byman [53:35]

• On the legal shaky ground of the operation:
  “It’s really wild because that's basically saying the president can have huge globally consequential actions that he can do on his own authority as long as he uses those technical capabilities that don't put as many US Soldiers at risk. It's potentially hugely destabilizing.” – Scott Anderson [32:10]

• On prospects for change in Iran:
  “What is clear though, is that at least so far, the kind of fundamental architecture of the system is intact. The individuals are not. But you still have the IRGC as kind of the core security system within the regime that is operating […]” — Ari Tabatabai [78:06]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [05:05] – Episode framing, the historical moment
• [07:14] – Three angles for analysis explained
• [11:35] – What changed in Trump’s Iran policy?
• [19:55] – How Trump’s psychology and experience shaped the decision
• [24:45] – Strategic context: Iran’s weakness through 2025-2026
• [31:25] – Legal boundaries and precedents questioned
• [34:22] – Gulf States’ posture: public caution, private support
• [37:34] – Bibi Netanyahu’s motivations, Israeli strategic continuity
• [51:10] – Does Israel really have a strategy?
• [59:30] – European and international response
• [67:54] – Iranian ability to retaliate; threat landscape
• [73:29] – Who’s likely to rule Iran post-regime change attempt?
• [78:55] – Conclusion: Iran’s future still in flux

Additional Recommendations & Object Lessons

[79:27] – End

Each panelist ends with a personal recommendation; highlights include coding tools for tracking legal cases, wargame simulations about Iran, classic Middle East studies books, and contemporary games for escapism.

• Next War Iran (wargame) recommended by Daniel Byman
• The Mantle of the Prophet by Roy Mottahedeh and All Fall Down: America’s Tragic Encounter with Iran by Gary Sick recommended by Scott Anderson
• Persepolis (graphic novel/movie) recommended by Ari Tabatabai

Summary Takeaways

• Trump’s Iran policy marks a historic and risky escalation driven by personal confidence, fading institutional restraints, and an appetite for demonstrable “success.”
• Israel, under Netanyahu, is finally pursuing regime decapitation in Iran—a decades-old obsession—enabled by U.S. support and wider regional coordination.
• Regional and global reactions are cautious: Gulf states quietly supportive, Europeans and most global powers wary, legal justification highly debatable.
• Fallout for global security: major terrorism risk from Iran, Iranian regime architecture mostly intact, uncertain prospects for genuine regime change or improvement.
• The road ahead for Iran and the region is highly volatile, with the situation potentially deteriorating into chaos, persistent instability, or simply a changing of the guard within the existing system.

For listeners pressed for time:

• The Legal and Policy debate: [31:25-34:22]
• Israel/Gulf/Trump psychology: [17:36-29:42, 34:22-38:56]
• Future of Iran/political aftermath: [73:29-78:55]

“If you had said to me on October 5th, there's going to be a major attack on Israel in two days, it's going to be devastating. And Israel is going to respond by going after, you know, in sequence, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, the Syrian regime is going to fall in there and then they're going to go after Iran. Plausible or implausible? Would have said totally plausible.”
— Benjamin Wittes [44:10]