Podcast
The Market Call
Hosted by Progressive Equity Research · EN
A periodic summary of major macro events, market themes and selected UK company-specific news.
13episodes
Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
Week Ending 24/04/26 - Will irrational exuberance collide with Middle East reality?
4w ago00:14:57Tap to summarizeThis week Jeremy & Gareth comment on the Middle East situation, its potentially huge and long-term impact on supply chains but also the ability of humanity to reinvent and rearrange very quickly.Jeremy suggests that the equity market's buoyancy is partly a short-squeeze on Mag 7 as AI spend continues to reach new frenzied highs, and asset managers want "safe" US Dollar assets. The US may have started this war, but their assets and their energy are largely safe from its immediate effects.Meanwhile Kevin Warsh is suggesting a new - and more nuanced - approach to Central Bank structures...lower interest rates for sure, but with a dose of academic justification. Playing to the crowd, perhaps...persuading the bond markets, hard to tell.
Transcribe →Week Ending 10/04/2026 - The world's "cardiac event" and its implications
Apr 1000:14:58Tap to summarizeThis week, Jeremy and Gareth discuss the only thing that matters - the "cardiac event" threatening the world's circulatory system for its oil lifeblood.Echoes of Suez reverberate - and the "petrodollar" arrangements of arms sales and protection look thoroughly undermined. Jeremy points out that this feels like "hypernormalisation"....everyone knows that the world order is changing, but is afraid to say it out loud. China may be the silent victor, but Japan's financial position and/or the bond markets could pose the real risk to markets.Investors might do well to look to real-world assets, especially if energy exploration is about to become important once again.Latin America could benefit from a more hinterland-focussed USA. Good luck to the soon-incoming Fed Chairman....what a time to be Kevin Warsh.
Transcribe →Week Ending 20/3/2026 - It takes two to TACO
Mar 2000:14:53Tap to summarizeJeremy and Gareth discuss the ongoing challenges emanating from the Middle East. Unlike last year's tariff news, where the Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) trade often won out, it takes two to TACO in a war like this - and Iran so far is not helping.Markets have been stung, although the US Dollar is once again the "safe haven" asset, making the inflationary impact worse for non-USA countries. Those inflationary risks abound, and the independence of central banks in this critical period will once again be an issue.Equity markets appear to be less worried than bond investors, although this could change, depending crucially on how long the current impasse persists in the all-important Strait of Hormuz.When the oil price is more volatile than bitcoin, you know we're in interesting times...
Transcribe →Week Ending 6/03/2026: "Epic Fury" vs "Global Economic Resilience"
Mar 600:14:50Tap to summarizeThis week, Jeremy and Gareth discuss the obvious (and only) story that really matters - the US and Israeli attacks on Iran. What is obvious is that America's "complete control of the airspace" has not resulted in reopening the Strait of Hormuz - small Iranian missiles and drones remain a problem. Less obvious is that America's "no limits on availability of munitions" presumably leaves Ukraine's supply at risk, and Taiwan less protected. Oil prices are up by 25-30%, and inflation will follow unless this is very short-lived. Bond yields are rising globally. A regime-changed Iran (with free-flowing cheap oil for the world) would be a wonderful outcome, but is currently very far from assured. Jeremy explains the importance of Kharg Island...let's hope it stays out of the headlines.
Transcribe →Gold $5,000, Silver $100, Trump 2.0 & 6 Investment Themes for 2026
Jan 2300:14:37Tap to summarizeThe Market Call returns to analyse market volatility, geopolitical tensions, and the impact of the Trump administration on the global economy and markets. Jeremy and Gareth explore U.S. GDP hitting 4.4%, and a historic precious metals boom with gold nearing $5,000 and silver approaching $100 an ounce. Discover key insights on the U.S. real economy, bond yields, and six critical investment themes for the year ahead, including the Space Economy, Robotics, and the "Great Rotation" of capital. Key Topics & Highlights:Geopolitics & Trump 2.0: Analysis of the Trump administration's aggressive stances toward NATO and Europe, and its impact on global relations.Market Volatility: How the "Davos circus" and recent fears have driven investors into a risk-off mode, with strategies for navigating the uncertainty.The Commodities Boom: Discussion on the dramatic ascent of precious metals, driven by a weakening dollar and rising geopolitical insurance premiums.The Inflation vs. Growth Debate: An exploration of a hot U.S. economy (near 5% growth) versus moderating Western consumer price inflation, and its bond market implications.Six Themes for ’26: A breakdown of top investment themes for the year:Robotics and Autonomous Driving.The Space Economy.The Rise of the Chinese Consumer.Healthcare Catch-up.Energy will join the Commodities Party.The Ongoing "Great Rotation" (Capital moving from Dollar assets/Treasuries to gold and other geographies). Never any kind of advice, for information purposes only. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. Don't forget to subscribe and leave a review to help us reach more investors navigating the 2026 markets!
Transcribe →Week Ending 19/12/25 - Have central banks done enough to slay inflation and allow rates to fall in 2026?
Dec 1900:14:48Tap to summarizeIn the last episode of 2025, Gareth and Jeremy discuss the significant events of the week, including volatile equities, what precious metals prices are telling us, and the ups and downs of oil prices, with the US Navy on patrol offshore of Venezuela. There has been a data dump of macro numbers and rate decisions, and an important decision by Europe's leaders not to seize frozen Russian assets. Overall, the critical question for investors in 2026 is whether central banks have done enough to tame inflation and pave the way for lower rates. Jeremy again highlights Japan as a source of risk to the bullish scenario. Next week will be quiet, but always worth noting who might be sneaking out RNS's last thing on Christmas Eve. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.
Transcribe →Week Ending 12/12/2025 - Real Asset Hassett, a hawkish cut & mega-cap hostile M&A deals. It will be fine!
Dec 1200:14:43Tap to summarizeJeremy and Gareth discuss the main events of the last week in financial markets. The primary focus is on the mixed messaging from the Federal Reserve with its interest rate decision described as a hawkish cut. Jeremy describes how we might interpret this move, which is now signalling only one further rate cut in 2026. Kevin "The Real Asset" Hassett is widely expected to be announced as Jay Powell's successor in January. Further, this has also been widely interpreted as allowing inflation expectations to run wild, thereby impacting the prices of gold and silver. However, the Fed decision makers are also looking at their responsibilities for employment and the functioning of financial markets. To this end, you might be mistaken that they have restarted QE. The move to inject liquidity into the short-term money markets might not be strictly QE, but it does expand the Fed's balance sheet, at least in the short term.Jeremy points to Japan as the source of the market dysfunction that policymakers might be preempting via this (temporary) injection. In US megacap land, news comes of a $1.5 trillion IPO for SpaceX, and a busy week for the Ellison family. Larry Ellison's Oracle highlighted the risks around the AI data centre build-out, but also his son and other high-profile backers were behind the $108bn hostile bid for Warner Bros. Jeremy highlights the precedent for such giant hostile bids, and it is an interesting list! Surely nothing to see here. Looking ahead, there will be further evidence next week of the weakening US jobs market.The events in Venezuela and the Ukraine peace process will also be centre stage. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.
Transcribe →Week Ending 05/12/2025 - Watching the Bitcoin Barometer
Dec 500:14:12Tap to summarizeThis week Jeremy and Gareth discuss mainly the apparent confusion of bitcoin falling while other “inflation hedge” or “real asset” measures like gold and silver are at or close to all-time highs. Jeremy has four or five reasons why this might be the case - all of which highlight the usefulness of bitcoin’s “always on” trading 24/7 as a barometer or investor opinion.Macro markets have helped Rachel Reeves avoid short-term repercussions of the Budget. Next week’s Fed rate decision may be overshadowed by gyrations around the potential seizure of Russian monies - and what that means for the value of the dollar in the eyes of anyone who might one day upset the West.
Transcribe →Week Ending 21/11/2025 - Mansplaining the Budget & UK Housing
Nov 2800:14:54Tap to summarizeAs Americans took a break to overindulge on Thanksgiving, we Brits were forced to listen to our government explain how they had overindulged recently and how we must now pay for it. This week, Dowgate's three wise men mansplain the Budget and its implications. Jeremy and Gareth are joined by Progressive building and construction analyst and Property Week columnist, Alastair Stewart, to offer his views on the likely impact on the UK housing and housebuilding markets following Rachel Reeves' second Budget. Spoiler alert, he's bullish. Looking ahead, Jeremy expects an easing of financial conditions from the US as, among other things, the White House considers ways to improve the Republicans' chances in next year's Congressional midterms. Brought to you by Progressive Equity
Transcribe →Week Ending 21/11/2025 - Markets are confused - Bitcoin is the canary in the coalmine
Nov 2400:14:54Tap to summarizeThis week Jeremy and Gareth start by talking about the market changing its mind twice, and quite materially. The positive reaction to the US government's reopening was shortlived, as was the delight at NVIDIA's blowout earnings on Wednesday. In both cases, prices were boosted by good news, only to drift - in NVIDIA's case by 8% top-to-bottom in the course of just a day. Markets always move, but these are huge deltas on some very large amounts of capital. Lots of things are overlapping so discerning worries about AI from worries about the economic outlook is almost impossible. Our traditional reminder to keep one eye on Japan, where 10-year bond yields are soaring and the currency dropping...beware the carry trade unwinding with a bump. In the UK, we're all waiting to see which of the many-mooted taxes will be inflicted on us - the chances of a real surprise look pretty small. Progressive client Gear4Music delivered a strong H1 result, perhaps demonstrating the resilience and operational gearing that we've been discussing may be a feature of a large number of UK micro-caps. They have weathered Brexit, Covid, supply chain pressure and now consumer pain - with costs kept lean and strong operational efficiency, any recovery will flow straight to the bottom line - which is exactly what G4M has demonstrated. Next week we have US retail sales and durable goods data, and FOMC members with a number of speeches in the diary. Confusion and contradiction remain, as the US economy sees Wall Street (mainly the Magnificent 7) whose AI and capex-fuelled world is growing rapidly, contrast sharply with Main Street where the average American is feeling real pain. Should interest rates be set to rein in tech-bro exuberance and gently deflate a potential bubble, or to give some cost-of-living relief to the down-trodden masses ?
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