Podcast
The Market Call
Hosted by Progressive Equity Research · EN
A periodic summary of major macro events, market themes and selected UK company-specific news.
13episodes
Episodes
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Week Ending 14/11/2025 - When does the UK get a government shutdown?
Nov 1400:14:55Tap to summarizeJeremy and Gareth discuss the week's events, with a greater focus on the UK, following the Reeves bombshell overnight that she has pivoted away from her previous indication that she would raise income tax for the first time in 50 years at the upcoming Budget on November 26th. This suggestion across most front pages today has thrown the gilts and the value of the pound into some turmoil. Meanwhile, in the US, the government is reopening, but to the realisation that continuing to borrow without spending has exacerbated tight dollar liquidity, as evidenced by the sharp fall in Bitcoin. We are entering a more volatile market phase amid the absence of official US government data on October's employment and inflation. Essentially, investors must fly blind through a period of stormy weather. What could go wrong?In the UK equity market, despite the politics, things are looking incrementally better, with the IPO market showing signs of fully opening up. Gareth highlights FDM and Jeremy 4imprint as examples of how to cope with difficult times and manage expectations. Both companies had inline or marginal upgrades, and their share prices responded strongly. Looking ahead, with the US remaining quiet, it's about inflation data from the UK and Japan, both high and sticky, and increasingly problematic. Investors in the UK will be on the latest developments from the rumour mill at No. 11. In the US, investors will be looking for unofficial signs that the authorities might be prepared to loosen conditions to ease the impact of the shutdown. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.
Transcribe →Week Ending 07/11/2025 - Fireworks postponed
Nov 700:14:55Tap to summarizeThis week Jeremy and Gareth discuss a relatively calm week in the markets - China and the USA have reached a deal of sorts, the USD is slightly stronger but not so strong as to cause trouble elsewhere. The Fed is confused (and will be careful, likely meaning rates staying higher) because America remains in Federal shutdown and data is scarce. Still, US equity markets remain robust, and Elon Musk is rejoicing at his trillion-dollar deal. The UK, however, is still quaking at the impending budget, with so many possible taxes discussed that they can't all be needed...there may even be relief once the bad news is out. Trainline's results looked solid, but Tim Martin at Wetherspoon used a trading update as a platform to berate the government on everything from corporate regulation to nuclear power.Next week - and perhaps many weeks to come - will see the US Supreme Court deliberate the legality of Trump's tariffs...so this week's lack of fireworks may be a postponement rather than a cancellation. What will happen when Liberation Day meets its own Judgement Day...?
Transcribe →Week Ending 17/10/25 - Gold, a dollar debasement trade or a bubble?
Oct 17Tap to summarizeThis week, Jeremy and Gareth consider Trump's quick switch from declaring peace in the Middle East to opening a (new) trade war with China - which has almost as quickly subsided, with the Trump/Xi meeting now "back on". Jeremy highlights the ongoing strength of gold - FOMO bubble or long-term trend driven by debasement of currencies ? And the great rewards of being a gold miner - with unparalleled revenue per ounce, and costs of drilling and transport (often oil-based) in decline. Bitcoin hasn't participated in the recent gold rally - although over a longer timeframe than the last few months, it has hugely outperformed. Perhaps both can be safe havens in a world of unaffordable government debt and spiralling-down currencies ? Meanwhile equity markets have been relatively stable, although slightly spooked by the current pressure on US lenders, driven by greater-than-apparent losses flowing from a number of insolvencies that shouldn't have rippled the way they have. Gareth talks about Gear4Music, Sanderson Design Group and Oxford Metrics, all of which this week have highlighted decent trading (or better) along with the benefit of much cost-control, in each case well received by investors. Next week we have Chinese growth data and UK inflation which could exceed 4% for the first time in over a year. The end of the week will bring US inflation (they're still publishing despite the government shutdown) - anything much above 3.0% will both rattle markets and possibly cost someone at the Bureau of Labor and Statistics their job. Finally, don't forget Japan...Friday also brings their latest inflation print; as always we better hope there's nothing too surprising.
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